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DJ Barry Hammond

Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

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9 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

Enoch will always be a hero of mine. He knew what was coming. A great and very wise man.

 

It is an absolute disgrace for the Labour party to tell Frank Field to withdraw his resignation, or he would be kicked out of it. So mush for democracy. Labour are bereft of any kind of decency.

I see blood In the rivers and water all the time, the guy was a baffoon

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1 minute ago, Dr The Singh said:

I see blood In the rivers and water all the time, the guy was a baffoon

Are you blind to terrorism in this country? It will only get worse as time moves on. It would appear my dear Dr. that in this instance, it is you who is the buffoon, although you appear to be a nice guy.

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Labour party spilt on the cards according to the ST if Corbyn can survive another no confidence vote. 

 

I'm torn, the man is an embarrassment to the country (the video of him out now claiming NATO was created to start the cold war ffs, how can someone this thick even be in politics?) but I half hope he can hang on because of Brexit, think it will be closer this time around.

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10 minutes ago, MattP said:

Labour party spilt on the cards according to the ST if Corbyn can survive another no confidence vote. 

 

I'm torn, the man is an embarrassment to the country (the video of him out now claiming NATO was created to start the cold war ffs, how can someone this thick even be in politics?) but I half hope he can hang on because of Brexit, think it will be closer this time around.

 

If this article is available online, could you post a link - or copy/paste if behind a wall? I can't find it but would be interested to see whether it looks credible or just typical Sunday paper gossip.

I found this, which makes a good point: http://www.theweek.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn/96115/is-labour-facing-an-imminent-split

 

"Ironically, for someone whose stance on the matter has been so unclear, 'Brexit could yet save Jeremy Corbyn from a Labour split - or at least delay the breakaway', says Politico. Many of the MPs who are most vociferously opposed to Corbyn are also the most passionately opposed to Brexit. 'Splitting the party now, these MPs say, risks dividing opposition to Prime Minister Theresa May at the most critical point in the Brexit process, potentially putting Britain on course for a harder exit than almost all Labour MPs are prepared to accept', the news site adds".

 

It would be no surprise if 2 or 3 other MPs resign the whip, either those virulently anti-Corbyn but pro-Brexit (e.g. Hoey, Mann, Stringer) or those who feel particularly strongly about anti-semitism (e.g. Berger). But what would be in it for the wider group of Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn at this stage? They're mostly ardent Remainers - and would know the history of the SDP in the 1980s. If they engineered a major split at this stage, they could keep a pro-Brexit or even a No-Deal Tory Govt in power, particularly if there is an early election. Also, given our electoral system, they'd be terminating their own careers unless they felt confident of winning about 25% national support at the next election....a major task for a new party, as the SDP and UKIP discovered. I could see a major split happening once Brexit is decided one way or another - though that could drag on a long time yet. My guess is that, for now, at most there'll be 2 or 3 more MPs resigning the whip.

 

 

On Brexit, David Davis was on Marr today clearly stating that he'd vote against May's Chequers proposal - even if the EU accepts it in its entirety (highly unlikely). Arch-Remainer Nick Boles has essentially said the same for different reasons, I think - and we know that JRM & co are certain to oppose it, don't we? Unless she really pulls a rabbit from her hat, it looks as if May's plans will be dead in the water when she brings them to parliament in Oct/Nov.....yet a large number of Tory Remainers have made clear that they won't tolerate No Deal, and Labour has done likewise. A major political crisis in Oct/Nov looks certain, doesn't it? Where does that lead? A pre-Xmas general election looks a distinct possibility. Even if the EU were happy to continue negotiations and extend the March deadline, would the UK parliament accept that? I can see both Labour and the Tory No Deal crew preferring to gamble on an election (maybe a 2nd referendum, but that seems less likely)..... 

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22 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

If this article is available online, could you post a link - or copy/paste if behind a wall? I can't find it but would be interested to see whether it looks credible or just typical Sunday paper gossip.

I found this, which makes a good point: http://www.theweek.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn/96115/is-labour-facing-an-imminent-split

For some strange reason I can't find it on the ST website now, I have no idea why. I'll have another look when I get home.

