Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Jon the Hat]

12 minutes ago, Rincewind said:

Isn't politics fun atm? It's like a game of musical chairs with spikes on the seats. Cameron promised an EU vote to get back in power but it backfired as he never thought that there would be more people believing the misleading Brexit arguments than the misleading remain arguments. So he jumped ship before the rats and before the shit hit the fan with a nice wad in his backpocket.

Is it any wonder people don't take politicians seriously? What a shambles.

Cameron stood up and told the nation we should Remain and he lost, he had to go.  You would be condemning him for taking the paycheck with no mandate if he had stayed.

[The Guvnor]

52 minutes ago, MattP said:

Quite a good write up in the Red Box today, this really isn't normal.

I do get the feeling May will survive though, a comibination of no one ready to take over and a desire to see Brexit through first in whatever shape or form might see to that.

 

This. Is. Not. Normal.

"Isn't politics just so exciting at the moment,?" a cabinet minister texts early this morning. That's one way of putting it. This morning Theresa May chairs cabinet. Or what is left of it. The prime minister will look around the famous coffin-shaped table at the latest reboot of her top team, the seventh version she has assembled so far. A prime minister who promised us strength and stability loses ministers faster than I lose phone chargers. And yet, unlike me, she still has power. For the avoidance of doubt, this is not normal. May will look across the table at where Boris Johnson sat as foreign secretary. After two years of icy death stares every time he spoke, she might allow herself a smile to think that the last time he had challenged her at Chequers was when he branded her Brexit plan a "turd" that required "polishing", yet he is the one who now appears to be the busted flush. After a morning of playing Where's Boris? Downing Street suddenly announced at 3pm that Johnson was quitting, depriving him of the late-night theatrics David Davis had enjoyed when his resignation as Brexit secretary broke just before midnight on Sunday. So that's two cabinet resignations within 24 hours. Again, this is not normal. It is the first time it has happened since 1982 when Lord Carrington and Humphrey Atkins quit over the Falklands invasion. And that was an actual war. But this was a tale of two resignations: while Davis managed to present a principled case, arguing that he could not be the face of a deal he did not support, Johnson's appeared laboured and opportunistic. Would he have gone if Davis hadn't? Were the remnants of his leadership hopes torn between the damage of staying and the damage of leaving belatedly? (The Times account of how the day unfolded at Johnson's Carlton Gardens grace-and-favour home is well worth a read here.) Johnson's resignation letter was jollier and more quotable than Davis's ("white flags fluttering ... semi-Brexit ... headed for the status of colony) but it was also more of a muddle. He admitted that at Chequers, after turd-gate, he actually "congratulated" May on ensuring that the government "now has a song to sing", but added. "The trouble is that I have practised the words over the weekend and find that they stick in the throat." For many who have tired of his game-playing, this is what will stick in their throats too. "The dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt," Johnson wrote, referring to Brexit. In fact his leadership dream is dying because of rather too little self-doubt. In perhaps the most Boris Johnson thing ever he posed for photos signing his own resignation letter. This is not normal. One senior Tory texts to say Johnson "has never really gotten how many people he's pissed off – how many of us had to take flack from within and without for doing what we believed is right – while he ponces about, standing on his honour, while all the while we know he was the only one of us that had two letters in his pocket and could have gone either way". So far, at least, the required 48 Tory MPs have not sent letters to trigger a no-confidence vote in the PM. Downing Street said yesterday that May would fight any contest when it comes. Only if she loses would a leadership contest begin. As and when it does, Johnson's hopes appear to have faded. A new YouGov poll of Conservative Party members finds more (48 per cent) think he would be a poor leader than good (47 per cent). As recently as September, "good leader" led by 56 to 36 per cent. Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Ruth Davidson all now fare better. Davidson, the Remain-supporting Scottish Tory leader, uses an article for Red Box today to warn Johnson and Davis that they lack the backing to launch a leadership challenge: "With no alternative plan of their own — after two years under which to construct one — they are in no position to rally either the parliament or the country to their banner." One cabinet minister told me the loss of Davis and Johnson was inevitable, adding: "At some point the reality that you cannot simultaneously have an economically successful Brexit that keeps the Union together and that brings us control and flexibility untrammelled by Johnny Foreigner - you cannot have all of that at the same time. Difficult choices have to be made and we are not living in a fantasy world. Some of the people who put us into this position now want to run away from it." William Hague uses his Telegraph column to urge Tory MPs to stick with "Realists" like Gove and not follow "Romantics" like Davis and Johnson. Another cabinet minister responded to news of Johnson's departure with a one-word text: "C***." No. Not normal. Jeremy Corbyn did his best to mock May's mess in the Commons, as everyone looked around the chamber to see if Davis or Johnson had the courage to make a resignation statement to the House. They didn't. "The Chequers agreement now stands as a shattered truce, a sticking plaster over the cavernous cracks in this government," Corbyn hollered. May responded: "I remind him that he has had, I think, 103 resignations from his front bench, so I will take no lectures from him on that." Haha! I might have lost ten government ministers in eight months, but you lost loads more two years ago so nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh. This is not normal. For the fourth time in her premiership May found herself carrying out another late-night emergency reshuffle: Jeremy Hunt becomes foreign secretary, leaving health at perhaps the perfect moment. After serving longer than anyone in the role, he successfully lobbied for extra funding. He got to write the birthday card but won't be around when the NHS actually tries to spend what is on the gift card. Having once said health would be his last big job in politics, for months he has been telling friends he will run for leader. This confirms it. Matt Hancock follows Hunt's path from culture to health: he won cynical colleagues over after he took a demotion to remain a minister when May became PM, and got stuck into the digital job before rising to the cabinet in January. Health will be a big task, but he does not lack self-confidence. And the people now talking about him running for leader are not just users of the Matt Hancock app. Jeremy Wright moves from attorney-general to become digital secretary (despite not being on Twitter), while Geoffrey Cox replaces him. The march of the women this ain't. And Dominic Raab, the son of a Jewish refugee, with a black belt in karate, becomes Brexit secretary, a diminished role since all of the negotiating is being done by No 10 and Oliver Robbins. He has had to wait for promotion after falling out with May in 2011 when he called feminists "obnoxious bigots". But bright, reliable Leavers are hard to come by these days. What we are seeing is the continuing corrosion of a premiership that began after the disastrous snap election, and will apparently continue for as long as May wants to. She had a rough ride in the Commons yesterday, openly mocked and criticised by her own MPs. At the risk of repeating myself, this is not normal. Her Brexit plan, to sign up to a "common rulebook" with Brussels which in theory could be rejected by the UK parliament at any time but with unknown consequences for trade, was shredded by Conservative Brexiteers who now suspect – rightly – that instead of changing tack No 10 hopes to get it through parliament with the votes of Labour MPs instead. No, not normal. She had a warmer reception at the 1922 committee meeting of all Tory MPs, with much theatrical banging of tables and cheering for the benefit of dozens of overheating journalists outside. It was interesting to see during the meeting that Geoffrey Cox, a Brexit-backing Devon MP who spends more time in court as a QC than in the Commons, was brought out by Brandon Lewis, the Tory chairman, to hail May's deal as a "giant leap out of the EU". Hours later he became attorney-general. At one point there were sudden and passionate cries of "No! No!" Had someone just launched a leadership challenged. Had Sir Nicholas Soames offered to do a striptease? No, the prime minister revealed she is going walking this summer, but to Switzerland not Wales, where she had the whizzo idea of calling a general election last year. So they all had a good laugh in front of the prime minister at what a total mess she had made of that. And no, this is not normal either.

 

Raab has a Black Belt in Karate. So the SAS couldn't sort out Barnier so they are sending in a Ninja.

Edited 10 July 2018 by The Guvnor

[Guest Foxin_mad]

25 minutes ago, MattP said:

Here's the full result from the Tory membership on leadership, Ruth Davidson obviously can't come into it yet but any leadership race would surely be between two of these now.

Buying some shares in Sajid Javid looks the call, clearly very highly rated by the membership. (Clearly shows what fake news it is as well that all these old Tory members are racist as well)

I have to admit that Javid to me looks like absolutely the best call at the moment. He gives the impression of being a more normal man that most people in politics.

