Coronavirus Thread

[Angus Scott]

28 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

 

I don't understand why we would require restrictions next winter if everyone (or the majority) has been vaccinated.. Is this life now??? 

I doubt that there will be crowds at football at the start of next season

[whoareyaaa]

33 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

Matt Hancock also saying today that we're a 'long long way off' easing restrictions. You'd imagine with this 'world beating' vaccine we'd be closer than ever to not just easing restrictions, but completely ending them. 

must be some kind of hidden agenda going on 

[DennisNedry]

4 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

 

I don't understand why we would require restrictions next winter if everyone (or the majority) has been vaccinated.. Is this life now??? 

If all adults are vaccinated by Autumn, and at around the same time a tweaked (to account for new variants) vaccine is rolled out to the vulnerable groups currently being vaccinated in time for winter, then you're right. I just fear that if there's a uptick in cases next winter, even if it's just comparable to normal flu season levels, they'll be voices clamouring for lockdowns again. 

[Pliskin]

1 hour ago, Harrydc said:

 

I don't understand why we would require restrictions next winter if everyone (or the majority) has been vaccinated.. Is this life now??? 

Because the virus won’t be gone.... they can’t just leap back into normality, even though the vaccine unfortunately. There’s too big a risk. Basically normality can’t resume until the reason for the infection rate being below 1 is the virus. We just need to be careful that we don’t allow new variants to mutate and potentially take hold again. 
 

I don’t think we will full be back to normal until 2022 in all honesty. The rest of this year there will be some form of restriction in place. 
 

To put it into context, I don’t think the KP will be full until mid 2021, potentially 2022. This virus has shown how quickly it can spread given the chance, and no chances can be taken until the vaccine has diminished it to almost nothing, almost like the flu. 

[Dunge]

37 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

If all adults are vaccinated by Autumn, and at around the same time a tweaked (to account for new variants) vaccine is rolled out to the vulnerable groups currently being vaccinated in time for winter, then you're right. I just fear that if there's a uptick in cases next winter, even if it's just comparable to normal flu season levels, they'll be voices clamouring for lockdowns again. 

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? I think the politicians are avoiding that question for now, and for good reason - their focus is on securing answers at all before worrying about scale.

 

Ultimately, you can project deaths and NHS capacity depending on calculated R rates each year, and then some degree of restrictions - not necessarily anything like lockdown, but maybe enforcing mask use on public transport for example - may be considered a tangible solution to keep any R rate to manageable bounds.

 

But there will be a lot of voices out there that will shout against lockdown or restrictions next winter, and my guess is that it’s likely some will be recommended. But I don’t think the answer will be either/or. I think it’ll be about finding a balance.

 

Would people consider any restrictions to be too much? Even if it’s just masks on public transport or social distancing in restaurants? How about quarantining returnees from abroad, or active test and trace isolation? Is anything too much, even if it means a depleted NHS capacity for other things?

[Lcfc82]

11 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? I think the politicians are avoiding that question for now, and for good reason - their focus is on securing answers at all before worrying about scale.

 

Ultimately, you can project deaths and NHS capacity depending on calculated R rates each year, and then some degree of restrictions - not necessarily anything like lockdown, but maybe enforcing mask use on public transport for example - may be considered a tangible solution to keep any R rate to manageable bounds.

 

But there will be a lot of voices out there that will shout against lockdown or restrictions next winter, and my guess is that it’s likely some will be recommended. But I don’t think the answer will be either/or. I think it’ll be about finding a balance.

 

Would people consider any restrictions to be too much? Even if it’s just masks on public transport or social distancing in restaurants? How about quarantining returnees from abroad, or active test and trace isolation? Is anything too much, even if it means a depleted NHS capacity for other things?

For me any type of restrictions next winter would be too much. If there are restrictions next winter then the vaccines aren’t effective enough.

Covid will be here forever in some form and my fear would be if there’s still restrictions this time next year then we will always be living under some form of restrictions.

[Dunge]

4 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

For me any type of restrictions next winter would be too much. If there are restrictions next winter then the vaccines aren’t effective enough.

Covid will be here forever in some form and my fear would be if there’s still restrictions this time next year then we will always be living under some form of restrictions.

Even if it’s just masks on public transport and quarantining new arrivals, for example? Accepting that vaccines do the big majority of the heavy lifting but some smaller restrictions during winter months save circa 20k lives? (Plucking a number out of the air.)

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong necessarily, just that I think this ends up in grey areas.

[Rain King]

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

[foxile5]

1 minute ago, Rain King said:

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

They're doing the best they can. Look at his funny hair. Cronyism what's that? Etc etc. 

[Rain King]

1 minute ago, Rain King said:

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

Just to add I haven't got it and we've seen the next door neighbours on both sides going out and about today.

[Dr The Singh]

2 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

What about all the men in the back garden?

[Lcfc82]

2 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Even if it’s just masks on public transport and quarantining new arrivals, for example? Accepting that vaccines do the big majority of the heavy lifting but some smaller restrictions during winter months save circa 20k lives? (Plucking a number out of the air.)

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong necessarily, just that I think this ends up in grey areas.

Possibly quarantining new arrivals if coming from somewhere with a high rate or a new variation of the virus has been found but that’s it. 
The vaccine should reduce hospital omissions enough to allow us to go about or normal lives, unless I’m missing something ?

