Coronavirus Thread

[Sol thewall Bamba]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Data on pcr retesting  shows the lft’s give 20% false positives 

 

if only there was a system to reimburse those (and their families) who have to isolate then we could get a big uptake on these LFT’s and that’s the way forward to open up everything.  Of course human nature would provide a sizeable percentage of people who would actually try to become infected if the compensation was sufficient to act as an encouragement to be tested. 

So when we get back in the grounds and have to take lfts to gain access, there's a chance that you'll just get a false positive and then have to isolate for two weeks. 

 

Brilliant. 

[WigstonWanderer]

2 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

So when we get back in the grounds and have to take lfts to gain access, there's a chance that you'll just get a false positive and then have to isolate for two weeks. 

 

Brilliant. 

Sounds like it’s a very small chance. Also wouldn’t you just get a confirmatory PCR test to get the all clear.

Edited 15 April 2021 by WigstonWanderer

[FLAN]

Won’t most people have had at least one jab by then?

[Otis]

15 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

So when we get back in the grounds and have to take lfts to gain access, there's a chance that you'll just get a false positive and then have to isolate for two weeks. 

 

Brilliant. 

Having paid £40 for a ticket you can't use. 

That's going to go down well.

[Otis]

14 minutes ago, FLAN said:

Won’t most people have had at least one jab by then?

Exactly. So no need for any of this. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, FLAN said:

Won’t most people have had at least one jab by then?

 

2 hours ago, Otis said:

Exactly. So no need for any of this. 

That ain't gonna stop it. It'll be 'but we need both doses', then once everyone has had two doses it'll be 'but you can still spread it', then it'll be 'but long covid'.

 

Some people are gonna have this mindset for years to come now.

[Otis]

21 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

That ain't gonna stop it. It'll be 'but we need both doses', then once everyone has had two doses it'll be 'but you can still spread it', then it'll be 'but long covid'.

 

Some people are gonna have this mindset for years to come now.

... to people who have had the vaccine. 

[Happy Fox]

Pardon my ignorance but why couldn’t they make the one jab effective enough rather than two doses?

[yorkie1999]

30 minutes ago, Otis said:

... to people who have had the vaccine. 

Yes, because the vaccine's only going to last a year, then we need to start again.

[SpacedX]

31 minutes ago, Happy Fox said:

Pardon my ignorance but why couldn’t they make the one jab effective enough rather than two doses?

In the case of some vaccines, a single dose doesn’t stimulate a sufficiently strong immune response. Many vaccines, including those given to children, require more than one dose. Two jabs for the Pfizer-BioNTech or the Oxford-AZ vaccine is not unusual.  It's called Prime Boost Regimen. The first dose of the vaccine initiates the process of building up protection. The second dose works to significantly reinforce this protection mobilising the cells again to respond in an even stronger way, the result being a much better and hopefully prolonged immune response that retains memory. The long-lived antibodies and memory cells (T lymphocytes and B lymphocytes) produced by giving people multiple doses means the body is better trained to fight the specific disease-causing organism, building up memory of the pathogen so as to rapidly fight it if and when exposed in the future.

 

Individuals have great biodiversity and varying efficiency of their immune systems, so the aim is to get the highest proportion possible of a very broad range of people in the population to have the maximum response and that’s why it’s important to have both shots of the vaccine.

 

People should not assume that they have immunity/protection after only receiving the first shot. 

 

 

Edited 15 April 2021 by Line-X

[Happy Fox]

11 minutes ago, Line-X said:

In the case of some vaccines, a single dose doesn’t stimulate a sufficiently strong immune response. Many vaccines, including those given to children, require more than one dose. Two jabs for the Pfizer-BioNTech or the Oxford-AZ vaccine is not unusual.  It's called Prime Boost Regimen. The first dose of the vaccine initiates the process of building up protection. The second dose works to significantly reinforce this protection mobilising the cells again to respond in an even stronger way, the result being a much better and hopefully prolonged immune response that retains memory. The long-lived antibodies and memory cells (T lymphocytes and B lymphocytes) produced by giving people multiple doses means the body is better trained to fight the specific disease-causing organism, building up memory of the pathogen so as to rapidly fight it if and when exposed in the future.

