Coronavirus Thread

[Otis]

4 hours ago, Line-X said:

It's regularly acknowledged by the government, but of course they are inclined to sweep the more acute damage and social cost under the carpet - it's the Tories. Remember though, this administration resisted the second lockdown.

And indeed they are - but to be clear, I am referring to science which is axiomatic, not scientists. You seem to be alleging that because people that work within these fields are paid to do so, then they must therefore have vested interests or some nefarious agenda. Again, this has been done to death on here. 

 

 

Not at all. 

All I'm saying is they are being asked to look at this particular issue. Not the overall effects. 

 

Anyway., it's cup final day ⚽️

[SpacedX]

28 minutes ago, Otis said:

Anyway., it's cup final day ⚽️

Is it? Thanks for that - had completely slipped my mind.

[Corky]

Hopefully putting India on the red list eventually plus surge testing will mean that we have an initial spike that won't get out of control.

 

Again, people have been told to act responsibly and take measures to stop the spread. If you've travelled internationally and come back, get tested regularly. Self-isolate until the all-clear.

 

We have worked wonders to get infection rates, deaths, hospitalisations down, making huge sacrifices. There will be a lot of anger if other variants, from a long distance, set us back. People were vilified for going for open air walks a few miles from home- this is on another level. 

[Crinklyfox]

If a recent report from SAGE is to be believed then the Indian variant may be 50% more transmissible than the dominant Kent variant in the UK.  I'm including a link to the report.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf

 

Point 9 within the report advises that if this additional transmissibility is correct, then opening up tomorrow would lead to a substantial surge in hospitalisations similar to previous surges; further opening up on 21 June could lead to greater surges in hospitalisations than previous.

 

I have a feeling that the PM may have had this data when he announced last week that the opening up on 21 June may not be able to go ahead as planned.

[yorkie1999]

On 15/05/2021 at 10:34, FoxesDeb said:

You probably already know this, but try to have a nap, I've heard many people say it can make a big difference to reducing any side effects. Obviously set an alarm though, just in case 

How would they know that it can make a big difference?

[DennisNedry]

3 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

If a recent report from SAGE is to be believed then the Indian variant may be 50% more transmissible than the dominant Kent variant in the UK.  I'm including a link to the report.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf

 

Point 9 within the report advises that if this additional transmissibility is correct, then opening up tomorrow would lead to a substantial surge in hospitalisations similar to previous surges; further opening up on 21 June could lead to greater surges in hospitalisations than previous.

 

I have a feeling that the PM may have had this data when he announced last week that the opening up on 21 June may not be able to go ahead as planned.

It also says "This means that there may be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection, though data on this are still mixed. 11. Any such reduction is likely to affect protection against infection more than protection against severe disease or death.

There is not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant. The number of hospitalisations remains low in the affected areas, though this could be because the number of infections has only recently increased."

 

We'll have to watch it closely over the next few weeks, but if the vaccinations remain effective at keeping hospitalisations and deaths at the very low level they currently are, there's nothing to worry about. Cases alone are not much of a problem, especially as the vaccination programme reaches the rest of the adult population.

 

[FoxesDeb]

11 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

How would they know that it can make a big difference?

Quite a few couples have been vaccinated at the same time, one has napped and the other hasn't, and the one who did hasn't suffered any significant side effects while the other has. Lots of my colleagues at work know people this has happened to. I think it's also pretty well reported that sleep helps with your immune system, so I guess that might have some bearing on it?

 

Obviously could be a complete coincidence, but worth a try 

[Tuna]

Had my Pfizer jab at Grantham meres leisure centre this afternoon apparently they only open at 1pm and my appointment was 1:10 quite a big queue into the car park but soon cleared. No side effects to report so far  still on cloud 9 after yesterday obviously!

