Corona Virus

[bovril]

3 minutes ago, Beechey said:

"The good news is the Israel and Palestine border is no longer an issue"

"...we now know that Kim Jong Un is alive and well."

[ithuriel]

4 hours ago, Tuna said:

 

Found out the other day somebody from my works passed away from this bug late last week, in his 40s, then you see stuff like this.

 

[ithuriel]

3 hours ago, Dr The Singh said:

I will join if hugging, leads to sex?????

 

Women only, to be clear.

Typhoid Mary move over, Share it with Singh is in town 

[brucey]

 

[Lionator]

I've just read a mathematical model from Oxford which suggests that a certain level of immunity could have been reached. The idea is that the most susceptible in society will have caught it first and this subsequently slows the rate of transmission down quite significantly. The level of that variation in susceptibility could have an influence, the more variation, the slower the virus will spread. I don't really understand the model that well, it's way above my station however it could genuinely just stop which could explain why Sweden, while bad, hasn't got horrendously bad, and why South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan haven't seen second waves.

 

It's a bit of positivity to cling onto but we won't know for a while if it materialises as there'll always be that cloud of second eave lingering. 

[fox_up_north]

I'm slowly getting to the end of my tether just being cooped up in the house. I absolutely feel for people who have lost loved ones to this but I'm also finding myself a lot more short tempered with the other half and we're on the verge of separate bedrooms. I am trying my damnedest not to go out. I do a run a couple of times a week or a long walk of an hour (ish) and avoid people as much as I can. Supermarkets are a nightmare and I've given up trying to distance in them. 

 

If the govt announce 3-4 more weeks of this I'll really struggle.

[st albans fox]

22 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I've just read a mathematical model from Oxford which suggests that a certain level of immunity could have been reached. The idea is that the most susceptible in society will have caught it first and this subsequently slows the rate of transmission down quite significantly. The level of that variation in susceptibility could have an influence, the more variation, the slower the virus will spread. I don't really understand the model that well, it's way above my station however it could genuinely just stop which could explain why Sweden, while bad, hasn't got horrendously bad, and why South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan haven't seen second waves.

 

It's a bit of positivity to cling onto but we won't know for a while if it materialises as there'll always be that cloud of second eave lingering. 

Doesn’t that sort of hark back to the Israeli professor’s  theory that said that it seems to last for approx 70 days and then go away ?????  
 

cant get my head around that ......

[foxfanazer]

Aren't we at risk of our immune systems falling to a dangerous level the longer we stay in lockdown? Might be a stupid question but I can see people getting pretty ill once we're allowed back out

[Wymsey]

Seemed like a normal busy Saturday today locally.

Think the lockdown guidance is being broken more and more now, as if some think this virus is in the past.

Edited 2 May 2020 by Wymsey

[Lionator]

14 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Doesn’t that sort of hark back to the Israeli professor’s  theory that said that it seems to last for approx 70 days and then go away ?????  
 

cant get my head around that ......

I’ve not read that, might give it a quick google before sleep...wild Saturday night ey 😂

 

I mean I guess it does make sense theoretically. 
 

11 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

Aren't we at risk of our immune systems falling to a dangerous level the longer we stay in lockdown? Might be a stupid question but I can see people getting pretty ill once we're allowed back out

I guess that’s the benefit of it happening now, flu’s, colds and stomach bugs are on the wane as we go into early summer. 

[Nod.E]

43 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I've just read a mathematical model from Oxford which suggests that a certain level of immunity could have been reached. The idea is that the most susceptible in society will have caught it first and this subsequently slows the rate of transmission down quite significantly. The level of that variation in susceptibility could have an influence, the more variation, the slower the virus will spread. I don't really understand the model that well, it's way above my station however it could genuinely just stop which could explain why Sweden, while bad, hasn't got horrendously bad, and why South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan haven't seen second waves.

 

It's a bit of positivity to cling onto but we won't know for a while if it materialises as there'll always be that cloud of second eave lingering. 

Get me to Oxford

 

 

[Lionator]

4 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

Get me to Oxford

 

 

You’ve summarised that on April 10th better than that paper could now!! 
 

Say for example, why are cases in certain US states not rocketing when they’ve had absolutely no lockdown? Why are only a certain % (almost always 20%-30%) getting infected on these ships? Like you say it may just be coincidence but when you put it like that, maybe there’s something in what you said. 

Edited 2 May 2020 by Lionator

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, Izzy said:

A perfect illustration of the problems with some of the American simplifications of the English language. Also see tire and tyre.

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Lionator said:

I've just read a mathematical model from Oxford which suggests that a certain level of immunity could have been reached. The idea is that the most susceptible in society will have caught it first and this subsequently slows the rate of transmission down quite significantly. The level of that variation in susceptibility could have an influence, the more variation, the slower the virus will spread. I don't really understand the model that well, it's way above my station however it could genuinely just stop which could explain why Sweden, while bad, hasn't got horrendously bad, and why South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan haven't seen second waves.

 

It's a bit of positivity to cling onto but we won't know for a while if it materialises as there'll always be that cloud of second eave lingering. 

Do you have a link? Is this the same Oxford paper mentioned some time ago led by Prof Sunetra Gupta?