 

Individuals have great biodiversity and varying efficiency of their immune systems, so the aim is to get the highest proportion possible of a very broad range of people in the population to have the maximum response and that’s why it’s important to have both shots of the vaccine.

 

People should not assume that they have immunity/protection after only receiving the first shot. 

 

 

Very informative response thanks mate!

[Guest Harrydc]

The BBC have today stated that 18% of rapid flow tests are false positives. 

 

If they're admitting to that it's probably a lot more. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56750460

Edited 15 April 2021 by Harrydc

[RowlattsFox]

35 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Yes, because the vaccine's only going to last a year, then we need to start again.

Really hope vaccinating the vulnerable proves to be enough because I think you'll struggle to convince under 30s or maybe older to get vaccinated again if nothing really changed. Other than through mandating it. 

 

I can accept the lateral flow tests being occasionally inaccurate, when used in community testing as the aim is finding asymptomatic cases. Bit of a ballache if you get a false positive and have to isolate until its confirmed by the PCR but shit happens. Different story if the PCR tests also throw up many false positives. How many Lateral Flow Tests are false negatives? 

 

However if LFTs are going to be used for events where people have spent good money, travelled distances etc then they need to be more reliable. 

 

 

 

[st albans fox]

18 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The BBC have today stated that 18% of rapid flow tests are false positives. 

 

If they're admitting to that it's probably a lot more. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56750460

oh harry, you need to let it go at some point.  don't let it push you to the point where it will affect your trust in loads of things - eg. you wont be able to get on a plane. (and its 18% of positives are false, not 18% of tests)

 

this 20% false positives on positive  LFT results is a bit of a problem as others have pointed out. 

 

the current protocol is that you have to take a walk in lateral flow test the day before the event. then you take your own test on the day of the event and again five days afterwards.

 

if we look at current ONS data, the virus is infecting around 1 in 400.  so around 85 people in the full KP crowd would test positive the day before and of those, 15 would find out on the day of the event via their home LFT that they weren't actually positive. i would expect anyone positive to arrange a PCR within a day but the corrective negative result wouldn't be available until the day after the event at the earliest. 

 

so are clubs going to commit to refunding those who test positive or are isolating and unable to attend ??

 

and of more interest is how on earth 30.000 people are going to access walk in LFT's the day before a fixture. (especially a Saturday or weekday where people are unable to get to a test until the evening).  just cant see the current protocols working when scaled up.

Edited 15 April 2021 by st albans fox

[SpacedX]

21 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The BBC have today stated that 18% of rapid flow tests are false positives. 

 

If they're admitting to that it's probably a lot more. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56750460

What do you mean 'admitting'? - you think the BBC is culpable? 

 

My main concern about lateral flow testing as I've consistently said over the last few weeks, is that although it's very good at detecting cases of a high viral load, is doesn't necessarily tell you if you aren't carrying the virus or at risk of infecting others and may miss a worrying proportion of asymptomatic cases leading to a false sense of security. 

 

I absolutely agree with the suggestion that it is grossly irresponsible of the government to roll out a mass testing programme based on "inadequate evidence" of its effectiveness. Particularly as we continue relaxing restrictions. 

[Stivo]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

if we look at current ONS data, the virus is infecting around 1 in 400.  so around 85 people in the full KP crowd would test positive the day before and of those, 15 would find out on the day of the event via their home LFT that they weren't actually positive. i would expect anyone positive to arrange a PCR within a day but the corrective negative result wouldn't be available until the day after the event at the earliest.

Nice analysis.  What that means is that the false positive rate of the tests is actually very low, 15 false positives out of your 32000  tests which is approx 1 in 2000 or 0.05%.   
 