[Mike Oxlong]

5 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

Have you looked in the wardrobe ? 

[Carl the Llama]

6 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Mrs just had a notification from the app advising she's been in close contact with someone who has Covid. She hasn't been out of the house for 10 days other than in the back garden 🙄

Who's back garden? 

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Just to add I haven't got it and we've seen the next door neighbours on both sides going out and about today.

A friend had this and they realised it was because their neighbours had tested positive, they were told to self isolate by the app even though they hadn't left the house in like a week.

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/anger-covidiot-dancers-defy-lockdown-4924006

 

There's a bloody police station next to this park ffs.

Edited 24 January 2021 by Leicester_Loyal

[Rain King]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

A friend had this and they realised it was because their neighbours had tested positive, they were told to self isolate by the app even though they hadn't left the house in like a week.

I get that but we saw the couple one side going out walking with their Grandkids (allowed?) at lunch and the couple on the other side going out walking their dog.

[Leicester_Loyal]

13 minutes ago, Rain King said:

I get that but we saw the couple one side going out walking with their Grandkids (allowed?) at lunch and the couple on the other side going out walking their dog.

Maybe they're not isolating or maybe it's an accident, you'll probably never know tbh.

[Jattdogg]

22 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

What about all the men in the back garden?

For what its worth,  it's a lovely back garden.

[Lionator]

2 hours ago, Harrydc said:

Matt Hancock also saying today that we're a 'long long way off' easing restrictions. You'd imagine with this 'world beating' vaccine we'd be closer than ever to not just easing restrictions, but completely ending them. 

I think, what they've learnt from the half arsed lockdown in November is that if you give people an inch then they'll take a mile. Once it became clear that the lockdown would end on December 2nd, people stopped complying and it helped cases to go up. They're not going to give any definitive dates. If we're being honest then it's going to be March/April when the first restrictions are dropped and month by month we'll hopefully see less and less restrictions until we're back to normal. 

 

Unless something drastic happens then we wont be back in major restrictions ever again due to covid, however if there's a surge in cases next winter for any reason (there shouldn't be but you can't predict these things to the letter) then they may reintroduce mask wearing and social distancing. It's 95%-99% likely that this will be the last lockdown. 

[Dunge]

22 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

Possibly quarantining new arrivals if coming from somewhere with a high rate or a new variation of the virus has been found but that’s it. 
The vaccine should reduce hospital omissions enough to allow us to go about or normal lives, unless I’m missing something ?

Hopefully, yes. There are possibilities such as new variants of the virus that could (could) make the vaccines less effective, or require an update to vaccines that would again take time, money and effort to roll out again. That’s not to say that vaccines would stop working entirely, more that it’s feasible a variant comes along that lowers an existing vaccine’s efficacy, meaning that variant’s R number could creep above 1 and require a few restrictions to push it back below 1 again.

 

It’s all coulds and mights of course, but my guess would be that we could well have to answer this question in some form. And it won’t mean we or vaccines have failed if we do.

[ealingfox]

There will always be excuses to stay locked down longer. It comes to a point where we are going to have to say no.

[Otis]

1 hour ago, Dunge said:

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? I think the politicians are avoiding that question for now, and for good reason - their focus is on securing answers at all before worrying about scale.

 

Ultimately, you can project deaths and NHS capacity depending on calculated R rates each year, and then some degree of restrictions - not necessarily anything like lockdown, but maybe enforcing mask use on public transport for example - may be considered a tangible solution to keep any R rate to manageable bounds.

 

But there will be a lot of voices out there that will shout against lockdown or restrictions next winter, and my guess is that it’s likely some will be recommended. But I don’t think the answer will be either/or. I think it’ll be about finding a balance.

 

Would people consider any restrictions to be too much? Even if it’s just masks on public transport or social distancing in restaurants? How about quarantining returnees from abroad, or active test and trace isolation? Is anything too much, even if it means a depleted NHS capacity for other things?

This...

 

There are 78,000 smoking related deaths per year that is obviously acceptable. Otherwise smoking would be banned.

By mid Feb if all the over 80s and most at risk are vaccinated then the death rate will fall massively. To 10-15% of what it is now. This is surely acceptable.

With on going vaccinations and warmer months approaching this level with rapidly fall.

 

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, Dunge said:

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? 

Yes, certainly.  If you were told that we expected 600,000 people to die next year but because of a bad flu season it's going to be 620,000, would you think that stopping indoors for 6 months, closing all the schools, and bankrupting the country was a fair and reasonable response?

 

If there was a practical chance that the government could confer immortality for us all, then fair enough.  If the best they can do is increase average life expectancy by 8 hours, then no.

[Dunge]

2 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Yes, certainly.  If you were told that we expected 600,000 people to die next year but because of a bad flu season it's going to be 620,000, would you think that stopping indoors for 6 months, closing all the schools, and bankrupting the country was a fair and reasonable response?

 

If there was a practical chance that the government could confer immortality for us all, then fair enough.  If the best they can do is increase average life expectancy by 8 hours, then no.

I would not, of course. But that’s not the decision that may have to be made. The more relevant question I think is how many deaths, along with disruption to the NHS, instances of long Covid, etc. would be worth enforcing just masks on public transport, for instance. Not a full lockdown but some restrictions. And if so, to what degree? That’s ultimately the question I think might need answering, not a black & white “Lockdown or No Lockdown”.