Coronavirus Thread

[FoxesDeb]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

agree - there was a maths professor on the radio yesterday who said some models were showing a decent level of herd immunity kicking in at 20/25% 
 

And we are yet to see if mask wearing reduces viral load and severity of illness .....of course many people aren’t wearing masks in any case

 

 

my eldest daughter (who originally brought the virus into the house in March ) has now been in close contact with someone who is positive (her bestie who she works with in the NHS). As such she is being tested (pillar one). would expect a negative result for obvious reasons but she is a bit off colour and my youngest has had a dodgy tummy on and off this week...... anyway, if anyone in the house tests positive we’ll be in the news as no way would anyone here not have contracted it late March .....

 

I’d be v shocked and pretty concerned that re infection had occurred .....
 

How are you and yours getting on with the after effects? I know you said a while ago one of your children still couldn't really taste anything?

[yorkie1999]

One graph i would like to see but can't find anywhere, would be positive cases to deaths over the last 8 months or so, just to see if the death toll is aligned to positive cases in the same respect as it was to earlier in the year. This is the true marker of where we actually are regarding our effectiveness at treating people as well as knowing if the virus is getting less or more  deadly. 

[yorkie1999]

16 minutes ago, bovril said:

If a cringey Leicester City fan account on twitter hasn't referred to CCFC as CoVIDtry City yet I will be disappointed. 

You'll never sing that! There's a chant in there somewhere.

[Stivo]

16 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

agree - there was a maths professor on the radio yesterday who said some models were showing a decent level of herd immunity kicking in at 20/25% 
 

And we are yet to see if mask wearing reduces viral load and severity of illness .....of course many people aren’t wearing masks in any case

 

 

my eldest daughter (who originally brought the virus into the house in March ) has now been in close contact with someone who is positive (her bestie who she works with in the NHS). As such she is being tested (pillar one). would expect a negative result for obvious reasons but she is a bit off colour and my youngest has had a dodgy tummy on and off this week...... anyway, if anyone in the house tests positive we’ll be in the news as no way would anyone here not have contracted it late March .....

 

I’d be v shocked and pretty concerned that re infection had occurred .....
 

I have wondered whether the current Europe wide surge is because Immunity from the previous peak is fading away and we are falling below some herd immunity level.  But then wouldn’t the current surge then  be in London first??

[st albans fox]

31 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

How are you and yours getting on with the after effects? I know you said a while ago one of your children still couldn't really taste anything?

nothing changing v quickly 

missus still fatigued from time to time for no obvious reason 

 

eldest still on a fish and pasta diet cos everything else smells of sewage .... I watched him eating last weekend ....wierdly, as you get older, watching your kids eat heartily is one of life’s small pleasures ....it was actually quite distressing to watch him eating and you could see that every mouthful was such hard work ...
 

 

[Nod.E]

7 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

It's not semantics, it's being able to understand the story that the data is actually telling me instead of what I want it to be telling me.

 

So you've gone from stating that the true Covid-caused deaths is likely much lower than the raw figure to citing that only 70% of deaths in an 8 week period were caused by Covid. 

 

You did your Trumpian fake news spiel without producing a shred evidence yesterday. Today your musings have ended up with you producing evidence that what you say is nonsense. Progress.

By the way, it was semantics.

 

It's the office for national statistics. They model. While it may not be 100% accurate, do you think they're putting those asymptomatic findings out there if they don't think they're somewhat representative?

Edited 9 October 2020 by Nod.E

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

By the way, it was semantics.

 

It's the office for national statistics. They model. While it may not be 100% accurate, do you think they're putting those asymptomatic findings out there if they don't think they're somewhat representative?

Aye I get that it was a bit pedantic. But again, to be pedantic, it wasn't the ONS that commented on it, it was UCL researchers using the ONS study. These were raw, not modelled ONS figures. And whilst the ONS study used a representative 36000 to understand prevalence in the wider community, the UCL analysis of that looks at 115 positive results which just isn't a big enough sample size to say anything of any confidence about the proportion of asymptomatic cases. 

 

The point that there's a significant chunk of asymptomatic cases (the US aircraft carrier showed 20%, a big study in Spain gives a range up to 35%), fair enough that much seems to be true. But to say an ONS study showed 86.1% of cases to be asymptomatic is a stretch, given a)the ONS didn't give the analysis b) the n isn't really big enough and c)that the 86.1% referred only to the 3 core symptoms on the day of testing.

 

For reference on this, 

 

 

Tbh the most interesting bit that the figures highlighted was that 10% of those reporting symptoms tested positive. Given that to have a test, you're supposed to have symptoms, that means that even with a very very generous FPR of 1%, then actually 94% of cases are true positives. Still based on a small n though.

Edited 9 October 2020 by Kopfkino

[UpTheLeagueFox]

All the figures can be interpreted in different ways and people quote them to suit their own agendas.

Scientists disagree on the virus, use of masks, how to deal with it etc.

We and the rest of the world haven't got a chance because there's no perfect solution.

Someone somewhere might stumble on something to try and balance the saving lives/saving the economy question.

We're all fumbling in the dark effectively.

 

Good luck everyone!

[Guest Fktf]

8 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I see the figures are all doom and gloom again today.

 

Wearing masks therefore must surely be deemed as ineffective?  

