Coronavirus Thread

[SystonFox]

8 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Seriously?

 

Cos you sound like a hypochondriac germophobe.

 

(Edited because autocorrect changed germophobe to homophobe )

Genuinely I’m not. I work in healthcare so take great pride in infection control that’s all.

 

i don’t think it would be a bad thing for it to become normal behaviour to wear a mask in public or at mass gathered events. I understand and appreciate it’s a major ball ache but the last thing I want at a gig is someone’s spittle over my watered down pint of carling in a plastic cup

[Heathrow fox]

10 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

The only solution will be for people to retire earlier. If someone retires at 50 instead of 65, they create 15 years worth of employment. What we're doing at the moment is increasing the length of education to keep the unemployment figures down, which is the wrong end of work cycle.

Interesting take and I agree with you.However we would have to live like a monk during our working lives,just so we could live like monks in our potential 50 year retirement.You simply couldn’t build up a big enough nest egg + be able to pay off mortgages have kids etc in that time scale.The entire system would have to change.

[joachim1965]

1 hour ago, yorkie1999 said:

What’s the stats of dying from falling over and breaking your neck, bet it’s more than 6 a day

that's probably what those people died from, but as they tested positive within the last 28 days , it's a covid death.

How many are actually dying of covid related complications, very few.

[joachim1965]

15 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

Interesting take and I agree with you.However we would have to live like a monk during our working lives,just so we could live like monks in our potential 50 year retirement.You simply couldn’t build up a big enough nest egg + be able to pay off mortgages have kids etc in that time scale.The entire system would have to change.

it would, what we need is a global reset.

[Guest Harrydc]

How anyone can want to just 'live' with the virus is confusing to me. People still want to be social distancing in 5 years time? For the short term to help eradicate the virus is fine, but we can't live like this forever, it's not human. 

[Lionator]

8 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

How anyone can want to just 'live' with the virus is confusing to me. People still want to be social distancing in 5 years time? For the short term to help eradicate the virus is fine, but we can't live like this forever, it's not human. 

Ultimately there will be a successful vaccine in the short to mid term future and it'll become endemic like any other bug like this. We'll mostly be protected from it but there'll be small outbreaks from time to time in those who aren't vaccinated or in those who it just doesn't work in, but we'll only need 70% to be vaccinated for it to basically disappear. 

 

If there wasn't a prospect of a vaccine or treatments then we would just have to get on with life like they have done during every other infectious disease outbreak in history. 

[Dunge]

I think SimFox makes some good points, but also that his timing’s out. I’d agree that we can’t expect to stay in lockdown forever, and that at some point people will want normal life back regardless. It’s clear that the measures and the virus are walloping the economy. Also, let’s be honest - people don’t like wearing face masks; most of those who are complying are doing so out of duty, to the science and other citizens.

 

I generally back playing the percentages in this case. It’s true that there are no guarantees about the future here, including what a vaccine might look like or when it might arrive. But I’d argue that it’s worth holding off and complying until at least next Easter:

 

- While not certain, there is a strong chance of at least one vaccine coming through by then. At the very least, we’ll know whether something is on the cusp of rollout, even if it’s not there already.

 

- There have already been advances in knowledge of how to treat this. The knowledge on this front will continue to grow, since there are many trials happening around the world. In particular, one about Vitamin D drugs needs further exploration as that could prove vital. But they need time to be completed.

 

- We’ll know more about the effects of Long Covid, how far it goes on, whether it clears up at all, and whether it’s a mere afterthought, the tip of the iceberg or somewhere in between.

 

- We’ll know more about reinfection rates, how long immunity may last, and be able to plan accordingly for it. We may get news on whether someone who gets it twice gets it significantly less badly second time. (A hope of mine for the long term).

 

- We’re about to move into the winter months, meaning that the virus is likely to get more aggressive in terms of infectiousness. If we are going to cast off the shackles, this is precisely the wrong time of year to start. Moreover, there needs to be consideration for healthcare workers, and landing them with a new, massive spike as winter rolls up would be horrible. Remember we expect their treatment if we get the virus badly.

 

- Postulation somewhat, but I remember early on much being made of “viral load”, i.e. it’s not necessarily set in stone how you’d react to this, but it also depends on how much of the virus you’re exposed to, and in what time period. As such, if viral load is still a consideration (and I’ve seen nothing to say it isn’t), it could result in a higher percentage death rate than would otherwise be the case. Short version: More people could die who would have otherwise survived. And that’s before we reach the potential of hospital overcrowding.

- Although it’s very stable in nature (which is partly what’s causing the problem), waiting does give the virus the chance to weaken through mutation.

