2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[AKCJ]

1 minute ago, Ric Flair said:

Not quite but they certainly went on a decent run, we also showed relegation form for a large chunk of our season. This time around there's been a small drop off from us at a time where a) we never had the comfort zone of the winning run we'd been on to be so far clear in the first instance and b) for all Liverpool's crisis is has been for a 1-2 month period where before and after has seen some winning runs that we cannot seem to compete with. 

 

Whatever it is, I repeat that 69 points is a very good points total in any season for a team like ours. I don't think people quite understand the difference with what it takes to be closer to 70 points a season than 60, its a relentless season.

Man United won 9 of their last 13 games, drawing the other 4.

[Raw Dykes]

I've come to terms with a 5th place finish now. Not as gutted as I thought I would be, especially with it being a repeat of last season (the cup win does help!).

 

Having said that, it isn't quite over yet. We need to win, but also to hope that one of two other results go our way. It doesn't seem that likely for Villa to get something against Chelsea, or Palace to get anything at Anfield. However, the nature of the sport dictates that unlikely scorelines happen more often than they do in other sports. Any club can have an off-day in front of goal and draw a blank. Liverpool can count themselves extremely fortunate to beat an already-relegated West Brom team the other day, for example.

 

With just a little bit more luck re: injuries, I think we probably would be over the line already this season. If we can add a bit of depth to the squad, or not have so many important players crocked for so long next season, I think we'll continue to improve. It appears that we could have some very good deals lined up already, so I am already looking forward to next season.

 

Whatever happens, I'm so proud of the club, and it could still turn out to be an incredible final day of the season for us.

[jim5000]

5 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

A lot of the pressure is off now, if Perez had scored that goal I'd be soiling myself at the thought of us failing to beat Spurs and Chelsea winning at Villa. I've now come to terms that we will probably finish 5th.

 

Now I see this as somewhat of a free hit, just beat Spurs and see what happens. In someway it might be advantageous that the pressure is off and we know we're probably going to finish 5th but just give your all to beat Spurs and the stars might just align.

I think we’ll lose to Spurs, but Liverpool and Chelsea will both with so it will all be a bit meh.

 

Having said that, I do really hope we win to give the fans in the ground something to cheer about on our last match in the season. Hopefully the FA Cup also gets brought out for a showcase!

[chapero82]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Liverpool winning 6 of their last 8 with 2 draws. They drop points in any 1 of those and it was done for us. Why is that not just as much of the reason we are in jeopardy of missing out?

 

The truth is we've been pretty much an efficient and unexciting team all season, we know why and how but we've got on with it. Never too far away from a potential crisis and never too far away from putting more than 2-3 wins together. 

 

I'm not even slightly as disgusted as I was at this point last season. I am staggered we dusted ourselves down after last seasons capitulation and minimal pre-season and progressed as a team mentally. We are a huge work in progress which given we've spent 2 seasons inside the top 5 is a crazy prospect. Be careful what you lot wish for, I get the frustration and hurt right now but a) it's not over and b) we have won an FA Cup and done some unbelievable things this season.

 

Villa won't particularly want to see us in the top 4 but they also won't want the ESL clubs to get off Scott free with what they've done and 2 of those who were in very real danger of missing out on top 4 are now in the driving seat and they have a say in potentially still stopping thst for 1 of them. Its by no means a hopeless ask, in most circumstances Villa probably win or draw 5 times out of 10 vs Chelsea and there's plenty of little nuisances that could swing that in their favour but it's a stretch. 

 

We simply have to win and any team that gets 69 points with a squad like ours with the injuries we've had and a major trophy to boot has had a good season. Go and win it Leicester.

Please don’t do this to me... please don’t give me hope 

[jim5000]

1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

I know people love stats and figures (hence this thread), so I have tried to work out probability for this weekend. There are 27 different combinations of results (in the three games we are interested in).

 

In 11 scenarios, we would qualify for Top 4.

In 16 scenarios, we would miss out on Top 4.

 

It is worth noting that I have not assumed we are going to make up the GD (the odds of that are next to none anyway).

 

I then added probability calculations based on the current betting odds which resulted in:

 

A 23.3% chance of getting Top 4.