 

edit: It's been amalgamated into another article, here. @Alf Bentley

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2018-09-02/news/theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn-are-staring-down-the-barrel-955ns3jkk

 

 

Quote

 

Tim Shipman | Inside Politics

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are staring down the barrel

MPs are diving for cover as guns are drawn for what may be parliament’s most lawless three months in living memory

 

As metaphors go for what is about to unfold in Westminster, it is hard to top the moment Steve Baker’s parachute failed to open while he was skydiving in Portugal. The former Brexit minister, who resigned in disgust at Theresa May’s Chequers deal, said: “I was in a severe spiral dive, heading through decision height. I could not land it, so I cut away the main and deployed the reserve.”

 

Baker landed on a golf course. Now back from holiday, he is helping lead efforts to kill off the prime minister’s main blueprint for Brexit and replace her Chequers proposal with a reserve plan drawn up by Brexiteers.

“After drifting on the wind, my main parachute was found in a cactus farm, which does seem a fitting Chequers metaphor: cut away and deposited somewhere spiky,” he added.

Baker, a leading light in the European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative Brexiteers, is at the heart of a group — which includes election guru Sir Lynton Crosby, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and David Davis — who are set to launch an all-out assault to kill off the prime minister’s flagship policy. Some think that by doing so, they will kill off May.

 

MPs returning to Westminster on Tuesday are predicting the most turbulent three months in parliament in living memory as May struggles to do a deal with Brussels, see off her Brexiteer MPs and endure a Tory party conference that will be a beauty contest for those hoping to replace her.

 

Government chaos ought to be a boon for Jeremy Corbyn, but the Labour leader is facing the prospect of open insurrection from his MPs over his handling of anti-semitism and threats of a dozen or more MPs breaking away from the party. Four moderate MPs have told The Sunday Times this weekend they are considering quitting even before Labour’s Party conference at the end of the month. They are disgusted by Corbyn’s refusal to adopt fully the internationally recognised definition of anti-semitism.

 

He faces three crunch votes this week that will shape Labour’s civil war. Tomorrow the results of elections to the party’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) will determine whether a Corbyn ally, Peter Willsman — who has denounced Jewish critics of Corbyn as “Trump fanatics” and is accused of making sexist remarks — retains his seat.

 

On Tuesday the NEC will vote on whether to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of anti-semitism in full. Trade unions and even some Corbyn allies such as Jon Lansman, the founder of Momentum, are expected to back the plan against the opposition of the leader and his closest aide, Seumas Milne.

 

Even if the NEC backs the move, it may add an extra clause banning any retrospective disciplinary action, making it impossible to kick anti-semites out of the party on the basis of previous social media posts.

On Wednesday the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) is expected to vote to incorporate the entire IHRA plan in Labour’s constitution, potentially setting up a bitter standoff between MPs and the ruling executive.

The anti-semitism scandal — and pictures of Corbyn apparently laying a wreath at the graves of Black September terrorists, who plotted the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre — have derailed Corbyn’s plans to unveil new policies over the summer. MPs who think he has forfeited all credibility as a future prime minister are now contemplating whether to sit separately from Labour in the Commons, following Frank Field, who resigned the whip on Thursday.

 

The rebels are split into two factions: the “do somethings” and the “do nothings”. Around 12 to 15 MPs are actively contemplating jumping ship, but they are facing an equally determined campaign, orchestrated by the deputy leader, Tom Watson, and Lord Mandelson, to get them to stay.

 

A ringleader of the “do something” brigade said efforts would be made to pressure the others not to sit idly by. “The idea of sitting by for ever, going in to serve in shadow cabinets, hoping Momentum is going to get bored and go away, that it’ll come right in the end, all of that is for the birds,” the MP said. “It is excruciating that despite how disgusting it now feels to be associated with this current party and the leadership, there are a lot of people who say, ‘Oh, my mortgage, my income, where will I get a job?’ ”

 

Another of those who want action soon said MPs are discussing a unilateral declaration of independence from the leadership: “There is talk of moving before party conference. We need to define ourselves rather than have Jeremy Corbyn and his cultists define us first.”

