The Run In...

[Les-TA-Jon]

3 hours ago, J. James said:

So Jon, the question has been asked "Is there any evidence that reverse fixtures correlate with first results"?
And as you are obviously a statistics master, possibly even a genius AND it was you who gave me (and possibly others) encouragement, l think it is clearly a job for you.
There is l think no need to analyse any more than say 25 - 30 seasons of data to arrive at a definitive answer to the question which shouldn't take long, well not that long.
Ideally it would be easily understandable Jon and it goes without saying - remain encouraging.

Thanks in advance.

 

I'm not sure how I'd even begin to analyse that haha! 

 

I think it's ultimately a very blunt measurement and not particularly useful. It's simply reflective of the respective forms of both teams at the time that the previously played - which has little bearing on their respective forms by the time they play again months later. 

[Conscript Fox]

30 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I think the general idea is that we'll either stay up on merit (by getting the 2-4 wins we need) or stay up by default by two of Leeds, Forest and Everton being terrible

I get it 

Tallest dwarf in the orphanage time basically. 

[Dan]

5 hours ago, Beachyboy said:

That game in Feb 22 was frustrating, I thought we looked OK, more of a threat from attacking positions than them but two shots from outside the box beat us, just glad it's at home like you say the 0-4 freak game aside, I think we tend to get more results at home against them.

That game was the exception to the rule where we looked the better side for large parts and ended up losing it.

 

This is a fixture that doesn't tend to reward a good performance. Maybe we need Rodgers back for a game.

[Beachyboy]

3 hours ago, melvinmmelvin said:

If, and only if, your wins are correct (I think they're optimistic as a whole), then I think the other three results will be better.

 

You have no draws (to coin a phrase)...

 

So you think both Leeds and Everton will pick up 11 points?

[st albans fox]

34 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I'm not sure how I'd even begin to analyse that haha! 

 

I think it's ultimately a very blunt measurement and not particularly useful. It's simply reflective of the respective forms of both teams at the time that the previously played - which has little bearing on their respective forms by the time they play again months later. 

The answer is therefore - ‘not really’ 

 

in our situation it’s possibly of value to try and give the boys some confidence that in a desperate season they’ve actually beaten these sides already 

 

I would say that there may be value in looking at sides that finished in positions 16-20 over the past ten campaigns (not pandemic seasons) and check if the teams that clearly have a poor season have a disproportionate amount of doubles in those seasons.  You’d probably not expect any sides that are relegated to achieve a double (unless there is a team that has a derby type season where they pretty much lose to everyone ) 

[StanSP]

Did the predictor thing.

 

Had us winning against Wolves, Leeds & Everton, lose against Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. BUT, we're safe before the West Ham game based on the other results:

 

 

Southampton relegated after GW36 (based on GD, officially after GW37)

Man City winning the title at home to Chelsea.

 

3-way fight between Everton, Leeds & Forest to survive...

 

Then final day pans out with Everton winning, but it not being enough as Leeds also win, so they go down with Forest. Oh, for shame!

 

The only sad thing is Newcastle end up with CL football...

[The Year Of The Fox]

I never get those predictor things. 
 

You’re never right, and if you are you should be putting bets on them

[Ric Flair]

If you ever want to visit the gates of hell to see what it looks like, it's us getting relegated, Forest staying up and Cov winning the play-offs.

 

 

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

I never get those predictor things. 
 

You’re never right, and if you are you should be putting bets on them

It can just be a prediction. No one is obligated to be 100% right in them all the time

 

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

I never get those predictor things. 
 

You’re never right, and if you are you should be putting bets on them

I did this in 14/15 after we started to win and had us staying up.  But if I did it now I wouldn’t have a clue how we’re likely to get on in the next four games ! 

[The_77]

43 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

If you ever want to visit the gates of hell to see what it looks like, it's us getting relegated, Forest staying up and Cov winning the play-offs.

 

 

 

[weller54]

2 hours ago, StanSP said:

Did the predictor thing.

 

Had us winning against Wolves, Leeds & Everton, lose against Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. BUT, we're safe before the West Ham game based on the other results:

 

 

Southampton relegated after GW36 (based on GD, officially after GW37)

Man City winning the title at home to Chelsea.

 

3-way fight between Everton, Leeds & Forest to survive...

 

Then final day pans out with Everton winning, but it not being enough as Leeds also win, so they go down with Forest. Oh, for shame!

 

The only sad thing is Newcastle end up with CL football...

Thanks Mystic Smeg.

[Leeds Fox]

36 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I did this in 14/15 after we started to win and had us staying up.  But if I did it now I wouldn’t have a clue how we’re likely to get on in the next four games ! 

I think we’re far too much of an unknown for me to even bother. We could lose every game as easily as we could have a storming run to survival. 
 

Going on form, we’re down and out, but who knows with the new management. 

[melvinmmelvin]

15 hours ago, Beachyboy said:

So you think both Leeds and Everton will pick up 11 points?