A 76.7% chance of missing out on Top 4.

 

Essentially, we are a 1 in 4 shot. So if this weekends games were played 4 times, in theory we would come out on top in 1 of them.

 

All numbers and best guessing, we all know football doesn't always work like that.

 

Just to add, the odds of us getting Top 4 based on our result:

 

If we win, we have a 45.93% chance of Top 4 (almost 50/50 if we beat Spurs).

If we draw, we only have a 6.29% chance of Top 4.

If we lose, 0% chance (apart from if Liverpool lost by at least 5 goals).

Do the stats take into account that both Liverpool and Chelsea are in far better form than us (both 4 wins in last 5), are recent champions league finalists (Liverpool winning last season and Chelsea in the final this season), are playing teams that are on the beach, and both have squads of players that know how to win important matches at the business end of the season?

 

I honestly can’t see either of them throwing away their chance on the last day of the season when they are both in great form.

[coolhandfox]

30 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Whatever it is, I repeat that 69 points is a very good points total in any season for a team like ours. I don't think people quite understand the difference with what it takes to be closer to 70 points a season than 60, its a relentless season.

Especially when you throw in 15 cup games from the FA Cup, EL and LC.

 

 

[jim5000]

31 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

I've come to terms with a 5th place finish now. Not as gutted as I thought I would be, especially with it being a repeat of last season (the cup win does help!).

 

Having said that, it isn't quite over yet. We need to win, but also to hope that one of two other results go our way. It doesn't seem that likely for Villa to get something against Chelsea, or Palace to get anything at Anfield. However, the nature of the sport dictates that unlikely scorelines happen more often than they do in other sports. Any club can have an off-day in front of goal and draw a blank. Liverpool can count themselves extremely fortunate to beat an already-relegated West Brom team the other day, for example.

 

With just a little bit more luck re: injuries, I think we probably would be over the line already this season. If we can add a bit of depth to the squad, or not have so many important players crocked for so long next season, I think we'll continue to improve. It appears that we could have some very good deals lined up already, so I am already looking forward to next season.

 

Whatever happens, I'm so proud of the club, and it could still turn out to be an incredible final day of the season for us.

Any club can have an off day, but clubs like Chelsea and Liverpool not have that off day on the last day of the season when they need a win against mid table opposition to secure Champions League football. 

[Raw Dykes]

Just now, jim5000 said:

Any club can have an off day, but clubs like Chelsea and Liverpool not have that off day on the last day of the season when they need a win against mid table opposition to secure Champions League football. 

As I say, I'm expecting 5th place now, but it's not quite a foregone conclusion just yet.

[Pliskin]

36 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

It really is over. 

It’s not though is it...... there’s a point in it. Maths would suggest it isn’t. 

[jim5000]

2 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

36 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Whatever it is, I repeat that 69 points is a very good points total in any season for a team like ours. I don't think people quite understand the difference with what it takes to be closer to 70 points a season than 60, its a relentless season.

Especially when you throw in 15 cup games from the FA Cup, EL and LC.

 

The club can be very proud of the performance this season. Playing in unusual circumstances and having such a gruelling schedule, and still improving on last seasons points total and winning the FA Cup is great progress. Hopefully we can reinforce and build over summer, keep our main players and manager, and make that final shove into top 4 next season.

 

It is also very disappointing for us, and football in general, that we have fallen at the last hurdle for the second season in a row. The likely top 4 of Man City, Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool is so boring and predictable, it’s almost the biggest reason why it’s disappointing that we didn’t get in there and disrupt it.

[jim5000]

1 minute ago, Raw Dykes said:

As I say, I'm expecting 5th place now, but it's not quite a foregone conclusion just yet.

Well, it is really.

[ronnup]

One of two teams even just draw and we win were in. It really isn't over. 

[RonnieTodger]

13 hours ago, Pliskin said:

So 5th deffo can’t be a CL place? My mate is convincing me it is?

If we finish 5th and Chelsea win the CL, we qualify for AFCON

[coolhandfox]

Just now, jim5000 said:

The club can be very proud of the performance this season. Playing in unusual circumstances and having such a gruelling schedule, and still improving on last seasons points total and winning the FA Cup is great progress. Hopefully we can reinforce and build over summer, keep our main players and manager, and make that final shove into top 4 next season.

