Corona Virus

[BKLFox]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

 

...if we might rewind a bit, I made my OP because other people were making similar comparisons and I put forward Korea not as a perfect match for the UK (I emphasised that in the OP) but rather as the closest possible one in terms of certain statistics crucial to the spread of the virus. Even if the comparison in passenger numbers doesn't hold that much water, is there another country with a combination of a reasonably similar population number, land area and island border control characteristics (no land borders)? If there is, then fine, we can use that one instead.

 

If the argument is that any comparison argument in this way is going to be flawed as differences are too big for reasonable controlling in any case whatsoever, then fair enough and I can see that - however using certain numbers as a "control group" does, I think, allow you then to identify other factors that might have been in play - some of which have been talked about here, such as effectiveness of response and, yes, good fortune. I'm merely putting forward what I think to be the most fitting control group (again, if someone has another option I'd be happy to see it) so that when this is all done people might have a better idea about what factors were in play that made the difference in cases and deaths between Korea and the UK so stark. Because knowing that might be rather important going into the future.

For me that sentence highlighted sums it up..

 

To make a scientific comparison then every variable has to be identical & not just close, all we are doing is looking over that fence again & saying that pear looks more like an apple so lets use that which is mighty dangerous.
We don't even know when Day 0 was for any country, the UK might have been riddled with the thing & having a R3 spread way before another country whilst S Korea might have cheeked a full invasion & only ran at R1 or even sub that, without all the facts we on FT are just pi55ing in the wind.

 

I have said in a similar post the only known is that every country in the world has it & i really hope for the likes of New Zealand that they 'have had it' & its done & dusted for them but to even start looking at NZ now within FT is wrong we don't know the facts & figures.

The FB post @davieG put up highlights this on a person level but its the same the higher the level goes up as no country is in the same boat, i know that will trigger the thats not right brigade who will say "we saw it coming by looking at Italy" etc 'yes' but that doesn't mean you can stop it especially if your already running at R3 but again we don't have the detail.

 

I'm confident that our scientists & government are not Ostriches, they will be looking at what every other country is doing especially those that are hopefully coming out the other end of this to get us on the same footing as quickly & safely as we can.

[st albans fox]

5 hours ago, Facecloth said:

 

 

given that there are around 3 million tested cases worldwide but the maths says that there must be, at the very least, more than twenty times that amount, surely there isn’t a great deal of analysis as to where you caught the thing from across that volume.  Countries such as Korea’s with superb test and trace systems would  be aware but they don’t have a tremendous volume of cases to analyse. 

[Bilo]

Hitting 100k from where we were is an achievement,  even if there is a discrepancy between number of tests carried out (81k) and number of people tested (54k.) 

 

There are elements of the reaponse which have been successful, such as the Nightingale Hospitals, furlough schemes and success of the lockdown.

 

Literally everyone except partisan ****ing ghouls wants the government to succeed on this as failure means more families bereaved, not just a few points lost in the polls. This is why those bemoaning Keir Starmer's constructively critical but co-operative opposition for not being combative enough are out of touch with the public mood. The time for strong criticism will come with the inevitable public enquiry, and the opposition will spearhead that with a far more competent opposition than existed before it.

 

The issue is that every failure causes deaths. Lack of access to PPE has killed NHS staff, the reticence to order lockdown including allowing Cheltenham Festival and Liverpool vs Atletico to go ahead has added to the death toll and having Dominic Cummings on SAGE is as inexplicable as Johnson missing the first five COBRA meetings. 

 

Now the exit strategy needs to be one that will preserve life and rebuild the economy, a tall order. We have to get behind the government on that, regardless of political leanings. 

[Beechey]

 

[Kopfkino]

3 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Well by pre empting that 'sharpening of knives', aren't you just as bad if not worse by preparing yourself to leap into defence of the government before knives have even been brandished? 

 

Whichever side of the fence you sit on everybody should be able to agree that this tribal politics we seem to be moving towards isn't healthy for anybody and both sides are guilty.

