Ukraine

[Lionator]

49 minutes ago, chapero82 said:

I don’t see how this ends without it turning into a world war tbh 

Quite easily. Russia slowly strangles Ukraine. Ukraines concedes to Russia’s demands (demilitarisation). Zelenskyy probably resigns or is overthrown. Ukraine re enters the Russia sphere that it only left 8 years ago. We move on with most sanctions left in place. The end. 
 

In fact I’d even go as far as saying that there’ll be a peace declaration by the end of this month. 

Edited 1 March 2022 by Lionator

[st albans fox]

17 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Powerful and emotional, but Johnson’s rational response is more important imo.

 

Anyone who genuinely thinks we should employ a no fly zone, or engage militarily;

 

a) Proves Putin’s point that the West wants to militarily dominate Russia.

b) is advocating a declaration of war against Russia, which again would make us more insane than anything Putin has done. 

russia is currently occupying and attacking a sovereign nation - one issue is that all major  military nations who could come to ukraine's assistance are members of NATO.  so getting directly involved in ukraine will likely invoke a response from russia against the nation which then brings NATO article 5 into play.   

 

16 minutes ago, Lionator said:

NATO aren’t getting involved. Its a non starter. It’s going to be a hard watch but that’s all we can do.

it depends how hard the watch becomes - there was a tipping point in the balkans. 

 

4 minutes ago, thursday_next said:

I have just seen on Sky News a poll which says 66% of US voters are in favour of sanctions against Russia. What happened to the other 34%, I have to ask? 

they dont know that anywhere exists beyond hawaii and puerto rico 

[Lionator]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

 

 

it depends how hard the watch becomes - there was a tipping point in the balkans. 

 

The Balkans war did not involve a power with nuclear weapons (unless I’m mistaken). 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

The Kremlin states they are not targeting civilians.

 

Given the carnage we are seeing on our TV screens does this mean Putin has no control over his military?

 

We already know he can't be trusted.

he isn't telling the truth - he hasn't for decades .......

 

the russians see it as military tactics - we recognise it as lies .....

[Jaspa]

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, Lionator said:

The Balkans war did not involve a power with nuclear weapons (unless I’m mistaken). 

NATO will have to make a call if thousands of civilians are being slaughtered on out tv screens every day .......... the public wont accept the excuse. they wont accept that putin would use his nuclear weapons because he and russian territory isn't being targeted. it would be a defensive strategy to provide air cover over ukraine only. 

[ClaphamFox]

9 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Quite easily. Russia slowly strangles Ukraine. Ukraines concedes to Russia’s demands (demilitarisation). Zelenskyy probably resigns or is overthrown. Ukraine re enters the Russia sphere that it only left 8 years ago. We move on with most sanctions left in place. The end. 

It won't end there though. There would inevitably be a Ukrainian insurgency against Russian control, probably supplied and funded by the west. It would turn into a very ugly protracted battle that would drain a huge amount of money from a Russian economy already crippled by sanctions. There would be growing unrest in Russia that would require Putin to impose ever more authoritarian rules upon the Russian people. A new cold war will have begun.

 

I'm afraid there is simply no returning to the world that existed a week ago before Russia invaded Ukraine. This is a new phase in human history.

Edited 1 March 2022 by ClaphamFox

[MPH]

18 minutes ago, thursday_next said:

I have just seen on Sky News a poll which says 66% of US voters are in favour of sanctions against Russia. What happened to the other 34%, I have to ask? 

 

a lot of Americans seem to have  an “economy first”  ideology to their thinking and voting. ‘  A strong economy will take care of everything else.’ We are already seeing $4 a gallon here for the first time since I moved here 12 years ago so I’m absolutely certain that  the 34% are worried as to how it will effect the American economy.

[MPH]

18 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

The Kremlin states they are not targeting civilians.

 

Given the carnage we are seeing on our TV screens does this mean Putin has no control over his military?

 

We already know he can't be trusted.

 

surely the fact they have invaded at all proves that you can’t trust a single word that comes out of the Kremlin…

[JonnyBoy]

17 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Quite easily. Russia slowly strangles Ukraine. Ukraines concedes to Russia’s demands (demilitarisation). Zelenskyy probably resigns or is overthrown. Ukraine re enters the Russia sphere that it only left 8 years ago. We move on with most sanctions left in place. The end. 
 

In fact I’d even go as far as saying that there’ll be a peace declaration by the end of this month. 

 

From what i have read these sanctions will cripple Russia's economy, Will Putin be ok with that? 

[Strokes]

18 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

he isn't telling the truth - he hasn't for decades .......

 

the russians see it as military tactics - we recognise it as lies .....

