Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Milo]

59 minutes ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Brexit, potentially, could be possibly the worst political decision since Tony Blair was chosen as Prime Minister.

Feels embarrassing at the moment in front of other countries.

Tony Blair was an absolute breath of fresh air when he was elected.

 

He was a whirlwind of energy, connection and a catalyst for a whole range of much needed social reforms.

 

 

 

Went a bit mad in the end, mind 

[Guest MattP]

Matthew Hancock moved to health secretary, thought that could have been the job for a proper reformer like Gove.

[Milo]

1 hour ago, Nickfosse said:

I wonder at what point even the most staunch Brexiteer is prepared to admit that this is just one almighty mess. 

How else would you rather have it?

 

The Remainers are being teased that maybe, just maybe Brexit won't happen...

 

 

 

...But deep down, they kind of know it will.

 

 

It's all a bit rock and roll and quite entertaining, tbh

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Milo said:

Tony Blair was an absolute breath of fresh air when he was elected.

 

He was a whirlwind of energy, connection and a catalyst for a whole range of much needed social reforms.

 

Went a bit mad in the end, mind 

He was, the country felt good about it - I would certainly have voted Labour in 97' had I been old enough at the time.

 

He did get the big decisions wrong though, we all know about Iraq and it was only Brown who stopped him from joining the Euro.

 

Immigration levels aside he did a pretty good job on social mobility.

[Sharpe's Fox]

every time there is a chance to make succinct arguments against leaving the alt-remainers are going to go on about buses and bananas and the like. It’s very reassuring. Shows that they still don’t know how to win the argument against the basic principle that an MPs powers are given back to the electorate undiminished when their term ends.

[Tielemans63]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Matthew Hancock moved to health secretary, thought that could have been the job for a proper reformer like Gove.

Doesn't make him a good one though. Made huge education reforms but to nigh-on disastrous effect.

 

I'm not anti-Tory btw but I'm definitely anti-Gove. The man's a ****. 

[Nickfosse]

5 minutes ago, Milo said:

How else would you rather have it?

 

The Remainers are being teased that maybe, just maybe Brexit won't happen...

 

 

 

...But deep down, they kind of know it will.

 

 

It's all a bit rock and roll and quite entertaining, tbh

I think Brexit will happen. Though I didn’t vote for it, I was genuinely hoping for a deal that would enable us to thrive economically. I’m worried that in the light of the carnage that has ensued, we’re going to end up with a shocking deal. 

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, Paddy. said:

Doesn't make him a good one though. Made huge education reforms but to nigh-on disastrous effect.

 

I'm not anti-Tory btw but I'm definitely anti-Gove. The man's a ****. 

Those reforms don't look bad in hindsight though, more students learning foreign languages, the grading change seems a relative success. His work on the enviroment has been quite positive as well.

 

Whether you like him or not at least reformers have conviction and try to change things for the better.

 

Full disclosure I've met him and like the guy, which could probably cloud my judgement. 

Edited 9 July 2018 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

The four great offices of state and now ran by four remain politicians. 

 

I'd imagine there are some very impatient backbenchers at the minute.

 

Thank God we can get back to the football for the next couple of days.

[Alf Bentley]

46 minutes ago, Milo said:

Tony Blair was an absolute breath of fresh air when he was elected.

 

He was a whirlwind of energy, connection and a catalyst for a whole range of much needed social reforms.

 

 

 

Went a bit mad in the end, mind 

 

Ignoring the politics and just looking at long-serving PMs, by the time a PM hits a third term they do seem to go a bit bonkers, lost in their egos and disconnected from the public (Blair, Thatcher).

 

Maybe we should have a 2-term limit on PMs, like the Yanks have for Presidents?

[lifted*fox]

41 minutes ago, MattP said:

Full disclosure I've met him and like the guy, which could probably cloud my judgement. 

