2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Alf Bentley]

I'd really appreciate it if we had a strong 1st half for once. 

 

If we could get a couple of early goals to put psychological pressure on Chelsea and Liverpool, while they're still level.

While Palace hopefully have 10 men behind the ball with Zaha on the break, Grealish is diving all over the Chelsea box and McGinn is taking pot shots from the edge of the area with Watkins sniffing about for rebounds.....

 

Give us a run for our money, lads....you never know where it might lead us. 

[Raw Dykes]

16 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

I won’t keep goin round in circles as I’ll pass my daily post quota. But it’s done 

Do you genuinely believe that it's impossible for us to finish top 4? I don't think you do.

[Chrysalis]

15 hours ago, Pliskin said:

Chelsea are the most likely ones to slip. One eye on the CL final and a tough last game. 
 

But, do you trust us to beat Spurs now the pressure is on..... suddenly I can see Sunday going horribly wrong. 

Play like we did end of Chelsea game, yes we will beat them, if we passive like start of Chelsea game, not so sure.

[shen]

4 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Play like we did end of Chelsea game, yes we will beat them, if we passive like start of Chelsea game, not so sure.

We were never passive against Chelsea, they were just extremely quick and precise. They were ready for our pressing and ingeniously thwarted our efforts.
It's way too simplistic and very misleading to say we were "passive" just because we were dominated by a better team performance on the night.

Edited 20 May 2021 by shen

[HighPeakFox]

I think it's been said elsewhere, but we're the only FA Cup winners who have had to then compete in meaningful matches thereafter. That's tough to do. 

[shen]

4 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I think it's been said elsewhere, but we're the only FA Cup winners who have had to then compete in meaningful matches thereafter. That's tough to do. 

Were Wigan relegated already when they won it?
EDIT: Just checked and Wigan were in fact relegated three days after winning the cup, so seems your info/source didn't get it right.

Edited 20 May 2021 by shen

[Guest Bert Fill]

29 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

I won’t keep goin round in circles as I’ll pass my daily post quota. But it’s done 

No. It isn‘t.

It probably will be, but it isn’t yet.

Nothing is done till it’s done; I assume you were around in 2014-15, and surely if we learned anything from that it’s that it ain’t over till it’s over.

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, shen said:

Were Wigan relegated already when they won it?

I thought so. I might have been lazy here but I didn't remember the Cup final ever being scheduled before the end of the season before, which I admit isn't quite the same as what I originally said. 

[Number 6]

An approx 1 in 4 chance we end up in the top 4. What were the FA Cup final odds again?

[ClaphamFox]

Another potential factor: Grealish has a chance of making the England squad, but is by no means a shoe-in. He'll know that he'll enhance his chances no end if he plays a blinder on Sunday. It's a massive game for him.

[shen]

3 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

It just a such a difficult task, since Newcastle in 2003, only one team has broken the big 6 strangle hold on the top 4, us in 20015/16. (18 seasons)

Everton finished fourth two years later. Who makes these erroneous stats? Does anyone care to check anymore?

[shen]

13 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

I thought so. I might have been lazy here but I didn't remember the Cup final ever being scheduled before the end of the season before, which I admit isn't quite the same as what I originally said. 

I also assume you meant the League campaign only. Traditionally the CL final is the final game played in top division football. I.e. Man Utd played Bayern after winning the FA Cup in '99.

[coolhandfox]

2 hours ago, OhYesNdidi said:

Everton 04/05 

 

2 minutes ago, shen said:

Everton finished fourth two years later. Who makes these erroneous stats? Does anyone care to check anymore?

To slow, maybe you should have checked 

[SixtiesFox]

The only thing we can control now is our performance on the pitch against Spurs. Brendan and the players will be totally focused on that. The fans in attendance will create a raucous atmosphere. At the end of the match, win, lose or draw, qualify for the CL or not, the fans can celebrate with the players to acknowledge another incredible season for this football club. Throw in a little parading of the FA Cup around the pitch at the end and there won't be a dry eye in the stadium or watching at home.

[KrefelderFox666]

25 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

An approx 1 in 4 chance we end up in the top 4. What were the FA Cup final odds again?

1 in 2.5 roughly?

[KrefelderFox666]

1 hour ago, Ric Flair said:

Or in a perverse way we lose 4-0 at home to Spurs and everyone is pissing themselves and then Liverpool lose 9-0 at home to Palace.