[Legend_in_blue]

5 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

If a recent report from SAGE is to be believed then the Indian variant may be 50% more transmissible than the dominant Kent variant in the UK.  I'm including a link to the report.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf

 

Point 9 within the report advises that if this additional transmissibility is correct, then opening up tomorrow would lead to a substantial surge in hospitalisations similar to previous surges; further opening up on 21 June could lead to greater surges in hospitalisations than previous.

 

I have a feeling that the PM may have had this data when he announced last week that the opening up on 21 June may not be able to go ahead as planned.

This appears to relate to the modelling which has less than an average track record at actually modelling what eventually happens.  They've had the "modelling data" for weeks.  There's a sting in the tail for sure come June 17th.  I hope this recently reported inquiry also holds Sage and the modelling aka Ferguson to account.  In the main it's been hopelessly inaccurate and yet govt constantly make decisions based on it as if it's the only point of view worth listening to.

[Dr The Singh]

I know for fact the India variant is over played.  The Indian government is known for its genocide activities, this is genocide of the poor.

 

The fact that people were dying well before October, were not reported.  Why is this important?

 

 

[The People's Hero]

Wrong thread LOL. Sorry

Edited 16 May 2021 by The People's Hero

[Legend_in_blue]

And here we are.  A second year university student pulling apart the latest set of doom predictions which in turn leads to hysteria within the media:

 

Quote

 

To reach admissions three times the January peak, as the model projects, with a vaccinated population, this would mean that between three tenths and three fifths of the population would need to be infected – all in one week in mid-July – just to reach the central estimate projected. Then, the upper confidence interval, shaded in blue on the graph where hospitalisations reach 20,000 per day, would require between six fifths(!) and six tenths (120% and 60%) of the UK population, to be infected in one week. In other words, everybody in the UK would need to be infected and some twice, in one week in July, for the upper bound of Warwick’s projected doomsday scenario to be realised.

Clearly, to anyone who can do back-of-a-fag-packet calculations and type “ONS” into google, these projections are ridiculous and epidemiologically impossible. Yet there were 39 “scientific experts” attending SAGE meeting 89 at which these predictions were rubber stamped for the eyes of the Prime Minister. Is the groupthink so bad that none of them could do a few quick and simple calculations to verify the models were projecting things in the realm of what could be considered reasonable? Or do they not care? SPI-M are so attached to their modelling that they are not even testing it against basic numeracy to verify it.

 

 

In closing the following comments are made:

 

Quote

 

Going forwards: if all restrictions are lifted on June 21st and there is no resurgence in deaths, SPI-M and consequently SAGE will be made to look like muppets. If his scientific advisors force Boris to keep restrictions, they can pretend it was thanks to this when there is no resurgence and maintain their saviour complex, rather than admitting to being scientists who have unnecessarily destroyed lives and livelihoods on the back of dodgy science and incompetent attempts to model something beyond their capacity. For SAGE, prolonging restrictions is a win-win on all fronts.

Fortunately, though, we can find sanity in the free American states which have vowed not to reimpose restrictions. The Indian variant is present in the U.S.. If it is 50% more transmissible and the models are accurate, then the same massive resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths predicted for the U.K. will happen in Florida and South Dakota. If Boris maintains Lockdown restrictions in the U.K. and there is no resurgence in Florida, then it will be clear that all the damage caused by those restrictions was for nought.

 

 

Full article:  With Its Latest Model of Doom, Predicting 10,000 Hospital Admissions a Day in Mid-July, SAGE's Connection to Reality Has Finally Snapped

 

We're in a never-ending cycle here.  Sage will model variants from every country across the globe before they're finished at this rate.

 

 

[Soup]

9 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

And here we are.  A second year university student pulling apart the latest set of doom predictions which in turn leads to hysteria within the media:

 

 

In closing the following comments are made:

 

 

Full article:  With Its Latest Model of Doom, Predicting 10,000 Hospital Admissions a Day in Mid-July, SAGE's Connection to Reality Has Finally Snapped

 

We're in a never-ending cycle here.  Sage will model variants from every country across the globe before they're finished at this rate.