 

It is also very disappointing for us, and football in general, that we have fallen at the last hurdle for the second season in a row. The likely top 4 of Man City, Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool is so boring and predictable, it’s almost the biggest reason why it’s disappointing that we didn’t get in there and disrupt it.

It just a such a difficult task, since Newcastle in 2003, only one team has broken the big 6 strangle hold on the top 4, us in 20015/16. (18 seasons)

[Pliskin]

1 minute ago, RonnieTodger said:

If we finish 5th and Chelsea win the CL, we qualify for AFCON

Shoe in to win that then! 

[Raw Dykes]

9 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

Well, it is really.

By definition, no, it is not really.

[Tom12345]

Go Grealish and Villa!!!!!!

[foxes_rule1978]

2 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

It just a such a difficult task, since Newcastle in 2003, only one team has broken the big 6 strangle hold on the top 4, us in 20015/16. (18 seasons)

It is unreal we have come so close twice, it isn’t over this season either... Chelsea or Liverpool slip up and we win, we will be top four. That is possible, I feel it will be villa that get at least a point against a Chelsea side struggling for goals. We just need to focus on beating Spurs in front of our fans 

Edited 20 May 2021 by foxes_rule1978

[ClaphamFox]

11 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

Well, it is really.

Why? Do you really think Villa, in front of their fans for the first time in over a year, and with Grealish back in the side, will roll over for Chelsea? Because I don't

[OhYesNdidi]

6 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

It just a such a difficult task, since Newcastle in 2003, only one team has broken the big 6 strangle hold on the top 4, us in 20015/16. (18 seasons)

The top 6 wasn’t a thing 18 years ago?

[Ric Flair]

48 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

Man United won 9 of their last 13 games, drawing the other 4.

Yes but what's different this time around is there's been no huge swing in form from BOTH parties like there was last season. This season over the last 10 games we have dropped ever so slightly from 1.8 points a game to 1.6, Liverpool have shot from 1.7 a game to 2.3 a game. It was a double whammy last season, this season we have dropped off just a smidge which shouldn't be completely overlooked but all season we've suffered similar issues and achieved similar successes, we've been a steady eddie and yet we are in jeopardy of still being beaten on the line.

[Ric Flair]

25 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

Especially when you throw in 15 cup games from the FA Cup, EL and LC.

 

 

Especially when you throw in a 3rd of the season having 3 wingers on your books that have scored a grand total of 3 league goals all season between them. We lost Barnes who was sublime for us, Maddison and Vardy too either through injuries and/or poor form.

 

Thank fcuk Iheanacho stepped up to the plate, him and Tielemand really have won us a major trophy and made this season still a huge success, we could quite easily be where Arsenal/Everton/Villa are right now and followed last seasons capitulation.

[foxes_rule1978]

3 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Yes but what's different this time around is there's been no huge swing in form from BOTH parties like there was last season. This season over the last 10 games we have dropped ever so slightly from 1.8 points a game to 1.6, Liverpool have shot from 1.7 a game to 2.3 a game. It was a double whammy last season, this season we have dropped off just a smidge which shouldn't be completely overlooked but all season we've suffered similar issues and achieved similar successes, we've been a steady eddie and yet we are in jeopardy of still being beaten on the line.

This. Last season we hit relegation form and went off a cliff, you can’t say the same this season. We could end up on 69 points and not get CL, all you can say is fair enough because that point total would normally get you top 4

[chapero82]

I’ve gone from it being over to we are going to do it on Sunday  

[fuchsntf]

35 minutes ago, chapero82 said:

Please don’t do this to me... please don’t give me hope 

Hope...The Killer of dreams

Hope...the Light before the Despair 

Hope...means You are in doubt

hope     the short stretch before Frustration

Hope....Usually means one is already in desperation

Hope...a typo for nope

 

Then again...

Hope...The one word that Feeds Motivation & gives the First step to prove a task.

Spirit....The Word that Spreads Hope

Fearless....the Spirit that Drives the hope

Foxes.....The Word that turns hope into realising your dreams...