In the meantime, rebel MPs are plotting a fresh vote of no confidence in the leader. In 2016, 172 Labour MPs voted to oust him but Corbyn refused to resign because he had a mandate from the vast hard-left party membership.

 

The rebels have no expectation that Corbyn could be ousted but they think it is important to send a message. “There are people calling for another no- confidence vote in Corbyn,” an MP said. “That’s a way for a signal to be sent, that the PLP is not just supine and is not going to take it on the chin. A lot of MPs are just looking for some way of expressing their disgust.”

Others are concerned that any moves before conference would allow Corbyn to present himself as a “martyr”. One said: “Conference would be a festival for Saint Jeremy.” Instead, some Corbyn critics will focus for now on getting him to back a second referendum on Brexit.

 

Changing May’s Brexit policy is also the focus of Tory rebels — though they have more expectation that forcing her to back down might also lead to her departure as leader. Over the summer a potentially lethal alliance has developed between the ERG hardliners and Crosby’s company CTF Partners to destroy the Chequers deal.

 

The veteran Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin worked on an alternative plan, though this was described by one Eurosceptic as “a Bernard diversion exercise”. Since returning from holiday last week, Baker has now taken the lead in finalising a plan, one that would see the Brexiteers propose a model offered by Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, in March — essentially an advanced trade deal combined with side deals on security, aviation and data exchange.

 

Crosby has now sent David Canzini, a former Tory party official who works for CTF Partners, to work with Baker and Stewart Jackson, a former chief of staff to David Davis who also quit over Chequers. CTF is supplying infrastructure and funding for the campaign. Tory high command is aware that he has approached Tory donors to fund the exercise.

 

One plan, multiple sources claim, is to revive Change Britain, a Brexit campaign group that evolved from Vote Leave, the referendum campaign. Now run by Labour’s Gisela Stuart, some envisage it as a platform for Boris Johnson both on Brexit and if he runs for leader. “They are attempting to take over Change Britain to turn it into an organisation to destroy Chequers,” said one leading Brexiteer. “An army is starting to mass behind an alternative policy. CTF has seen the opportunity to be behind the new prime minister. They want to get Boris in there. Lynton has been raising money.”

 

Another source said: “This is a way of promoting Boris which means that he is free of the ERG and the ERG is free of him, and the two can combine to best effect when it is necessary to combine and it could be necessary in the next six weeks.” The source added: “If we stop Chequers, there is no way she’ll survive. If Boris has the backing of the right, he’ll win. Boris is either in Downing Street by Christmas or is in Downing Street by the summer.”

Johnson’s aides say he has not joined Change Britain and is focused on campaigning against Chequers, not for the leadership. One ally in the wider Brexit movement said: “Boris doesn’t know whether to go along with it or not.”

 

Davis does not wish to see the “Chuck Chequers” campaign lead to May’s ousting, or Johnson’s elevation. He is in close touch with his successor, Dominic Raab, and has lobbied May to accept a Canada-style free trade deal with Brussels.

 

Chequers is also facing resistance in Brussels from the EU negotiator Michel Barnier. One account of a recent Raab-Barnier meeting — passed to other agencies in Brussels — detailed how the EU was still demanding that Britain adopt one of the “off-the-shelf” relationships with the EU that already exist.

“Barnier basically told Raab he can have Canada, Norway, Switzerland or Ukraine,” a source familiar with the briefing said. “The UK has to choose. The EU will dress it up any way the UK likes, call it whatever it likes and make hugely positive noises about the future relationship, but the Chequers plan is not going to fly.”

 

Others say all that needs to be agreed before Brexit is a withdrawal treaty and the promise of a trade deal to be finalised over the next two years, with the specifics kicked into the long grass. Brexiteers do not think May could continue in this scenario. “No one is going to put up with that,” one said.