 

 

name dropping Michael Gove, you rock star. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Jeremy Hunt the new foreign secretary. 

but the NHS is his calling that he can't bear to leave.....the C***

[Voll Blau]

14 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Ignoring the politics and just looking at long-serving PMs, by the time a PM hits a third term they do seem to go a bit bonkers, lost in their egos and disconnected from the public (Blair, Thatcher).

 

Maybe we should have a 2-term limit on PMs, like the Yanks have for Presidents?

That would certainly do the world of good for fixed-term Parliaments. They've really gone well so far. 

 

[Foxxed]

We're going to get Arran Banks and his pet Farage providing a "solution" soon, aren't we. The usual weak men will desparately clamour for a strong man. You know, to do strong things. Bang a few doors. Slap through a few ill thought-out laws. Point at an enemy, growl and encourage others to do the same. Say the things people want to hear. Farage probably needs to pop over to Russia for a pep talk first though.

 

Come on the Tories, you're suppose to be strong and stable. Pull a normal out of your ranks. Someone who's not an ideological exteremist.

Edited 9 July 2018 by Foxxed

[Tielemans63]

14 hours ago, MattP said:

Those reforms don't look bad in hindsight though, more students learning foreign languages, the grading change seems a relative success. His work on the enviroment has been quite positive as well.

 

Whether you like him or not at least reformers have conviction and try to change things for the better.

 

Full disclosure I've met him and like the guy, which could probably cloud my judgement. 

 

I always find your posts well-informed and interesting Matt, even when I don't necessarily agree but seriously you need to read up on your boy Gove. The man has been an absolute disaster for education. I'd be here all week if I listed the damage his reforms have caused. 

 

If I was to try and strike a balance I'd say that he was right when he said some qualifications were too easy and was right to say that some courses were a waste of time. The theory of academisation made logical sense too if the government no longer fancied footing the bill for out kid's education (he just forgot to think through the long term issues of accountability and sustainability).

 

However, that's where is stops. The man didn't listen. He wouldn't listen. He just bulldozed the whole ****ing thing. He was driven by ego not by any sense of common good. He wanted to make a name for himself and present himself as a politician with balls. He certainly did that but at what price? Not the actions of an honourable and decent man. Those are the actions of an opportunist.

 

I'm a teacher so obviously I'm massively bias but I genuinely can't think of a good thing that came from those reforms other than maybe the brightest 1% might get the recognition that they might not have before (harder to get a 9 then an A*) but here are a few less than positive consequences of Gove's reforms:

 

Fewer NQTs then ever before entering the profession

 

Record numbers of teachers leaving the profession 

 

Record levels of unqualified teachers in our classrooms (particularly in difficult schools)

 

£733m a year being spent on cover / supply (non-specialists) to plug the gap (badly).

 

Massive majority of academies managing a deficit - who suffers most? The students. Why? Because school funding has been frozen since 2010.

 

Plummeting numbers of specialist staff e.g. LSAs, HLTAs which results in increasingly limited provision for the most vulnerable kids (which has obvious knock on effects). Kids with SEN are criminally under-catered for in many schools.

 

Far fewer vocational pathways for less-academic students. Many of the new vocational pathways are an absolute joke too, pretty much slave labour punctuated by a day at college here and there.

 

Record numbers of complaints (by staff, students and parents) about poorly written exams following the introduction of equally poorly constructed new specifications (many are being rewritten already). Why? Because Gove didn't give enough time, resources or attention to ensuring this was done effectively.

 

Massive increase in mental health problems among secondary pupils because they can't cope with the frankly inaccessible reformed GCSEs and A-Levels.

 

I'll leave it there. Despite my rantings I don't want to make this an education thing. I just cannot accept that Gove is in any way a great reformer when he has caused so much damage....and we've only seen the tip of the iceberg. Anyone who thinks Gove did a good job as Education Sec should spend a week in one of our academies and experience what our kids experience. 

 

I'm confident that in a decade's time we'll be talking about one of the most disastrous appointments of all time. As I say, I'm not anti-Tory but I ****ing hate that ****.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 10 July 2018 by Paddy.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Paddy. said:

I always find your posts well-informed and interesting Matt, even when I don't necessarily agree but seriously you need to read up on your boy Gove. The man has been an absolute disaster for Education. I'd be here all week if I listed the damage his reforms have caused. 