 

 

Very interesting. Although our very own Covid Marshall will rip it to bits with his known science 

[Legend_in_blue]

4 minutes ago, Soup said:

Very interesting. Although our very own Covid Marshall will rip it to bits with his known science 

Yes, indeed.  His words of wisdom are incoming no doubt! 

[SpacedX]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

This appears to relate to the modelling which has less than an average track record at actually modelling what eventually happens.  They've had the "modelling data" for weeks.  There's a sting in the tail for sure come June 17th.  I hope this recently reported inquiry also holds Sage and the modelling aka Ferguson to account.  In the main it's been hopelessly inaccurate and yet govt constantly make decisions based on it as if it's the only point of view worth listening to.

I can't be bothered typing the same things over and over and over anymore, it's exhausting. Fortunately, others can. 

 

https://theferret.scot/fact-check-neil-ferguson-covid-19-predictions/

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/10/07/covid-19-modelling-the-pandemic/

 

Neil Ferguson, March 2021:

 

“It was tragic how slow we were at increasing testing for the virus. We should have started testing in hospitals and GPs [surgeries] much earlier than we did. We would then have had a much clearer picture of how quickly infections were coming into the country. As a result, we would have almost certainly locked down earlier – and perhaps would have adopted very different strategies, such as more draconian restrictions on international travel.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/14/neil-ferguson-one-year-ago-i-first-realised-how-serious-coronavirus-was-then-it-got-worse-covid

 

Some context surrounding the use and limitations of epidemiological mathematical modelling to predict infection spread: 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2016822

 

8 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

And here we are.  A second year university student pulling apart the latest set of doom predictions which in turn leads to hysteria within the media:

 

 

In closing the following comments are made:

 

 

Full article:  With Its Latest Model of Doom, Predicting 10,000 Hospital Admissions a Day in Mid-July, SAGE's Connection to Reality Has Finally Snapped

 

We're in a never-ending cycle here.  Sage will model variants from every country across the globe before they're finished at this rate.

 

 

 "And here we are". Another piece of confirmation bias, subjective cherry picking and reinforcement of opinon.

 

It's Toby Young's 'Lockdown Skeptics' ffs. Unbelievable not only that this is still bouncing your vacuous echo-chamber, but that people are still sufficiently ignorant to refer and regurgitate it or regard it as legitimate science. 

 

Would you like to discuss Young further, or shall I leave it to you to actually attempt some objective critical appraisal of your own sources for once? 

[SpacedX]

52 minutes ago, Soup said:

Very interesting. Although our very own Covid Marshall will rip it to bits with his known science 

It is true that I tend to listen to the latter as opposed to 'Talk Radio'.

 

48 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Yes, indeed.  His words of wisdom are incoming no doubt! 

No problem - here they are. Learn the difference between subjectivity and objectivity. 

 

And here are some more. Understand what true "scepticism" actually means. Let me help you there. Have you prodded the 'donate' tab yet?

Edited 16 May 2021 by Line-X

[Soup]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

It is true that I tend to listen to the latter as opposed to 'Talk Radio'.

 

No problem - here they are. Learn the difference between subjectivity and objectivity. 

 

And here are some more. Understand what true "scepticism" actually means. Let me help you there. Have you prodded the 'donate' tab yet?

Sorry to take the piss but I couldn't help myself 

 

I don't know why you get so wound up tbh? The vast majority are with you on this so it's hardly the end of the world if a few take a different point of view. 

[SpacedX]

24 minutes ago, Soup said:

Sorry to take the piss but I couldn't help myself 

 

I don't know why you get so wound up tbh? The vast majority are with you on this so it's hardly the end of the world if a few take a different point of view. 

No need to apologise - I absolutely get your frustration with these restrictions, mixed messaging and ongoing uncertainties. 