I didn't say that. I hope not, but I've no idea. I could list my own predictions (but don't wish to tempt fate) and get most of then wrong.

 

LCFC can score goals; and recent history proves that if we can start to win games, we can put a string of wins together.

 

I'd love to go into the final fixture, already safe. But as the bloke used to say, it's a funny old game...

[SuperMike]

1 hour ago, melvinmmelvin said:

 

 

LCFC can score goals; and recent history proves that if we can start to win games, we can put a string of wins together.

 

NO! Recent history shows  that we LOSE games. And lose. And lose. And lose. And lose.......

[scinnell]

I want us to win a game first before I make predictions

[Chelmofox]

Just now, scinnell said:

I want us to win a game first before I make predictions

Do you predict that will be on Saturday?

[FoxFossil]

21 hours ago, MattFox said:

The Feb 22 game was made worse by the weather that day

 

 

Yes Brendan, the weather, ofcourse.

[Strokes]

15 hours ago, StanSP said:

It can just be a prediction. No one is obligated to be 100% right in them all the time

 

Don’t say that now, I’ve just put my life savings on your predictions.

[OriginalRobboFOX]

16 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

If you ever want to visit the gates of hell to see what it looks like, it's us getting relegated, Forest staying up and Cov winning the play-offs.

 

 

Why did you say it out loud 😫😫

[smudgerfox]

19 hours ago, StanSP said:

Did the predictor thing.

 

Had us winning against Wolves, Leeds & Everton, lose against Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. BUT, we're safe before the West Ham game based on the other results:

 

 

Southampton relegated after GW36 (based on GD, officially after GW37)

Man City winning the title at home to Chelsea.

 

3-way fight between Everton, Leeds & Forest to survive...

 

Then final day pans out with Everton winning, but it not being enough as Leeds also win, so they go down with Forest. Oh, for shame!

 

The only sad thing is Newcastle end up with CL football...

Fatuous really. First of all there’s literally no game we can be relied upon to win..we’ve been “doubled” by Southampton ffs. 
 

All these remaining games will be played under  the severest pressure and will have their own internal dynamics. Imagine going 1-0 down early on Saturday - pushing for an  equaliser and going 2-0 down. Or an injury to Maddison, or a sending off. 
 

These high wire games  will increasingly be influenced by events at significant games being played elsewhere simultaneously - rivals taking a surprise lead at a game everyone expected them to lose will ratchet the need for us to win. 
 

Timing of matches could also be important - our preponderance of Monday fixtures is likely to involve more pressure. We’ll likely be needing to win to get ourselves out of the bottom 3 for a number of weeks. 

I am heartened by the cheery pragmatism of SST but this is going to be very very difficult..

 

 

 

[StanSP]

3 minutes ago, smudgerfox said:

Fatuous really. First of all there’s literally no game we can be relied upon to win..we’ve been “doubled” by Southampton ffs. 
 

All these remaining games will be played under  the severest pressure and will have their own internal dynamics. Imagine going 1-0 down early on Saturday - pushing for an  equaliser and going 2-0 down. Or an injury to Maddison, or a sending off. 
 

These high wire games  will increasingly be influenced by events at significant games being played elsewhere simultaneously - rivals taking a surprise lead at a game everyone expected them to lose will ratchet the need for us to win. 
 

Timing of matches could also be important - our preponderance of Monday fixtures is likely to involve more pressure. We’ll likely be needing to win to get ourselves out of the bottom 3 for a number of weeks. 

I am heartened by the cheery pragmatism of SST but this is going to be very very difficult..

 

 

 

Thanks.

I had no idea about all of that. I just punched random numbers into it and it came out with the above.

[demon_dog]

You'll know when we're doomed. The stadium announcer will start giving us Championship final scores!

[scinnell]

7 hours ago, Chelmofox said:

Do you predict that will be on Saturday?

I am not too sure. I feel more optimistic, but I am trying to stay grounded as this season has been a huge disappointment. It's the hope that kills you 

[justfoxes]

23 hours ago, StanSP said:

Did the predictor thing.

 

Had us winning against Wolves, Leeds & Everton, lose against Fulham, Liverpool & Newcastle. BUT, we're safe before the West Ham game based on the other results:

 

 

Southampton relegated after GW36 (based on GD, officially after GW37)

Man City winning the title at home to Chelsea.

 

3-way fight between Everton, Leeds & Forest to survive...

 

Then final day pans out with Everton winning, but it not being enough as Leeds also win, so they go down with Forest. Oh, for shame!

 

The only sad thing is Newcastle end up with CL football...

I’m just praying you're right Stan I’ve got us down for a draw at Fulham without Mitrovich a draw also at Newcastle who seem to be dropping form and Liverpool loss as they seemed to have picked things up a bit but the other 4 I agree, so let’s hope Deano can get the lads playing to our best like the last time we played Wolves Villa & spuds.

I'm sure Deano Shakey & JT will pull us together now he’s had longer time with us and get us firing on all cylinders to safety 🙏🙏