 

May’s team have been plotting survival strategies. Her political aides have discussed with civil servants whether to call an election if her Brexit deal is voted down by the Commons. They have also openly suggested that she might have to make a public statement that she plans not to fight the 2022 general election. One proposal, that May should say next month’s Tory conference would be her last as leader, has been rejected on the grounds that it would undermine her negotiating position with Brussels.

 

But a source said: “The view is that the headwinds are now too strong to survive until 2022, so the better thing to do would be to signal an end point and buy a bit of time to go on her terms.”

The prime minister might need more than a reserve parachute.

 

High noon for May...

TUESDAY
Brexit hardliners in ERG meet to agree a plan to kill off Chequers deal
THREAT LEVEL: 3/4

SEPTEMBER 13
Theresa May holds crisis meeting on whether the UK is ready for no-deal Brexit
THREAT LEVEL: 2/4

LATE SEPTEMBER
ERG publishes alternative plan backed by David Davis and Boris Johnson
THREAT LEVEL: 3/4

SEPTEMBER 20
EU leaders meet in Salzburg to decide if they are willing to negotiate with May
THREAT LEVEL: 4/4

SEPTEMBER 30
Tory conference. Activists are likely to flock to a speech by Johnson while snubbing May
THREAT LEVEL: 4/4

OCTOBER
May faces final talks on Brexit deal and then a crunch vote in the
House of Commons
THREAT LEVEL: 4/4

... and Corbyn

TOMORROW
National executive committee election results. Will Corbyn ally Peter Willsman survive?
THREAT LEVEL: 1/4

TUESDAY
NEC votes on whether to accept international definition of anti-semitism, against Corbyn’s will
THREAT LEVEL: 3/4

WEDNESDAY
Labour MPs to vote on whether to impose the definition
THREAT LEVEL: 3/4

ALSO THIS MONTH
Up to 15 MPs may resign the Labour whip or organise a no-confidence vote in Corbyn
THREAT LEVEL: 4/4

SEPTEMBER 23
Labour conference. Activists try to force vote to make Corbyn back a second referendum on Brexit
THREAT LEVEL: 4/4

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, MattP said:

For some strange reason I can't find it on the ST website now, I have no idea why. I'll have another look when I get home.

 

edit: It's been amalgamated into another article, here. @Alf Bentley

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2018-09-02/news/theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn-are-staring-down-the-barrel-955ns3jkk

 

 

Thanks, Matt. There are so many variables, I struggle to get my head round what is likely to happen in either main party - or in parliament re. Brexit.

 

That article didn't have much substance pointing to an imminent vulnerability in Corbyn's position. I'm sure there'll be a big internal confrontation within Labour, but probably not until after the Brexit situation is clearer.

Particularly if he's got Leftists like Lansmann and McDonnell telling him he needs to back down more over anti-semitism, he'll probably have to back down - and should do anyway, based both on the substance and on simple pragmatism  - stopping the issue from swamping his reputation and his ability to promote other policy.

 

But what would Centrist MPs gain from resigning the whip en masse now? One or two might do so who have burned their boats, like Hoey, or on strength of principle, like Berger. The Centrists would be better advised to focus on changing Labour's ambiguous Brexit policy at conference - though I think any Labour policy change would have more credibility if it was made in response to May's negotiated deal, not before the substance of that is known. Brexit is set to dominate politics even more than before in the coming months, so what would it achieve for Europhile Centrists to resign the whip - particularly when there's the possibility of an early election? They'd be boosting the Tories, particularly the No Deal Brexit crew, by damaging Corbyn now - and could easily help elect a Hard Brexit parliament if there's an election and they stand as independents and hand Labour seats to the Tories. Even if that didn't happen, I cannot imagine many of them getting elected as independents, so they could just as easily be handing their seats to Corbyn loyalists. If May comes back with a crap deal (likely), if there's a bigger swing towards Remain (big IF) and if Corbyn still insists on standing by the referendum result, then the time might be right for Europhile Moderates to quit en masse and push for a second referendum.....otherwise, I just see the Labour crisis delayed until after the Brexit outcome is clearer (if it ever is).

