Did the club gamble and overreach?

[Gamble92]

To be fair at the time the Rodgers contract extension looked a no brainer. It's very easy with hindsight to say we shouldn't have done it, but even all the way up to the FA Cup win it looked inevitable someone would come in for him. Even now he somehow manages to spin things to his tune. On Talksport for instance, a caller rang up saying he's so let down by the club and all he got back was "lots of junuries, mid table about where you belong". 

 

The targets we had before the title win were still signed after the title win. No one who come in that summer looked like a title winning signing. You can put the start of the decline firmly at that point. We then benefitted from the fact we were the only ones with the ability to spend so much outside the top 6 because of our sales. We recruited very well under Puel and then signings since have been utterly shambolic. 

 

Someone really needs to ask Brendan why with the 7th biggest wage bill in England, and as the 4th best paid manager, he feels like he doesn't have the resources.

[Heathrow fox]

42 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

I'm no scout I'm afraid, better ask @Ric Flairon that one. 

 

And sure, that's always the calculation but clubs do it all the time, it just other clubs have owners that will put hands in their pockets to rectify the short downturns. We have Billionaire Owners, at one point we were high in the rankings of wealthiest owners. Investment gets you everywhere, remember when Man City were disappearing into the football league? Sure, they had real wealth but they also managed to attract the players when they were on their way out of the hole, not just when they got there. I'm just saying a few seasons of all out investment after winning the title could have cemented the club in the upper echelons (would have required investing winnings plus owners own money). Of course, we might have chucked money at it and still failed, but thats the game.

 

Some clubs like Villa, West Ham, Spurs et Al chuck money at it regardless of league position and still come up short, but at the time we had some of the best recruitment going, the best medical staff going...so many ifs, buts and maybes.

 

Right now this club needs MASSIVE investment. We aren't getting it, so really it shouldn't come as any surprise that we are where we are. 

Tanks for the reply.I think it’s important to remember that we broke the transfer record three times that Summer.Doubling and trebling it in the process.Ok we had the C/L and Kante cash to dive into.It was still a huge outlay.I’m sure the club thought it was money well spent.They knew we needed European experience ASAP and the recruitment team had obviously tracked Mendy and Musa for months.We nearly signed Mendy the year before.

I remember reading in the Daily Star (I know) That we were in for both Slim and Silva in a €50Million double swoop and thinking wow LCFC and €50Million.There must have been some truth in it as Silva turned up the next season.On paper they looked decent signings Lol.How many mistakes like that can you make before you put the club in serious peril.I don’t believe we got our money back on Musa either.The owners probably don’t want to spunk millions into a black hole and I don’t blame them.

[ozleicester]

It seems we paid wages banking on CL, The players we are less than happy with now, wouldve been our squad players and perfectly adequate IF we had made CL and bought wisely....the income wouldve bankrolled moving lesser players on and buying better ones. Missing TWICE when we were well placed is the major problem.

[FoxTimmy2]

16 minutes ago, ozleicester said:

It seems we paid wages banking on CL, The players we are less than happy with now, wouldve been our squad players and perfectly adequate IF we had made CL and bought wisely....the income wouldve bankrolled moving lesser players on and buying better ones. Missing TWICE when we were well placed is the major problem.

The club is paying CL wages for players that are performing like low-mid table championship side. At £85M/year, relegation would bankrupt us without the much needed PL revenue.

[STUHILL]

Also have to factor in King Power and Top's duty free empire likely being stung badddd by Covid!

 

Getting Champions League money and potentially a player or two attracted by that, would have been amazing, however, it certainly wouldn't have guaranteed a different outcome. We probably would have been knocked out early and we all know how expensive signings can often turn out #Slimani/Silva

 

You could also argue we didn't overreach enough, when we had a real opportunity to cement ourselves as a top 6 team, at least in the short term (3-5 years) 

Long-term however, you only have to look at the same old 6 clubs that have the mega rich owners and huge sponsorship deals and ability to consistently attract or take the best players away from us. 

 

I think realistically, our current long-term aim is going to be a top 7-10 premier league team, with the ability to win a cup occasionally. 

