2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[FrankieADZ]

i know people are totally dismissing Villa and Palace, but im hoping both will want to try and prove and show something,

Villa will want to finish their season on a high infront of their home fans(after what has been a decent improved season for them)

and the Palace players could be playing for their futures given the fact a new manager is coming in too

 

while i still think we'll miss out(sadly) but even if results go our way we need to do our bit

 

[KrefelderFox666]

50 minutes ago, FrankieADZ said:

i know people are totally dismissing Villa and Palace, but im hoping both will want to try and prove and show something,

Villa will want to finish their season on a high infront of their home fans(after what has been a decent improved season for them)

and the Palace players could be playing for their futures given the fact a new manager is coming in too

 

while i still think we'll miss out(sadly) but even if results go our way we need to do our bit

 

They might WANT to show something but they will no doubt not have enough. They are playing top sides who know how to win games when it matters.

 

People have been saying on here that [insert team name] will drop points and again saying one of Chelsea or Liverpool will drop points this weekend. The reality is that both are top teams showing form when it matters. Both will win and we are not able to win by 6 or 7 goals against Spurs.

 

Of course there is still hope but we hoped for the majority of the end of last season until the last match. It's just not meant to be. I want us to go out and play attacking football in this last match, win the game and see what happens. If the likely scenario happens that we miss out on GD, then fair enough. Not meant to be. If we get lucky and someone does drop points, even better.

 

We can only concentrate on ourselves, just finish the season with a win and some success and take that into next season.

[brucey]

54 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

We've just lost too many games, we turn a handful of those woeful performances into draws and we'd be fine. Home form has been abysmal, it's a miracle we've managed to stay in the top 4 until now  

 

The Southampton game was the big one, not very often you get to play against 10 men for 80mins and to not win the game was criminal. 

 

We have been part of the same top 5 clubs for two seasons, that has to be considered an achievement. Even if it's impossible to not be frustrated.

 

I don't think our targets change too much, if we were competing with regular champions League clubs for players then we'd struggle even if we were champions League ourselves. 

It does make it more difficult to get players from European clubs that have qualified though. 

All we needed was a win instead of a loss in one single game. Both in this season and last.

Simply winning those two games could have paid for our entire new training ground.
Or, strengthened the squad by 3-4 starters, allowing us to better sustain any European run in the future.
And crucially, keeping our best players, via improved wages and to a lesser extent the actual CL football.

It really is all about the money though.

So close yet so far.

[KrefelderFox666]

Final day predictions:

 

Liverpool 4-1 Crystal Palace

Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea

Leicester 2-1 Tottenham

[FoxinNotts]

Palace no chance. Villa, yeah, they could get a draw 🤞🏻🤷🏻‍♂️

[NasPb]

5 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

They might WANT to show something but they will no doubt not have enough. They are playing top sides who know how to win games when it matters.

 

People have been saying on here that [insert team name] will drop points and again saying one of Chelsea or Liverpool will drop points this weekend. The reality is that both are top teams showing form when it matters. Both will win and we are not able to win by 6 or 7 goals against Spurs.

 

Of course there is still hope but we hoped for the majority of the end of last season until the last match. It's just not meant to be. I want us to go out and play attacking football in this last match, win the game and see what happens. If the likely scenario happens that we miss out on GD, then fair enough. Not meant to be. If we get lucky and someone does drop points, even better.

 

We can only concentrate on ourselves, just finish the season with a win and some success and take that into next season.

How dare thou say we aren't capable od winning by 6-7 goals! Shall you not remember that we beat an inferior Southampton by 9?

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Depends what you mean by kids, Villa’s Under 18s are in the Youth Cup Final on Monday 

Well I clearly don’t mean the U18’s

 

They have a few good prospects on their bench each week - some have got the occasional run out but they aren’t first teamers yet 

 

[Switzfox]

Just win our game and see what happens.  Villa are capable of getting something so you never know.  Don't expect anything from Palace although they have been a Liverpool bogey team in the past.........

[Ric Flair]

Liverpool winning 6 of their last 8 with 2 draws. They drop points in any 1 of those and it was done for us. Why is that not just as much of the reason we are in jeopardy of missing out?