 

He is clever, the kind of modern thinker that isn't utterly out of touch that the Tories need to be looking towards. They need more seemingly normal politicians to appeal to the masses. 

 

 

[Guest]

57 minutes ago, MattP said:

Here's the full result from the Tory membership on leadership, Ruth Davidson obviously can't come into it yet but any leadership race would surely be between two of these now.

Buying some shares in Sajid Javid looks the call, clearly very highly rated by the membership. (Clearly shows what fake news it is as well that all these old Tory members are racist as well)

You're assuming May wouldn't win a vote of no confidence.

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

You're assuming May wouldn't win a vote of no confidence.

Literally an hour ago on the last page.....
 

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I do get the feeling May will survive though, a comibination of no one ready to take over and a desire to see Brexit through first in whatever shape or form might see to that.

 

[breadandcheese]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

You're assuming May wouldn't win a vote of no confidence.

I suspect that depends on polling data as to whether a credible challenger becoming leader of the party would improve an MP's chances of reelection at the next election.

[Beechey]

Really can't see the Chequers plan getting through Parliament. Labour voting against it, and by the sounds of it, around 80 Conservative MPs are against it (or at least unhappy about it), with the meeting of the ERG (European Research Group - the anti-EU Conservative Parliamentary group) getting "more than 80 Tory MPs" in last night.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

 

 

So far, at least, the required 48 Tory MPs have not sent letters to trigger a no-confidence vote in the PM. Downing Street said yesterday that May would fight any contest when it comes. Only if she loses would a leadership contest begin. Her Brexit plan, to sign up to a "common rulebook" with Brussels which in theory could be rejected by the UK parliament at any time but with unknown consequences for trade, was shredded by Conservative Brexiteers who now suspect – rightly – that instead of changing tack No 10 hopes to get it through parliament with the votes of Labour MPs instead. No, not normal.

 

Decent article. Picking up on these 2 points....

 

- If the 48 MPs' letters would only trigger a no-confidence vote, not a leadership election among MPs, that changes things, doesn't it?

May still seems to have the support of well over 50% of her MPs and the Hard Brexit minority are clearly divided over strategy - to go now (Boris, Davis) or to work with May, for now at least (Gove, Raab etc.).

May would surely win any party confidence vote, so there presumably wouldn't be a leadership election among MPs or party members....yet. (Unless her victory was surprisingly narrow and she chose to stand down)

I'd say that means she almost certainly survives until October, when there'll be a big confrontation over whatever comes out of negotiations with the EU (either a further diluted Soft Brexit deal or No Deal, presumably).

 

- These Brexiteer fears that May plans to get a Soft Brexit deal through Parliament with Labour votes seem justified. Interestingly, the govt staged some sort of presentation of her Chequers Proposals for Labour MPs....

She must know that she'll almost certainly have to compromise a lot more to get a deal with the EU in October - and her Hard Brexit crew will rebel against the current proposals, never mind an even Softer deal.

I'm sure that Corbyn will want Labour MPs to vote against any deal/no deal that is presented in October, so as to trigger a general election. But will his MPs go along with that?

Given that most of them do not share Corbyn's Euroscepticism (or maybe his confidence in electoral victory), if there's been no large shift to Remain then a lot of Labour moderates might defy Corbyn and vote through a Soft Brexit deal negotiated by May. Of course, it could cause civil war in both parties, too.....and God knows who Hard Brexit voters would blame for this, or what the consequences would be for both main parties... 

Edited 10 July 2018 by Alf Bentley

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

Decent article. Picking up on these 2 points....

 

- If the 48 MPs' letters would only trigger a no-confidence vote, not a leadership election among MPs, that changes things, doesn't it?

May still seems to have the support of well over 50% of her MPs and the Hard Brexit minority are clearly divided over strategy - to go now (Boris, Davis) or to work with May, for now at least (Gove, Raab etc.).

May would surely win any party confidence vote, so there presumably wouldn't be a leadership election among MPs or party members....yet. (Unless her victory was surprisingly narrow and she chose to stand down)

I'd say that means she almost certainly survives until October, when there'll be a big confrontation over whatever comes out of negotiations with the EU (either a further diluted Soft Brexit deal or No Deal, presumably).