He lives in a world where he decides what is the truth and what isn’t.

[whoareyaaa]

1 hour ago, pmcla26 said:

Just make sure someone tells Biden not to leave them all there for the Russians to grab when we're done

This happened with a high tech chopper when US went after bin laden was watching something on it the other day, the afghans recovered it and sold it to the Chinese  

[Lionator]

9 minutes ago, JonnyBoy said:

 

From what i have read these sanctions will cripple Russia's economy, Will Putin be ok with that? 

They still have China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Africa, most of the Middle East and they’re still exporting us gas and oil. The sanctions are bad but they’ll survive just fine. 
 

Israel and Turkey have both said in the past two days ‘yes what Russia has done is bad, but we still need them’. 

Edited 1 March 2022 by Lionator

[Countryfox]

33 minutes ago, thursday_next said:

I have just seen on Sky News a poll which says 66% of US voters are in favour of sanctions against Russia. What happened to the other 34%, I have to ask? 

Doesn’t surprise me in the slightest ..  in fact I’m surprised it isn’t more.  Their attitude has been changing for a while ..  ‘it’s Europe let them get on with it we’re fed up helping’  ..  was probably factored in by Putin ..  and when Biden came into office and pulled the troops out of Afghanistan he must have about creamed his pants. 

[The Horse's Mouth]

9 minutes ago, Lionator said:

They still have China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Africa, most of the Middle East and they’re still exporting us gas and oil. The sanctions are bad but they’ll survive just fine. 
 

Israel and Turkey have both said in the past two days ‘yes what Russia has done is bad, but we still need them’. 

Important to point out that the west isn't the entire world 

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

41 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

The Kremlin states they are not targeting civilians.

 

Given the carnage we are seeing on our TV screens does this mean Putin has no control over his military?

 

We already know he can't be trusted.

One thing I would say about this is we didn't target civilians in the Iraq war yet killed scores of them, blew schools and hospitals to kingdom come etc. 

[MPH]

 

genuine question…. Whilst we are a member of NATO, can we operate under a different guise too?

 

im NOT suggesting troops on the ground, but under the E.U or even under the British flag can we supply some extra drones some more invasive defensive weaponry? Some heavy missles?

[BlueSi13]

Talk of WW3 or nuclear was is a non-starter.  For multiple reasons.

 

The 1st in that in a conventional war against a fully mobilised west.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 2nd in that in a nuclear war, the west's nuclear arsenal is 3 times larger than Russia.  Russia won't be able to nuke the entire west before she is wiped off the face of the earth.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 3rd is that even if Putin tried to start something, he would be overthrown, the Russian high command won't want to see their children turned to ash, or the country blown away in a full scale war.  

 

What is more likely to happen is that this potentially becomes another Afghanistan for the Russians or they continue the barbaric bombing campaign to force the Ukrainians to capitulate in talks.

 

If Russia does succeed militarily though, there's no way things return to normal.  The sanctions will remain and Russia will be frozen out of the overwhelming majority of developed countries around the world.  How long will China be willing to bankroll their bankrupt frozen partner in the North?  

 

Putin could end up being the Mussolini to Xi's Hitler.  

[Trumpet]

3 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Talk of WW3 or nuclear was is a non-starter.  For multiple reasons.

 

The 1st in that in a conventional war against a fully mobilised west.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 2nd in that in a nuclear war, the west's nuclear arsenal is 3 times larger than Russia.  Russia won't be able to nuke the entire west before she is wiped off the face of the earth.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 3rd is that even if Putin tried to start something, he would be overthrown, the Russian high command won't want to see their children turned to ash, or the country blown away in a full scale war.  

 

What is more likely to happen is that this potentially becomes another Afghanistan for the Russians or they continue the barbaric bombing campaign to force the Ukrainians to capitulate in talks.

 

If Russia does succeed militarily though, there's no way things return to normal.  The sanctions will remain and Russia will be frozen out of the overwhelming majority of developed countries around the world.  How long will China be willing to bankroll their bankrupt frozen partner in the North?  

 

Putin could end up being the Mussolini to Xi's Hitler.  

Nobody would win in a nuclear war, we’d all lose. 
 

My worry with your third point is it’s a gamble. At this point we’re relying on someone stepping in. Putin has no doubt made that difficult by creating an inner circle of the same ideology and also the chain of people needed to make a nuclear strike possible would no doubt have been meticulously selected. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and there would be an intervention of sorts, though it’s not the kind of territory I’d be comfortable in.

 

Anyone else feel sick to the gut with all of this?

