Also in the news

[BlueSi13]

1 hour ago, Captain... said:

These results will not be reflected in a GE. Nobody supports the Brexit party on anything other than their stance on Europe. Very few people want Farage as PM for a GE most people will revert to type voting Tory and Labour because they better represent their views on everything not just a single issue. 

 

If a GE is called I would hope it is coupled with a second referendum, which is campaigned on separately stating various options, no deal, any proposed deals, customs unions, back stops, single market, Norway+ and remain where everyone who votes can vote for the party they want and have their say on Brexit. Keep the campaigning about domestic policy.

Maybe not fully, but I think you're underestimating the amount of anger on the Leave side, especially amongst the Conservative core.

 

If the Conservatives do not pivot massively to combat Farage, the Brexit Party will have a HUGE effect in terms of our next Prime Minister.

 

All eyes on the 6th of June now with the Peterborough by-election where the Brexit Party are currently favourites to win.  If they can win here it will send a ripple of panic through the Conservatives and Labour.

[Captain...]

2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Maybe not fully, but I think you're underestimating the amount of anger on the Leave side, especially amongst the Conservative core.

 

If the Conservatives do not pivot massively to combat Farage, the Brexit Party will have a HUGE effect in terms of our next Prime Minister.

I agree there will be a backlash but, Tory supporters with established MPs are not going to throw it all away for a random Brexit party newcomer who will have to go out campaign and be exposed by their lack of experience and political acumen. For an MEP no leavers give a shit as they want to leave the EU so sending an inexperienced MEP to Brussels as a protest is fine. When it comes down to who will be their local MP and actually impact their lives then it is a different matter. 

[Dr The Singh]

2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

The best result of the night has to be Tommy Robinson humiliated by losing his deposit.

I'm really disappointed, being his campaign manager, I feel we failed him

[Legend_in_blue]

This Brexit Party don't even have a manifesto.  People voted largely in part because of Farage.  If he'd gone back to UKIP, the vote would have stayed with them.  Yet again Farage tells us he's now going to form some sort of consensus with the government on how to deal with Brexit when he has been told time and time again that his input is not needed.  As if last nights huge victory will amount to any difference whatsoever.  The guy just doesn't get the message.  

[WigstonWanderer]

43 minutes ago, MattP said:

Why do you keep pushing this lie that Labour is in favour of a second referendum?

 

At this point in time - Labour policy is to negotiate a withdrawal from the EU after getting a General Election - failing that's it's the "OPTION" of a second referendum. 

 

There is some ludicrous assessment going on now just to try and claim the result is exactly what they want.

These are weasel words when you know full well that anyone still voting for Labour when the bulk of leavers have probably fled to Brexit are likely to prefer a referendum especially if the alternative is any sort of hard Brexit.

[Milo]

Just now, Legend_in_blue said:

This Brexit Party don't even have a manifesto.  People voted largely in part because of Farage.  If he'd gone back to UKIP, the vote would have stayed with them.  Yet again Farage tells us he's now going to form some sort of consensus with the government on how to deal with Brexit when he has been told time and time again that his input is not needed.  As if last nights huge victory will amount to any difference whatsoever.  The guy just doesn't get the message.  

I think you can flip that on its head.

 

A party that has only been in existence for a couple of weeks decimates the traditional parties - who's not getting the message? 

[Buce]

10 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Maybe not fully, but I think you're underestimating the amount of anger on the Leave side, especially amongst the Conservative core.

 

If the Conservatives do not pivot massively to combat Farage, the Brexit Party will have a HUGE effect in terms of our next Prime Minister.

 

All eyes on the 6th of June now with the Peterborough by-election where the Brexit Party are currently favourites to win.  If they can win here it will send a ripple of panic through the Conservatives and Labour.

 

Farage will soon lose his appeal once he has to actually have a manifesto and justify it.

 

 

[bovril]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Farage will soon lose his appeal once he has to actually have a manifesto and justify it.

 

 

I don't think that's true actually. 

[The Guvnor]

There is no doubt a massive kick in the gonads for Labour and the Tories. Will this now result in a self preservation excercse to accept a deal, any deal , just to keep Nigel out of the picture at any future GE 

[Strokes]

39 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Farage will soon lose his appeal once he has to actually have a manifesto and justify it.

 

 

He says you will be hearing more about their internal policies over the coming weeks, in the lead up to the by-election.

