Also in the news

[Buce]

1 minute ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Yes - but surprisingly I've seen major news outlets (LBC & Sky News) suggesting this poll would equate to a Lib Dem win at a general election.

 

That's not unlikely given that the Brexit Party will take votes off of both Labour and Tories, but I was specifically referencing the Green vote which, though it may still be substantial, is more likely to have an even spread except in a few places like Brighton and Bristol. It's precisely what we saw with the UKIP vote a few years ago.

[urban.spaceman]

Huge police presence in Watermead, apparently there’s been a murder...

[DJ Barry Hammond]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

That's not unlikely given that the Brexit Party will take votes off of both Labour and Tories, but I was specifically referencing the Green vote which, though it may still be substantial, is more likely to have an even spread except in a few places like Brighton and Bristol. It's precisely what we saw with the UKIP vote a few years ago.

 

In their own release YouGov pointed out that it would be unlikely this showing would equate to a Lib Dem win due to FPTP - indeed when I put the figures into Electoral Calculus it suggested the mother of hung Parliaments, with Labour as the largest party in terms of seats.  

[Buce]

Just now, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

In their own release YouGov pointed out that it would be unlikely this showing would equate to a Lib Dem win due to FPTP - indeed when I put the figures into Electoral Calculus it suggested the mother of hung Parliaments, with Labour as the largest party in terms of seats.  

 

Interesting.

 

Could you the full results of that?

[CollinsLCFC]

15 hours ago, Buce said:

suppose we had a government that was opposed to Gay relationships and Gay marriage? That isn't even far-fetched as there are plenty of politicians who have those beliefs.

This is why I believe establishing awareness to diversity at a young age is important. Whilst It will not eliminate all far-fetched views, people will be grow up with an understanding of differences in peoples culture, sexualities etc and society overall will be more understanding.

[yorkie1999]

I see ms Begum's lawyer is saying she was radicalized due to a failure of  uk authorities. I think it's more likely a failure of her parents and family.

[Dr The Singh]

1 minute ago, yorkie1999 said:

I see ms Begum's lawyer is saying she was radicalized due to a failure of  uk authorities. I think it's more likely a failure of her parents and family.

I blame the lack of LGBT education she had

[Alf Bentley]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

Corbyn continually calling for a General Election is starting to look at bit weird.

 

Turbulent, unpredictable times in British politics. An election with 4 parties on about 20-25% would be a lottery under FPTP.

But a lot could change quickly: Brexit deal done somehow - or No Deal, new Tory leader popularity honeymoon, Labour shifts to support a referendum, leader in scandal (Boris, Farage, Corbyn), unpredictable event like war, trade war, terrorism....

 

Here's a salutary reminder from history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SDP–Liberal_Alliance#History

 

"Following the establishment of the SDP, it entered into an alliance with the Liberals. Between 1981 and 1983, the parties together won seats in by-elections in Croydon, Crosby, Glasgow & Bermondsey. 

The formation of the SDP and alliance came at a time when the British economy was in a deep recession and Thatcher's Conservative government was proving unpopular; since coming to power in May 1979, unemployment had risen from over 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 by 1982, due to the closure of many formerly state-subsidised factories. In 1981, there were riots in Brixton, Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool & Manchester. 

 

Meanwhile, Labour had shifted dramatically to the left since the election in 1980 of Michael Foot as leader. As much distaste as some voters had for Thatcher's Conservative government, many people were just as opposed to the prospect of Foot as PM. Many also viewed Tony Benn negatively. Having moved over to the hard left, he had been given the position of Shadow Minister without Portfolio which freed him up from formal ministerial obligations while still affording him high status. His public appearances at events organised by Militant, alienated key Labour figures.

 

With an election not due until May 1984, the Alliance proved to be an instant hit with voters who were disgruntled with the Conservatives and Labour, as many opinion polls in late 1981 and early 1982 showed the Alliance leading opinion polling by a wide margin, peaking with a 50% showing - up to twice the level of support shown for the Conservatives around this time. Steel was so certain that the Liberals would be part of a government for the first time in over half a century that when he addressed the 1981 Liberal Party conference, he famously declared, "Go back to your constituencies, and prepare for government!"