 

- These Brexiteer fears that May plans to get a Soft Brexit deal through Parliament with Labour votes seem justified. Interestingly, the govt staged some sort of presentation of her Chequers Proposals for Labour MPs....

She must know that she'll almost certainly have to compromise a lot more to get a deal with the EU in October - and her Hard Brexit crew will rebel against the current proposals, never mind an even Softer deal.

I'm sure that Corbyn will want Labour MPs to vote against any deal/no deal that is presented in October, so as to trigger a general election. But will his MPs go along with that?

Given that most of them do not share Corbyn's Euroscepticism (or maybe his confidence in electoral victory), if there's been no large shift to Remain then a lot of Labour moderates might defy Corbyn and vote through a Soft Brexit deal negotiated by May. Of course, it could cause civil war in both parties, too.....and God knows who Hard Brexit voters would blame for this, or what the consequences would be for both main parties... 

 

If they can't even get 48 letters now I'd say any challenge is dead for the time being, after Brexit maybe, but even Rees-Mogg on the news said he would never give a motion of no confidence in a Prime Minister and I'm imagine the ERG follows him.

 

The bolded bit is the most important and interesting part of the lot, they've even invited Labour moderates and Lib Dem MP's into Downing Street to take in a presentation by Barwell which has absolutely infuriated some of the party. On a quick round up, with a three line whip imposed on the Conservatives she can probably get 26-270 votes, so she would need 50 odd on the other side of the house to get it, that seems very possible with any Labour MP fearing a hard Brexit or fearing de-selection in a potential qucikfire election at the hands of the hard-left. You can certainly see why Number 10 has gone for this route, they can see off the Hard Brexiteers and the Labour front bench in one go.

 

How the public react to it have absolutely no idea, I've given up trying to predict that anymore.

[AlloverthefloorYesNdidi]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Cameron stood up and told the nation we should Remain and he lost, he had to go.  You would be condemning him for taking the paycheck with no mandate if he had stayed.

Didnt May vote Remain?

[Jon the Hat]

57 minutes ago, AlloverthefloorYesNdidi said:

Didnt May vote Remain?

What’s your point? She wasnt prime minister.

[The Guvnor]

Finally after 2 years the govt have a proposal, and after after a bit of tweaking from both sides will be acceptable to the EU. It will be staying in the Single Market, the Customs Union , and allowing free movement of EU citizens into the UK .

Thank fcuk they've finally sorted this out.

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Finally after 2 years the govt have a proposal, and after after a bit of tweaking from both sides will be acceptable to the EU. It will be staying in the Single Market, the Customs Union , and allowing free movement of EU citizens into the UK .

Thank fcuk they've finally sorted this out.

If that happens it will have been tweaked by the EU and we'll just have signed it off anyway.

[AlloverthefloorYesNdidi]

25 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

What’s your point? She wasnt prime minister.

Just thought you said that Cameron had to go because of his position on Brexit. May had the same position.

 

I think he really should have stayed, he called for a referendum which could go either way, he didnt like the result and subsequently bailed.

 

May has been fool/brave enough to take on the position in fairness to her.

 

The whole thing is a mess anyway.  Skewed government over one issue which we have rashly foisted upon ourselves

Should we have a Brexit PM because of Brexit?  That means our whole politics circles around the issue of Europe now.  I suppose it is a big deal and so makes sense, but the country is divided, leadership difficult nigh on impossible

 

 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

If they can't even get 48 letters now I'd say any challenge is dead for the time being, after Brexit maybe, but even Rees-Mogg on the news said he would never give a motion of no confidence in a Prime Minister and I'm imagine the ERG follows him.

 

The bolded bit is the most important and interesting part of the lot, they've even invited Labour moderates and Lib Dem MP's into Downing Street to take in a presentation by Barwell which has absolutely infuriated some of the party. On a quick round up, with a three line whip imposed on the Conservatives she can probably get 26-270 votes, so she would need 50 odd on the other side of the house to get it, that seems very possible with any Labour MP fearing a hard Brexit or fearing de-selection in a potential qucikfire election at the hands of the hard-left. You can certainly see why Number 10 has gone for this route, they can see off the Hard Brexiteers and the Labour front bench in one go.