 

There shouldn't even be 'sides'. 

 

Yes I fall on one of those sides but I'm also capable of independent thinking. Sometimes my thoughts go against what my 'side' would say. 

 

I fear way too many people at this point just let others do their thinking for them and leap to defence or criticism whenever it suits. Sorry state of affairs.

 

I'm usually a labour voter but given that there are so many uncertainties, I am reserving judgement rather than using this situation to criticise the government to strengthen my argument concerning which political party is better.

 

Given that I've literally just said the target, whether it's achieved or not, is nonsense and that they shouldn't be praised just for meeting it but rather based on the whole system of test, and I said yesterday I wouldn't put any praise on the government for achieving the target given testing has been a mess for too long, it seems pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that I was preparing to leap to the defence of the government. It was merely an observation that here, but moreso in the wider world, that it's been obvious some have built themselves up this week ready for the target being missed and was in response to another poster building a strawman.

[SecretPro]

My father-in-law passed away from COVID last week. He was a care-home resident, got it there but died in hospital in the end. The carehome currently has 8 positive case, already 2 deaths and most of the staff have now moved into the building until lockdown is over. Heroic from the staff at a personal level, but they have been shockingly let down by Government at every turn, right up until the end of last week they were getting nowhere.

 

Considering one of the first policies was for the over 70's to stay at home as they were most vulnerable - why did it take eon's to even think about care-homes. And yet most carehomes themselves were ahead of the game and went into lockdown of their own accord before lockdown was even a thing.

[Nod.E]

Just now, Kopfkino said:

 

Given that I've literally just said the target, whether it's achieved or not, is nonsense and that they shouldn't be praised just for meeting it but rather based on the whole system of test, and I said yesterday I wouldn't put any praise on the government for achieving the target given testing has been a mess for too long, it seems pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that I was preparing to leap to the defence of the government. It was merely an observation that here, but moreso in the wider world, that it's been obvious some have built themselves up this week ready for the target being missed and was in response to another poster building a strawman.

I just think there is a wider theme of people shutting down any criticism as though all criticism is invalid. It just felt as though pre-empting criticism, valid as it would be or not, was pretty toxic and obstructive. 

[murphy]

41 minutes ago, StanSP said:

I'd beg to differ seeing as one person came in here to try and claim some moral high ground about the testing figures and claiming people would potentially be happy if the target was missed 

Not claiming any kind of moral high ground Stan, where do you get this shit?   I  was simply having a laugh at those who were bashing the government pre-emptively for setting and missing the target and imagining their dismay if the number was hit.  Perhaps you're going to play dumb, stick a      in there and pretend you don't know what I mean but you have read this forum in recent days.

 

It's just an arbitrary number,  I don't suppose it matters if it's 90k or 100k since they are struggling to get take up rather than capacity, but it will matter to some very angry individuals who I expect to latch onto it for dear life.

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, BKLFox said:

For me that sentence highlighted sums it up..

 

To make a scientific comparison then every variable has to be identical & not just close, all we are doing is looking over that fence again & saying that pear looks more like an apple so lets use that which is mighty dangerous.
We don't even know when Day 0 was for any country, the UK might have been riddled with the thing & having a R3 spread way before another country whilst S Korea might have cheeked a full invasion & only ran at R1 or even sub that, without all the facts we on FT are just pi55ing in the wind.

 

I have said in a similar post the only known is that every country in the world has it & i really hope for the likes of New Zealand that they 'have had it' & its done & dusted for them but to even start looking at NZ now within FT is wrong we don't know the facts & figures.

The FB post @davieG put up highlights this on a person level but its the same the higher the level goes up as no country is in the same boat, i know that will trigger the thats not right brigade who will say "we saw it coming by looking at Italy" etc 'yes' but that doesn't mean you can stop it especially if your already running at R3 but again we don't have the detail.

 

I'm confident that our scientists & government are not Ostriches, they will be looking at what every other country is doing especially those that are hopefully coming out the other end of this to get us on the same footing as quickly & safely as we can.