 

If I was to try and strike a balance I'd say that he was right when he said some qualifications were too easy and was right to say that some courses were a waste of time. The theory of academisation made logical sense too if the government no longer fancied footing the bill for out kid's education (he just forgot to think through the long term issues of accountability and sustainability).

 

However, that's where is stops. The man didn't listen. He wouldn't listen. He just bulldozed the whole ****ing thing. He was driven by ego not by any sense of common good. He wanted to make a name for himself and present himself as a politician with balls. He certainly did that but at what price? Not the actions of an honourable and decent man. Those are the actions of an opportunist.

 

I'm a teacher so obviously I'm massively bias but I genuinely can't think of a good thing that came from those reforms other than maybe the brightest 1% might get the recognition that they might not have before (harder to get a 9 then an A*) but here are a few less than positive consequences of Gove's reforms:

 

Fewer NQTs then ever before entering the profession

 

Record numbers of teachers leaving the profession 

 

Record levels of unqualified teachers in our classrooms (particularly in difficult schools)

 

£733m a year being spent on cover / supply (non-specialists) to plug the gap (badly).

 

Massive majority of academies managing a deficit - who suffers most? The students. Why? Because school funding has been frozen since 2010.

 

Far fewer vocational pathways for less-academic students. Many of the new vocational pathways are an absolute joke too, pretty much slave labour punctuated by a day at college here and there.

 

Record numbers of complaints (by staff, students and parents) about poorly written exams following the introduction of equally poorly constructed new specifications (many are being rewritten already). Why? Because Gove didn't give enough time, resources or attention to ensuring this was done effectively.

 

Massive increase in mental health problems among secondary pupils because they can't cope with the frankly inaccessible reformed GCSEs and A-Levels.

 

I'll leave it there. Despite my rantings I don't want to make this an education thing. I just cannot accept that Gove is in any way a great reformer when he had caused so much damage....and we've only seen the tip of the iceberg. Anyone who thinks Gove did a good job as Education Sec should spend a week in one of our academies and experience what our kids experience. 

 

I'm confident that in a decade's time we'll be talking about one of the most disastrous appointments of all time. As I say, I'm not anti-Tory but I ****ing hate that ****.

 

 

 

 

 

I interviewed a young guy the other day who had become a teacher in the last 3 years. He wants out of teaching. He reckoned that 3/4 of his year group have already left. Not looking good. As you say, Gove was worse than disastrous for education.

[Tielemans63]

16 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I interviewed a young guy the other day who had become a teacher in the last 3 years. He wants out of teaching. He reckoned that 3/4 of his year group have already left. Not looking good. As you say, Gove was worse than disastrous for education.

It's really sad mate. He's made a good decision which is a sad thing to say. I'd do the same if I was younger.

 

The need for reform was definitely there, I accept that but what he's done is going to take a generation to fix and that will only happen when someone admits it's ****ed.

 

I don't feel particularly sad for teachers because we chose this profession. I feel sad for our children because very many are getting an absolutely shit deal and I think we'll have some major societal issues in the near future. 

Edited 9 July 2018 by Paddy.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Matthew Hancock moved to health secretary, thought that could have been the job for a proper reformer like Gove.

I think Gove might have his eye on another job!

[ozleicester]

Politics worldwide is a complete shambles, the lack of stability in many of the worlds major countries shows the generational change that will bring significant difference to politics in the next 20-30 years

[Nick]

10 hours ago, MattP said:

Matthew Hancock moved to health secretary, thought that could have been the job for a proper reformer like Gove.

Proper reformer like Gove?

 

Gove will wait in the wings with a 'quiet weaselness' for the Tory revolution - he'll be a nodding dog for May until she falls but without taking up a new position. 

 

He has already blindly tried to destroy justice and education with whimsical, uninformed, historical traditionalist notions  - I wouldn't let him near agriculture and fisheries, never mind the NHS.