 

Wound up? The only thing that's "wound me up today" was Alisson's header - as brilliant these moments in football are. Respect to him and Liverpool.

 

That's the point though - it isn't about a "point of view", yours or mine. But when the same people, repeatedly regurgitate the same misinformation masquerading as science from single source subjective and opportunistic agendas such as Toby Young (Katy Hopkins with a cocktail glass), or horseshit such as Talk Radio - I will tend to respond. 

[dsr-burnley]

4 hours ago, Line-X said:

Neil Ferguson, March 2021:

 

“It was tragic how slow we were at increasing testing for the virus. We should have started testing in hospitals and GPs [surgeries] much earlier than we did. We would then have had a much clearer picture of how quickly infections were coming into the country. As a result, we would have almost certainly locked down earlier – and perhaps would have adopted very different strategies, such as more draconian restrictions on international travel.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/14/neil-ferguson-one-year-ago-i-first-realised-how-serious-coronavirus-was-then-it-got-worse-covid

The Guardian is doing a little bit of rewriting history.  Take this section of the Guardian report (Ferguson's quotes in bold):

“By 14 March we realised that London hospitals were likely to be overwhelmed within weeks unless action was taken,” recalls Ferguson.  Two days later, Boris Johnson ordered a fairly light, voluntary lockdown, which was followed, abruptly, by a far more draconian set of restrictions on the 23rd. Britain was now under a full lockdown, from which it has emerged for only a few brief periods over the past year.  “It was the time between 10 and 15 March that was absolutely critical in terms of fundamental policy decisions being made,” Ferguson told the Observer last week.

 

So Ferguson is saying that 10th to 15th March was the time that critical decisions should have been and were made.  And SAGE's minutes of 18th March record the following: 

"2. SAGE advises that available evidence now supports implementing school closures on a national level as soon as practicable to prevent NHS intensive care capacity being exceeded.

3. SAGE advises that the measures already announced should have a significant effect, provided compliance rates are good and in line with the assumptions. Additional measures will be needed if compliance rates are low."

In other words, the government had done things right up to 18th March and it was now time to take the further step of closing schools, but no other action needed.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-18-march-2020/sage-17-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-18-march-2020

 

Schools closed on 20th March.  The Government in March 2020 followed SAGE's advice more or less to the letter; what they got wrong, was because SAGE told them wrong.  Ferguson was a member of SAGE and attended all the meetings in that critical time of 10th-18th March; we don't know of course whether he was the lone voice calling in the wilderness, being ignored like Cassandra; or whether he agreed the SAGE conclusions at the time and has since realised that they got it wrong.  But the Guardian;s slant that the government was at fault, is not justified by the evidence.

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Get me in that pub. That is all.

[Christoph]

7 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Get me in that pub. That is all.

Honestly..if I hear one more thing about these ****ing variants i'll flip my lid. 

 

Couldn't give a flying fook if there was a new demon spawn variant directly from Satan's bellend that spreads simply by thinking about the virus. After the taste of going to the FA cup the other day and experiencing the crowd around me..i need that normality back in my life.  

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 minute ago, Christoph said:

Honestly..if I hear one more thing about these ****ing variants i'll flip my lid. 

 

Couldn't give a flying fook if there was a new demon spawn variant directly from Satan's bellend that spreads simply by thinking about the virus. After the taste of going to the FA cup the other day and experiencing the crowd around me..i need that normality back in my life.  

 

I gave up watching or looking at the news ages ago, just gets you depressed. Saturday was amazing, felt like 2019 all over again, sounds bad but I'm not arsed about COVID anymore (like not even slightly), I told my old dear that earlier and she was disgusted

[Corky]

I get the concern about variants and we shouldn't be reckless but you hear the stories of business owners and employees who've borne the brunt of the past 14 months and how keen (and desperate) they were to open and you feel it would've been so cruel to deny them that again.

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Got the jab tomorrow, 27 years old and an alphamale in his prime.