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

He says you will be hearing more about their internal policies over the coming weeks, in the lead up to the by-election.

 

Good.

 

He'll be able to tell us more about how he wants to privatise the NHS and introduce private health insurance - I'm sure his core vote will love it.

[BlueSi13]

13 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Good.

 

He'll be able to tell us more about how he wants to privatise the NHS and introduce private health insurance - I'm sure his core vote will love it.

Personally I really don't think reforming the NHS is anywhere near as toxic a subject as it used to be.  

 

I think a large % of the populace is open to alternative ideas.

[Strokes]

16 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Good.

 

He'll be able to tell us more about how he wants to privatise the NHS and introduce private health insurance - I'm sure his core vote will love it.

I can’t speak for anyone else but that would not even remotely deter me from voting for a party.

[LiberalFox]

On 25/05/2019 at 11:39, Alf Bentley said:

 

As someone who mainly votes Labour but occasionally Lib Dem or Green, I'm disappointed to see that Layla Moran has said she's not standing. Been impressed with her when I've seen her interviewed.

 

Does that mean Jo Swinson is a shoo-in for new leader, @LiberalFox?

Doubly disappointing, if so, as she comes across as a jaded, cynical old party hack. She may be competent in various ways, but not the leader to choose for extraordinary times, it seems to me....

Nobody has officially announced they are standing as far as I'm aware. I think Jo Swinson would be the favourite, she would have to be truly awful in the run up to the vote not to get my support. I'm a big fan of Layla Moran, she isn't standing this time though. I've not seen Jo described as old before (she's 39). She does come across as a bit lightweight at times to me, but then this party shouldn't be all about the leader. The other likely candidate is Ed Davey.  

[leicsmac]

A quick question for anyone wanting to chip in:

 

The way I see it, a "no deal" Brexit only happens if a parliamentary majority supports it directly or the EU refuses to offer an extension after a certain deadline.

 

Are either of those scenarios actually likely? And if so, could the reasoning behind either one of them being likely be explained?

 

Personally I don't think it's in any way likely so I'm wondering if there's an element I've missed.

[leicsmac]

32 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Good.

 

He'll be able to tell us more about how he wants to privatise the NHS and introduce private health insurance - I'm sure his core vote will love it.

Personally I'm looking forward to what he has to say about science and energy policy - I'm expecting Trump-style ignorance of and disregard for scientific research collaboration and extolling the virtues of coal and gas power generation with like disregard for environmental future...but I'm open to being surprised.

[Heathrow fox]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

 And I'm adding the Lib Dem vote to the hard Brexit numbers.

 

Labour's position is to respect the result of the referendum and leave the European Union.

 

I feel for Corbyn on the issue, he's now behind the Lib Dems in Islington but places like Wigan and Bolsover went to the Brexit Party with nearly 50% of the vote - impossible position for his party.

What’s more important though?A bunch of liberal fly be nights in Islington or the working class core vote.Im a big fan of Corbyn but as expected he’s f,.ked up here.Without it’s core support in the North,Midlands,Wales and I would add Scotland(long since gone)Labour can not call itself a Labour Party.This is where appeasement gets you.

[Buce]

8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Personally I'm looking forward to what he has to say about science and energy policy - I'm expecting Trump-style ignorance of and disregard for scientific research collaboration and extolling the virtues of coal and gas power generation with like disregard for environmental future...but I'm open to being surprised.

 

He describes himself as a climate change agnostic but believes we should repeal the Climate Change Act; he has this to say on renewable energy: “I think wind energy is the biggest collective economic insanity I’ve seen in my entire life. I’ve never seen anything more stupid, more illogical, or more irrational.”

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

He describes himself as a climate change agnostic but believes we should repeal the Climate Change Act; he has this to say on renewable energy: “I think wind energy is the biggest collective economic insanity I’ve seen in my entire life. I’ve never seen anything more stupid, more illogical, or more irrational.”

Yep, straight from the mouth of his idol over the pond, then.

 

Such ignorance wouldn't bother me if it wasn't backed up by the power for it to become policy.

 

[Guest Kopfkino]

24 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

A quick question for anyone wanting to chip in:

 

The way I see it, a "no deal" Brexit only happens if a parliamentary majority supports it directly or the EU refuses to offer an extension after a certain deadline.

 

Are either of those scenarios actually likely? And if so, could the reasoning behind either one of them being likely be explained?

 

Personally I don't think it's in any way likely so I'm wondering if there's an element I've missed.