 

Scientific studies of the past 40 years back this up.  Top scientists who are not mainstream will gladly point out the research.

 

Further lockdowns will also prove ineffective, as current lockdown measures have failed to stop the rises.

 

Whether or not these cases are actual cases or old cases or false, who knows, the govt will turn a blind eye to it.

 

You cannot stop seasonal increases in respiratory viruses.  The previous lockdown coincided with the seasonal drop, hence the decrease in cases.

 

Rather than build immunity at a time of low risk, the outcomes are now likely to be worse.

 

Doubling down on a lockdown is going to upset a lot of people.  In hindsight, restrictions should have been lifted in May imo and then reintroduced if necessary.

Lots of very black and white thinking here. If only it was so easy.

 

Has anyone ever claimed wearing masks would be the magic bullet to stop the virus spreading?

 

Has anyone ever claimed lockdowns will completely halt transmission?

 

No. And no. But they might just limit the spread, which might just keep the nhs free enough to treat people with cancer, heart disease, stroke..

[Legend_in_blue]

 

More good analysis.  Could do with one for the UK and post it to Bojo.

 

[leicsmac]

22 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

More good analysis.  Could do with one for the UK and post it to Bojo.

 

Better to show him this one if he really wants to keep as many businesses as possible open and cases/deaths down at the same time, which Sweden didn't quite manage:

 

 

[Guest Harrydc]

What's really annoying me is how many people are blaming the students in Nottingham. 

 

It's funny, because if they don't get tested then it's really not an issue, because no one is dying FROM (not with ) Coronavirus in Nottingham. So, I'll say it again, more tests mean more positive cases. It's not difficult to comprehend. People are so fearful of each other, policing each other and I don't like the road were going down. Covid doesnt scare me, but the world we are living in does. 

Edited 10 October 2020 by Harrydc

[Corky]

The universities going back was always going to see an increase- an age group that are very sociable and interactive living together, sharing stuff in accommodation having been brought in from different areas of the country. It took an absolute age for the Government to allow different households to meet indoors, now you're expecting lots to live together.

 

Schools, universities, the changing weather, people's lifestyles altering- all are factors. The increase in testing is a huge part of the rise too (given the amount who have tested positive having been asymptomatic, it puts Hancock's pathetic blaming of the demand for getting tests when not showing symptoms being the main issue with the hold-ups into sharp focus).  

[Kopfkino]

16 minutes ago, Corky said:

The universities going back was always going to see an increase- an age group that are very sociable and interactive living together, sharing stuff in accommodation having been brought in from different areas of the country. It took an absolute age for the Government to allow different households to meet indoors, now you're expecting lots to live together.

 

Schools, universities, the changing weather, people's lifestyles altering- all are factors. The increase in testing is a huge part of the rise too (given the amount who have tested positive having been asymptomatic, it puts Hancock's pathetic blaming of the demand for getting tests when not showing symptoms being the main issue with the hold-ups into sharp focus).  

Except it isn't. The ONS's most recent Infection Survey, which remains constant and is widely considered as the best measure, puts weekly infection rates at 0.41% of the population for 25th September to 1st October which is 3.7x what it was for the week 4-10 September. In that time, the official weekly case count is ~3x higher. So actually, the official testing figures are underselling the rise.

 

They also don't sample student accommodation, care homes, and hospitals. I presume they model for it though. 

[st albans fox]

Nottingham has the largest number of cases per 100k and no special measures introduced as an emergency 

 

one can only assume that the authorities know it’s mainly in the student population and that doesn’t bother them whilst they stay on campus and mixing with themselves. I assume that the message to the students is not to go home and visit their families whilst it’s spreading so widely within their social circle 

 

 

[Heathrow fox]

Counting the days until face masks are made compulsory outdoors.

[MonmoreStef]

35 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said:

Counting the days until face masks are made compulsory outdoors.

Seen somewhere this is a rule. Going to make my morning run a tad more difficult for sure. 

[kyleolly]

30 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Seen somewhere this is a rule. Going to make my morning run a tad more difficult for sure. 

Italy

[Heathrow fox]

33 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

Seen somewhere this is a rule. Going to make my morning run a tad more difficult for sure. 

I think Spain has this aswell

[MonmoreStef]

I’m sure a also read that something like only 1.5% of cases were caught outdoors. 

[SpacedX]

 

[Guest Harrydc]

The day face masks are compulsory outdoors is the day I no longer want to live in this country. Psychotic control freaks running this country. 

[FoxesDeb]

32 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

The day face masks are compulsory outdoors is the day I no longer want to live in this country. Psychotic control freaks running this country. 

You do realise that wearing masks outdoors is compulsory in many other countries already? Do they all have psychotic control freaks running them too? Which country are you thinking of going to? I suggest you look up their rules first as you might find yourself quite limited in your choice 

[UniFox21]

1 hour ago, Harrydc said:

The day face masks are compulsory outdoors is the day I no longer want to live in this country. Psychotic control freaks running this country. 

I love it.

We have people who want us to learn to live with the virus and get back to some normal. This is likely a necessary evil to achieving that. People either accept the new rules and changes to be able to have that bit of normality or we end up back in a lockdown. 

[CosbehFox]

Even me generally supportive of some form in restrictions funds a mask outdoors a step too far.