[Guest MattP]

Quite a good write up in the Red Box today, this really isn't normal.

I do get the feeling May will survive though, a comibination of no one ready to take over and a desire to see Brexit through first in whatever shape or form might see to that.

 

This. Is. Not. Normal.

"Isn't politics just so exciting at the moment,?" a cabinet minister texts early this morning. That's one way of putting it. This morning Theresa May chairs cabinet. Or what is left of it. The prime minister will look around the famous coffin-shaped table at the latest reboot of her top team, the seventh version she has assembled so far. A prime minister who promised us strength and stability loses ministers faster than I lose phone chargers. And yet, unlike me, she still has power. For the avoidance of doubt, this is not normal. May will look across the table at where Boris Johnson sat as foreign secretary. After two years of icy death stares every time he spoke, she might allow herself a smile to think that the last time he had challenged her at Chequers was when he branded her Brexit plan a "turd" that required "polishing", yet he is the one who now appears to be the busted flush. After a morning of playing Where's Boris? Downing Street suddenly announced at 3pm that Johnson was quitting, depriving him of the late-night theatrics David Davis had enjoyed when his resignation as Brexit secretary broke just before midnight on Sunday. So that's two cabinet resignations within 24 hours. Again, this is not normal. It is the first time it has happened since 1982 when Lord Carrington and Humphrey Atkins quit over the Falklands invasion. And that was an actual war. But this was a tale of two resignations: while Davis managed to present a principled case, arguing that he could not be the face of a deal he did not support, Johnson's appeared laboured and opportunistic. Would he have gone if Davis hadn't? Were the remnants of his leadership hopes torn between the damage of staying and the damage of leaving belatedly? (The Times account of how the day unfolded at Johnson's Carlton Gardens grace-and-favour home is well worth a read here.) Johnson's resignation letter was jollier and more quotable than Davis's ("white flags fluttering ... semi-Brexit ... headed for the status of colony) but it was also more of a muddle. He admitted that at Chequers, after turd-gate, he actually "congratulated" May on ensuring that the government "now has a song to sing", but added. "The trouble is that I have practised the words over the weekend and find that they stick in the throat." For many who have tired of his game-playing, this is what will stick in their throats too. "The dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt," Johnson wrote, referring to Brexit. In fact his leadership dream is dying because of rather too little self-doubt. In perhaps the most Boris Johnson thing ever he posed for photos signing his own resignation letter. This is not normal. One senior Tory texts to say Johnson "has never really gotten how many people he's pissed off – how many of us had to take flack from within and without for doing what we believed is right – while he ponces about, standing on his honour, while all the while we know he was the only one of us that had two letters in his pocket and could have gone either way". So far, at least, the required 48 Tory MPs have not sent letters to trigger a no-confidence vote in the PM. Downing Street said yesterday that May would fight any contest when it comes. Only if she loses would a leadership contest begin. As and when it does, Johnson's hopes appear to have faded. A new YouGov poll of Conservative Party members finds more (48 per cent) think he would be a poor leader than good (47 per cent). As recently as September, "good leader" led by 56 to 36 per cent. Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ruth Davidson all now fare better. Davidson, the Remain-supporting Scottish Tory leader, uses an article for Red Box today to warn Johnson and Davis that they lack the backing to launch a leadership challenge: "With no alternative plan of their own — after two years under which to construct one — they are in no position to rally either the parliament or the country to their banner." One cabinet minister told me the loss of Davis and Johnson was inevitable, adding: "At some point the reality that you cannot simultaneously have an economically successful Brexit that keeps the Union together and that brings us control and flexibility untrammelled by Johnny Foreigner - you cannot have all of that at the same time. Difficult choices have to be made and we are not living in a fantasy world. Some of the people who put us into this position now want to run away from it." William Hague uses his Telegraph column to urge Tory MPs to stick with "Realists" like Gove and not follow "Romantics" like Davis and Johnson. Another cabinet minister