2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[The Doctor]

, jesus, you can stop with the emotive hyperbole now you know, the election's over!

And with it the problems have begun - the tories are promising more welfare cuts; simple problem is that there's not enough jobs to go around, people who want to work won't necessarily get to, and the cuts will also leave disabled people with more problems given they'll be forced to work, even more so with no sign of increased support for carers.

[Bilo]

I can count on one hand the number of good teachers i had at secondary school. Plenty go into it because of the holidays, even friends of mine who are teachers have admitted this.

They're a bit daft then because getting a holiday as a teacher is hideously expensive.

[Stevosevic]

They're a bit daft then because getting a holiday as a teacher is hideously expensive.

 

You get 14 weeks though compared to 5-6 in most jobs. You don't have to go away to have a break.

[Alf Bentley]

Can't claim that I anticipated that election outcome, but I did have a horrible, queasy feeling beforehand that it could be 1992 revisited. Partly, because the campaign reminded me of 1992 - lots of negative campaigning, little clarity about policy. Partly, also, because of the reports that a high proportion of voters were still undecided at the last moment.

 

It's always likely that late deciders will vote disproportionately for the status quo or perceived "safe option". I suspect that's partly what explains the disparity with the pre-election polls.

 

Labour and other losing parties would do well to conduct some in-depth research into the reasons for the late swing. As well as late deciders, my guess is that part of the reason for Labour's defeat was its failure over 4 years to properly challenge the argument that the deficit was caused by profligate Labour spending, proving that it could not be trusted with the economy. They occasionally challenged this during the campaign, but it's useless challenging something for 4 weeks after spending 4 years allowing it to become an accepted "fact".

 

Labour/Miliband's campaign was better than I expected. However, it was conducted almost in a vacuum. The first part of that is Labour's own fault. Over 4 years, they'd failed to project a vision as to what the party was all about, just coming up with the odd clever ruse in isolation. The second part may be extreme cunning by the Tories / Lynton Crosby. Crosby's tactic of banging on about a profligate Labour-SNP coalition ruining our finances seemed clumsy and brutal, but I suspect that it worked well at convincing some voters to switch to the Tories, particularly when Labour's economic credentials were suspect (wrongly, in my view, but that's another argument). All parties seemed to report that this tactic had a lot of traction on the doorstep.

 

I hope that Nicola Sturgeon is happy with the outcome, as she played a massive part in it, too, constantly asking Miliband to form an alliance. I suspect that she may well be very happy with it. It could suit the destructive ends of the SNP - help the Tories into power, further fan hostility against the "horrible Tory-voting English", call another independence referendum and Bob's your uncle! Whether Cameron will allow this to happen is another issue. As a man who often puts party above country, he may well do - so it could be a winner for him and Nicola alike. Sturgeon is fvcked if the Tories decide to resist, though....how could they force a majority government to act when it has almost no MPs to lose in Scotland?

 

I'm trying to console myself with the thought that if 2015 = 1992 revisited, then 2020 (or earlier) could be 1997 revisited.

 

It's certainly not going to be easy for Cameron with a tiny majority and the Lib Dems blown off the face of the planet. Not many potential allies if the majority dwindles or malcontents start voting against the whip, as they did with Major.

 

Someone wrote that Cameron was brilliant at tactics but rubbish at strategy, and that might be true:

- Fanning fear about the Scots may have worked as an election tactic, but he'll now have to deal with the consequences - a potential constitutional crisis & break-up of the UK

- Committing to a 2017 EU referendum may have seemed a clever tactic to kick a difficult issue into the long grass....but now he'll have to offer a referendum, possibly having earned few concessions from allies & risking Tory civil war

- Having argued that the economy is in great shape thanks to Tory policies, they'll now have to deal with falling growth rates, low productivity, an unbalanced economy etc. - and they won't still be able to blame Brown in 2020

 

I said before that this election could be a poisoned chalice for the winner and stand by that. Still massively disappointed, of course, and who knows, events, policy or luck might mean that everything comes up roses by 2020 and the Tories might be in power for another generation....wouldn't bank on it, though.

[Lord Nibblington]

Maybe the tories will indulge their socialist streak some more and adjust teacher's wages so they're more in line with the rest of the world?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/youngest-and-the-best-paid-report-shows-teachers-in-uk-earn-one-of-the-highest-salaries-8673616.html

We can hope.

 

Presume http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10141810/Teachers-in-England-paid-higher-salaries-than-those-in-most-other-countries.html is referring to the same OECD report. Though the telegraph specifically mention that it is primary teachers that earn more. Both also mention that whilst the salaries start off above average, they fall behind after 10 years in the profession.

 

So I would assume you'd be in favour of them going down when they first start teaching to be more in line, whilst going up after they've been a teacher for long to make it more in line with the rest of the world, then?

[The Doctor]

edit: nvm.