 

Well it's the default position, it doesn't need support because it's there in law, it doesn't require either of those.

 

If we were to go for another extension(s), well I think its still only France that would be vetoing. Many of the smaller nations/those less affected wouldn't dare waste political capital voting against without the backing of someone like France, whilst many nations (arguably including Germany) would back perpetual extensions. That could change depending on the actions of the future PM. 

[Guest Kopfkino]

42 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Personally I really don't think reforming the NHS is anywhere near as toxic a subject as it used to be.  

 

I think a large % of the populace is open to alternative ideas.

You have more faith than me. The NHS brand is basically a deity

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yep, straight from the mouth of his idol over the pond, then.

 

Such ignorance wouldn't bother me if it wasn't backed up by the power for it to become policy.

 

 

Ignorance is indeed the word.

 

This is a man who said, "I think the doctors have got it wrong about smoking..."

[The Fox Covert]

Politically, just what is there to separate Farage from Johnson and Rees-Mogg? Farage poses as an anti-establishment figure, but is an ex City banker and as much part of the establishment as the Tories. All of them believe in the rich man in his castle, and the poor man at his gate, and one law for the rich and another for the rest of us.

The BBC reports that despite the success of the Brexit party, the Remain vote was actually larger than the Leave vote (40.4% against 34.9%).

No effective opposition, especially in Parliament with a Labour leader stuck in a neo-Marxist mindset from the 1970s. As a result the UK is likely to go through a long summer of political turmoil and, quite likely, a headlong crash out of the EU at the end of October, with no deal.

 

[BlueSi13]

5 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Politically, just what is there to separate Farage from Johnson and Rees-Mogg? Farage poses as an anti-establishment figure, but is an ex City banker and as much part of the establishment as the Tories. All of them believe in the rich man in his castle, and the poor man at his gate, and one law for the rich and another for the rest of us.

The BBC reports that despite the success of the Brexit party, the Remain vote was actually larger than the Leave vote (40.4% against 34.9%).

No effective opposition, especially in Parliament with a Labour leader stuck in a neo-Marxist mindset from the 1970s. As a result the UK is likely to go through a long summer of political turmoil and, quite likely, a headlong crash out of the EU at the end of October, with no deal.

 

Only if you leave out the officially pro-Brexit Conservatives and Labour which gives a Leave vote of 58%.  Leave out Labour and it's still 44% Leave vs 40% Remain.  Also doesn't take in to account the fact European citizens were allowed to vote in these elections.

 

Not like the BBC to put a pro-Remain twist on things of course 

[Alf Bentley]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

A quick question for anyone wanting to chip in:

 

The way I see it, a "no deal" Brexit only happens if a parliamentary majority supports it directly or the EU refuses to offer an extension after a certain deadline.

 

Are either of those scenarios actually likely? And if so, could the reasoning behind either one of them being likely be explained?

 

Personally I don't think it's in any way likely so I'm wondering if there's an element I've missed.

 

I tried to work through this logically yesterday - see post towards bottom of p. 153.

 

In short, No to your first scenario, possibly Yes to your second.....but it's complicated....

 

- Almost no chance of Parliament actively voting for No Deal....but it doesn't need to, as that is the default position in October, unless there's a deal, an extension request or a revocation

- Little chance of any deal passing Parliament & the likes of Boris/Raab are ruling out any extension (we have to request it; EU don't offer it)....if they can be believed

- Due to summer holidays & old Commission leaving office, EU-UK re-negotiations before October also highly unlikely, so Boris & Raab are effectively advocating No Deal Brexit in October

- Distinct chance that the EU would refuse to offer an extension, unless an acceptable deal seemed possible. If UK just wanted to renegotiate Withdrawal Agreement to get rid of backstop, possible the EU would refuse extension request.

 

To my mind, this means that the following are all distinct possibilities by October:

(1) No Confidence Vote, triggering general election and/or constitutional crisis and/or party splits

(2) Tories call election on platform of leaving in October, believing they can win majority under FPTP by allying with Brexit Party or getting Tory defectors back onside, if anti-No Deal forces still fragmented

(3) New PM reneges on "we're leaving in October" pledge & asks for an extension....but on what grounds, and would the EU agree?! 

(4) Parliament revokes Article 50 at last minute to avoid imminent No Deal Brexit.

(5) One or both of big parties split

(6) Serious public disorder in response to some of the above