 

The truth is we've been pretty much an efficient and unexciting team all season, we know why and how but we've got on with it. Never too far away from a potential crisis and never too far away from putting more than 2-3 wins together. 

 

I'm not even slightly as disgusted as I was at this point last season. I am staggered we dusted ourselves down after last seasons capitulation and minimal pre-season and progressed as a team mentally. We are a huge work in progress which given we've spent 2 seasons inside the top 5 is a crazy prospect. Be careful what you lot wish for, I get the frustration and hurt right now but a) it's not over and b) we have won an FA Cup and done some unbelievable things this season.

 

Villa won't particularly want to see us in the top 4 but they also won't want the ESL clubs to get off Scott free with what they've done and 2 of those who were in very real danger of missing out on top 4 are now in the driving seat and they have a say in potentially still stopping thst for 1 of them. Its by no means a hopeless ask, in most circumstances Villa probably win or draw 5 times out of 10 vs Chelsea and there's plenty of little nuisances that could swing that in their favour but it's a stretch. 

 

We simply have to win and any team that gets 69 points with a squad like ours with the injuries we've had and a major trophy to boot has had a good season. Go and win it Leicester.

[Ricey]

I'm totally zen about it. I managed to avoid watching the match last night or checking the scores. It was a lot more relaxing than getting annoyed at Burnley for being crap.

 

On Sunday I'm just going to enjoy being back at a match and looking forward to seeing the FA Cup. We've probably got about a 20% chance of doing it, so it's not worth building your hopes up over. if it happens it will be incredible, but we will get what we deserve.

[Gerard]

2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Villa in front of their fans 

 

a loss will not affect their finishing position (and a win won’t either)

 

the fans won’t want to see their team lose but the likelihood is that they will.  So if smith plays a few kids then he gets a free pass. fans are happy to see ‘their own’ given a chance, especially against a top side. 
 

why would villa want us to make CL ?  They see us as their competition - they won’t want us getting a £40m windfall.  And this is without the conspiracy stuff re JT. 
 

cannot see the Chelsea side that was so mentally and physically right on Tuesday evening giving villa a sniff on Sunday.  more chance that liverpool lose focus at home imo. (But they’ll get over the line somehow) 

 

Well the betting implies you'll be right two thirds of the time but your scenario is far from a given. The Villa players will still want to win regardless of your theory of Villa putting a stick in the spokes of Leicester's ambitions.

 

Chelsea looked very good against us but sometimes little moments turn football matches on their head, despite Chelsea's dominance we were one half decent strike away from taking a point. The PL is littered with teams performing great one game and awful the next.

 

I expect us to finish 5th on Sunday but we still have hope, it's now Chelsea & Liverpool with something to lose and we only need one of them to mess up and put it back in our own hands. Just do your job Leicester and what will be will be, it's been a great season regardless.

[AKCJ]

18 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Liverpool winning 6 of their last 8 with 2 draws. They drop points in any 1 of those and it was done for us. Why is that not just as much of the reason we are in jeopardy of missing out?

It was the same with Man United last season.

[Guest bennytwohats]

On paper if you’d say any of the three teams after top 4 were going to slip up, it’s probably us…

 

I thoroughly believe we can win the game but we need to be at the races. Fans can have a huge impact so we need to be positive and not get down if other results don’t look to be going our way, as that could translate to the pitch.

 

If we can win we’ll finish the season on 69 points which is a hell of a total and a marked improvement on last season. In all likelihood it won’t be enough for top4, but it’s the minimum we need to do realistically, so let’s try and get it done and see what the day brings.

[coolhandfox]

People not giving Liverpool enough credit; they have taken 23 points 10 games at 2.3pts a game, in that ten our form has only dipped from 1.85 per game in the previous 27 games to 1.6 per game in the last 10. Beat Spurs, and our form during the last 11 jumps back up to 1.72 per game. 
 
So we would have been 2.5 pts better over those 10 games if we held our previous form.

 

It doesn't fit the bottling narrative some posters are trying to push, more of a few injuries, loss of form to key players, and a cup run distraction.

Edited 20 May 2021 by coolhandfox

[RonnieTodger]

The Alisson goal was the killer. Just knew then, that it's written in the stars for Liverpool.