Top just doesn't have the wealth to compete with the biggest clubs on a consistent basis. If anything, he may not even have the wealth to compete with the 7-10 clubs either with the way things are going. 

 

It has been an epic journey though and we really did stick it to the big boys! 

 

Either going to need an incredible manager and some gems in the transfer market Kante/Mahrez style OR a new owner with much deeper pockets!

 

Otherwise, 7th-10th is our new ceiling... and our floor.. Don't want to think about that! 

 

 

[MPH]

I wouldn’t say we gambled and overreached but it’s probably no coincidence that things started to go wrong soon after Vichai died. Having said that we did win the FA cup, however I feel like that masked a steady decline in decision making and thus on field performances..

[eastendfox]

Like which other club managed to break the top four regularly? Sorry, we're just the latest of a line of clubs who over-achieved, and whether we'd have got into the CL another time or not wouldn't have changed a thing. Eventually you have to regroup, as we're now doing. They were good times, no, they were great times, we won the FA Cup, got to a European semi-final, scored 5 at Man City, and so on. Just never going to last, but hopefully we can build again in the future.

[MattFox]

8 hours ago, Freeman's Wharfer said:

No. We didn’t gamble enough.

 

Either January that season an extra £30m would have made a world of difference.

Signing Ryan Bennett January 2020 when we were on the verge of CL was tragic

[Mike Oxlong]

The problems are simple and often repeated on here 

 

- recruitment 

- coaching 

- squad management 

- injury prevention and management 

- board level decision making 

 

Should be easily fixed 

 

On the plus side, there aren’t many clubs that give their fans a free coconut 

[lcfc old boy]

8 hours ago, Mr Weller 2 said:

There are way too many emotional posts on here right now. Everyone is hugely disappointed so it’s understandable but now is definitely not the best time for drawing long term conclusions.

 

You could make a case for it all going wrong since 2016 or it being our best ever era, depending on your mood and the latest result. Just accept we’re on a bad run.

the football club cannot just accept we are on a bad run if they do we will go down, 

[RoboFox]

Only now are we feeling the full repercussions from bottling the CL.

[Mark_w]

6 hours ago, MPH said:

I wouldn’t say we gambled and overreached but it’s probably no coincidence that things started to go wrong soon after Vichai died. Having said that we did win the FA cup, however I feel like that masked a steady decline in decision making and thus on field performances..

I think the implication that everything was going great before Vichai died and then we started to decline is rewriting history a bit. Our recruitment felt a little bit better, but it didn’t feel like we had any coherent philosophy on the pitch or with managerial appointments for quite a while. We had been very mediocre until Brendan took over after Vichai died, and then very much improved to get those two 5th place finishes and the cup win. That’s not all down to Brendan obviously, and we benefited from good previous recruitment, but we looked like we were regressing for at least a year or so before Vichai died.

[STUHILL]

We absolutely overachieved and so there was always going to be a drop from those highs. It was just how big a drop would it be. I think most sensible fans can begrudgingly accept going from winning the league, the FA cup and x2 5th place finishes, to a comfortable top 10 team, with decent chances of finishing with European football and good cup runs. However, to now already be in a relegation mix and no clear plan moving forward with worse to come in terms of squad quality with Tielemans going, Maddison likely too and Vardy/Evans well past their best - That is a dramatic drop and should not have happened. 

Rodgers needs to go firstly. Then we need Top to give the new manager £100 million over this window and the next. It might not be enough, but I can't see how we survive this season or next without that kind of realistic investment in the squad. 

[CosbehFox]

31 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

I think the implication that everything was going great before Vichai died and then we started to decline is rewriting history a bit. Our recruitment felt a little bit better, but it didn’t feel like we had any coherent philosophy on the pitch or with managerial appointments for quite a while. We had been very mediocre until Brendan took over after Vichai died, and then very much improved to get those two 5th place finishes and the cup win. That’s not all down to Brendan obviously, and we benefited from good previous recruitment, but we looked like we were regressing for at least a year or so before Vichai died.

