gw_leics772 Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 2 hours ago, StanSP said: Jonathan Pearce on West Ham's commentary on MOTD said that 35 points on average for the last 10 seasons has been enough to stay up. Two more wins. I think we'll beat Everton, and then it's most likely one win needed from the rest, which I think will be against West Ham but hopefully it comes sooner! Perhaps there's a draw against Fulham and/or Liverpool to help the cause? I'm quite relaxed atm that well stay up, but it all really hinges on Everton match (despite when I looked, mathematically and even logically it is still doable BUT it's the confidence side that will **** us there imo) Anyway, what I really want to say is that I don't share the general optimism shown on ft that we will beat west ham. So many memories of us making them look like prime barca when they have been dogshit everywhere else. Regardless of whether the stats back this up, they feel like a bogey side and I never feel confident of a result against them. Beat Everton and I'm going Southampton, Everton, Leeds. Always thought Forest had shock results in them like beating Brighton, and still think they'll get another despite stinking the place out in general. 1
gw_leics772 Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 2 hours ago, JimJams said: Dirty bugger. Looks head to toe like childhood sleepovers with a pillow/cushion barrier down the middle. Take your filthy minf elsewhere, it's all clean and innocent here. 😇😂
The Doctor Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 50 minutes ago, LboroLeeds said: Really interesting reading the Leicester perspective. From what I saw vs Wolves and 2nd half v us you've get plenty in your locker to stay up, some very talented players. Dunno what you guys think about Vardy these days but for me if he's fit you play him, always looks like a goal threat with his movement and finishing... couldn't believe that was his first in 19 or something 😳 I would say you will beat Everton as they are poor... but then so are we 🤷♂️ I know it's bad but I had to stifle a laugh at how bad our players were at times on Tuesday, proper shake of the head moments. Fwiw there's no way we beat Bournemouth which we have to do to have any hope at all. Nothing but defeats from City, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs... you saw the quality of our players on Tuesday so you you'll know. Frankly, just want the season to end, whatever happens. Its miserable! looked past it for most of the season, although in fairness he did in Puels season in charge as well. a lot better Tuesday night but needs more of that before I lean towards it being the fault of Poundland David Brent rather than Father Time finally catching up with a man who's blood stream is 70% red bull.
Gamble92 Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 1 hour ago, Ric Flair said: I'd want to go down if I were Everton and drain the swamp. I think another year of this from us and I'd want the same for us, I've major concerns we don't learn from this if we do get out of it. I think we've ruined most of what we'd built under Vichai and Top. I've put a picture of Rudkin on the bullseye of my Leicester City dartboard. I suggest it for light therapy to all those struggling at the moment.
Finnegan Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 3 hours ago, StanSP said: Jonathan Pearce on West Ham's commentary on MOTD said that 35 points on average for the last 10 seasons has been enough to stay up. Two more wins. I think we'll beat Everton, and then it's most likely one win needed from the rest, which I think will be against West Ham but hopefully it comes sooner! Perhaps there's a draw against Fulham and/or Liverpool to help the cause? If we beat Everton with Forest and Leeds both losing this weekend, I'll definitely calm down a bit. Especially if we look fairly comfortable and confident doing it. In a normal season, you'd be looking at a run like "Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), WHU (H)" expecting us to pick up 6 or 7 points in that easily. Even Newcastle, as good as their form has been this year, confident and in good form they're a team we're more than capable of taking points off. I'd be annoyed if we go to Fulham away and play West Ham at home and don't take at least 4 points from those two, even in our current form. So yeah I definitely think a win on Monday is huge. Losing would probably send me off a cliff though
StanSP Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 1 minute ago, Finnegan said: If we beat Everton with Forest and Leeds both losing this weekend, I'll definitely calm down a bit. Especially if we look fairly comfortable and confident doing it. In a normal season, you'd be looking at a run like "Fulham (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), WHU (H)" expecting us to pick up 6 or 7 points in that easily. Even Newcastle, as good as their form has been this year, confident and in good form they're a team we're more than capable of taking points off. I'd be annoyed if we go to Fulham away and play West Ham at home and don't take at least 4 points from those two, even in our current form. So yeah I definitely think a win on Monday is huge. Losing would probably send me off a cliff though So much hinges on Monday's game. Not even just on the pitch, but for confidence reasons heading into the final four, and also giving fans a lot of hope that this squad is growing its spine and growing some balls again. it's the biggest game of the season to date. 4
Mark_w Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 6 hours ago, Paninistickers said: I would be staggered if Leeds got 39 points. They looked shot against us on Tuesday. Largely outplayed. But for a calamitous 2 mins from us at the end, they offered nothing. I think the Bournemouth game Saturday determines Leeds' fate. They are under huge pressure to win it. I don't think they are capable. And I think Bournemouth are too good for them Not saying it's likely or that I think it will happen, but it's plausible. They're not incapable of beating Bournemouth, West Ham and (assuming they still have something to bottle) Tottenham. I'd rather be pessimistic and pleasantly surprised than assume everyone else is dropping points that they go on to get. 1
escape2victory Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 I think 36 points with our healthy goal difference will be enough. So 2 wins and a draw. Would mean Forest and Leeds would need 7 points from their 5 games to get above us. One of them might, but can’t see them both getting 7+ points. 3
dannythefox Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 5 hours ago, StanSP said: Jonathan Pearce on West Ham's commentary on MOTD said that 35 points on average for the last 10 seasons has been enough to stay up. Two more wins. I think we'll beat Everton, and then it's most likely one win needed from the rest, which I think will be against West Ham but hopefully it comes sooner! Perhaps there's a draw against Fulham and/or Liverpool to help the cause? We’ll in the last 4 seasons only one team have stayed up on 35 with 16th placed on 39. Personally I think we need 9 points to guarantee it.