Now you're being silly...

 

That actually wouldn't be enjoyable to watch though. Funny no doubt at the end, but it would feel strange. No idea why I am actually thinking about that scenario now!

[Expatfox]

First match I went to was home to Man Utd in 1965. My dad took me, and we got beat 0-5. I've followed the city ever since, through thin and thin ( very thin at times!) Never thought I'd see a League Championship in my lifetime. So, in that sense, an FA cup AND 5th place, with entry into a European competition we COULD actually win, is absolute heaven! 4th place is not impossible, either! Come on Lestah!

[Countryfox]

44 minutes ago, SixtiesFox said:

The only thing we can control now is our performance on the pitch against Spurs. Brendan and the players will be totally focused on that. The fans in attendance will create a raucous atmosphere. At the end of the match, win, lose or draw, qualify for the CL or not, the fans can celebrate with the players to acknowledge another incredible season for this football club. Throw in a little parading of the FA Cup around the pitch at the end and there won't be a dry eye in the stadium or watching at home.

Mine won't be dry that's for sure ...   oh ...   didn't I mention ...    I've got a ticket ...       

[jim5000]

2 hours ago, Raw Dykes said:

Do you genuinely believe that it's impossible for us to finish top 4? I don't think you do.

It’s not impossible, but I can’t see it happening at all. I’m usually fairly optimistic but it’s not ours to win now, it’s Chelsea and Liverpool’s to lose. And they are both in top form and experienced in getting results when it matters, I just can’t see either of them letting it slip against mid table, on the beach, opposition at this point.

[jim5000]

1 hour ago, Bert Fill said:

No. It isn‘t.

It probably will be, but it isn’t yet.

Nothing is done till it’s done; I assume you were around in 2014-15, and surely if we learned anything from that it’s that it ain’t over till it’s over.

2014-15 we weren’t relying on Champions League finalists and current European champions to cock-up their final match of the season to and throw away their CL football for next season. Liverpool and Chelsea know that if they win their match they are over the line, and they have the players with the experience to go out and make it so.

[Bert]

2 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

2014-15 we weren’t relying on Champions League finalists and current European champions to cock-up their final match of the season to and throw away their CL football for next season. Liverpool and Chelsea know that if they win their match they are over the line, and they have the players with the experience to go out and make it so.

What are we relying on Bayern Munich for then? 

[MrsJohnMurphy]

1 hour ago, ClaphamFox said:

Another potential factor: Grealish has a chance of making the England squad, but is by no means a shoe-in. He'll know that he'll enhance his chances no end if he plays a blinder on Sunday. It's a massive game for him.

Mings and Watkins too, I think Chelsea will have a tough game

[Scanchez]

I've got news for you, lads.

We're getting top 4.

Don't ask me how I know - a gentleman doesn't kiss and tell.


 

[shen]

6 minutes ago, jim5000 said:

2014-15 we weren’t relying on Champions League finalists and current European champions to cock-up their final match of the season to and throw away their CL football for next season. Liverpool and Chelsea know that if they win their match they are over the line, and they have the players with the experience to go out and make it so.

Yet despite Chelsea running rings around us on Tuesday they only won 2-1 and the story could easily have been very different had Ayoze taken his chance. Margins were on Chelsea's side.
Obviously both are favourites for their ties, but it's weird how you insist both have won their games before a ball's been kicked.
Liverpool have lost the actual title against Crystal Palace in recent memory and Chelsea without Kanté are a much weaker proposition and have shown to be vulnerable. All still to play for.

[Xen]

2 hours ago, jim5000 said:

Villa don’t have to roll over for Chelsea to beat them.

 

Villa, 11th in the league, nothing to play for, inconsistent, 2 wins and a draw in their last 5

Chelsea, 3rd in the league, playing for CL qualification, 4 wins in their last 5, just beat the club in 4th, one of the form teams of the division.

Villa aren't actually all that inconsistent.

With Grealish in the side they were averaging 1.7 PPG (for comparisons sake, we were just shy of 1.8PPG this season). Without him starting that dropped to just 0.9PPG, which is the reason for their lower position. Grealish is currently back and available, and will be keen to show he's fit enough for the Euros this summer. 

 

Sure, they've not got anything to play for on the face of it, but I wouldn't rule anything out.