However, a series of events followed which saw the political tables turn [Falklands War; economy started to turn the corner]. Thatcher felt confident enough to hold an election in June 1983 - a year earlier than necessary.

 

The Alliance won 25.4% of the national vote in the 1983 election compared to Labour's 27.6%. However, a mere 23 Alliance MPs were elected, compared to Labour's 209. The SDP came second in many constituencies, including nearly 70% of the Conservative-won seats, though the bulk of Labour's defectors to the SDP in 1981 lost their seats. Due to the FPTP electoral system, this success did not translate into parliamentary seats. The SDP's support was spread out across the country, and was not concentrated in enough areas to win more seats. The split in the centre-left vote enabled the Conservatives to win the election by a landslide."

 

Edited 31 May 2019 by Alf Bentley

[yorkie1999]

Just now, Dr The Singh said:

I blame the lack of LGBT education she had

Every time i see that word i think of bacon lettuce and tomato sandwiches for some reason.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

4 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Interesting.

 

Could you the full results of that?

 

Link to predictor: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

 

 

 

[urban.spaceman]

3 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Every time i see that word i think of bacon lettuce and tomato sandwiches for some reason.

[Suzie the Fox]

19 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Huge police presence in Watermead, apparently there’s been a murder...

A man got prosecuted for rape there a couple of days ago too.

[Alf Bentley]

18 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Link to predictor: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

 

 

 

 

 

Parliament would be even more of a mess with those figures.

 

A Lab/LD/SNP/Plaid coalition might just about be able to form a majority, but doesn't sound very stable.

Tory/Brexit/DUP alliance would be nowhere near doing so........maybe a grand coalition led by Jezza and Boris?!

 

I presume that tool just applies a uniform national swing based on your national figures, though?

In reality, there'd be a much bigger swing to Brexit Party, Lib Dems & Greens in particular areas - and no such swing elsewhere. All very unpredictable.

I think you'd also have to increase the SNP vote figure, based on the Euro results - probably giving them extra seats from Lab and Con.

I'm pretty sure that the Greens would pick up a few extra, too - they topped the Euro poll in Bristol and Brighton, didn't they? 

 

A nation in a state of flux a.k.a. a shitshow!

 

 

Edited 31 May 2019 by Alf Bentley

[Guest MattP]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Parliament would be even more of a mess with those figures.

 

A Lab/LD/SNP/Plaid coalition might just about be able to form a majority, but doesn't sound very stable.

Tory/Brexit/DUP alliance would be nowhere near doing so........maybe a grand coalition led by Jezza and Boris?!

 

I presume that tool just applies a uniform national swing based on your national figures, though?

In reality, there'd be a much bigger swing to Brexit Party, Lib Dems & Greens in particular areas - and no such swing elsewhere. All very unpredictable.

I think you'd also have to increase the SNP vote figure, based on the Euro results - probably giving them extra seats from Lab and Con.

I'm pretty sure that the Greens would pick up a few extra, too - they topped the Euro poll in Bristol and Brighton, didn't they? 

 

A nation in a state of flux a.k.a. a shitshow!

It's impossible trying you work out seat figures for a vote share like that - you have 350 odd swing seats that could go either way

 

if it continues down this line as well it will be hard to justify FPTP.

[urban.spaceman]

14 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's impossible trying you work out seat figures for a vote share like that - you have 350 odd swing seats that could go either way

 

if it continues down this line as well it will be hard to justify FPTP.

The Lib Dem can just change us to PV after they get in 

[LiberalFox]

I wouldn't read too much into GE voting polls. It's good for the Lib Dems of course, both the local and European elections have been good for us in terms of results and increased attention.

[Guest MattP]

[simFox]

Whilst I don't mind my children being made aware about same sex relationships etc.. what I don't like is the government getting involved and forcing it upon them. Who knows what's next.

 

I also don't mind the LGB, but frankly trans and the right to identify as someone you aren't is not a topic for young impressionable minds. How they've been able to align themselves with the LGB community I don't know.

[simFox]

13 hours ago, MattP said:

Corbyn continually calling for a General Election is starting to look at bit weird.

Is this the poll where TBP wasn't a main choice, you had to go to other, then select it via a sub menu...