 

Pressure is off now and I've come to terms with the Europa League. We've literally got nothing to lose, so go out and get at Spurs. If we win, that's enough for me. 

 

Can't control Palace and Villa.

Edited 20 May 2021 by RonnieTodger

[KrefelderFox666]

I know people love stats and figures (hence this thread), so I have tried to work out probability for this weekend. There are 27 different combinations of results (in the three games we are interested in).

 

In 11 scenarios, we would qualify for Top 4.

In 16 scenarios, we would miss out on Top 4.

 

It is worth noting that I have not assumed we are going to make up the GD (the odds of that are next to none anyway).

 

I then added probability calculations based on the current betting odds which resulted in:

 

A 23.3% chance of getting Top 4.

A 76.7% chance of missing out on Top 4.

 

Essentially, we are a 1 in 4 shot. So if this weekends games were played 4 times, in theory we would come out on top in 1 of them.

 

All numbers and best guessing, we all know football doesn't always work like that.

 

Just to add, the odds of us getting Top 4 based on our result:

 

If we win, we have a 45.93% chance of Top 4 (almost 50/50 if we beat Spurs).

If we draw, we only have a 6.29% chance of Top 4.

If we lose, 0% chance (apart from if Liverpool lost by at least 5 goals).

Edited 20 May 2021 by KrefelderFox666

[Nalis]

39 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Liverpool winning 6 of their last 8 with 2 draws. They drop points in any 1 of those and it was done for us. Why is that not just as much of the reason we are in jeopardy of missing out?

 

The truth is we've been pretty much an efficient and unexciting team all season, we know why and how but we've got on with it. Never too far away from a potential crisis and never too far away from putting more than 2-3 wins together. 

 

I'm not even slightly as disgusted as I was at this point last season. I am staggered we dusted ourselves down after last seasons capitulation and minimal pre-season and progressed as a team mentally. We are a huge work in progress which given we've spent 2 seasons inside the top 5 is a crazy prospect. Be careful what you lot wish for, I get the frustration and hurt right now but a) it's not over and b) we have won an FA Cup and done some unbelievable things this season.

 

Villa won't particularly want to see us in the top 4 but they also won't want the ESL clubs to get off Scott free with what they've done and 2 of those who were in very real danger of missing out on top 4 are now in the driving seat and they have a say in potentially still stopping thst for 1 of them. Its by no means a hopeless ask, in most circumstances Villa probably win or draw 5 times out of 10 vs Chelsea and there's plenty of little nuisances that could swing that in their favour but it's a stretch. 

 

We simply have to win and any team that gets 69 points with a squad like ours with the injuries we've had and a major trophy to boot has had a good season. Go and win it Leicester.

Great post.

 

On the section in bold I mentioned ages ago that it would take championship winning form from 2 teams to catch us. 

 

Unfortunately that happened with Liverpool's run coupled with Chelsea's recent run of won 5, drew 1, lost 1 in their last 7 league games. I know Southampton and Newcastle were missed opportunities but its very hard to compete with those runs.

[Danny Clender]

[SuperMike]

Strange! Does anyone else feel better, less stressed, calmer now that our hopes have been quashed and our concerns confirmed?

I have lost all hope but, like when you put a tenner on the lottery, I can still hold on to the tiniest glimmer that something (millions-to-one) may go my way!

[yorksfox]

12 years ago in 2009 we had just lifted the League One title, having edged past Cheltenham... or was it Crewe? The club has been fairly successful since then winning the odd thing here and there. Not achieving a 4th place finish is not something to keep me awake at night but I was bloody livid when we lost that League Cup semi to Villa last season. This has been a history-making season for us irrespective of a 4th or 5th place finish. 

[Gerard]

11 minutes ago, SuperMike said:

Strange! Does anyone else feel better, less stressed, calmer now that our hopes have been quashed and our concerns confirmed?

I have lost all hope but, like when you put a tenner on the lottery, I can still hold on to the tiniest glimmer that something (millions-to-one) may go my way!

 

A lot of the pressure is off now, if Perez had scored that goal I'd be soiling myself at the thought of us failing to beat Spurs and Chelsea winning at Villa. I've now come to terms that we will probably finish 5th.

