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[ithuriel]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I tried to work through this logically yesterday - see post towards bottom of p. 153.

 

In short, No to your first scenario, possibly Yes to your second.....but it's complicated....

 

- Almost no chance of Parliament actively voting for No Deal....but it doesn't need to, as that is the default position in October, unless there's a deal, an extension request or a revocation

- Little chance of any deal passing Parliament & the likes of Boris/Raab are ruling out any extension (we have to request it; EU don't offer it)....if they can be believed

- Due to summer holidays & old Commission leaving office, EU-UK re-negotiations before October also highly unlikely, so Boris & Raab are effectively advocating No Deal Brexit in October

- Distinct chance that the EU would refuse to offer an extension, unless an acceptable deal seemed possible. If UK just wanted to renegotiate Withdrawal Agreement to get rid of backstop, possible the EU would refuse extension request.

 

To my mind, this means that the following are all distinct possibilities by October:

(1) No Confidence Vote, triggering general election and/or constitutional crisis and/or party splits

(2) Tories call election on platform of leaving in October, believing they can win majority under FPTP by allying with Brexit Party or getting Tory defectors back onside, if anti-No Deal forces still fragmented

(3) New PM reneges on "we're leaving in October" pledge & asks for an extension....but on what grounds, and would the EU agree?! 

(4) Parliament revokes Article 50 at last minute to avoid imminent No Deal Brexit.

(5) One or both of big parties split

(6) Serious public disorder in response to some of the above

So basically 

 

[RobHawk]

How is Corbyn still in a job? Surely the Labour party need to make a change, this is about more than just having no brexit strategy, they have been poor at best since the general election. Even then he didnt do great, just better than everyone expected. 

Also, anyone know how to "short" against the UK banks? Might be a good time if we are jumping off a cliff in October. 

[Alf Bentley]

13 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Only if you leave out the officially pro-Brexit Conservatives and Labour which gives a Leave vote of 58%.  Leave out Labour and it's still 44% Leave vs 40% Remain.  Also doesn't take in to account the fact European citizens were allowed to vote in these elections.

 

 

More like....

Remain 40.4%

No Deal 34.9%

Soft Brexit or Remain 14.1% (Lab)

Brexit Deal 9.1% (Con)

 

That's before the N. Ireland results, which will tilt the balance slightly more towards Remain

 

Some of the Con/Lab vote will be tribal voting. But, if Soft Brexit is now out of consideration and it's just No Deal v. Remain

- Most of the Labour vote should be in the Remain column

- Likewise, a fair bit of the Tory vote (most Tories who'd prefer No Deal to Remain will have already defected to Brexit Party) 

 

No Deal 40% v. Remain 60%, and that's being generous. 

[urban.spaceman]

14 hours ago, Dr The Singh said:

I voted BNP I hope they win

You're like a turkey voting for racists. 

[ithuriel]

5 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

You're like a turkey voting for racists. 

Would have thought it more apt to say, like a snowman voting for summer

[Buce]

12 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

You're like a turkey voting for racists. 

 

Nothing like mixing your metaphors, eh?

[leicsmac]

Random internet find, thought it pertinent.

 

"In general, anger is a better motivator than hope.

 

In general, those who stand *against* something will always gather greater traction than those who stand *for* something, as the former is much easier to frame. Selling a better future is difficult. Pointing out what's wrong and finger-pointing and selling the anger around that is easy.

 

Politicians are salespeople, essentially. That's why the world is currently drifting to the hard-right. Because those who are selling anger can point at the actual working model and clearly articulate what's wrong with it, while those who are selling hope can only show you drafts and blueprints of what it *could* be like.

Unless we can turn those blueprints into an sell-able simulation model as opposed to blueprints being waved around by people more interested in a circular firing squad than improving upon their blueprints, those who are selling anger will win in the long-run.

 

And if they win, those who are the current scapegoats of that anger will pay dearly, a process which is very much already in motion."

 

An erudite summary IMO.

 

The only thing I'd add is that depending on the decisions made by those that win it wouldn't just be the scapegoats that would end up paying dearly in the end, but everyone.

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, Captain... said:

I think we need to exclude Labour and conservative votes when doing any sort of analysis nobody was clear on what they stood for and most votes were probably dyed in the wool voters who voted out of loyalty more than anything else. If you look at those that were clear in their stance on remain Green, LD and change uk got more votes than Brexit and UKIP. If you include the votes for PC and SNP which are obviously not pure remain votes then you can argue that more people voted Remain than hard Brexit. 