I think that's a bit unfair on Puel - the football was at times bloody awful but he did a reasonable job in evolving a squad away from the title winning side. We had a cohesion in how we traded. Player would sign a year before in that position before another players departure etc. 

Edited 11 January 2023 by CosbehFox

[Captain...]

It's difficult to say everything the club does is a gamble, we have up until recently got more right than wrong. The training centre and stadium expansion are all investments that will pay off over time. The problem with football is you can invest millions in players and they get injured or don't perform as expected or their form drops off a cliff. Did we gamble too much or not enough? Who knows but right now we are in a rut and we need to get out fast sacking Rodgers will also be a gamble we could get someone worse, although I'm not sure it could get much worse to be honest.

Edited 11 January 2023 by Captain...

[STUHILL]

29 minutes ago, Captain... said:

It's difficult to say everything the club does is a gamble, we have up until recently got more right than wrong. The training centre and stadium expansion are all investments that will pay off over time. The problem with football is you can invest millions in players and they get injured or don't perform as expected or their form drops off a cliff. Did we gamble too much or not enough? Who knows but right now we are in a rut and we need to get out fast sacking Rodgers will also be a gamble we could get someone worse, although I'm not sure it could get much worse to be honest.

We definitely got more right than wrong, whether by luck or just being well run. Maybe a bit both, as with most things! 

 

To get out this rut, we probably do need a fair dose of luck with our next manager. He really needs to get off to a flying start and take us well away from the danger.

 

We also need to clear out the deadwood (as always!) and Top needs to inject some serious money into the squad, especially with Tielemans and Maddison inevitable exits. 

[Beachyboy]

20 hours ago, Gamble92 said:

To be fair at the time the Rodgers contract extension looked a no brainer. It's very easy with hindsight to say we shouldn't have done it, but even all the way up to the FA Cup win it looked inevitable someone would come in for him. Even now he somehow manages to spin things to his tune. On Talksport for instance, a caller rang up saying he's so let down by the club and all he got back was "lots of junuries, mid table about where you belong". 

 

The targets we had before the title win were still signed after the title win. No one who come in that summer looked like a title winning signing. You can put the start of the decline firmly at that point. We then benefitted from the fact we were the only ones with the ability to spend so much outside the top 6 because of our sales. We recruited very well under Puel and then signings since have been utterly shambolic. 

 

Someone really needs to ask Brendan why with the 7th biggest wage bill in England, and as the 4th best paid manager, he feels like he doesn't have the resources.

He'd say the squad are possibly being overpaid, but I'm a decent coach.

[FLAN]

Would glover have left Southampton to come here in the knowledge there is no money to spend therefore making his job almost impossible?  

[deanolegend1989]

On 10/01/2023 at 23:54, Dan LCFC said:

I think the club fell into a huge trap in November 2019 with the contract they gave to Rodgers. They bought into him far greater than they should've done when they had put something good in place in the first place, that was able to pull Rodgers out of a genuinely decent job in Celtic. It's like they lost their nerve and allowed him to shape things far greater than any manager should've been able to given we were going through a period of good recruitment. They buckled under the Arsenal rumours and made him virtually unsackable. That contract has eventually tied him to us despite the fact the fans want him out, despite the fact he also blatantly wants out, and it still has another two and a half bloody years to run. They paid him thinking they had genuinely attracted a world class manager of the Pep / Klopp mould. They were wrong. That gamble was either a delusion of his ability, or the club having no faith in themselves to be able to replenish if he did go.

 

None of this would have happened under a wise owner or competent director of football. We rotted the roots of this tree a while ago - you're now finally seeing the reality and it's grim to watch. We aren't irrecoverable, but it's becoming clearer and clearer each passing day of this month particularly while our less threatened rivals do business more effectively than us, that we have neither the urgency, or the knowhow to turn things around.

 

It was a fun ride but we're down within three years. I'll be genuinely surprised if not. We are banking on Martyn Glover and Jon Rudkin performing better than they ever have done. I'm not sure we're going to quite luck it out again.

This.

