2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[KFS]

3 minutes ago, brucey said:

 

Yeah it’s done. Great point.

[Mickyblueeyes]

3 minutes ago, brucey said:

 

Ah but it’s also a villa park with fans. They’ll want a show. Believe. ****ing hell, I’m supporting Villa now. 

[foxes_rule1978]

Just now, Mickyblueeyes said:

Ah but it’s also a villa park with fans. They’ll want a show. Believe. ****ing hell, I’m supporting Villa now. 

The fact it is in front of fans is why I believe they will put out a strong team. They haven’t been able to go to a game all season so it would be pretty shitty to go and rest all your players for no reason. 

[CosbehFox]

Chelsea under Tuchel have very rarely beaten teams well (except Palace). Generally as well Villa defend good and Grealish for certain will want game time with the Euros. Watkins also in the frame for England 

Edited 19 May 2021 by Cardiff_Fox

[Mickyblueeyes]

10 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

The fact it is in front of fans is why I believe they will put out a strong team. They haven’t been able to go to a game all season so it would be pretty shitty to go and rest all your players for no reason. 

Exactly. We’ve gone from the Fa Cup Final to main game last day of the season (again) in the space of the week. There are three teams. Something special is going to happen.

 

This is going to be Tony James all

over again! 

[chapero82]

19 minutes ago, brucey said:

 

I doubt that will be happening…..

 

 

[Gerard]

9 hours ago, Ross 'LCFC' Turner said:

Enter Jeffrey Schlupp ...........  

 

Cometh the hour, cometh the Schluppinator 

[Gerard]

9 hours ago, JamesfromlondonLCFC said:

The Europa League is almost as winnable as the FA Cup if you prioritise is properly, which we may have to do next year, as I believe the top 4 spots will be way more difficult to get into next season.

 

Just looking at the odds this year after the group stage was completed IIRC the top six in the betting was the four English clubs.

 

You would think that the four English PL should qualify so it looks like the only English representatives would be West Ham and ourselves. The rest of the big 5 countries looks like being AC Milan, Lazio, Frankfurt, Leverkusen, Lyon, Marseilles & Real Sociedad. Not easy by any stretch but a competition we could be as strong as anyone in.

 

If we find ourselves well off the pace in the top four race in the PL next season by December I'd like to see us fully concentrate on the cups at the expense of the league if we had to. 

 

 

[fuchsntf]

22 hours ago, LCCFox96 said:

Should we beat Spurs, Liverpool dropping something at Turf Moor is probably our best chance. If they lose tonight, then Chelsea have Top 4 wrapped up meaning: 1) we only need a point to guarantee it. 2) Chelsea will hopefully be more comfortable vs Villa and hopefully more likely to drop something themselves.

 

Not holding my breathe though, and a real shame our fate could be out of our hands on the final day. A point last night would have been just the ticket - Perez's chance at the death was a glorious opportunity. One things for sure, we need to win our game and be the grateful recipient of a favour or too from elsewhere.

What a difference...a few hrs make....

 

Its come down to last game.....

i have no regrets..the present Top 4, Simply Play at a different quality, consistent level, to any of the Chasing pack...

forget who we Think are slime-balls ....Usually the cross banter, or opinions Read on fans-forums....Plus Media ( Bias journo's)...

 

Wham, & Leicester , even Villa gave it a Good go....Where The named big Top 6, can easy carry 2-4 injuries...

We had a decimated squad every Single one of our high-Octane players have suffered & chronic-injuries and still are, over either 14 months or season begin..

Unusual But for a long stretch our fringe/Cover & youth players stepped up to the plate, and then BRodgers & team experienced, even

those that were also hit anything from 3 weeks to 2 months...

Then those other Two clubs  mentioned, had hits with injuries 2-3 from their Star- game-tact-players..

 

Nobody is/has have any  decent recognition, what These 3 clubs lost out on, but still delivered top results, for our situations...

We have had a Top season, no hard failings,Frustration came from OTT expectations, then the " should-factor"

A better, injury-less season..( Only 1-2 injuries, or Short Term knocks) ,and a couple more decent buys....We can turn it up a notch further...

Again this season The Tale of our squads Chronic- injuries, Simply caught up with us...

B.Rodgers though he must have been frustrated, didnt whine or Build up excuses, like his higher peers. the massive Quality squad managers..!!

 

Anyone using...Bottles or failures want.   must  get a Reality check...

Ignore Chelsea fans, who 'bravely'. the poor darlings, Post that the FA.cup is just a tinpot,compared to Top 4...