[Strokes]

Can't claim that I anticipated that election outcome, but I did have a horrible, queasy feeling beforehand that it could be 1992 revisited. Partly, because the campaign reminded me of 1992 - lots of negative campaigning, little clarity about policy. Partly, also, because of the reports that a high proportion of voters were still undecided at the last moment.

 

It's always likely that late deciders will vote disproportionately for the status quo or perceived "safe option". I suspect that's partly what explains the disparity with the pre-election polls.

 

Labour and other losing parties would do well to conduct some in-depth research into the reasons for the late swing. As well as late deciders, my guess is that part of the reason for Labour's defeat was its failure over 4 years to properly challenge the argument that the deficit was caused by profligate Labour spending, proving that it could not be trusted with the economy. They occasionally challenged this during the campaign, but it's useless challenging something for 4 weeks after spending 4 years allowing it to become an accepted "fact".

 

Labour/Miliband's campaign was better than I expected. However, it was conducted almost in a vacuum. The first part of that is Labour's own fault. Over 4 years, they'd failed to project a vision as to what the party was all about, just coming up with the odd clever ruse in isolation. The second part may be extreme cunning by the Tories / Lynton Crosby. Crosby's tactic of banging on about a profligate Labour-SNP coalition ruining our finances seemed clumsy and brutal, but I suspect that it worked well at convincing some voters to switch to the Tories, particularly when Labour's economic credentials were suspect (wrongly, in my view, but that's another argument). All parties seemed to report that this tactic had a lot of traction on the doorstep.

 

I hope that Nicola Sturgeon is happy with the outcome, as she played a massive part in it, too, constantly asking Miliband to form an alliance. I suspect that she may well be very happy with it. It could suit the destructive ends of the SNP - help the Tories into power, further fan hostility against the "horrible Tory-voting English", call another independence referendum and Bob's your uncle! Whether Cameron will allow this to happen is another issue. As a man who often puts party above country, he may well do - so it could be a winner for him and Nicola alike. Sturgeon is fvcked if the Tories decide to resist, though....how could they force a majority government to act when it has almost no MPs to lose in Scotland?

 

I'm trying to console myself with the thought that if 2015 = 1992 revisited, then 2020 (or earlier) could be 1997 revisited.

 

It's certainly not going to be easy for Cameron with a tiny majority and the Lib Dems blown off the face of the planet. Not many potential allies if the majority dwindles or malcontents start voting against the whip, as they did with Major.

 

Someone wrote that Cameron was brilliant at tactics but rubbish at strategy, and that might be true:

- Fanning fear about the Scots may have worked as an election tactic, but he'll now have to deal with the consequences - a potential constitutional crisis & break-up of the UK

- Committing to a 2017 EU referendum may have seemed a clever tactic to kick a difficult issue into the long grass....but now he'll have to offer a referendum, possibly having earned few concessions from allies & risking Tory civil war

- Having argued that the economy is in great shape thanks to Tory policies, they'll now have to deal with falling growth rates, low productivity, an unbalanced economy etc. - and they won't still be able to blame Brown in 2020

 

I said before that this election could be a poisoned chalice for the winner and stand by that. Still massively disappointed, of course, and who knows, events, policy or luck might mean that everything comes up roses by 2020 and the Tories might be in power for another generation....wouldn't bank on it, though.

Has anyone ever thought people might tell fibs when being polled? I like being a mischievous scamp and would be inclined to tell porkies.

[Merging Cultures]

What about the men he has had interactions with

That was just you and you promised you'd never mention it.

No I feel dirty and shamed.

[Dr The Singh]

That was just you and you promised you'd never mention it.

No I feel dirty and shamed.

Don't feel dirty, your bum was magnificent and hairy, I only wish we did it more often

[MooseBreath]

And with it the problems have begun - the tories are promising more welfare cuts; simple problem is that there's not enough jobs to go around, people who want to work won't necessarily get to, and the cuts will also leave disabled people with more problems given they'll be forced to work, even more so with no sign of increased support for carers.

That very simplistic first problem is barely even true. The latest ONS figures show that the claimant count is 772k while vacancies are at 743k.

On the 2nd point, probably quite offensive towards disabled people. I don't know a huge number of disabled people, but feel comfortable saying that I doubt they're happy for their disability to prevent them from getting on in life, and that they want to work, and will be only too happy to see more jobs becoming available.

[MiniFox]

That very simplistic first problem is barely even true. The latest ONS figures show that the claimant count is 772k while vacancies are at 743k.

On the 2nd point, probably quite offensive towards disabled people. I don't know a huge number of disabled people, but feel comfortable saying that I doubt they're happy for their disability to prevent them from getting on in life, and that they want to work, and will be only too happy to see more jobs becoming available.

It's not necessarily about wanting to work it's about them not being able too.

[ADK]

Has anyone ever thought people might tell fibs when being polled? I like being a mischievous scamp and would be inclined to tell porkies.

 

It would average out. I think Alf is 100% spot on. This is the result I was expecting before Miliband's surprise surge in popularity to be honest.

[Strokes]

Does anyone else think it was the longstop's blog that turned this election into a Tory majority?