gw_leics772 Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 4 hours ago, Ric Flair said: I'd want to go down if I were Everton and drain the swamp. I think another year of this from us and I'd want the same for us, I've major concerns we don't learn from this if we do get out of it. I think we've ruined most of what we'd built under Vichai and Top. Same fears as Everton though, (albeit hopefully on a smaller scale) going down could financially bend us over big time.
Gerard Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 On 27/04/2023 at 09:58, STEVIE B said: For what it's worth, l have us surviving on GD, with 34 pts. Saints, Leeds & Everton to drop. On my crappy little model which assumes the bottom five are equal in ability and it's about the quality of the teams to face I have us staying up on GD as well: Leicester 34.5 Leeds 34.5 ------------------------------- Forest 34.5 Everton 32 Southampton 28
Gerard Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 4 hours ago, LboroLeeds said: Really interesting reading the Leicester perspective. From what I saw vs Wolves and 2nd half v us you've get plenty in your locker to stay up, some very talented players. Dunno what you guys think about Vardy these days but for me if he's fit you play him, always looks like a goal threat with his movement and finishing... couldn't believe that was his first in 19 or something 😳 I would say you will beat Everton as they are poor... but then so are we 🤷♂️ I know it's bad but I had to stifle a laugh at how bad our players were at times on Tuesday, proper shake of the head moments. Fwiw there's no way we beat Bournemouth which we have to do to have any hope at all. Nothing but defeats from City, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs... you saw the quality of our players on Tuesday so you you'll know. Frankly, just want the season to end, whatever happens. Its miserable! The thing is we're all really poor. Forest 1 win in 12 Leicester 1 win in 11 Everton 1 win in 10 Leeds 1 win in 6 It now looks highly likely that Southampton have gone and any 2 from 4. All games are massive now but Leicester vs Everton up next especially. Everton look as good as gone if they lose but if Leicester win I think we're reasonably comfortable and if we lose it will be precarious but not quite sunk yet. Leeds away at Bournemouth looks ominous because Leeds have Man City (a) and Newcastle (h) after that so they really need to go to Bournemouth and not get beat. I think it will be a reasonable week for Forest if they match the result of Leeds this week even if it's a defeat. They'll probably want us to beat Everton in that scenario as well and put all their eggs in the finish above Leeds and Everton basket.
gw_leics772 Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 5 hours ago, LboroLeeds said: Really interesting reading the Leicester perspective. From what I saw vs Wolves and 2nd half v us you've get plenty in your locker to stay up, some very talented players. Dunno what you guys think about Vardy these days but for me if he's fit you play him, always looks like a goal threat with his movement and finishing... couldn't believe that was his first in 19 or something 😳 I would say you will beat Everton as they are poor... but then so are we 🤷♂️ I know it's bad but I had to stifle a laugh at how bad our players were at times on Tuesday, proper shake of the head moments. Fwiw there's no way we beat Bournemouth which we have to do to have any hope at all. Nothing but defeats from City, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs... you saw the quality of our players on Tuesday so you you'll know. Frankly, just want the season to end, whatever happens. Its miserable! Thanks for this, always interesting to hear outside perspectives, from people who actually watch rather than the waffletoss spouted by commentators who still think we play like we did when we won the league. I think it also proves that we are always more negative about our own team as, to your own quality, you were better than I thought you'd be. Granted, the quality of finishing for that Bamford effort was atrocious but you created chances imo of the sort that we always say "if they had a better striker/so and so was in better form, we'd be buried by now. /We were lucky" type comments when referring to our own team. (whilst conveniently forgetting that meslier was the subject of intense discussion pre match for his poor form and turned into prime ****ing nauer) I do think you're as good as gone though based purely on the fact that we were your easiest game from your run in, and even though we are improving (from a very low starting point) your comments support the view that we can make most teams look better than they normally do.