 

 

I do appreciate people’s frustrations. More than that, I appreciate the damage lockdown is doing to the economy and to people’s livelihoods and lives. I accept that I’ve had it lucky on that front - the virus and the lockdown haven’t had the greatest of effects on me and I’ve been able to continue my normal job from home. So to an extent it’s easy for me to say all this. But I genuinely believe it’s worth it, on balance, to stick with it. To stick with this fluctuating lighter lockdown that’s around at the moment. At least for now. To give the experts a proper chance to help and to innovate.
 

Some people don’t like the war analogy, but I find it helpful. Granted it’s not an ideology or a country that we’re fighting, but I think it helps to forge a mindset. It’s a mindset that things have to be different for a while, but that if we stick it out, the measures imparted on us won’t be around forever. That we’re not simply standing by while our freedoms are chopped, but instead we’re lending that power. And we’ll have helped to get more people through the other side of it than if we’d carried on regardless.

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 hours ago, SystonFox said:

I don’t mind it never ending in that sense. I don’t want you coughing over me at any time. I’m by no means a hypochondriac germophobe but wearing masks and gloves to help stop spread infections sounds great to me. Be it SARS, Covid19, AIDS or the common cold I’m all for it.

If we wear masks all the time, would this not effect our immunity to things like the common cold? Like don't we need some germs even if it's just a small amount so our body can fight them in the future etc. Genuine question and I have no idea on the answer.

[leicsmac]

40 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

If we wear masks all the time, would this not effect our immunity to things like the common cold? Like don't we need some germs even if it's just a small amount so our body can fight them in the future etc. Genuine question and I have no idea on the answer.

Theoretically, probably. Practically, there's been no studies done on a large scale for such a thing so who knows?

 

Personally I'm all for the idea of mask usage when something like Covid hits the streets because at it very likely helps and at the very very least it doesn't hurt - folks wear them over here often when the air quality sometimes gets bad too. I think, however, that it's unnecessary to have mask usage going on outside of major events like this one because most viruses that masks stop don't present a massive health hazard.

[Lionator]

Fantastic post @Dunge. There is a middle ground between taking sensible precautions (mask-wearing, social distancing, staying home when you're ill) but also trying to keep life as normal as possible. Unfortunately it's 2020 so taking a middle ground is impossible. You either have to have one strong opinion one way or the other. 

 

 

[yorkie1999]

10 hours ago, joachim1965 said:

that's probably what those people died from, but as they tested positive within the last 28 days , it's a covid death.

How many are actually dying of covid related complications, very few.

Apparently, no one knows, but I bet if you did a count of how many people are in icu’s and take that away from how many people come out, you wouldn’t be far off.

Edited 12 September 2020 by yorkie1999

[yorkie1999]

6 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

If we wear masks all the time, would this not effect our immunity to things like the common cold? Like don't we need some germs even if it's just a small amount so our body can fight them in the future etc. Genuine question and I have no idea on the answer.

Yes, that’s why your gran left the chip pan out full of chip fat and your mum sent you to school when you had a cough. 
What I’ve noticed from wearing a mask is after a while my nose gets a bit runny and it feels like I’m breathing through a snorkel, but I do get a bit of asthma so any sort of restriction and I do feel it. I’m not bothered what anyone says, breathing exhaled carbon dioxide back in, which you must do a bit, is not good for you.

[String fellow]

Tbf, I don't think I've lost all sense of reason. The fact is that thousands of British lives were lost in Spring this year because a national lock-down was introduced far too slowly. When it was, the death rate slowly began to shrink. It seems to me that it would be entirely reasonable to re-introduce similar measures this Autumn, if that is what it would take to stop the terrible suffering and deaths of thousands more.

As regards people in Africa who 'get along just fine' with their communicable diseases, the fact is that the average lifespan in Africa is 14 years less than the global average, with over half dying from those diseases in some regions. And many thousands of children in Africa die every year from Malaria. Is that really getting along just fine?

Edited 12 September 2020 by String fellow

[Nalis]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

Fantastic post @Dunge. There is a middle ground between taking sensible precautions (mask-wearing, social distancing, staying home when you're ill) but also trying to keep life as normal as possible. Unfortunately it's 2020 so taking a middle ground is impossible. You either have to have one strong opinion one way or the other. 

 

 

Maybe its just me but to be fair most people on here seem to be in the middle ground. Its only the loudest from either side of the coin that draw the most attention / reaction.