[Parafox]

20 minutes ago, simFox said:

Whilst I don't mind my children being made aware about same sex relationships etc.. what I don't like is the government getting involved and forcing it upon them. Who knows what's next.

 

I also don't mind the LGB, but frankly trans and the right to identify as someone you aren't is not a topic for young impressionable minds. How they've been able to align themselves with the LGB community I don't know.

It's partly down to being seen to be "on trend". The problem for me is, everyone is told they have the right to be whoever or whatever they are. I don't believe children know what defines their sexuality until at the very least, puberty. Kids will latch on to whatever thing they think is going to make them either unique or popular. Sure, some will definitely know quite early in their development but there is so much vulnerability during puberty that it's easy to make mistakes. The awareness of same sex relationships should be positive and help people to be non-discriminatory. It shouldn't be a way of influencing young people.

[Strokes]

40 minutes ago, simFox said:

Whilst I don't mind my children being made aware about same sex relationships etc.. what I don't like is the government getting involved and forcing it upon them. Who knows what's next.

 

I also don't mind the LGB, but frankly trans and the right to identify as someone you aren't is not a topic for young impressionable minds. How they've been able to align themselves with the LGB community I don't know.

I don’t know what was wrong with the old way of learning about LBGT. Watching your dog bum another dog.

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, simFox said:

Whilst I don't mind my children being made aware about same sex relationships etc.. what I don't like is the government getting involved and forcing it upon them. Who knows what's next.

 

I also don't mind the LGB, but frankly trans and the right to identify as someone you aren't is not a topic for young impressionable minds. How they've been able to align themselves with the LGB community I don't know.

Heaven forbid that the government make ask schools to teach kids about the Nazis or algebra.

 

What do you think Education is for then?

 

The real problem - in the original discussion - is that the adults are small minded and unable to handle the truth that some women don't like men and prefer women, some men prefer men, some people don't think they are the sex that is between their legs, some people even like both sexes. 

 

It's the adults that need the education even more than the kids.

 

 

[MC Prussian]

15 minutes ago, FIF said:

Heaven forbid that the government make ask schools to teach kids about the Nazis or algebra.

 

What do you think Education is for then?

 

The real problem - in the original discussion - is that the adults are small minded and unable to handle the truth that some women don't like men and prefer women, some men prefer men, some people don't think they are the sex that is between their legs, some people even like both sexes. 

 

It's the adults that need the education even more than the kids.

 

 

Part of the problem is the question: Whose responsibility is sex education? The parents' or the school's?

 

I'd tend to the former, at max in tandem with school.

The issue here is that you're likely getting a subjective point of view on the parents' side, whilst you can argue that schools don't always remain objective themselves. This depends on the country, the school system, the school, the curriculum and then the teacher. There are numerous instances that muddle the water, so to speak.

 

I mean, if schools already encourage youngsters to be trans at a very early age, before the body and brain are fully functional, corrupting the parents' role in the process, it makes me a bit uneasy. You could call that indoctrination.

 

The creation and choice of school books, additional literature and educational videos are rather too often marred by controversy.

Edited 31 May 2019 by MC Prussian

[Buce]

25 minutes ago, FIF said:

Heaven forbid that the government make ask schools to teach kids about the Nazis or algebra.

 

What do you think Education is for then?

 

The real problem - in the original discussion - is that the adults are small minded and unable to handle the truth that some women don't like men and prefer women, some men prefer men, some people don't think they are the sex that is between their legs, some people even like both sexes. 

 

It's the adults that need the education even more than the kids.

 

 

 

 

It's when the politicians tell schools to teach kids that homosexuality and abortion are sins that it becomes a problem, and we have politicians who think along those lines.

 

Who gets to decide what constitutes education if the parents have no say?

 

[simFox]

1 hour ago, FIF said:

Heaven forbid that the government make ask schools to teach kids about the Nazis or algebra.

 

What do you think Education is for then?

 

 

Why the straw man?

 

Quite simply we shouldn't be allowing any kind of political agenda or activism in primary schools, it has no place there.

 

No problem with a book, but it shouldn't be backed by targets, measures and an independent review by the likes of Ofsted.