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SpacedX

Hurricane Ian

By SpacedX, in General Chat

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SpacedX

SpacedX

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This could be the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the US in the last 30 years. At this intensity it would become the fifth most powerful hurricane to strike the United States in more than 150 years of records when it slams into the Southwest Florida coast in a few hours. It is only currently 2mph away from being upgraded to a Category 5. The concern is that the bays of the Florida peninsula - in this case most likely Fort Meyers/Charlotte County area - are shallow and have the potential to generate devastating storm surges. It combines all three main threats, high winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges. There is also a possibility that it could stall off the coast as was the case with Darian over the Bahamas in 2019. Ian began to weaken somewhat yesterday following the interaction with Cuba but it also underwent an "eyewall replacement cycle," in which the centremost bands of the storm contract and are replaced by a new ring of storms farther out. Often this process undermines the strength of a storm, but Ian has a second wind - unfortunate pun intended. This is terrifying 

 

 

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SpacedX

SpacedX

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1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Saw it mentioned the other day but didn't realise the magnitude of it all and the devastating impact it could potentially cause. 

 

Are we talking worse than Hurricane Katrina? 

It has the potential to be, yes. That was Category 4 at landfall. The storm surge overwhelmed the levee system which was supposed to protect the New Orleans inundating 80% of the municipal area - although engineers had warned for years that they were not sufficient and a disaster was imminent. 

 

The coastal morphology of Fort Meyers/Charlotte County, being a shallow bay and a narrow inlet has the potential to funnel a devastating storm surge inland. It was originally looking as though it would result in a direct hit on Tampa Bay, but this area is similar in that it is low lying and although the housing is not as neglected and impoverished as large tracts of housing in the Lower Ninth Ward and Lakeview or as acutely vulnerable - the similarities are enough. It’s an estuary, and it’s very similar to what happened with Lake Pontchartrain during Hurricane Katrina. Once water gets into that area, it has nowhere else to go. If it stalls, then the impact is more prolonged. There are beaches on the West Florida coastline with very expensive real estate perched right on top of them at the mercy of the water. This could be devastation on par with Hurricane Andrew 30 years ago. 

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SpacedX

SpacedX

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14 minutes ago, String fellow said:

We'll probably see high winds and rain here in the UK on Friday as the jet stream brings the low pressure across the Atlantic. 

That is already forecast largely as a consequence of the strengthened jet stream from Hurricane Ian, but sweeping in and fuelling an unrelated Atlantic low.  

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Izzy

Izzy

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I know it's scary for those affected and I wouldn't want to be in Florida right now, but when I see images like this I think "fvck me, it's incredible what mother nature is capable of sometimes"

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Wymsey

Wymsey

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3 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I know it's scary for those affected and I wouldn't want to be in Florida right now, but when I see images like this I think "fvck me, it's incredible what mother nature is capable of sometimes"

Definitely.

 

Imagine if this sort of thing happens in the UK; most places will be quite ill-prepared for such situations.

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rachhere

rachhere

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20 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I know it's scary for those affected and I wouldn't want to be in Florida right now, but when I see images like this I think "fvck me, it's incredible what mother nature is capable of sometimes"

It's the weirdest of emotions as I am just SO fascinated by it all, but at the same time you have to check yourself and remember the reality of the situation

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rachhere

rachhere

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6 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

Might be opening myself up to ridicule here but what causes some continents and countries to be  more prone to extreme weather such as hurricanes and tornados?

I think predominantly because of the warmer waters. I am sure it’s more complex than that, but I think that’s the key factor. I am sure a geography expert will be along shortly!

 

just googled - warm waters, moist airs (so tropical conditions) and winds are they key factors apparently 

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leicsmac

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4 hours ago, Izzy said:

I know it's scary for those affected and I wouldn't want to be in Florida right now, but when I see images like this I think "fvck me, it's incredible what mother nature is capable of sometimes"

I don't think it's a bad thing to consider that at all.

 

Perhaps if people took what nature can do more seriously for more time then we wouldn't be in a situation where events like these could well become more frequent and more intense.

 

NB. On a similar note, it is darkly amusing to see the Florida governor who has shown that disregard for nature many times in the past now shitting his drawers in the face of it and begging the federal government that he hates for help and attention.

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SpacedX

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8 hours ago, foxfanazer said:

Might be opening myself up to ridicule here but what causes some continents and countries to be  more prone to extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes and tornados?

As has been mentioned, predominately sea/ocean temperatures but also air temperature and humidity are also important factors. As the sea surface is warmed, powerful convective currents cause rising air to draw water vapour up from the ocean. The vapor condenses in clouds releasing more heat, warming the eye and evaporating more surface water which perpetuates and increases the hurricane's heat engine, continuing the cycle. This is why they will tend to weaken post-landfall. Hurricanes (and in the southern hemisphere, cyclones) are created over warm tropical oceans although in the UK we can experience the remnants of these systems and most notably, in the case of October 1987, hurricane force winds. As our climate changes, warming waters in the North Atlantic could result in hurricanes retaining their intensity over greater distances, increasing the frequency with which such ‘super storms’ occur in western Europe.

 

There are typically about 30 tornadoes reported every year in the UK, but these tend to be small and short-lived. The USA The United States experiences the most 'twisters' of any country in the world: Since 1990, in excess of 1,000 per year have been reported. This high frequency is largely in the Mid West where the topography and meteorology of the Prairies/Great Plains are home to Tornado Alley in which winds from the Gulf of Mexico and the Rocky Mountains come together to create the perfect conditions for funneling them down the central spine of the continent.

 

In the US, tornado season in spring and the arrival of warmer spring temperatures battling with colder air. This clash can create huge F5 tornadoes, most recently the Moore tornado in 2013.

 

Hurricane season in Florida is June - November. The peak for tropical development is mid-August to mid-October when sea temperatures are highest, with the most intense storms tending to form in September.

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