Spot on. It all started with this. I was on here a lot in 2020/2021 getting pelters for suggesting Brendan was overrated and he was living off the quality squad we had, now it has all shown up.

The reality is 2019 we had built a fantastic young squad that every manager wanted our job. Prime Ricardo and Chillwell at fullbacks, a midfield triangle of prime Wilf and a young Tillemans/madders who are only going to get better and a world class rampant Vards up front. 19/20 season we 100% should of got top 4, we were in fact the 3rd best team in the league that year and Chelsea being so weak with a transfer ban and a useless Man Utd team under Ole meant the door was open and we blew it.

We started like a house on fire but firstly, as you said above, giving Brendan that huge contract was mental. Not even hindsight either, I remember vividly at the time thinking 'Really? the job isnt even done yet..thats not like our owners to make silly decisions, I trust they know what there doing'. Vichai wouldnt of allowed that I dont think.

Big gamble which was stupid before we had achieved CL football. If he left for Arsenal who cares, the squad we had was the reason and at that time we'd of got another manager in of quality as we'd of been an attractive option at that point.

Absolutely no reason to get desperate with such an average manager just because we won 8 in a row and looked great because we had such a good squad.

 

This was definitely the start of what we are seeing now and it didnt help that almost straight away we hit a brick wall in form, Vards pulled up vs Liverpool on new years day and was never prime Vardy again, Ricardo broke his leg and then lock down stopped which I seem to remember helped Utd get injuries back from the break and didnt help us.

It also hurt King Power at the pocket due to lockdown which means a number of events and issues all came at the same time to put huge pressure now on achieving CL football for the money.

We blew it by a combination of injuries, poor management and bottle, so it felt like we missed our chance.

The summer of 20/21 though was the anomaly. Signing Castange and Fofana both great signings was great business and helped booster the squad for 20/21. We were not as fluent as 19/20 due to Chillwell leaving, Ricardo broken leg and Vards past his raw peak - all 3 such raw pace now we were much less paceless so more workman like and a solid spine with Evans Fofana and prime Ndidi.

In general we did well to hold it up the upper echelons with the injury list and troubles we had but with a bit of luck from Liverpool falling off a cliff with VVD injury and Chelsea bieng poorly managed by Frank before Tuchel came in, we had another opening. Again we bottled it but it felt less of a bottle this time and winning the FA Cup was a great achievement to at least show something for the quality squad we had for 2/3 years.

Since then though its all gone downhill. Firstly losing Fofana to leg break forcing us to waste money on Vesty, stupid signing of Betrand which is Brendan at his useless best and poor other recruitment in Daka and Soumare reminded me of summer 2016 with Musa Silva and Slimani. This happens but with a club like us we CANT get any wrong, even more so because of the poor decision to gamble huge on Brendan before we had the CL money in our hands.

Maybe Top worked out it would be ok but couldnt foresee Covid coming which would be very unfortunate timing but nevertheless it was poor desperate decision to pump hard on Brendan when its clear as day from his time at Pool that hes no good at rebuilding a team just lives off other peoples work.

 

We are now in a huge mess because of it, I cannot see also how we dont go down in 23/24 if we someone survive this season. Youri and Madders are both gone, Vards and Evans will all be retired and so unlike in 17/18-18/19 when whilst we were rebuilding we had the spine of quality in Kasper Evans Vardy Mahrez to hold us midtable whilst we re built, this time the spine behind these guys above who will go/retire are bloody useless. So next season with Amartey and Thomas in our back 4 and Daka running about up top. we are nailed 20th.

Youri is the reason we are just about holding up this year. Him and Madders aside we are imo the worst squad in the league now and itll show next year.

Id say as we stand we are absolute bankers to get relegated next year if we somehow survive this year.

[deep blue]

 I don't agree that it's impossible to compete.  If you look at clubs like Brighton, Fulham, Brentford then you can see that it's still possible to do well in the Prem if your club operates with an effective model with regard to transfers, wages,  training/fitness, and a decent manager.  We've fallen behind in those aspects over the last 3 years.  On the other hand, huge wealth doesn't always guarantee success as we are seeing at the moment with Chelsea and Liverpool, and in each season over recent years usually a couple of the big 6 struggle.