I would Love A.Villa & CPalace  Force a draw on the last Day...

Then Watch Sky-pundits & greasy commentators go into speachless Melt down mode...

When we go to the Levvy, and find the Levvy dry....

Foxes...3. .cocky Cockerels.1

 

PS..Also fair to say Burnley/Soton/ CP were hit with 3-6 long Term injuries

 

 

 

Edited 20 May 2021 by fuchsntf

[Gerard]

Just looking at the implied odds on Betfair for Sunday.

 

It's a 45% chance that one of Liverpool or Chelsea don't win their game.

 

We're about a 49% chance to beat Spurs.

 

So basically we have to win two coin tosses on Sunday. This is not over just yet.

[Bats8711]

25 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Just looking at the implied odds on Betfair for Sunday.

 

It's a 45% chance that one of Liverpool or Chelsea don't win their game.

 

We're about a 49% chance to beat Spurs.

 

So basically we have to win two coin tosses on Sunday. This is not over just yet.

it's the hope that kills you

[fuchsntf]

•                                   Arsenal..2...3..Brighton & Hove Albion
•         Aston Villa..2...2..Chelsea
•                              Fulham..3...1..Newcastle United
•                             Leeds United..3...5..West Bromwich Albion
•                        Leicester City..4...2...Tottenham Hotspur
•                       Liverpool..1...2..Crystal Palace

   

                                                                                  Manchester City..2...2..Everton

•  
• Sheffield United .4...1 Burnley
•         West Ham United 3...2  Southampton
     
•  Wolverhampton Wanderers..3....1...Manchester United
   
   
   
  My Sunday Prayers...My season closing last wishes..

Edited 19 May 2021 by fuchsntf

[Mickyblueeyes]

40 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Just looking at the implied odds on Betfair for Sunday.

 

It's a 45% chance that one of Liverpool or Chelsea don't win their game.

 

We're about a 49% chance to beat Spurs.

 

So basically we have to win two coin tosses on Sunday. This is not over just yet.

Of course it’s not. Yes, we’ve had a twist and it’s not gone in our favour. However, it’s different from last year. We were playing Man U with half a team. They were on absolute fire. One goal, one dodgy Var decision etc etc. The CL places change multiple times on final day. It’s going to be a behind the sofa sort of day but I think we’ll do it.

[Beechey]

Disappointed to probably not be in the CL positions again, but the cup really softens it, and I’m still delighted with where we are in the league. Sure is more impressive than League One.

Edited 19 May 2021 by Beechey

[NasPb]

If grealish can do his pal Maddison a favor it'll be like thor amd his brother helping each other. Just do it lad

[Ric Flair]

As I said quite a while ago, we could get 69 points and it still not be enough.

 

Should we have got 70 points or more from our position? Yes probably but we've been out on out feet trying to juggle all of these games with an absolutely shocking selection of players and plenty off form.

 

Still 1 last push, it's not over.

[Nicolo Barella]

8 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

As I said quite a while ago, we could get 69 points and it still not be enough.

 

Should we have got 70 points or more from our position? Yes probably but we've been out on out feet trying to juggle all of these games with an absolutely shocking selection of players and plenty off form.

 

Still 1 last push, it's not over.

Picture this for a second... Cheating Chelsea are 1-0 up at the 90th minute, Grealish gets a last minute equaliser. Both Liverpool and Leicester win their games, making Top 4. Chelsea proceed to lose to Man City in the Champions League final, missing out on Champions League football completely next season. Now that would be a real kick in the teeth for Chilwell hey?

 

Very low chance of that happening of course, but a man can dream.

[Ric Flair]

30 minutes ago, Nicolo Barella said:

Picture this for a second... Cheating Chelsea are 1-0 up at the 90th minute, Grealish gets a last minute equaliser. Both Liverpool and Leicester win their games, making Top 4. Chelsea proceed to lose to Man City in the Champions League final, missing out on Champions League football completely next season. Now that would be a real kick in the teeth for Chilwell hey?

 

Very low chance of that happening of course, but a man can dream.

Hahahahaaaa

 

It's one of those where you don't want to get your hopes up but Villa in front of their fans for the 1st time in over a year will not be easy for Chelsea. Have we got enough to go on the front foot all game and get the win vs Spurs though? We've literally two outfield players that can provide any iota of match winning consistency right now in Tielemans and Iheanacho.

 

There will be drama, it's definitely a more likely prospect than it was us beating Man Utd on the last day of last season with that back 5 we played.

