Also in the news

[Dr The Singh]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

So, in real life @Dr The Singh is a tall, white-skinned blonde woman, teetotal and asexual, a ballet fanatic who has never heard of Benefits Street, has an irrational hatred of Sikhs and the Punjab, but loves Jeremy Corbyn & President Modi and absolutely never vomits on his shoes?

Foook me, that is me, you forgot the big penis though

[yorkie1999]

59 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

Foook me, that is me, you forgot the big penis though

Got or is?

[Dr The Singh]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Got or is?

Both

[leicsmac]

Very enlightening read over the last page.

 

The only thing I'll add is that the critical factor here, as in many things, is consent.

[thebartonfox]

Shami Chakrabarti on Andrew Marr explaining that by “ending free movement” Labour meant making “free-er” movement ?

[Legend_in_blue]

The bottom line on Andrew Marr this morning is this:  how many Tory MPs will it take to bring about a No Confidence result in the government as No Deal draws closer?  

[Alf Bentley]

57 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The bottom line on Andrew Marr this morning is this:  how many Tory MPs will it take to bring about a No Confidence result in the government as No Deal draws closer?  

 

That did seem to be the gist, didn't it?

 

Hammond made an interesting point: that anyone advocating renegotiation but saying we'll leave in October with or without a deal is really advocating No Deal, full stop. That's Boris & Raab, for starters.

His point was that a new Commission won't be appointed until the end of October, so renegotiation before then will be impossible.

 

The outgoing Juncker Commission actually serves until 31st October, so in theory it could presumably renegotiate - but highly unlikely, in practice, I imagine.

We won't have a new PM until at least mid-July, UK & EU institutions will effectively be closed in August....can't imagine the outgoing Commission agreeing to renegotiate in Sept/Oct, just before it leaves office.

There's also the distinct possibility that all sorts of political uncertainty will be ongoing within the EU - Juncker's replacement to be chosen by Council, then President & new Commission members to be approved by EU Parliament etc.

 

Someone quoted Iain Dale saying that the UK should ask for a further 1-year extension and use it to do proper No Deal planning.

Whether the EU would agree another extension is unclear - probably only if it foresaw it leading to a positive outcome?

But that seems a more realistic stance if you're saying "we want a renegotiated deal, but will leave with No Deal, if necessary"

 

[Izzy]

I reckon Raab could win this contest. Tempted to stick £20 on him @5/1 

 

[SouthStandUpperTier]

All these Tory leadership candidates promising to deliver Brexit. Riiiiight, sure you will.

[Jimothy]

52 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I reckon Raab could win this contest. Tempted to stick £20 on him @5/1 

 

Can you imagine Dominic Raab as PM. **** me, that's depressing! The mans basically admitted that he doesn't understand our relationship with Ireland and wasn't aware that we're an island. Stupid, incompetent, vacant, the list could go on. Come back Theresa all is forgiven!

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Izzy said:

I reckon Raab could win this contest. Tempted to stick £20 on him @5/1 

 

 

Those sound good odds, Izzy. A Hard Brexit candidate seems certain to win, due to the party membership having the final say. Raab must be second favourite & there's bound to be a concerted "stop Boris" campaign among MPs....

 

Raab always reminds me of a cross between an estate agent (sharp suits, clean-cut look, untrustworthy demeanour) and some sort of lizard (still facial expression, licking of lips). 

[Jimothy]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Those sound good odds, Izzy. A Hard Brexit candidate seems certain to win, due to the party membership having the final say. Raab must be second favourite & there's bound to be a concerted "stop Boris" campaign among MPs....

 

Raab always reminds me of a cross between an estate agent (sharp suits, clean-cut look, untrustworthy demeanour) and some sort of lizard (still facial expression, licking of lips). 

He reminds of one of those guys who's dad has successful business, but Dominic not being the brightest did shit at school. So his dad makes him work for him, but being the bosses son, he's promoted above his ability, so when people look to him for answers he erms a lot, looks confused and mumbles a bunch of stuff about not really knowing.

[Buce]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Those sound good odds, Izzy. A Hard Brexit candidate seems certain to win, due to the party membership having the final say. Raab must be second favourite & there's bound to be a concerted "stop Boris" campaign among MPs....