[MooseBreath]

It's not necessarily about wanting to work it's about them not being able too.

According to a Papworth Trust study the main barrier to work for people with disabilities is lack of job opportunities. A strong economy will help with that.

Remember that disability formally includes people with conditions like diabetes. There are 11 million disabled people in the UK.

I'm all for people who genuinely can't work receiving as much welfare as they need to live a comfortable life.

I'm not so keen on helping people who are perfectly capable of work but just find the whole idea of getting up every morning causes them a bit more stress than they can be bothered with.

Studies have shown that we spend more on social protection than any other country in the world. There is no justification for that.

[MiniFox]

According to a Papworth Trust study the main barrier to work for people with disabilities is lack of job opportunities. A strong economy will help with that.

Remember that disability formally includes people with conditions like diabetes. There are 11 million disabled people in the UK.

I'm all for people who genuinely can't work receiving as much welfare as they need to live a comfortable life.

I'm not so keen on helping people who are perfectly capable of work but just find the whole idea of getting up every morning causes them a bit more stress than they can be bothered with.

Studies have shown that we spend more on social protection than any other country in the world. There is no justification for that.

But it's just worth recognising that of that 11 million, I couldn't tell you how many, but I'm sure there will be a fair few who cannot work.

 

As a whole, if disabled people can work, they probably will, like you said they don't want to be limited.

 

Sometimes I think people somehow imagine a world where there will be virtually no one on welfare, but there will always be some people, rightly or wrongly, who claim.

[Webbo]

Does anyone else think it was the longstop's blog that turned this election into a Tory majority?

[Bilo]

Does anyone else think it was the longstop's blog that turned this election into a Tory majority?

The sad thing is that he'll be sat in his bedsit thinking exactly that, without a hint of irony.

[Rincewind]

I have found the poem this post reminds me of It is a long one so I will only post the link.Copy and paste if  you wish; It is very powerful and thought provoking.

I thought  it was set in London but it wsas Manchester in early 1800's. After the event  it had a great impact on how  the lower classes were treated.  I hope we are not reversing it.

 

Had a good night I am shattered so no time to catch up on posts I am hoping there won't be many additions.

 

^{The Masque of Anarchy by Percey Shelley}

[The Blur]

It's not necessarily about wanting to work it's about them not being able too.

 

 

According to a Papworth Trust study the main barrier to work for people with disabilities is lack of job opportunities. A strong economy will help with that.

Remember that disability formally includes people with conditions like diabetes. There are 11 million disabled people in the UK.

I'm all for people who genuinely can't work receiving as much welfare as they need to live a comfortable life.

I'm not so keen on helping people who are perfectly capable of work but just find the whole idea of getting up every morning causes them a bit more stress than they can be bothered with.

Studies have shown that we spend more on social protection than any other country in the world. There is no justification for that.

 

 

Not if Tories continue to limit opportunities for disabled people in workplace. Their recent attempt to place a cap on Access to Work scheme hardly helped even though it has been discovered that for every pound they invest in the scheme, they will earn £1.48 back.  I have known some disabled people who are forced to quit their careers because they are denied support in their workplace.  The support for their needs at home is also shrinking due to new Care Act where disabled people need to meet at least 'some' of eligibility criteria in order to be eligible for support even if they only have one urgent need (mobility or incontinent issues or whatever) that they desperately need support with. 

 

In the short, Tories are creating unconductive home environment for disabled people to live in at home which then limit their job aspirations/productivity at work as if being restricted in their workplace due to Access to Work cap proposals is not bad enough! 

[katieakita]

I've always said teachers should get paid more. Or more accurately, the teaching profession should pay more to attract better teachers.

Most of my pre-higher education schooling was absolutely dross and I'll never forget that. Some of the teachers didn't deserve any pay at all never mind one of the best teaching salaries in the world.

 

Of course your pre- higher education was dross by then clearly you would have known everything anyway so you had no need for teaching, or maybe the teachers just realised you were a bit of a ####.

[Guest]

Does anyone else think it was the longstop's blog that turned this election into a Tory majority?

 

 He should put that on his achievement list.

[Guest]

Of course your pre- higher education was dross by then clearly you would have known everything anyway so you had no need for teaching, or maybe the teachers just realised you were a bit of a ####.

 

[Bilo]

 He should put that on his achievement list.

 

Almost certainly the only thing shorter than his list of sexual conquests.

[BlueSi13]

Seriously, what planet are the SNP on?  Talking about how they are going to this and going to do that in Westminster....has nobody driven all the way up north to remind Nicola Sturgeon that, apart from being a bitter and divisive nuisance in the Commons, they will have absolutely no say in the future direction of this country?  They are a regional power, nothing more....thank ****.

[lgfualol]

Not sure if this is the right thread. But lots of protests happening around downing street today, riot police in full force. I've not heard it being reported anywhere which is a bit worrying. 

 

The protesters damaged a war monument to Women though. I don't know why they have to trash things. 

 

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