[teblin]

If we win on Sunday and miss out on goal difference in the CL I don’t get this “bottle job” narrative. 
 

We have lost out best players at key times in the season. JJ, Wilf, Evans,Barnes.

 

We didn’t bottle it at Chelsea we looked tired after winning OUR FIRST EVER FA CUP!!! We could’ve easily got a point in the end too.

 

Ok we shouldn’t have lost at home in some of the games we have, we should have beat a 10 man Southampton. Liverpool have lost some crazy games at home too.

 

We have disrupted the “big 6” and will continue too in my opinion. Let’s do what we can on Sunday and see where it takes us.

[st albans fox]

Villa in front of their fans 

 

a loss will not affect their finishing position (and a win won’t either)

 

the fans won’t want to see their team lose but the likelihood is that they will.  So if smith plays a few kids then he gets a free pass. fans are happy to see ‘their own’ given a chance, especially against a top side. 
 

why would villa want us to make CL ?  They see us as their competition - they won’t want us getting a £40m windfall.  And this is without the conspiracy stuff re JT. 
 

cannot see the Chelsea side that was so mentally and physically right on Tuesday evening giving villa a sniff on Sunday.  more chance that liverpool lose focus at home imo. (But they’ll get over the line somehow) 

[turlo]

17 minutes ago, teblin said:

If we win on Sunday and miss out on goal difference in the CL I don’t get this “bottle job” narrative. 
 

We have lost out best players at key times in the season. JJ, Wilf, Evans,Barnes.

 

We didn’t bottle it at Chelsea we looked tired after winning OUR FIRST EVER FA CUP!!! We could’ve easily got a point in the end too.

 

Ok we shouldn’t have lost at home in some of the games we have, we should have beat a 10 man Southampton. Liverpool have lost some crazy games at home too.

 

We have disrupted the “big 6” and will continue too in my opinion. Let’s do what we can on Sunday and see where it takes us.

The bottle job narrative is just something large parts of the media and some of our fan base will run with anyway. Our points projection has been 68 points since February and we're on track for that - our form hasn't really dropped off at all but we certainly did drop a b*llock against Newcastle on the run in. some of the other surprise defeats at home I'd put down to partly down to injuries and key players being overplayed (as we had no choice). Having to regularly make 2 changes to our back line each game before Christmas certainly didn't help.

[CosbehFox]

34 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Villa in front of their fans 

 

a loss will not affect their finishing position (and a win won’t either)

 

the fans won’t want to see their team lose but the likelihood is that they will.  So if smith plays a few kids then he gets a free pass. fans are happy to see ‘their own’ given a chance, especially against a top side. 
 

why would villa want us to make CL ?  They see us as their competition - they won’t want us getting a £40m windfall.  And this is without the conspiracy stuff re JT. 
 

cannot see the Chelsea side that was so mentally and physically right on Tuesday evening giving villa a sniff on Sunday.  more chance that liverpool lose focus at home imo. (But they’ll get over the line somehow) 

Depends what you mean by kids, Villa’s Under 18s are in the Youth Cup Final on Monday 

[RowlattsFox]

We've just lost too many games, we turn a handful of those woeful performances into draws and we'd be fine. Home form has been abysmal, it's a miracle we've managed to stay in the top 4 until now  

 

The Southampton game was the big one, not very often you get to play against 10 men for 80mins and to not win the game was criminal. 

 

We have been part of the same top 5 clubs for two seasons, that has to be considered an achievement. Even if it's impossible to not be frustrated.

 

I don't think our targets change too much, if we were competing with regular champions League clubs for players then we'd struggle even if we were champions League ourselves. 

It does make it more difficult to get players from European clubs that have qualified though. 

[Koke]

The sad thing is we have the most difficult game of the 3. Liverpool will annihilate Palace. Chelsea will grind out yet another result against mid table nobodies. Whatever we say about Spurs at least they have dangerous players up front. So not only do we have to win the hardest game of the 3, but we also have to hope one of the other two have a day off. Reality is Liverpool and Chelsea are so experienced in these high pressure situations. They be been through this more times than I care to know. I have zero hope for Palace so im npt even gonna check their result.  I have a tiny hope for Villa. 

[FrankieADZ]

9 hours ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

The fact it is in front of fans is why I believe they will put out a strong team. They haven’t been able to go to a game all season so it would be pretty shitty to go and rest all your players for no reason. 

thats what Im thinking too, and given Dean Smith is also a Villa fan, and wanting to put something on for the returning fans too, theyll want to go out on high