[st albans fox]

I wonder if the approach on coverings and the rule of six (ie. some extra restrictions) is also to try to drop the flu infection rate this winter - presumably if we are managing to control covid then we will also drop the flu occurrences too ??  The govt must be thinking that a countrywide covid infection spike on the back of an active flu season would be a disaster worse than March/April/may 

[fuchsntf]

I am sitting on the fence until 2025....

 

Zager & Evans seen it all....

[BKLFox]

9 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

If we wear masks all the time, would this not effect our immunity to things like the common cold? Like don't we need some germs even if it's just a small amount so our body can fight them in the future etc. Genuine question and I have no idea on the answer.

Very true, I believe in this new, & I’m talking pre-Covid here, sterilised world we live our immune systems seem to be getting weaker and we are getting more reliant on medicines to get us out of a pickle which in turn is weakening the effectiveness of these drugs also.

I look at my sister when she had a baby and the face & hands of the kid we’re wiped continually along with everything he touched, I’m not saying we should all go back to sucking on garden worms and licking swing chains but we need to ease off on trying to kill off anything that isn’t surgical clean.

Its a hard thing to do granted as people are getting ultra rich off the back of cleaning products etc but we’re doing ourselves out of self protection being reliant on chemicals that kill both good and bad bacteria’s that’s live naturally in our bodies.

[Col city fan]

20 hours ago, Line-X said:

Sneezes would actually be indicative of a common cold and a way to differentiate from Covid19.

Oh yeah, and who’s gonna take the chance!?

Thats the point 

[SpacedX]

22 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

Oh yeah, and who’s gonna take the chance!?

Thats the point 

I'm not with you. Sneezing and a runny nose is symptomatic of a common cold not COVID19. 

[simFox]

2 hours ago, String fellow said:

Tbf, I don't think I've lost all sense of reason. The fact is that thousands of British lives were lost in Spring this year because a national lock-down was introduced far too slowly. When it was, the death rate slowly began to shrink. It seems to me that it would be entirely reasonable to re-introduce similar measures this Autumn, if that is what it would take to stop the terrible suffering and deaths of thousands more.

As regards people in Africa who 'get along just fine' with their communicable diseases, the fact is that the average lifespan in Africa is 14 years less than the global average, with over half dying from those diseases in some regions. And many thousands of children in Africa die every year from Malaria. Is that really getting along just fine?

Well my wife's grandmother lived till she was 90 (African) mine died in their 80's, my grampy in his 50's from a heart condition. I doubt the record keeping is the same, but the biggest cause of death is poverty and access to health care. The two exact things that lockdown will achieve and the reason it will lead to more deaths than covid.

 

People live longer when they aren't in poverty, so don't put them in it, for all our sakes. They also look after the environment better etc. You see, long term health and plastic waste becomes a bit less important when you're trying to survive day to day! (Food and shelter).

 

The only time this will be over will be when it's no longer news worthy. Then it will just become another yearly statistic like everything else.

 

I had malaria last week, (p.falciparium, the deadly one). Was gone in 3 days. I had a colleague who died, because unfortunately it came out while he was in the UK and they failed to recognise the symptoms and treat it, out here is the first thing they check for.

 

I can't think of anything worse than another great depression. People should read up it and see where the breakdown of the economy will take us. And if we were to end up like that, covid will still be with us!

 

Edit, regarding the thousands that died. Can you just spend a few minutes looking up the 2017-18 UK flu outbreak where around 50k excess deaths occurred. 

Edited 12 September 2020 by simFox

[yorkie1999]

15 hours ago, Heathrow fox said:

Interesting take and I agree with you.However we would have to live like a monk during our working lives,just so we could live like monks in our potential 50 year retirement.You simply couldn’t build up a big enough nest egg + be able to pay off mortgages have kids etc in that time scale.The entire system would have to change.

It would need a change but there has been and going to be a pretty big one in the future. I doubt the banks are going to be dishing out many 500 grand mortgages for much longer. How much are the government going to have to throw at the jobless market over the next ten years. I don’t think the reality of the situation has sunk in just yet because of the furlough.

[iniesta]

Estimated survival rates based on European data. 

 

[yorkie1999]

8 minutes ago, iniesta said:

Estimated survival rates based on European data. 

 

You’ve also got to take into account the odds of catching it in the first place, which is about 1000-1 or 0.1%. So the chances of first catching it and then dying from it must be extremely slim.

[Col city fan]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

I'm not with you. Sneezing and a runny nose is symptomatic of a common cold not COVID19. 

You’re going to let people come into work sneezing all over the place? At the moment?

I know the rules mate, let’s see if they are implemented 

[Lionator]

Good news in all the gloom. Whatever you think this is the way the pandemic will subside and we'll get back to normal. 

 

https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/trial-resumes