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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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SpacedX

SpacedX

Posted
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Posted
2 minutes ago, simFox said:

Deaths per million are below Spain and falling everyday.

 

As I explained, Brazil is beyond doubt hugely underreporting their fatalities whilst unlike Spain, the testing programmes are woefully inadequate. 

 

5 minutes ago, simFox said:

Numbers mean nothing without context 

See the above.

 

6 minutes ago, simFox said:

I deliberately compared Brazil with Peru as they both have poverty and poorly accessible healthcare.

 

Rubbish - you were simply cherry picking based upon your own preconceptions and personal incredulity.

 

As I explained, healthcare provision in Peru is far inferior to that of Brazil and were far less prepared - but of huge significance is the fact that to reiterate, Peru has a weak social contract in comparison.

 

9 minutes ago, simFox said:

Christmas in Brazil will be better than the UK this year!

Then I suggest that you take yourself there. 

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StanSP

StanSP

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4 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The problem with Vallance and Whitty is this.  They've long tried to keep the politics out of the science and in the daily briefings made this very clear.  The situation involving Cummings was dealt with very swiftly by Whitty at the time for example and he distanced himself from the politics of it all.

 

However, the longer this goes on, particularly having listened to what they had to say today, the more and more it feels politically driven.  Unfortunately, this will green light Boris tomorrow to do what he likes.  

 

Vallance "This is not a prediction..." and then he goes on to predict using a factor of 2 what could happen!  May as well have been Hancock delivering the slides!

I like that the politics was taken out of today's briefing though. Unlike where we saw 2 scientists and Johnson/a minister fronting the briefing, all the proper info/science we needed to hear was sandwiched between those shite questions we had to endure and standard rhetoric we're used to seeing in the Commons. 

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simFox

simFox

Posted
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27 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

What? No, it stopped thousands of deaths and other unneeded deaths from over clogging the NHS. 

 

Brazil and Peru I assume has the same level of testing and quality of predictions as the UK? You can't just throw out any comparison between nations with hugely different variables. 

Someone just posted Carl Heneghan on sky news, maybe watch watch that and learn something.

 

Brazil and Peru are comparable as they have similar socio-economic, climates, continent, demographics etc.

 

If you want to compare the UK, look at Sweden and as someone else said, what's happening in Italy.

 

Compare lockdown States in the US and see how they've fared.

 

Where are the thousands of deaths in the UK at the moment... I'll give you a clue, it's not covid.

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simFox

simFox

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Line-X said:

As I explained, Brazil is beyond doubt hugely underreporting their fatalities whilst unlike Spain, the testing programmes are woefully inadequate. 

 

See the above.

 

Rubbish - you were simply cherry picking based upon your own preconceptions and personal incredulity.

 

As I explained, healthcare provision in Peru is far inferior to that of Brazil and were far less prepared - but of huge significance is the fact that to reiterate, Peru has a weak social contract in comparison.

 

Then I suggest that you take yourself there. 

 

Stand back everyone, multiquote has been deployed. 🤦‍♂️

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UniFox21

UniFox21

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, simFox said:

Someone just posted Carl Heneghan on sky news, maybe watch watch that and learn something.

 

Brazil and Peru are comparable as they have similar socio-economic, climates, continent, demographics etc.

 

If you want to compare the UK, look at Sweden and as someone else said, what's happening in Italy.

 

Compare lockdown States in the US and see how they've fared.

 

Where are the thousands of deaths in the UK at the moment... I'll give you a clue, it's not covid.

And just as with his points, they have good counter points made by other scientists.

 

Brazil and Peru are comparable with one another yes, but implying conclusions relating to our own situation from them isn't worth much. America is an interesting one, haven't seen exact figures however. Compare Spain and France with us, who arguably were stricter. Sweden have a cultural difference where social distancing is the norm. No simple comparisons will give a true comparison on what is or isn't the best method. 

 

Honestly, some posts you've written in the past on this topic have been well constructed and added to discussion. But you're becoming patronising af with posters raising good points. If you're just going to do that, clear off to another thread and let people actually have a discussion. 

Edited by UniFox21
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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

Posted
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22 minutes ago, simFox said:

Someone just posted Carl Heneghan on sky news, maybe watch watch that and learn something.

 

Brazil and Peru are comparable as they have similar socio-economic, climates, continent, demographics etc.