Fair points all. We'll have to wait for the full picture for the best idea, of course. But the last part of your post is the most critical part - information for the future will be the best success the UK or any other nation will claim from this.

[st albans fox]

This testing sh1t is peeeing me off

 

the number is just a number

 

we need more than this to relax lockdown

 

so getting to this area is v good news

 

im unsure whether the govt have started this debate to avoid questions about other stuff or if the media are too stupid to ask important questions rather than 80/90/100/110 tests being available ???

 

[SecretPro]

3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

This testing sh1t is peeeing me off

 

the number is just a number

 

we need more than this to relax lockdown

 

so getting to this area is v good news

 

im unsure whether the govt have started this debate to avoid questions about other stuff or if the media are too stupid to ask important questions rather than 80/90/100/110 tests being available ???

 

Don't be silly, I mean it's not like Laura Kuennsburg gets paid £250,000 per annum and has asked literally the same benign question at every presser for the last 3 weeks. 'Will life be normal soon darling...ahem...Boris?'

Edited 1 May 2020 by SecretPro

[Mike Oxlong]

24 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Given that I've literally just said the target, whether it's achieved or not, is nonsense and that they shouldn't be praised just for meeting it but rather based on the whole system of test, and I said yesterday I wouldn't put any praise on the government for achieving the target given testing has been a mess for too long, it seems pretty difficult to come to the conclusion that I was preparing to leap to the defence of the government. It was merely an observation that here, but moreso in the wider world, that it's been obvious some have built themselves up this week ready for the target being missed and was in response to another poster building a strawman.

As I read your posts you are critical of the government but just not on the basis of whether they hit their declared target figure 

[z-layrex]

We have lots of ICU beds now, lots of staff, it feels like the right time for me to begin easing off lockdown. We will be able to cope with the spike.

 

Also Nightingale nurses in further displays of zero tact. They have hardly any patients and are parading their John Lewis and expensive Hunter boots donations all over twitter.

[Kopfkino]

5 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

As I read your posts you are critical of the government but just not on the basis of whether they hit their declared target figure 

 

Well tbh it was a two-pronged criticism. I'm criticising the government for setting what I deem to be an arbitrary target and diverting the focus towards just this number on this date and then I'm criticising anyone criticising them for not reaching the target/praising them for reaching the target because focussing on the target potentially obscures whether they're building a testing regime that's fit for purpose, basically the criticism/praise is mislaid.

 

 

 

 

Tbh it seems to me that lots of people don't like to be challenged, Alf can attest that I might be a diva sometimes but I don't run away from being challenged. Now we're at the stage of pretending people are being shut down, personally think people need to stop being so wet about disagreement.

[StanSP]

36 minutes ago, murphy said:

Not claiming any kind of moral high ground Stan, where do you get this shit?   I  was simply having a laugh at those who were bashing the government pre-emptively for setting and missing the target and imagining their dismay if the number was hit.  Perhaps you're going to play dumb, stick a      in there and pretend you don't know what I mean but you have read this forum in recent days.

 

It's just an arbitrary number,  I don't suppose it matters if it's 90k or 100k since they are struggling to get take up rather than capacity, but it will matter to some very angry individuals who I expect to latch onto it for dear life.

Nothing to do with playing dumb? 

 

Just found it odd you'd mention it when no-one in here would jump on the fact and 'take pleasure' that target was missed? There's a difference between mentioning it as a fact and taking the piss about it?

[stix]

My oldest friends mum has just tested positive for Coronavirus. She’s in a care home currently, suffering with dementia.  She hasn’t been well for over a week now. Not a good way for them to start the weekend.  

[StanSP]

Apparently test numbers in the last few days include those that have been mailed out to people and their homes, not necessarily that a test has taken place or recipient has sent a test kit back ?! 