These statements are all true.

 

you are fairly unlikely to have covid ( currently 1 in 450)

 

you are unlikely to get a false positive if you don’t have covid and take a test (1 in 2000)

 

In the unlikely event that you test positive you are very likely to have covid 85% certain currently.

 

the first and third statements will vary as the prevalence changes.

Edited 15 April 2021 by Stivo

[CosbehFox]

Anyone else underwhelmed in how they feel regards the latest relaxations? Probably got me down more than actually making me feel better. 

 

Feel a bit like you've wait to watch a game of footy and it's a friendly or a Under 23s game 

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Anyone else underwhelmed in how they feel regards the latest relaxations? Probably got me down more than actually making me feel better. 

 

Feel a bit like you've wait to watch a game of footy and it's a friendly or a Under 23s game 

I thought a bit like this, latest lot of restrictions didn't really mean a lot to me other than going to the gym a couple of times a week.

 

However, since saying that I'm now going on the lash 3 times in 7 days, so I've surprisingly perked up. Life is what you make it at the end of the day

[Manini]

33 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Anyone else underwhelmed in how they feel regards the latest relaxations? Probably got me down more than actually making me feel better. 

 

Feel a bit like you've wait to watch a game of footy and it's a friendly or a Under 23s game 

I do dislike the idea of having to book to go to the pub, and it’s also still a bit chilly at the minute to comfortably sit outside by the time I’ve finished work, but I’m glad they’re open and they can trade, for their own sakes more than anything. 
 

Being able to meet up with friends and family outside is also nice but it’s still far from normality. I think the 17th May easing will feel like a bigger milestone and will feel a lot more like normal times, similar to last summer. 

Edited 15 April 2021 by Manini

[bovril]

Just now, Manini said:

I do hate the idea of having to book to go to the pub, and it’s also still a bit chilly at the minute to comfortably sit outside by the time I’ve finished work, but I’m glad they’re open and they can trade, for their own sakes more than anything. 
 

Being able to meet up with friends and family outside is also nice but it’s still far from normality. I think the 17th May easing will feel like a bigger milestone and will feel a lot more like normal times, similar to last summer. 

If you have to book, it's not a pub. 

[RowlattsFox]

14 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Anyone else underwhelmed in how they feel regards the latest relaxations? Probably got me down more than actually making me feel better. 

 

Feel a bit like you've wait to watch a game of footy and it's a friendly or a Under 23s game 

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how busy places are once the novelty of having a pint again wears off. It will need a few weeks of good weather to keep people going to sit outside.

 

I just can't be arsed with any of the hassle, queuing, pre booking etc. 

[yorkie1999]

9 minutes ago, bovril said:

If you have to book, it's not a pub. 

If you have to sit outside with a cold drink in the freezing cold it's not a pub either, it's a park bench with a can of white lightning!

[KrefelderFox666]

16 minutes ago, Manini said:

I do hate the idea of having to book to go to the pub, and it’s also still a bit chilly at the minute to comfortably sit outside by the time I’ve finished work, but I’m glad they’re open and they can trade, for their own sakes more than anything. 
 

Being able to meet up with friends and family outside is also nice but it’s still far from normality. I think the 17th May easing will feel like a bigger milestone and will feel a lot more like normal times, similar to last summer. 

Not all do it but those that don't is obviously a gamble as you might have to walk miles to find one with space or stand in a queue for hours.

[yorkie1999]

8 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how busy places are once the novelty of having a pint again wears off. It will need a few weeks of good weather to keep people going to sit outside.

 

I just can't be arsed with any of the hassle, queuing, pre booking etc. 

Monday, the pub up from me was rammed, apparently night ended with a fight and the police turning up, Tuesday, about 20 outside, last night 4. I think the reality of sitting with a cold pint, wrapped up in a winter coat has kicked in. 

[SpacedX]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Monday, the pub up from me was rammed, apparently night ended with a fight and the police turning up

So normality has returned.