I don't disagree with this. 

 

There is no majority for hard Brexit, no majority for a second referendum so it's parliaments job to find a compromise between the two - if they can't do that we revert to the legal position.

[Guest MattP]

5 hours ago, Mark_w said:

Well Matt, all I can say is that (and I appreciate he didn't say it enough - and that you wouldn't know he did based on the news) Corbyn confirmed there would need to be a People's Vote prior to the election, I for one both want a People's Vote and voted Labour (on the grounds that if we do stay in the EU I'm best represented by Labour).

Can you show me where Corbyn has confirmed there would need to be a second referendum prior to the election? 

 

He was on Marr just a few weeks ago still saying the party respects the result and his shadow chancellor repeated that on Ridge just yesterday. 

[Alf Bentley]

It looks as if the pro-Remain Alliance Party (allied to Lib Dems) has taken the 3rd MEP in N. Ireland from the Soft Brexit Ulster Unionists on a big swing: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-48370936

 

So, N. Ireland looks to be electing 2 Remainer MEPs out of 3, and only 1 Unionist....

 

Based on 1st preferences in N. Ireland:

- 57% Remain (SF, SDLP, Alliance, Greens)

- 33% Hard Brexit (DUP, TUV, UKIP)

- 10% Soft Brexit (UUP - originally Remain, now Soft Brexit)

 

Interesting that the Brexit Party didn't stand candidates in N. Ireland.......did they ever explain that?

Presumably to avoid taking DUP votes?

[Jimothy]

Javid joins the race now. Might as well just have an open vote on everyone in the party at this rate.

[Izzy]

2 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Javid joins the race now. Might as well just have an open vote on everyone in the party at this rate.

Flippin eck. Just a few more and we’ve got a dirty dozen.

[What the Fuchs?]

4 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Flippin eck. Just a few more and we’ve got a dirty dozen.

And let me guess, no GE afterwards again, at least Eden had the guts to in 1955. Funny that Theresa May and the Tories slammed Gordon Brown for not doing so and then proceeded to behave in exactly the same way!

[Strokes]

3 minutes ago, What the Fuchs? said:

And let me guess, no GE afterwards again, at least Eden had the guts to in 1955. Funny that Theresa May and the Tories slammed Gordon Brown for not doing so and then proceeded to behave in exactly the same way!

I do think they should be obliged too but it’s not exactly unprecedented so hardly shocking.

[Guest MattP]

13 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Javid joins the race now. Might as well just have an open vote on everyone in the party at this rate.

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

[What the Fuchs?]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

They just want the prestige and the extra £s in their pay packets

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

 

They should just give me the job.

[Jon the Hat]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

Most of them are just positioning for a cabinet job in the new government.  Only 3 or 4 really believe they could win I think.

[bovril]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

Bit like Catch 22 - you need to be sane to be the PM but if you want to be the PM you're probably not sane.

[Jimothy]

11 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's shows how mental politicians are to be honest.

 

You've got to be a psychopath to want to be in charge of this current position yet they are queuing up to be so.

Still think the cat is the most qualified to do when I look at who's running.

[Mark_w]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Can you show me where Corbyn has confirmed there would need to be a second referendum prior to the election? 

 

He was on Marr just a few weeks ago still saying the party respects the result and his shadow chancellor repeated that on Ridge just yesterday. 

He said it on Marr, see a page or two back. (154)

[simFox]

It's odd how people are reading into these results to fit their own narrative. A brexit party has just come out of nowhere and took 30% of the vote, smashing every other party. That's the real message.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

35 minutes ago, simFox said:

It's odd how people are reading into these results to fit their own narrative. What I read into these results to fit my own narrative is...... A brexit party has just come out of nowhere and took 30% of the vote, smashing every other party. That's the real message.

 

[Buce]

36 minutes ago, simFox said:

It's odd how people are reading into these results to fit their own narrative. A brexit party has just come out of nowhere and took 30% of the vote, smashing every other party. That's the real message.

 

 

1

 

But it hasn't, has it?

 

It's UKIP by another name and has only slightly increased its share of the vote from last time.

[Legend_in_blue]

They really haven't come out of nowhere.  Farage has rebranded UKIP, that is all.