Max Wall Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 I'd love this to be the case but the evidence so far simply doesn't support it. Am I being overly pessimistic? Any thoughts? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data company Gracenote Sports, which specialises in such forecasts, has updated its predicted title winners from Chelsea to Manchester City, while Crystal Palace's fate looks like it has already been sealed down at the bottom. Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of top-flight clubs and then runs season simulations one million times to predict the final table. Final table Pre-season (expected points) After seven games (expected points) 1. Chelsea (78) 1. Manchester City (84) 2. Manchester City (76) 2. Manchester United (79) 3. Arsenal (74) 3. Chelsea (79) 4. Tottenham (72) 4. Tottenham (74) 5. Manchester United (71) 5. Arsenal (73) 6. Liverpool (67) 6. Liverpool (67) 7. Everton (56) 7. Everton (51) 8. Leicester (53) 8. Leicester (48) 9. Southampton (52) 9. Burnley (47) 10. West Ham (47) 10. Southampton (46) 11. Stoke (46) 11. Stoke (46) 12. Swansea (43) 12. Newcastle (45) 13. Newcastle (43) 13. Watford (44) 14. Bournemouth (42) 14. West Ham (44) 15. Crystal Palace (41) 15. West Brom (41) 16. West Brom (40) 16. Brighton (40) 17. Brighton (39) 17. Swansea (39) 18. Burnley (39) 18. Bournemouth (36) 19. Watford (37) 19. Huddersfield (35) 20. Huddersfield (31) 20. Crystal Palace (30)
Vacamion Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 I saw this on the BBC and thought "Pah, the naysayers and doommongers of Foxestalk in the aftermath of a crap performance, are a far better barometer of how our season will develop".
Max Wall Posted 2 October 2017 Author Posted 2 October 2017 1 minute ago, Matt said: Reckon you've beaten several posters by seconds Couldn't quite believe what I read myself.
Guest MattP Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 It would be incredible reflection of the gap in quality in the division if someone finished up in 8th with just 48 points.
Max Wall Posted 2 October 2017 Author Posted 2 October 2017 3 minutes ago, Vacamion said: I saw this on the BBC and thought "Pah, the naysayers and doommongers of Foxestalk in the aftermath of a crap performance, are a far better barometer of how our season will develop". Do you think we played a forward pass in the 1 million simulations? Edit - That went to one of our players.
Max Wall Posted 2 October 2017 Author Posted 2 October 2017 2 minutes ago, MattP said: It would be incredible reflection of the gap in quality in the division if someone finished up in 8th with just 48 points. True, though it does seem like the big boys are going to spank most others this season (Burnley excepted).
st albans fox Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 Mentîoned this on another thread - we know how much the cub are into stats so perhaps they think we're doing really well to currently be 8th in the table on expected goals rather than the reality
ealingfox Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 I can categorically state that we will absolutely not finish 8th with things as they are.
Max Wall Posted 2 October 2017 Author Posted 2 October 2017 I know it's tripe, I just couldn't take any more of the Silva thread.
sm1 Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 13 minutes ago, Vacamion said: Everton 7th, an' all.... Exactly. Everton are playing even more shit then we are. Huddersfield and Bournemouth, two teams that pissed all over us finishing 18th and 19th, whilst we finish 8, not very likely.
GaelicFox Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 Why don’t soccer stats geeks just watch porn hub more and relax
Ted Maul Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 To be fair, we weren't far off 8th last season and we were absolute dross for 6 months then as well.
gw_leics772 Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 That supercomputer is like a technological version of an optimistic Liverpool(/leicester) fan. "I don't care that we look shit and we've played shit, well still win every other game, then look where we'll be" I think they've missed the bit where they factor in what is actually happening rather than just points dropped.
KingsX Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 FWIW (about as much as the Gracenote projection), FiveThirtyEight has us finishing 11th ahead of Southampton on goal diff. What is striking is that NO ONE outside the top six nicks even 50 points.
Corky Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 57 minutes ago, MattP said: It would be incredible reflection of the gap in quality in the division if someone finished up in 8th with just 48 points. Southampton did with 46 last season.
WigstonWanderer Posted 2 October 2017 Posted 2 October 2017 TBF as has been pointed out by others, a team that loses all matches to the top 6, but wins home matches to the rest while drawing aways, ends up with 52 points. So far we have followed that pattern exactly. It's only if you actually watched the matches and saw some of the diabolically poor play that you'd think something might be off.
Vardinio'sCat Posted 3 October 2017 Posted 3 October 2017 3 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said: TBF as has been pointed out by others, a team that loses all matches to the top 6, but wins home matches to the rest while drawing always, ends up with 52 points. So far we have followed that pattern exactly. It's only if you actually watched the matches and saw some of the diabolically poor play that you'd think something might be off. Don't give me that all that rational BS, where is the fun in patience?
HoustonFox Posted 3 October 2017 Posted 3 October 2017 Statistically speaking, Clive, if my Auntie had bollocks, she'd be my uncle...
Steven Posted 3 October 2017 Posted 3 October 2017 5 hours ago, HoustonFox said: Statistically speaking, Clive, if my Auntie had bollocks, she'd be my uncle... Imagine my surprise.
Babylon Posted 3 October 2017 Posted 3 October 2017 11 hours ago, st albans fox said: Mentîoned this on another thread - we know how much the cub are into stats so perhaps they think we're doing really well to currently be 8th in the table on expected goals rather than the reality Our points return is entirely predictible, I have no problem with where we are with points as it's gone pretty much as you'd expect. Losing your games against the big boys, winning the home game and drawing two aways is what a lot would have predicted. So I can see why they'd still predict that... issue is they haven't seen us get progressively worse and the performances be poor.
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