 

The writer seemed to have better sources/info re. the Tories, and it sounds like a challenge to May might come earlier. Even then, would it be successful? The Tory plotters have to win a vote of no-confidence in May before they can get a leadership election, unless May goes voluntarily (unlikely at this crucial moment, I'd have thought). Doubtless they could rally a substantial vote against her, but could they get close to winning that vote? Even Remainers hostile to Chequers would surely back May for fear of handing power to Boris - and even Davis said he doesn't think May should go. Boris would surely win a membership vote, but even if May goes there's no guarantee that his would be one of the 2 names put to the membership - a "stop Boris" or "stop No Deal" plot might end up with a pragmatist like Javid or even Gove winning.

 

I suppose the Tory plotters have a window of opportunity this month if they want to get rid of May, as it's clear that the Brexit negotiations could be extended to November.....but they'd need a new PM in place by October, surely, and what would the electorate make of that, at such a critical moment?

 

If I had to guess, I reckon May will be there at least until she brings back her final deal, in November or whenever. There will be a big crisis then, which might well see her deal voted down in parliament, a leadership challenge and/or a general election. I can see the confrontation with Corbyn taking even longer - after Brexit is clarified, unless he does something incredibly stupid before then (entirely possible).

 

Mind you, on BBC News Norman Smith was presenting the idea that May might actually get her deal through parliament, whatever she comes back with. His theory was that she can call the bluff of unhappy Tory Remainers by pointing out the risk of them letting Boris/ERG take over the party, she can call the bluff of the ERG by pointing out the risk of them losing Brexit altogether - and she can call the bluff of Tory pragmatists by pointing out the risk of handing Corbyn the keys to No. 10....

 

Clear as mud, apart from that.... lol

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15 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

But what would Centrist MPs gain from resigning the whip en masse now? One or two might do so who have burned their boats, like Hoey, or on strength of principle, like Berger. The Centrists would be better advised to focus on changing Labour's ambiguous Brexit policy at conference - though I think any Labour policy change would have more credibility if it was made in response to May's negotiated deal, not before the substance of that is known. Brexit is set to dominate politics even more than before in the coming months, so what would it achieve for Europhile Centrists to resign the whip - particularly when there's the possibility of an early election? They'd be boosting the Tories, particularly the No Deal Brexit crew, by damaging Corbyn now - and could easily help elect a Hard Brexit parliament if there's an election and they stand as independents and hand Labour seats to the Tories. Even if that didn't happen, I cannot imagine many of them getting elected as independents, so they could just as easily be handing their seats to Corbyn loyalists. If May comes back with a crap deal (likely), if there's a bigger swing towards Remain (big IF) and if Corbyn still insists on standing by the referendum result, then the time might be right for Europhile Moderates to quit en masse and push for a second referendum.....otherwise, I just see the Labour crisis delayed until after the Brexit outcome is clearer (if it ever is).

Mind you, on BBC News Norman Smith was presenting the idea that May might actually get her deal through parliament, whatever she comes back with. His theory was that she can call the bluff of unhappy Tory Remainers by pointing out the risk of them letting Boris/ERG take over the party, she can call the bluff of the ERG by pointing out the risk of them losing Brexit altogether - and she can call the bluff of Tory pragmatists by pointing out the risk of handing Corbyn the keys to No. 10....

I don't think they would resign en masse yet - I think a further vote of no confidence is more likely for last push to get rid of him.

Regrading the vote in parliament, I still think May's plan might just be to try and gain cross-party consensus for it and I think it has a possibility of happening, there are a heap of "Labour moderates" who can take the choice of a her softer Brexit, or no deal/another election with the outcome probably being PM Boris or Jeremy - neither of which they'll want.

 

I just can't see them walking though the lobby with the ERG if they are voting against it, even abstaining might be enough. (Though that would be cowardly on such a big decision)

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A clean sweep for the "JC9" (not a cult, not a cult) to the NEC - including Pete Willsman, who got the vote of over 70,000 Labour party members.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45401017

 

Quote

A Labour Party official who suggested Jewish "Trump fanatics" were behind accusations of anti-Semitism in Labour ranks has been re-elected to the party's ruling body.

