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Coronavirus Thread

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55 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Earlier this year, we were told that Italy was suffering badly, due to its high proportion of older people and because of extended families living together. However, fast forward six months, and Italy is showing few signs of a second wave, whilst in Spain, France and the UK, cases are rocketing back up. What's Italy doing right that the other three are doing wrong?  

Excellent point. 

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56 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Where are all these mass gatherings happening? 

That’s what I want to know. I don’t disagree that there have been some, I just think the shutting down of house parties get reported in the media and the government have the scapegoat they need.

 

I really don’t think people’s behaviour is much different now than it was mid to late June, particularly where I live which has been out of lockdown since National restrictions were lifted and is mega busy most days.

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The problem with the CEBM is that it’s evidence based, which 99.9% of the time is great as it’s based on stuff which has already happened. However this is the 0.1% occasion where we don’t know what will happen as it’s a new disease in a season which we haven’t seen before. 

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Conveniently, this video popped up the moment after I watched Whitty's press conference this morning:

 

 

The same Professor has released a paper today using Whitty's press conference and unpicking the data.

 

 

In a press briefing today Professors Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance showed epidemic curves for Spain and France, showing how cases numbers have been growing rapidly, possibly exponentially starting in August. 

As is often done when using case numbers by publishing date, the raw numbers are smoothed with a seven-day moving average. Drawn this way, the data shows a continued upward trend. 

Drawing the epidemic curve for Spain using cases by symptom onset produces a different result.

 

The graph for the UK using system onset produces this:

 

image.png.e0060ec5c68ee6d462438ae335ac3e16.png

 

Second wave?  Perhaps not.  In the video the guy recommends extending the Xmas break period to allow for a break in seasonal transmission as doing so now would be ineffective longer term over the winter season.  That's a fair point.  

 

Boris needs to tread carefully because his rhetoric at the moment looks decidedly dodgy imo.

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1 hour ago, RowlattsFox said:

Where are all these mass gatherings happening? 

BLM protests, Liverpool fans celebrating winning the league, Leeds fans celebrating promotion, VE Day parties, Bournemouth beach gatherings. 
 

Incidentally did we see a sudden surge in cases from all of the above like we were told would happen? 

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4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What will pubs shutting at 10pm actually do?

 

Won't it just mean bigger gatherings before that time?

I guess its aim is to stop students and other young people who tend to go out at that time, I remember those days :sleep: I don't know where they're going though. I am sure they'llll all justt agree and follow the instruction..

 

A day session watching the football finishing in time for 10pm sounds ok to me. 

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44 minutes ago, simFox said:

Yet Peru with the harshest of all lockdowns has had one of the worst deathrates.

 

The only thing a lockdown does is delay the inevitable.

 

People in Brazil are getting through it with next to no restrictions whatsoever, it's them that will be back to normal soonest while the rest of us are still locking-down and self destructing in multiple ways.

What? No, it stopped thousands of deaths and other unneeded deaths from over clogging the NHS. 

 

Brazil and Peru I assume has the same level of testing and quality of predictions as the UK? You can't just throw out any comparison between nations with hugely different variables. 

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8 minutes ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

BLM protests, Liverpool fans celebrating winning the league, Leeds fans celebrating promotion, VE Day parties, Bournemouth beach gatherings. 
 

Incidentally did we see a sudden surge in cases from all of the above like we were told would happen? 

No. We’ve seen increases since schools and universities re-opened and I’ll bet that we see a reduction 2-3 weeks after the half term break, coincidently at about the same time we will start to see a reduction because of the new measures that will come into place, well done, a big pat on the back. The government don’t want pubs open because they don’t get invited, apart from Nigel farage, and they want us all to be missable gits.

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5 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

No. We’ve seen increases since schools and universities re-opened and I’ll bet that we see a reduction 2-3 weeks after the half term break, coincidently at about the same time we will start to see a reduction because of the new measures that will come into place, well done, a big pat on the back. The government don’t want pubs open because they don’t get invited, apart from Nigel farage, and they want us all to be missable gits.

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

Edited by Trumpet
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5 minutes ago, Trumpet said:

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

Schools opened at the end of August here.

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4 minutes ago, Trumpet said:

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

They went up because everyone was being encouraged to eat out surely? Plus pubs had reopened not long before.

 

With schools and unis being back open, those cases will jump up now (as they already have tbf), you've got 20+ in the same room.

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1 minute ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The two head scientists disagree.  They are adamant that cases in children have not risen at all.

Most of the people interviewed when waiting for tests on the news that I've seen were there because their school age child/ grandchild had symptoms.

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47 minutes ago, Line-X said:

As I explained this picture is not a simple one. There are a huge amount of variables involved. One of the reasons that Peru was his so hard was in spite of the lockdown was a woefully underprepared and under sourced healthcare system exacerbated by poor standards of living, higher levels of income vulnerability a weak social contract, causing many to flout government restrictions and poor social infrastructure to protect the vulnerable. 

 

What on earth are you talking about???? Up to now, Brazil has had 4.4 million covid cases and 135,000 deaths - only the USA has reported higher figures - and they are likely to actually be much. much higher due to insufficient testing/reporting. 

 

This forum utterly astonishes me. Is this really a microcosm of public awareness? 

Deaths per million are below Spain and falling everyday.

 

Numbers mean nothing without context and I deliberately compared Brazil with Peru as they both have poverty and poorly accessible healthcare.

 

Christmas in Brazil will be better than the UK this year!

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12 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

Quite mental to see the younger generations being blamed when the over 40s struggle to keep a mask over their noses 

It’s cos wearing them makes our glasses steam up :rolleyes:

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The problem with Vallance and Whitty is this.  They've long tried to keep the politics out of the science and in the daily briefings made this very clear.  The situation involving Cummings was dealt with very swiftly by Whitty at the time for example and he distanced himself from the politics of it all.

 

However, the longer this goes on, particularly having listened to what they had to say today, the more and more it feels politically driven.  Unfortunately, this will green light Boris tomorrow to do what he likes.  

 

Vallance "This is not a prediction..." and then he goes on to predict using a factor of 2 what could happen!  May as well have been Hancock delivering the slides!

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6 minutes ago, Corky said:

Most of the people interviewed when waiting for tests on the news that I've seen were there because their school age child/ grandchild had symptoms.

Admittedly anecdotal, but the few people at work with the same issued were all negative for covid after testing. 

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