ithuriel Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 Everton games pivotal, need to get something from that, lose and I think it's done. 1
Beachyboy Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, dannythefox said: We’ll in the last 4 seasons only one team have stayed up on 35 with 16th placed on 39. Personally I think we need 9 points to guarantee it. When I said 8 points, or 3 wins to be sure. The response I got is know way are we getting that, but I can see wins from Everton ,Fulham and West Ham. Like when we play Liverpool we are usually better against West ham at Home. Edited 28 April 2023 by Beachyboy
TJQuik Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 (edited) The other thread prompted me to rewatch the final for the millionth time. I still can't believe we did it. It's easy to be jealous of clubs like Brighton who have taken our place as well run underdogs, but we actually won the league AND the cup in an era where clubs are owned by oil states. No one can take that away from us. Before the match I was obviously desperate for us to get over the line but pretty much expected Chelsea to win it. I think the best thing to do is have the same mindset with this season. If we manage to stay up I'll rank it up there with one of our greatest achievements. Edited 28 April 2023 by TJQuik 1
Fox 4 Life Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 I wish I had as much confidence in us as the bookies, still 5th most likely to drop at 6/4 with the other 4 teams odds on. Is it fixtures, our "quality" players or just ignorance because I don't see it being that simple.
Gerard Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 6 minutes ago, Fox 4 Life said: I wish I had as much confidence in us as the bookies, still 5th most likely to drop at 6/4 with the other 4 teams odds on. Is it fixtures, our "quality" players or just ignorance because I don't see it being that simple. Which team do you think in the bottom five have a better chance of staying up than us and I will make the case against it. This is the implied chances on Betfair of each team being relegated. We all look in weak positions but we're the most likely to get out of it because we probably have the easiest fixtures and the higher quality players. It will all change dramatically for us if there is a winner in our match versus Everton on Monday. Leicester 35% Leeds 48.5% --------------------------------- Forest 54% Everton 63% Southampton 95%
Aus Fox Posted 28 April 2023 Posted 28 April 2023 54 minutes ago, Fox 4 Life said: I wish I had as much confidence in us as the bookies, still 5th most likely to drop at 6/4 with the other 4 teams odds on. Is it fixtures, our "quality" players or just ignorance because I don't see it being that simple. The best thing about the bookies is they take all of the emotion out of it. They’re not like all of us that are invested and look at every permeation, often on the negative side. They just look at the black and white and basically, them getting in correct and setting their odds accordingly to ensure maximum profits. 2
ramaiya2 Posted 29 April 2023 Posted 29 April 2023 Crystal Palace beat West Ham, imo, West Ham are still in the relegation dog fight, Man City next and Man UTD after that. 1
JimJams Posted 29 April 2023 Posted 29 April 2023 We basically want home wins across the board for any games involving those in the scrap.
Lambert09 Posted 29 April 2023 Posted 29 April 2023 obviously anything can happen but in terms of expected winnable games forest have 4 leeds have 2 we have 3 everton have 3 southampton have 2 leede bmouth is huuuuge
Nalis Posted 29 April 2023 Posted 29 April 2023 (edited) On 28/04/2023 at 12:39, StanSP said: So much hinges on Monday's game. Not even just on the pitch, but for confidence reasons heading into the final four, and also giving fans a lot of hope that this squad is growing its spine and growing some balls again. it's the biggest game of the season to date. Bang on. In terms of points we could recover from a defeat and would only be 2 points behind them. But in terms of confidence if we aren't beating or at least drawing against Everton at home then we'd have no confidence getting anything from the final 4 games. Edited 29 April 2023 by Nalis
Ashdav86 Posted 29 April 2023 Posted 29 April 2023 Wouldn't discount west ham think we could still get more points than them The trouble is we're built for European football not a relegation battle Good on the ball and some individual moments of brilliance. But poor off the ball and terrible at defending set pieces If It's not done by the last game. West ham will send us down scoring from a corner. And it will this season be probably deserved.
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