Brexit!

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Read the article.....

A fair point many missed, but whoever's in charge of the Twitter account has still had a shocker with the phrasing of that post.

Edited 11 September 2019 by Voll Blau

[StanSP]

22 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Read the article.....

Fair. I'll concede that one! 

[Strokes]

3 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

A fair point many missed, but whoever's in charge of the Twitter account has still had a shocker with the phrasing of that post.

Absolutely, actually my post seems a bit nonchalant looking at it now. Sorry @StanSP it wasn’t intended to be quite so abrupt.

[simFox]

6 hours ago, StanSP said:

Then what would the government plan to do about it...? 

Mitigate on a worst case basis. That way whatever happens won't be so bad because you'll be ready for it.

 

Armed with that preparation and seriousness, you have the best hand in the negotiation.

 

 

[simFox]

Has everyone overlooked the DUP visiting Boris last night and leaving without a speech. If they had serious reservations they'd have said something, they don't usually keep quiet when they've felt they're being short changed, so I'm guessing they must have liked some of what they heard.

[EnderbyFox]

 

[Heathrow fox]

9 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Most people aren't even paying attention my friend.  We are in a minority.

I sense zero panic and I see zero panic.Brexit hardly gets a mention out in the real world.Infact i think they could call the whole thing off and just about get away with it.The problem is someone would have to put their name behind such a momentous decision.So they try to put it to the people again,this time with a skewed question that will only ever give one possible outcome.Letting our gutless politicians off the hook.

 

 

[HappyHamza]

"£4,563,350,000 of aggregate short positions on a 'no deal' Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson's leadership campaign"

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

[HappyHamza]

And it's interesting that the yellowhammer document released today is basically identical to the one the government called "out of date" a few weeks ago. 

 

The only changes are:

 

1- a redaction of the section that says that a change to import tariffs will mean 2 oil refineries closing, costing 2000 jobs and leading to shortages in the areas they service; and

 

2- The title has been changed from "base scenario" (i.e. expected scenario) to the clearly purposely meaningless "HMG reasonable worst case planning assumptions". 

Edited 11 September 2019 by HappyHamza

[Bellend Sebastian]

43 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

"£4,563,350,000 of aggregate short positions on a 'no deal' Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson's leadership campaign"

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/

This is great news, as at last we learn that there is a point to Brexit after all

[Carl the Llama]

Shorting needs to be given a very serious look, I don't see how it can be socially desirable to create a way of profiting from failed projects.  It basically provides financial incentive to a select few very rich people to make sure large-scale financial disasters happen.

[Benji]

Unfortunately ****tards up and down the country will continue to call this all Project Fear.  One can only hope God sees the justice and makes the same people suffer the most.

[ozleicester]

3 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Shorting needs to be given a very serious look, I don't see how it can be socially desirable to create a way of profiting from failed projects.  It basically provides financial incentive to a select few very rich people to make sure large-scale financial disasters happen.

Modern capitalism

[Gordon the Great]

22 hours ago, Wortho said:

So you deny their terrorist sympathies.......

Absolutely one million per cent the opposite

 

22 hours ago, Wortho said:

So you deny their terrorist sympathies.......

Quote

You Got my comment 180 degrees wrong! The thought of this anti democratic Marxist nut case running the country is really really SCARY !

 

[Gordon the Great]

6 hours ago, Benji said:

Unfortunately ****tards up and down the country will continue to call this all Project Fear.  One can only hope God sees the justice and makes the same people suffer the most.

PROJECT FEAR upgrades!

[Gordon the Great]

22 hours ago, Ali Begbie said:

I’ve come round to  the idea of No deal.

 

 

 

A second referendum is clearly the most sensible option, and has been for the last two years. However, these are not sensible times.  

 

 

The daft thing to do would be to le

ave without a Deal. So let's do that. We'll live with the fiasco for a while until the election which puts Corbyn into power. If we muddle through somehow then great. If not, then we’ll get a referendum on whether to rejoin the EU. Remainers will become Rejoiners (“Rejoicers?”) and Leavers will become Remain (outside the EU). They will love that!  

Within 15 years there will be nothing to rejoin, it`s all falling apart, just not quick enough yet!

[Spiritwalker]

11 hours ago, EnderbyFox said:

 

It's a shame this hasn't been reported more widely in the mainstream news, maybe if it was leavers

would begin to realise they have been duped.

[leicsmac]

27 minutes ago, Gordon the Great said:

Within 15 years there will be nothing to rejoin, it`s all falling apart, just not quick enough yet!

...as before, I'd ask this question again - given the necessity of international co-operation on various problems, why is this a desirous outcome?

[Carl the Llama]

Just now, Izzy said:

Please no.

[Ali Begbie]

46 minutes ago, Gordon the Great said:

Within 15 years there will be nothing to rejoin, it`s all falling apart, just not quick enough yet!

Possibly.  But the need for economic integration in Europe is over-whelming. So the EU might change but the four freedoms and the principles of the SM and CU will persist – just maybe in another organisation. The free market demands it.