 

How the public react to it have absolutely no idea, I've given up trying to predict that anymore.

I actually think given the size and scope of Brexit and its implications to everybody this should have been the route taken from the beginning - look for cross party consensus. 

 

The Brexiters clearly can't mobilise anything close to a majority in the House so working across party lines would have meant an agreed position being formed a long time ago. It would probably have been good for the Tories electorally also to be seen as grown ups working in the country's interests with other parties. Even if Corbyn is holding Labour's polls down, Brexit has certainly not been good for the Tories with undecided voters.

 

The vast majority of labour, including momentum and the unions, are pro EU so I don't think voting against Corbyn would actually do much damage. The party want the EU and a left wing leader. I certainly can't see where the split would be in labour as the vast majority hold those views. The most that could happen is a different left winger leading labour which, again, electorally might be good for them.

Edited 10 July 2018 by Guest

[l444ry]

9 hours ago, The Guvnor said:

Finally after 2 years the govt have a proposal, and after after a bit of tweaking from both sides will be acceptable to the EU. It will be staying in the Single Market, the Customs Union , and allowing free movement of EU citizens into the UK .

Thank fcuk they've finally sorted this out.

Shame that the clowns, spivs and liars misled a great portion of the voters by saying "we would get the exact same benefits."  Sad thing is that the clowns, spivs and liars are still saying we could.

[Strokes]

30 minutes ago, l444ry said:

Shame that the clowns, spivs and liars misled a great portion of the voters by saying "we would get the exact same benefits."  Sad thing is that the clowns, spivs and liars are still saying we could.

[Milo]

30 minutes ago, l444ry said:

Shame that the clowns, spivs and liars misled a great portion of the voters by saying "we would get the exact same benefits."  Sad thing is that the clowns, spivs and liars are still saying we could.

Pardon?

[Milo]

Double yawn? Wow

[purpleronnie]

Can anyone see anything else than us crashing out with a No deal?

 

Surely the EU won't agree to the current deal the Tories have, May won't want make any more concessions and face losing any support she still has, but then if she does crash us out she'll be humiliated which surely means resignation.

 

I guess then we'll find out if a No deal really is a disaster or not.

 

 

[The Guvnor]

.

Edited 10 July 2018 by The Guvnor

[Bellend Sebastian]

Does anyone know when I get my Brexit dividend and whether or not I'll get taxed on it?

 

Could really do with the money right now

[DJ Barry Hammond]

9 hours ago, purpleronnie said:

Can anyone see anything else than us crashing out with a No deal?

 

Surely the EU won't agree to the current deal the Tories have, May won't want make any more concessions and face losing any support she still has, but then if she does crash us out she'll be humiliated which surely means resignation.

 

I guess then we'll find out if a No deal really is a disaster or not.

 

 

 

Given Barnier recently suggested a deal was 80% done, I suspect what has been presented at Chequers is the deal! 

 

‘No Deal’ is not actually an option... unless we’d like to give up Northern Ireland and co-operation with the EU on other necessary or handy things - like which side of the Chunnel our border begins.

[foxinexile]

9 hours ago, purpleronnie said:

Can anyone see anything else than us crashing out with a No deal?

 

Surely the EU won't agree to the current deal the Tories have, May won't want make any more concessions and face losing any support she still has, but then if she does crash us out she'll be humiliated which surely means resignation.

 

I guess then we'll find out if a No deal really is a disaster or not.

According to Barnier, 80 percent of a deal has been agreed!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/10/eu-michel-barnier-brexit-deal-four-fifths-agreed

 

All the bluster over "No Deal" is just that though: bluster. I think both the Conservatives and the Commission have had to splash it over the media somewhat to try and demonstrate that they're playing hardball to an extent, however both will make concessions in the end. Plus we have the transition/implementation/whatever-the-hell-it-really-is phase, so this was always going to cover the UK from "crashing" out. Though, as Barnier succinctly says: "It will be clear, crystal clear at the end of this negotiation that the best situation, the best relationship with the EU, will be to remain a member."

 

Amen to that.

[hairy]

I found this interesting to read from the New York Times

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html