 

But we urgently need to recapture the model that has previously served us well, and we need to give our promising youth players more of a chance to progress into first team contenders.  Replacing Rodgers ASAP is essential so that we have the opportunity to make this transition while we are still in the Prem.

[Heathrow fox]

15 hours ago, deanolegend1989 said:

This.

Spot on. It all started with this. I was on here a lot in 2020/2021 getting pelters for suggesting Brendan was overrated and he was living off the quality squad we had, now it has all shown up.

The reality is 2019 we had built a fantastic young squad that every manager wanted our job. Prime Ricardo and Chillwell at fullbacks, a midfield triangle of prime Wilf and a young Tillemans/madders who are only going to get better and a world class rampant Vards up front. 19/20 season we 100% should of got top 4, we were in fact the 3rd best team in the league that year and Chelsea being so weak with a transfer ban and a useless Man Utd team under Ole meant the door was open and we blew it.

We started like a house on fire but firstly, as you said above, giving Brendan that huge contract was mental. Not even hindsight either, I remember vividly at the time thinking 'Really? the job isnt even done yet..thats not like our owners to make silly decisions, I trust they know what there doing'. Vichai wouldnt of allowed that I dont think.

Big gamble which was stupid before we had achieved CL football. If he left for Arsenal who cares, the squad we had was the reason and at that time we'd of got another manager in of quality as we'd of been an attractive option at that point.

Absolutely no reason to get desperate with such an average manager just because we won 8 in a row and looked great because we had such a good squad.

 

This was definitely the start of what we are seeing now and it didnt help that almost straight away we hit a brick wall in form, Vards pulled up vs Liverpool on new years day and was never prime Vardy again, Ricardo broke his leg and then lock down stopped which I seem to remember helped Utd get injuries back from the break and didnt help us.

It also hurt King Power at the pocket due to lockdown which means a number of events and issues all came at the same time to put huge pressure now on achieving CL football for the money.

We blew it by a combination of injuries, poor management and bottle, so it felt like we missed our chance.

The summer of 20/21 though was the anomaly. Signing Castange and Fofana both great signings was great business and helped booster the squad for 20/21. We were not as fluent as 19/20 due to Chillwell leaving, Ricardo broken leg and Vards past his raw peak - all 3 such raw pace now we were much less paceless so more workman like and a solid spine with Evans Fofana and prime Ndidi.

In general we did well to hold it up the upper echelons with the injury list and troubles we had but with a bit of luck from Liverpool falling off a cliff with VVD injury and Chelsea bieng poorly managed by Frank before Tuchel came in, we had another opening. Again we bottled it but it felt less of a bottle this time and winning the FA Cup was a great achievement to at least show something for the quality squad we had for 2/3 years.

Since then though its all gone downhill. Firstly losing Fofana to leg break forcing us to waste money on Vesty, stupid signing of Betrand which is Brendan at his useless best and poor other recruitment in Daka and Soumare reminded me of summer 2016 with Musa Silva and Slimani. This happens but with a club like us we CANT get any wrong, even more so because of the poor decision to gamble huge on Brendan before we had the CL money in our hands.

Maybe Top worked out it would be ok but couldnt foresee Covid coming which would be very unfortunate timing but nevertheless it was poor desperate decision to pump hard on Brendan when its clear as day from his time at Pool that hes no good at rebuilding a team just lives off other peoples work.

 

We are now in a huge mess because of it, I cannot see also how we dont go down in 23/24 if we someone survive this season. Youri and Madders are both gone, Vards and Evans will all be retired and so unlike in 17/18-18/19 when whilst we were rebuilding we had the spine of quality in Kasper Evans Vardy Mahrez to hold us midtable whilst we re built, this time the spine behind these guys above who will go/retire are bloody useless. So next season with Amartey and Thomas in our back 4 and Daka running about up top. we are nailed 20th.

Youri is the reason we are just about holding up this year. Him and Madders aside we are imo the worst squad in the league now and itll show next year.