[The Fox Covert]

2 hours ago, bovril said:

Christ, Johnson actually says something sensible

It took a very brave, emotional and intelligent Ukrainian journalist to have a real go at him. In the Commons he can act shifty and talk sh1t, but this woman would not let him get away with a thing and for the first time he looked genuinely shaken,

[String fellow]

It's an impossible situation for the West to deal with now. The Russians love chess. They think strategically and they think ahead. The only way it could have been stopped would have been for Biden himself to have visited Moscow back in early February, when US intelligence knew what Mad Vlad was planning. Once there, he should made made veiled threats about the outcome of such an invasion, to leave the Russians uncertain as to what to expect in response. Instead, it was made clear from the outset that NATO wouldn't defend Ukraine. That was essentially the green light for an invasion. We gambled on Vlad being sane and humane, but just like Hitler, he's become a monster. 

[thursday_next]

56 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

a lot of Americans seem to have  an “economy first”  ideology to their thinking and voting. ‘  A strong economy will take care of everything else.’ We are already seeing $4 a gallon here for the first time since I moved here 12 years ago so I’m absolutely certain that  the 34% are worried as to how it will effect the American economy.

 

I'd guess you're right. Not only the economy, or the inflation, there's also a bunch of people who believe whatever Trump says, people who can't stand Biden, Christers who believe that this is Revelation come to pass as a punishment for women who dare to have abortions, and the Whoopi Goldberg view that it's a struggle between white people most of whom are probably racist anyway, so it doesn't count    

[The Fox Covert]

15 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Talk of WW3 or nuclear was is a non-starter.  For multiple reasons.

 

The 1st in that in a conventional war against a fully mobilised west.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 2nd in that in a nuclear war, the west's nuclear arsenal is 3 times larger than Russia.  Russia won't be able to nuke the entire west before she is wiped off the face of the earth.  Russia loses.  Badly.

 

The 3rd is that even if Putin tried to start something, he would be overthrown, the Russian high command won't want to see their children turned to ash, or the country blown away in a full scale war.  

 

What is more likely to happen is that this potentially becomes another Afghanistan for the Russians or they continue the barbaric bombing campaign to force the Ukrainians to capitulate in talks.

 

If Russia does succeed militarily though, there's no way things return to normal.  The sanctions will remain and Russia will be frozen out of the overwhelming majority of developed countries around the world.  How long will China be willing to bankroll their bankrupt frozen partner in the North?  

 

Putin could end up being the Mussolini to Xi's Hitler.  

Ukraine is actually very well connected to the West through the millions of people of Ukrainian birth or descent who have left their country. Ukraine has also had 30 years of freedom from Russian rule, so anyone under 40 has no direct knowledge of anything else. Ukraine has also prepared very well against attack since the annexation of Crimea and the eastern provinces in 2014. They have conscription, an army several times the size of the UK and every household has a gun in the broom cupboard. My best guess is that if Putin attempts to impose a puppet regime in Kyiv he will end up with the constant threat of armed struggle and insurrection in Ukraine, which will reinforce the case for continued sanctions against Russia. One way or another, Putin probably thought Ukraine 2022 would be a re-run of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. All over in a few days. This time it won't be.

[Scotch]

2 hours ago, Blarmy said:

Can’t special forces from multiple countries get in there? I fully understand that we cannot overtly get involved, so how about covertly? It’s what special forces do - have an impact without needing external communications or supplies.

 

Apologies it this comes off as naive but watching this unfold is distressing. 

I agree. Obviously becoming PHYSICALLY involved is out of the question due to the chain of events that would unfold but watching that giant convoy heading towards Kyiev, it must be extremely testing not to just send a few fighter jets to demolish it there and then. 

[ClaphamFox]

4 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Ukraine is actually very well connected to the West through the millions of people of Ukrainian birth or descent who have left their country. Ukraine has also had 30 years of freedom from Russian rule, so anyone under 40 has no direct knowledge of anything else. Ukraine has also prepared very well against attack since the annexation of Crimea and the eastern provinces in 2014. They have conscription, an army several times the size of the UK and every household has a gun in the broom cupboard. My best guess is that if Putin attempts to impose a puppet regime in Kyiv he will end up with the constant threat of armed struggle and insurrection in Ukraine, which will reinforce the case for continued sanctions against Russia. One way or another, Putin probably thought Ukraine 2022 would be a re-run of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. All over in a few days. This time it won't be.

This is exactly what will happen. There is not a chance in hell that Ukraine will accept just being folded back into Russia's sphere of influence. The insurrection will be long and bloody, forcing Russia to spend billions fighting a war it cannot win, as in Afghanistan. And just as Afghanistan helped to bring down the communist regime, this war will bring down Putin sooner or later. 

Edited 1 March 2022 by ClaphamFox