 

Raab always reminds me of a cross between an estate agent (sharp suits, clean-cut look, untrustworthy demeanour) and some sort of lizard (still facial expression, licking of lips). 

3

 

 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/moderate-tories-launch-stop-boris-johnson-campaign

[Alf Bentley]

Trust the Daily Mail to ruin my day by raising false hopes: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7071661/Britain-awaits-EU-election-results-revealed-turnout-38.html

 

"The whole of the UK is eagerly awaiting the EU election results as it has been revealed that the turnout was up 38 per cent, an increase of 2 per cent from 2014. The turnout in many areas had especially increased in those places that had voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum vote. Some of the strongest increases were where the Green Party did best in 2014, however it also appeared that  turnout in Labour held areas had been worse.  The analysis from Number Cruncher Politics shows where people are turning up to vote and also revealed that turnout was weakest in areas where UKIP was strongest in 2014". 

 

I'd just got used to the idea of Farage preening himself on TV, having got 35-40% of the vote but maybe not? I'm sure the Brexit Party will still top the poll, but I was expecting the Brexit Party, Lib Dems & Greens to do better than the polls suggest, and Tories & Labour even worse than expected.

 

I'll be tuning in from 10pm like the saddo that I am. Will be interesting what happens in the UK, but also educational to hear what's happening in other European countries....populists doing well in lots of places, I imagine, though apparently not in Holland, according to exit polls there.

[Alf Bentley]

19 hours ago, MattP said:

All women like rough sex don't they? In my experience. 

 

 

19 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

Obviously I can't speak for all women, but yes I do. I like to feel subservient, 

 

19 hours ago, Suzie the Fox said:

Maybe.. 

 

 

So, that's what I've been doing wrong all these years?!

 

Could you post links to videos of yourself in action, Matt? I'm not too old to learn.

Also, would it boost my macho persona and sexual performance if I up my red meat intake? 

[Buce]

45 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

 

 

So, that's what I've been doing wrong all these years?!

 

Could you post links to videos of yourself in action, Matt? I'm not too old to learn.

Also, would it boost my macho persona and sexual performance if I up my red meat intake? 

 

 

Yeah...

 

Some people might think that's just a bit weird, Alf.

[Legend_in_blue]

7 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That did seem to be the gist, didn't it?

 

Hammond made an interesting point: that anyone advocating renegotiation but saying we'll leave in October with or without a deal is really advocating No Deal, full stop. That's Boris & Raab, for starters.

His point was that a new Commission won't be appointed until the end of October, so renegotiation before then will be impossible.

 

The outgoing Juncker Commission actually serves until 31st October, so in theory it could presumably renegotiate - but highly unlikely, in practice, I imagine.

We won't have a new PM until at least mid-July, UK & EU institutions will effectively be closed in August....can't imagine the outgoing Commission agreeing to renegotiate in Sept/Oct, just before it leaves office.

There's also the distinct possibility that all sorts of political uncertainty will be ongoing within the EU - Juncker's replacement to be chosen by Council, then President & new Commission members to be approved by EU Parliament etc.

 

Someone quoted Iain Dale saying that the UK should ask for a further 1-year extension and use it to do proper No Deal planning.

Whether the EU would agree another extension is unclear - probably only if it foresaw it leading to a positive outcome?

But that seems a more realistic stance if you're saying "we want a renegotiated deal, but will leave with No Deal, if necessary"

 

 

Nothing will change between now and October.  Take out the holidays that this lot will be off on between now and October and it leaves very little time to do anything with - and the EU has clearly stated it is not prepared to budge.

 

We're again told this morning that in law we will leave on October 31, it's written in law, one of Rees-Moggs favourite lines - yes, it was written in law at the end of March and it meant bugger all.

 

Meanwhile Farage changes his stance to fighting for democracy rather than his immigration and border controls argument but ultimately he can do bugger all.  He doesn't have the power to change a thing - he can win by over 30% tonight, it's irrelevant, he cannot force a change.

 

My original question is the key question - how many Tory MPs will it take to force a No Confidence motion on the government by October?  

 

We get Boris or Raab or whoever, it doesn't matter, in terms of numbers they don't have the power to pass anything through.  

 

A GE will only serve to spread the voting further afield, especially if Farage gets in on the act - there won't be a majority for anything.

 

It is a complete mess.  One which I doubt will be solved with how the government system is set up in this country.  