Peter Willsman was criticised when a recording of his remarks emerged in July, and the pro-Corbyn Momentum group withdrew its backing for him.

But he is one of nine people elected to Labour's National Executive Committee.

The remaining eight members of Momentum's slate were also elected.

In his recorded remarks, made during a Labour NEC meeting, Mr Willsman also said he had never seen anti-Semitism in the party.

He later apologised and said not all his remarks were accurately reported and that he would be referring himself for equalities training.

Momentum founder Jon Lansman has also been re-elected to the executive committee. Comedian and longstanding Labour activist Eddie Izzard missed out, finishing in 10th place.

Already going off at Labour HQ.

 

 

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Top 9 - slate from a cult that seems to be happy to attack anyone who suggests maybe Labour has a few problems it needs to tackle (like being run by anti-semites).

 

What the ****s happened to my party? Almost expecting that wazzock Galloway to rejoin any day.

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47 minutes ago, The Doctor said:

Top 9 - slate from a cult that seems to be happy to attack anyone who suggests maybe Labour has a few problems it needs to tackle (like being run by anti-semites).

 

What the ****s happened to my party? Almost expecting that wazzock Galloway to rejoin any day.

It’s not really about the incidents it’s more about the way that they are being reported by the media. Boris can say that Muslim women look ridiculous and like letterboxes and doesn’t feel like he should apologise.

Can you imagine the media reaction if John McDonnell said that Jewish men look ‘ridiculous’ for wearing the kipa?

John Willsman said that “Some of the people [criticising Corbyn]  in Jewish communities are Trump fanatics”. It’s not a clever thing to say, but it’s not racist. Same as Boris’ comments.

In fact, is it inverted racism if you’re offended by this comment, on behalf of the “Jewish communities?”.  Perhaps some Jewish communities are politically motivated, and are manipulating the situation for their own ends. Bear in mind that lots of Jewish organisations are suddenly finding that they are being given a voice over all this. Why wouldn’t they take advantage of the situation? What is wrong in calling this out? Are Jewish communities beyond criticism?

I’m not saying I agree with Willsman (and I’m not interested in a debate on it), but it should be a legitimate viewpoint in a society that believes in free speech and not chained to a warped idea of political correctness.

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3 hours ago, MattP said:

A clean sweep for the "JC9" (not a cult, not a cult) to the NEC - including Pete Willsman, who got the vote of over 70,000 Labour party members.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45401017

 

Already going off at Labour HQ.

 

 

If you think he's bad you need to read up on Yasmine Dar who got the most votes. She's an absolute beauty.

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44 minutes ago, Brizzle Fox said:

If you think he's bad you need to read up on Yasmine Dar who got the most votes. She's an absolute beauty.

Not good, why on earth the Labour party is going down this route I really do have no idea.

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32 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

It’s not really about the incidents it’s more about the way that they are being reported by the media. Boris can say that Muslim women look ridiculous and like letterboxes and doesn’t feel like he should apologise.

Can you imagine the media reaction if John McDonnell said that Jewish men look ‘ridiculous’ for wearing the kipa?

 

John Willsman said that “Some of the people [criticising Corbyn]  in Jewish communities are Trump fanatics”. It’s not a clever thing to say, but it’s not racist. Same as Boris’ comments.

 

In fact, is it inverted racism if you’re offended by this comment, on behalf of the “Jewish communities?”.  Perhaps some Jewish communities are politically motivated, and are manipulating the situation for their own ends. Bear in mind that lots of Jewish organisations are suddenly finding that they are being given a voice over all this. Why wouldn’t they take advantage of the situation? What is wrong in calling this out? Are Jewish communities beyond criticism?

 

I’m not saying I agree with Willsman (and I’m not interested in a debate on it), but it should be a legitimate viewpoint in a society that believes in free speech and not chained to a warped idea of political correctness.

 

There is a slight difference between making an innocuous remark about an oppressive item of clothing and smearing parts of a community of first, being fanatics of a widely loathed foreign leader and second, being behind all the allegations of anti-semitism in the Labour party.

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