[Mike Oxlong]

29 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Well tbh it was a two-pronged criticism. I'm criticising the government for setting what I deem to be an arbitrary target and diverting the focus towards just this number on this date and then I'm criticising anyone criticising them for not reaching the target/praising them for reaching the target because focussing on the target potentially obscures whether they're building a testing regime that's fit for purpose, basically the criticism/praise is mislaid.

 

 

 

 

Tbh it seems to me that lots of people don't like to be challenged, Alf can attest that I might be a diva sometimes but I don't run away from being challenged. Now we're at the stage of pretending people are being shut down, personally think people need to stop being so wet about disagreement 

So the government has ballsed up and those who criticise the government based simply on falling short of the target figure should also be criticised although they could have a justifiable grievance if they adopted your own criticism ? 
 

If government has framed success in simple terms then it’s hardly surprising that there are those who judge them according to their own yardstick 

 

I’ve just seen that they hit 122,000 tests - Our health secretary will be minting himself a Congratulations Matt badge 🥳 

Edit - apologies, Matt won’t be doing the minting. Jon is firing up the furnace as we speak - see below 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 May 2020 by Mike Oxlong

[Jon the Hat]

122,000+ tests!  Well done the Government!

Edited 1 May 2020 by Jon the Hat

[Jon the Hat]

3 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Apparently test numbers in the last few days include those that have been mailed out to people and their homes, not necessarily that a test has taken place or recipient has sent a test kit back ?! 

People want tests, they recieve tests - if they take days to complete and send that is their lookout.

If they attend a test centre, the test is the physical swab (or whatever it is), the processing and sharing of results no doubt take a few days.

[Jon the Hat]

15 minutes ago, stix said:

My oldest friends mum has just tested positive for Coronavirus. She’s in a care home currently, suffering with dementia.  She hasn’t been well for over a week now. Not a good way for them to start the weekend.  

Sorry to hear that - a close friend's mum cand be like a second mum when you are growing up.  It's a horrible situation to be in when the natural reaction would be to go straight in and see her, but you can't.

[l444ry]

10 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Apparently test numbers in the last few days include those that have been mailed out to people and their homes, not necessarily that a test has taken place or recipient has sent a test kit back ?! 

https://www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-performance/revealed-how-government-changed-the-rules-to-hit-100000-tests-target/7027544.article

[Leicester_Loyal]

Wow 122k tests, a bloody well done to all those involved in sorting that out, I am very impressed, I didn't think they'd manage 100k+.

 

Regarding care homes, if they are private and residents are paying, do those not running the care homes have to take some responsibility? I know some of them make a lot of money per resident per year.

[Kopfkino]

3 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

So the government has ballsed up and those who criticise the government based simply on falling short of the target figure should also be criticised although they could have a justifiable grievance if they adopted your own criticism ? 
 

If government has framed success in simple terms then it’s hardly surprising that there are those who judge them according to their own yardstick 

 

I’ve just seen that they hit 122,000 tests - Our health secretary will be minting himself a Congratulations Matt badge 🥳 
 

The criticism of both is the same, it's the focus on quantity of tests. The government, at least publicly, fixated on achieving an arbitrary number on an arbitrary date. Badly designed targets just encourage you to achieve them however you can, it can become dysfunctional. But actually there's a point to testing and you should be focussed on a clear idea of that purpose rather than just getting to a number. So crticise the government for the target in the first place and criticise anyone that's been happy to divert their attention from whether the testing regime is effective to whether the government meets an arbitrary target or not. 

 

 

We already see the problem of targets. All you need to do is bung in a bunch of tests not actually done and that helps bump the numbers up so you look better. 

[l444ry]

9 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Wow 122k tests, a bloody well done to all those involved in sorting that out, I am very impressed, I didn't think they'd manage 100k+.

 

Regarding care homes, if they are private and residents are paying, do those not running the care homes have to take some responsibility? I know some of them make a lot of money per resident per year.

The original promise was 100,000 people being tested. Today it was 73,000. Improving all the time but why does the government feel the need to play loose with facts? 

Edited 1 May 2020 by l444ry