 

If you want to compare the UK, look at Sweden and as someone else said, what's happening in Italy.

 

Compare lockdown States in the US and see how they've fared.

 

Where are the thousands of deaths in the UK at the moment... I'll give you a clue, it's not covid.

 

Why do you compare the UK to Sweden and not Sweden to Norway/Finland. I mean based on your utter nonsense acomparing Peru and Brazil based on them being next to each and having some poverty, then it should be Sweden and Norway based on the fact they're next door to each other and have some rich people.

 

Of course you wouldn't because your argument consists of specifically chosen data points without, ironic given you've just lectured someone else on it, any attempt at sophisticated contextualisation. Correlation ≠ causation and so until you build a complex model controlling for all relevant variables, you're chatting out of your derriere. 

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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted

I feel like the government dont want to say schools reopening has caused an increase in case it gets wrongly misconstrued as anti family, basically pissing off most of their voters.

 

Much easier to blame young adult who go out, they dont pose as much of a threat at the polling stations since they are more likely to vote Labour or LibDem.

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Ashley

Ashley

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Meanwhile, 11 deaths and 4368 cases today.

 

7th September (2 weeks ago) we had 2948 cases, people kept saying give it two weeks and the deaths will rapidly jump up, but they don't seem to be doing that, and they haven't for a long time.

How many of those deaths were back dated? Does anyone know?

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st albans fox

st albans fox

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21 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Meanwhile, 11 deaths and 4368 cases today.

 

7th September (2 weeks ago) we had 2948 cases, people kept saying give it two weeks and the deaths will rapidly jump up, but they don't seem to be doing that, and they haven't for a long time.

I’m not sure who said a coupe, of weeks for deaths to rise .... the cases have mostly been amongst the younger generations.....leave it two to four weeks for that to transfer up the generations and two to four weeks beyond that for deaths to noticeably rise. 
 

I suggest that means mid October to end October although that will also mean a noticeable rise in hospital admissions through the first half October. 
 

and the point about cases not doubling every seven days on the official figures may have something to do with the fact that many of the available tests are being used up on those who just have a cold plus the fact that there are less tests being carried out compared with 10/14 days ago ....perhaps the govt are making some assumptions on what the numbers should be 

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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

The problem with Vallance and Whitty is this.  They've long tried to keep the politics out of the science and in the daily briefings made this very clear.  The situation involving Cummings was dealt with very swiftly by Whitty at the time for example and he distanced himself from the politics of it all.

 

However, the longer this goes on, particularly having listened to what they had to say today, the more and more it feels politically driven.  Unfortunately, this will green light Boris tomorrow to do what he likes.  

 

Vallance "This is not a prediction..." and then he goes on to predict using a factor of 2 what could happen!  May as well have been Hancock delivering the slides!

Disagree personally - tonight they have released a statement to say its Level 4. Up to the government how to deal with it now. 

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Start looking for new work.  The services industry is crumbling so if I were you I wouldn't assume that role is in any way secure.

Political advisors,seem Good opportunities,at least you can get out & travel where you want...

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CosbehFox

CosbehFox

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, String fellow said:

Earlier this year, we were told that Italy was suffering badly, due to its high proportion of older people and because of extended families living together. However, fast forward six months, and Italy is showing few signs of a second wave, whilst in Spain, France and the UK, cases are rocketing back up. What's Italy doing right that the other three are doing wrong?  

Two thoughts - neither I have evidence before 

 

The horror which they suffered back early this year has ensured strong social distancing. 
 

Or it’s a nation where the city population go out to the coast or holiday homes, therefore density is lower. People effectively creating family bubbles 

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yorkie1999

yorkie1999

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Meanwhile, 11 deaths and 4368 cases today.

 

7th September (2 weeks ago) we had 2948 cases, people kept saying give it two weeks and the deaths will rapidly jump up, but they don't seem to be doing that, and they haven't for a long time.

It looks more like the amount of cases are fluctuating due to testing problems they are having.

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Corky

Corky

Posted
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29 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

It looks more like the amount of cases are fluctuating due to testing problems they are having.

Which is also going to cause problems further down the line if there is a drop in cases, people see it and are then told the testing has issues.

 

People need things to cling to, restrictions are almost seen as a trade-off for something better in the future.

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