Id say as we stand we are absolute bankers to get relegated next year if we somehow survive this year.

That’s a pretty good summary imo.I honestly thought the pre Christmas 2019 squad was going to have a big say in the shake up.Maybe even finishing 2nd.

Amazed the weakness of the spine doesn’t get mentioned more.Glaringly obvious it’s a huge problem.
 

[Sampson]

I still think people massively overrate what qualifying for the CL would’ve brought in.

 

We would’ve gone in as 4th seeds and overwhelmingly likely crashed out in the groups,

 

it’s not like 2017 when we were seeded 1st and essentially drew a Europa League group which was just about the kindest draw we could’ve possibly got.

 

Going out in the group stages of the CL isn’t really a much bigger financial windfall than getting to the latter stages of the Europa, plenty of obscure, non-descript clubs make it to the CL group stages and aren’t power clubs.
 

And heck, we made the QFs in 2017 and it hardly made us a rich club either. The Maguire sale probably added more to our budget.

 

I very much doubt it really have covered our problems. I think the losses from covid to KP are many many times greater and having way way more of an effect than missing out on the CL has. Feel like we’d be in a very similar situation if we’d qualified for the CL both times.

[Tommy Fresh]

18 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I still think people massively overrate what qualifying for the CL would’ve brought in.

 

We would’ve gone in as 4th seeds and overwhelmingly likely crashed out in the groups,

 

it’s not like 2017 when we were seeded 1st and essentially drew a Europa League group which was just about the kindest draw we could’ve possibly got.

 

Going out in the group stages of the CL isn’t really a much bigger financial windfall than getting to the latter stages of the Europa, plenty of obscure, non-descript clubs make it to the CL group stages and aren’t power clubs.
 

And heck, we made the QFs in 2017 and it hardly made us a rich club either. The Maguire sale probably added more to our budget.

 

I very much doubt it really have covered our problems. I think the losses from covid to KP are many many times greater and having way way more of an effect than missing out on the CL has. Feel like we’d be in a very similar situation if we’d qualified for the CL both times.

You'll find the obscure clubs you mention probably are powerhouses in their respective countries through qualifiying for the group stages. We would have also brought in and attracted better players, which in theory may have helped us maintain that level of success and performance over a longer period. The theory that we'd be no worse off financially as we'd go out in the group stages of the Champions League anyway only works if we didn't fail miserably in both Europa campaigns.

Edited 13 January 2023 by Tommy Fresh

[StriderHiryu]

Whilst there have been obvious bad decisions around the club, it's also got to be noted that all clubs have periods of rise and fall. Arsenal struggled for a while, but are now closer to where they used to be. The mighty Man United have had years without a serious title challenge. Chelsea despite all their riches are an absolute embarrassment. 

 

It is nigh on impossible to have a club that can consistently improve and get better year upon year. Even Man City this season despite signing a generational talent are playing worse. We love sports because they are unpredictable. 

 

It doesn't mean we should be happy with the current situation, but compared to many clubs we've been spoilt over the last decade. 

[Sampson]

11 minutes ago, Tommy Fresh said:

You'll find the obscure clubs you mention probably are powerhouses in their respective countries through qualifiying for the group stages. We would have also brought in and attracted better players, which in theory may have helped us maintain that level of success and performance over a longer period. The theory that we'd be no worse off financially as we'd go out in the group stages of the Champions League anyway only works if we didn't fail miserably in both Europa campaigns.

But they aren’t countries who can afford hundreds of millions more in wages than if they qualified for the Europa League

 

Our “pull” was barely better once we won the league. Sure maybe players might favour us over say Everton, but it’s not like we’d suddenly be signing players in the same market Spurs or Arsenal were in. Even when Arsenal hadn’t qualified for the CL they were still signing players we never could realistically get.
 

That’s the reality of it. People keep saying we’d have a greater pull on players but what is that next level? We were already snapping up players from Newcastle at the time. Players like Ødegaard were probably the next level and a couple of CL group stages wouldn’t have brought that type of player in.