 

Now I see this as somewhat of a free hit, just beat Spurs and see what happens. In someway it might be advantageous that the pressure is off and we know we're probably going to finish 5th but just give your all to beat Spurs and the stars might just align.

[Pliskin]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Liverpool winning 6 of their last 8 with 2 draws. They drop points in any 1 of those and it was done for us. Why is that not just as much of the reason we are in jeopardy of missing out?

 

The truth is we've been pretty much an efficient and unexciting team all season, we know why and how but we've got on with it. Never too far away from a potential crisis and never too far away from putting more than 2-3 wins together. 

 

I'm not even slightly as disgusted as I was at this point last season. I am staggered we dusted ourselves down after last seasons capitulation and minimal pre-season and progressed as a team mentally. We are a huge work in progress which given we've spent 2 seasons inside the top 5 is a crazy prospect. Be careful what you lot wish for, I get the frustration and hurt right now but a) it's not over and b) we have won an FA Cup and done some unbelievable things this season.

 

Villa won't particularly want to see us in the top 4 but they also won't want the ESL clubs to get off Scott free with what they've done and 2 of those who were in very real danger of missing out on top 4 are now in the driving seat and they have a say in potentially still stopping thst for 1 of them. Its by no means a hopeless ask, in most circumstances Villa probably win or draw 5 times out of 10 vs Chelsea and there's plenty of little nuisances that could swing that in their favour but it's a stretch. 

 

We simply have to win and any team that gets 69 points with a squad like ours with the injuries we've had and a major trophy to boot has had a good season. Go and win it Leicester.

And it further highlights what having a squad worth nearly a billion £‘s can do for you......when you need to turn it on, you can.... we should be immensely proud of what we achieved this season. I was pissed off initially, but you have to look at the situation logically...

 

Financially we have no right to be competing with the clubs are competing with..... we all thought we had ****ed it after last season, a few even predicting a total capitulation and relegation fears, but we’ve been even stronger, with only a couple of new signings.... one being a complete flop. 
 

I mean for **** sake, we’ve had Amartey starting..... Under has been toss, but Castagne a boss.

 

We’ve lost Barnes, Vardy isn’t fit nor is Maddison, Evans has been struggling for a few weeks and Ricardo has had a slow start returning from injury.... all key players, a squad of our size will never be that consist at if we can’t keep the squad fit and together.

 

Whatever happens on Sunday happens, I hope to god we don’t start booing or anything stupid like that if we stack it, show the guys we’re behind them. Show the likes of Youri and Madders that we love them and we don’t want them to piss off to join someone else. 

 

Next season we will do something special, Mark my words. This team is going forwards not backwards. 
 

However having said that, Liverpool are going to stack it against Palace. Trust me. There’s a controversial Zaha & Benteke moment incoming. 

Edited 20 May 2021 by Pliskin

[Ric Flair]

52 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

It was the same with Man United last season.

Not quite but they certainly went on a decent run, we also showed relegation form for a large chunk of our season. This time around there's been a small drop off from us at a time where a) we never had the comfort zone of the winning run we'd been on to be so far clear in the first instance and b) for all Liverpool's crisis is has been for a 1-2 month period where before and after has seen some winning runs that we cannot seem to compete with. 

 

Whatever it is, I repeat that 69 points is a very good points total in any season for a team like ours. I don't think people quite understand the difference with what it takes to be closer to 70 points a season than 60, its a relentless season.

[jim5000]

On 19/05/2021 at 07:59, Ric Flair said:

Still think Liverpool are toiling, last gasp winners are often a sign that you're bottoming out, not riding the crestwave. I could be massively optimistic but they will run in to trouble and Villa will give Chelsea a scare, its just whether we have enough to still get a win against a team that hate us and want to ensure they aren't in that heinous European Conference competition.

 

This possible sticky situation is exactly when we step up though this season or at least are massively helped out by others.

 

It's not over.

It really is over. 

[coolhandfox]

20 minutes ago, SuperMike said:

Strange! Does anyone else feel better, less stressed, calmer now that our hopes have been quashed and our concerns confirmed?

I have lost all hope but, like when you put a tenner on the lottery, I can still hold on to the tiniest glimmer that something (millions-to-one) may go my way!

I've been pretty chilled about it since we won the FA Cup, my biggest fear was losing the final and finishing 5th.