Edited 2 May 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[WigstonWanderer]

Not sure if this has been posted before, but according to this article the Wuhan lab close to the wet market was part funded by a US agency headed by Prof Fauci to do “gain of function” research on bat viruses. This attempts to modify viruses to make them more able to transmit from human to human. The idea is that they can then be studied to shed light on possible anti virals, etc. Dangerous stuff!

 

https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741

 

Edited 2 May 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[lestajigs]

7 hours ago, Tuna said:

 

I cannot even think of a word to call these

[PAULCFC]

1 hour ago, fox_up_north said:

I'm slowly getting to the end of my tether just being cooped up in the house. I absolutely feel for people who have lost loved ones to this but I'm also finding myself a lot more short tempered with the other half and we're on the verge of separate bedrooms. I am trying my damnedest not to go out. I do a run a couple of times a week or a long walk of an hour (ish) and avoid people as much as I can. Supermarkets are a nightmare and I've given up trying to distance in them. 

 

If the govt announce 3-4 more weeks of this I'll really struggle.

Feel your'e pain mate.We have 6 and 9 yr old's that are doing my head in....Then the Mrs is expecting me to Miracles around the house...ok i've done a bit of painting,mowed the grass etc And then i have my dad in a care home with deminita...Happy Days!

[Nod.E]

2 hours ago, fox_up_north said:

I'm slowly getting to the end of my tether just being cooped up in the house. I absolutely feel for people who have lost loved ones to this but I'm also finding myself a lot more short tempered with the other half and we're on the verge of separate bedrooms. I am trying my damnedest not to go out. I do a run a couple of times a week or a long walk of an hour (ish) and avoid people as much as I can. Supermarkets are a nightmare and I've given up trying to distance in them. 

 

If the govt announce 3-4 more weeks of this I'll really struggle.

There are rumours going around the golfing community that 11th May is a date for the diary for us to earmark as a return.

 

Who knows if true, but if it is you'd think it would be based on some confidence that measures are going to be relaxed.

 

Nearly there, keep going. 

Edited 3 May 2020 by Nod.E

[Stivo]

7 hours ago, Lionator said:

Why are only a certain % (almost always 20%-30%) getting infected on these ships?

You would expect people in a closed environment on a ship to reach a herd immunity if no one is quarantined. The french aircraft carrier reached 50% which is more plausible though.  So if everyone passes it on to 2 others when you get to 50% already exposed only one of those 2 people can actually get it and your R is then 1. Add a few more and it’s under 1.

[Guest Markyblue]

10 hours ago, Lionator said:

I've just read a mathematical model from Oxford which suggests that a certain level of immunity could have been reached. The idea is that the most susceptible in society will have caught it first and this subsequently slows the rate of transmission down quite significantly. The level of that variation in susceptibility could have an influence, the more variation, the slower the virus will spread. I don't really understand the model that well, it's way above my station however it could genuinely just stop which could explain why Sweden, while bad, hasn't got horrendously bad, and why South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan haven't seen second waves.

 

It's a bit of positivity to cling onto but we won't know for a while if it materialises as there'll always be that cloud of second eave lingering. 

There's a eminent professor from Sweden who reckons they will have herd immunity in Stockholm by end of may.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Stivo said:

You would expect people in a closed environment on a ship to reach a herd immunity if no one is quarantined. The french aircraft carrier reached 50% which is more plausible though.  So if everyone passes it on to 2 others when you get to 50% already exposed only one of those 2 people can actually get it and your R is then 1. Add a few more and it’s under 1.

a us jail is apparently 80% infected .........

[yorkie1999]

10 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Doesn’t that sort of hark back to the Israeli professor’s  theory that said that it seems to last for approx 70 days and then go away ?????  
 

cant get my head around that ......

I think that once you go into lockdown the virus will eventually run out of hosts and those hosts that have the virus either get better or die. 

[WigstonWanderer]

I think this is the Oxford paper that got people excited about significant herd immunity having been reached a few weeks back. I don’t think it’s the same one as @Lionator mentioned to above.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1.full.pdf

 

As far as I can tell it doesn’t really add much that we haven’t discussed here already. Unless I’ve misunderstood (quite possible), it’s (indirectly) saying that if the infection fatality rate is small, then judging by the number of actual deaths, the proportion of population that has been infected (and therefore assumed to be immune) is large. Likewise, if a much higher infection fatality rate is assumed you get a much smaller proportion that have already been infected. That’s pretty much what was concluded here.

 

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could check it out to confirm.

Edited 3 May 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Beechey]

The Mayor of Moscow estimates that around 250,000 people in that city have contracted Coronavirus.

 

Just goes to show why comparing country-to-country statistics is completely counterproductive.

Officially, all of Russia has had 134,000 cases and only 1,280 deaths. Somehow a country with a notoriously poor health system has an incredibly low death rate...

 

I await the "UK has the second most deaths in the world!" headlines soon.

Edited 3 May 2020 by Beechey

[st albans fox]

33 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think that once you go into lockdown the virus will eventually run out of hosts and those hosts that have the virus either get better or die. 

But we aren’t really in lockdown ...... Italy and Spain have been in a closer set up to that than we have. China were even moreso than them. 
 

I hope we don’t rue the fact that we weren’t prepared to impose a stricter lockdown and see us endure a longer period of restrictions as a result .