 

Capitalism will continue to demand the economic integrations of nation-states, especially in such a tightly-packed geographical small area as Europe. Leaving the EU won’t change the free market system. It just weakens the UK’s position within it.

 

In 15 years, 28 little nation states of Europe won’t be able to compete with the massive economic powerhouses that China and India will become. This will become self-evident in good time.

Once all the hedge fund shorters like Rees Mogg have made their riches from the UK’s demise, they’ll look to invest (some of) their winnings back into the economy to rebuild it up again. And for that they’ll need the economic integration that we get from the EU. They might have to give it a different name, and pretend it’s something different, to spare their blushes. Union de Europe.

[FerrisBueller]

10 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Shorting needs to be given a very serious look, I don't see how it can be socially desirable to create a way of profiting from failed projects.  It basically provides financial incentive to a select few very rich people to make sure large-scale financial disasters happen.

Scary stuff, I don't understand how this doesn't count as Insider Trading (or the equivalent) though.

[Alf Bentley]

13 hours ago, simFox said:

Has everyone overlooked the DUP visiting Boris last night and leaving without a speech. If they had serious reservations they'd have said something, they don't usually keep quiet when they've felt they're being short changed, so I'm guessing they must have liked some of what they heard.

 

This could explain it, though whether anyone can trust a word Boris says is another matter: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49659241

"The prime minister has ruled out a Northern Ireland-only backstop. During a Facebook live on Wednesday afternoon Boris Johnson said the UK "will not accept" it. Earlier, DUP leader Arlene Foster said a Northern Ireland-only backstop was anti-democratic, but believed the prime minister 'is in the space of trying to find a deal' ".

 

There had been speculation that Boris might be about to shaft the DUP by accepting a deal with a N. Ireland-only backstop. That would be a credible option as it would allow for a transition period & would then avoid a hard border in Ireland while allowing the UK to do global trade deals - but with Northern Ireland staying in the CU and subject to tighter EU-based standards & intensified checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea. It's an option that the EU offered to May before she accepted the DUP veto on GB/NI differences - and there were rumours that enough Labour Leave MPs might support it to offset the opposition of the DUP and Tory hardliners (though whether those rumours are accurate is anyone's guess). Of course, that would be a blow to Ulster unionists and a boost to those seeking a united Ireland....but do Tory voters care about the union? Polls suggest that most members would be happy to see N. Ireland and Scotland leave in exchange for Brexit.....

 

What Johnson's strategy is now, who knows? I'm not sure that I believe this speculation that he's open to a deal or might push a version of May's Deal through at the last minute. Even if he keeps DUP support and gets some Tory rebels back onside, it'll surely only be a couple of months before we end up with a general election given all the hype and his lack of a majority. If he does a deal, any pact with the Brexit Party will surely be a non-starter, greatly reducing his chances of winning an election.

 

Maybe he's just indulging in smoke and mirrors until an election happens in which he'll run on a No Deal / "Let's get Brexit over with" / People v. Parliament ticket, blaming the "Remainer Parliament", the "elite courts" and the EU for the impasse. Farage would clearly be happy to stand aside in Tory seats if the Tories ran on that ticket, provided he got a free go at Labour Leave seats.

 

 

[lgfualol]

48 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

It's a shame this hasn't been reported more widely in the mainstream news, maybe if it was leavers

would begin to realise they have been duped.

They will never realise they were duped. Even if they end up living off tins of spam while the Brexiteer government members cash in, it will 100% be the remainers or EU's fault. 

[Dames]

10 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

They will never realise they were duped. Even if they end up living off tins of spam while the Brexiteer government members cash in, it will 100% be the remainers or EU's fault. 

Exactly this. No matter what Johnson does he is now the hero of the leavers story. They will overlook pretty much any transgression because they see him as the plucky underdog taking on the established remainer elite.

 

At this point many leavers will be happy to suffer because 1) They will enjoy and revel in the 'Victory' of Brexit and 2) most of them are chomping at the bit to have their 'We survived x' moment hence why the 'We survived two world wars' comments keep cropping up, its a borderline fetish for some people.

 

In terms of immigration and what not, absolutely nothing will change. The rich will get more benefits and tax breaks whilst shifting the focus to the Welfare state and the every day person will have to pay more in taxes and a higher cost of living with no real terms rises in wages. Not to mention that workers rights will absolutely be stripped back in the name of 'stimulating growth' and 'cutting the red tape' - paid leave, maternity pay and sick pay will be a thing of the past so make the most of what you have now.

 

[Kopfkino]

11 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Shorting needs to be given a very serious look, I don't see how it can be socially desirable to create a way of profiting from failed projects.  It basically provides financial incentive to a select few very rich people to make sure large-scale financial disasters happen.

 

As a reasonably intelligent person, you must think harder about the benefits of shorting if you don't see a way it can be socially desirable. 

 

It might help to not view Odey's or Marshall Wace's entire short position as Brexiteers taking advantage of no deal and what their short positions on Debenhams, Kier, Intu etc are actually built on.