responded to news of Johnson's departure with a one-word text: "C***." No. Not normal. Jeremy Corbyn did his best to mock May's mess in the Commons, as everyone looked around the chamber to see if Davis or Johnson had the courage to make a resignation statement to the House. They didn't. "The Chequers agreement now stands as a shattered truce, a sticking plaster over the cavernous cracks in this government," Corbyn hollered. May responded: "I remind him that he has had, I think, 103 resignations from his front bench, so I will take no lectures from him on that." Haha! I might have lost ten government ministers in eight months, but you lost loads more two years ago so nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh. This is not normal. For the fourth time in her premiership May found herself carrying out another late-night emergency reshuffle: Jeremy Hunt becomes foreign secretary, leaving health at perhaps the perfect moment. After serving longer than anyone in the role, he successfully lobbied for extra funding. He got to write the birthday card but won't be around when the NHS actually tries to spend what is on the gift card. Having once said health would be his last big job in politics, for months he has been telling friends he will run for leader. This confirms it. Matt Hancock follows Hunt's path from culture to health: he won cynical colleagues over after he took a demotion to remain a minister when May became PM, and got stuck into the digital job before rising to the cabinet in January. Health will be a big task, but he does not lack self-confidence. And the people now talking about him running for leader are not just users of the Matt Hancock app. Jeremy Wright moves from attorney-general to become digital secretary (despite not being on Twitter), while Geoffrey Cox replaces him. The march of the women this ain't. And Dominic Raab, the son of a Jewish refugee, with a black belt in karate, becomes Brexit secretary, a diminished role since all of the negotiating is being done by No 10 and Oliver Robbins. He has had to wait for promotion after falling out with May in 2011 when he called feminists "obnoxious bigots". But bright, reliable Leavers are hard to come by these days. What we are seeing is the continuing corrosion of a premiership that began after the disastrous snap election, and will apparently continue for as long as May wants to. She had a rough ride in the Commons yesterday, openly mocked and criticised by her own MPs. At the risk of repeating myself, this is not normal. Her Brexit plan, to sign up to a "common rulebook" with Brussels which in theory could be rejected by the UK parliament at any time but with unknown consequences for trade, was shredded by Conservative Brexiteers who now suspect – rightly – that instead of changing tack No 10 hopes to get it through parliament with the votes of Labour MPs instead. No, not normal. She had a warmer reception at the 1922 committee meeting of all Tory MPs, with much theatrical banging of tables and cheering for the benefit of dozens of overheating journalists outside. It was interesting to see during the meeting that Geoffrey Cox, a Brexit-backing Devon MP who spends more time in court as a QC than in the Commons, was brought out by Brandon Lewis, the Tory chairman, to hail May's deal as a "giant leap out of the EU". Hours later he became attorney-general. At one point there were sudden and passionate cries of "No! No!" Had someone just launched a leadership challenged. Had Sir Nicholas Soames offered to do a striptease? No, the prime minister revealed she is going walking this summer, but to Switzerland not Wales, where she had the whizzo idea of calling a general election last year. So they all had a good laugh in front of the prime minister at what a total mess she had made of that. And no, this is not normal either.

[leicsmac]

Yeah, that's a damn good summation Matt.

 

Can't deny it isn't all entertaining in a carcrash kind of way, though.

[Rincewind]

Isn't politics fun atm? It's like a game of musical chairs with spikes on the seats. Cameron promised an EU vote to get back in power but it backfired as he never thought that there would be more people believing the misleading Brexit arguments than the misleading remain arguments. So he jumped ship before the rats and before the shit hit the fan with a nice wad in his backpocket.

Is it any wonder people don't take politicians seriously? What a shambles.

[Rincewind]

I was writing my post at the same time as mattp was posting.

[Guest MattP]

Here's the full result from the Tory membership on leadership, Ruth Davidson obviously can't come into it yet but any leadership race would surely be between two of these now.

Buying some shares in Sajid Javid looks the call, clearly very highly rated by the membership. (Clearly shows what fake news it is as well that all these old Tory members are racist as well)