[Alf Bentley]

26 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Nothing will change between now and October.  Take out the holidays that this lot will be off on between now and October and it leaves very little time to do anything with - and the EU has clearly stated it is not prepared to budge.

 

We're again told this morning that in law we will leave on October 31, it's written in law, one of Rees-Moggs favourite lines - yes, it was written in law at the end of March and it meant bugger all.

 

Meanwhile Farage changes his stance to fighting for democracy rather than his immigration and border controls argument but ultimately he can do bugger all.  He doesn't have the power to change a thing - he can win by over 30% tonight, it's irrelevant, he cannot force a change.

 

My original question is the key question - how many Tory MPs will it take to force a No Confidence motion on the government by October?  

 

We get Boris or Raab or whoever, it doesn't matter, in terms of numbers they don't have the power to pass anything through.  

 

A GE will only serve to spread the voting further afield, especially if Farage gets in on the act - there won't be a majority for anything.

 

It is a complete mess.  One which I doubt will be solved with how the government system is set up in this country.  

 

Here's the current state of the parties at Westminster: https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/

Con 313 + DUP 10 = 323, when the effective majority is about 321 due to Sinn Fein not taking their seats & speaker not voting.

 

So, IF the Tories keep the DUP onside (big IF), they cannot afford to have more than 2-3 Tory MPs vote "no confidence".

It's hard to see many Opposition MPs voting "confidence" in a Tory Govt seeking to drive through No Deal....not even the small knot of Labour MPs who have voted with the Govt on other measures.

Even Philip Hammond, who has never rebelled in his life, was implying that he might vote "no confidence". Hard to see a new PM getting No Deal through parliament as a deliberate policy.

 

Will be interesting to hear what the leadership candidates say about this at hustings and in interviews. Seems like "we're leaving in October, deal or no deal" is just dishonest rhetoric, given the current parliament?

 

However, No Deal in October is still the default position. So, if a deal isn't passed, then we'd have to apply to the EU for another extension. This is what Iain Dale, a Brexiteer, is recommending - 1 year extension with No Deal at end, possibly.

But would the EU want to give us another extension? Unpredictable given changes in composition of Commission, European Parliament etc & possibly at national level in other EU countries.

But surely they'd only agree an extension if there was a good reason from their viewpoint - a real prospect of a deal, not just the UK pushing the same ideas or trying to get rid of the backstop or wanting time to prepare for No Deal?

 

So, could we end up with Parliament facing a choice between Revoking Brexit and No Deal (if no extension granted)?

Alternatively, could a new Tory leader backslide on No Deal promises and seek an extension to hold a referendum, so as to avoid the potential general election/revocation scenario?

Then again, if Tory voters who have defected to the Brexit Party are persuaded back by a new leader promising No Deal, could that put the Tories in a position to win a general election.....in which case the new PM might want one?

 

Serious high-stakes poker!  

[Dr The Singh]

I voted BNP I hope they win

[What the Fuchs?]

9 hours ago, Facecloth said:

Can you imagine <Insert any Tory Candidate here> as PM. **** me, that's depressing! ... Stupid, incompetent, vacant, the list could go on. Come back Theresa all is forgiven!

Thought I’d edit your post a little ?

[Bryn]

That ChangeUK party is embarrassing, 2% of the vote so far. Literally haven't heard a peep out of them since they were formed, do they even have any policies? So disappointing, we desperately need a centre ground.

 

Laura Kuenssberg is looking quite fit.

[The Guvnor]

They were struggling for a name, should have been Change fcUK All Party

[Mark_w]

Looks like it's going to be a pretty strong justification for a second referendum to me. Can't see us getting it though.

[Strokes]

2 minutes ago, Mark_w said:

Looks like it's going to be a pretty strong justification for a second referendum to me. Can't see us getting it though.

Looks as close to 50/50 as it ever was.

Unless your claiming that labour is a remain vote?

 

Any remainers here vote for labour?

[Mark_w]

Just now, Strokes said:

Looks as close to 50/50 as it ever was.

Unless your claiming that labour is a remain vote?

  

Any remainers here vote for labour?

I'm a remainer and voted for Labour. The Labour vote should be added to the second referendum vote (which is all I was suggesting - not that it's necessarily remain), given that it was Labour's position going into this.