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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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I don't think we should necessarily panic if we don't get maximum points from the next three. In fact were probably likely to cock up in at least one. 

 

We're perfectly capable of getting points off Man Utd, Chelsea and Spurs. A lot might depend on what they're playing for when we meet. Man Utd, for example, may have no mathematical chance of the league by then, but already secured top four. 

 

Of course it would be much easier if we do just win the next three. I can't see us not getting CL if we do. 

Edited by Jobyfox
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19 hours ago, reynard said:

I agree. Really need 3rd place as 4th might not be enough this year. I think Liverpool will  all their remaining matches.

 

4 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

People have been saying this about Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool for 6 weeks nowlol Highly unlikely, they'll drop 2 or 3 points at some point.

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57 minutes ago, jeffschlupp said:

I don't fear Chelsea. I've seen them a lot under Tuchel and they have gone back to typical Mourinho/Conte Chelsea - get jammy results by boring the opposition to tears. They are nothing without Kante and even with him I think they lack balance right the way through the team. If we play as well as we can do we beat them

When I mean I fear them, I mean I fear them the most out of them, Man Utd and Spurs. I think they’ve got the more complete squad and the most competent coach out of the 3. I still fancy us to get something but I think their game will be the most difficult.

Edited by Fox in the North
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So 72 points guarantees it - so 13 points needed as an absolute maximum. 
 

So 4 wins and 1 draw from 6. Although unlikely that both Chelsea and West Ham win all their games. Still looks like 68 might be enough.
 

Hoping for at least 7 points from the next 3 games would put us in a really strong position going into the last 3. But even if we don’t manage that we still have a shot as others have pointed we have already beaten all of those super duper league teams this year. Keep the faith

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11 minutes ago, Foxes96 said:

So 72 points guarantees it - so 13 points needed as an absolute maximum. 
 

So 4 wins and 1 draw from 6. Although unlikely that both Chelsea and West Ham win all their games. Still looks like 68 might be enough.
 

Hoping for at least 7 points from the next 3 games would put us in a really strong position going into the last 3. But even if we don’t manage that we still have a shot as others have pointed we have already beaten all of those super duper league teams this year. Keep the faith


Chelsea and West Ham can’t both win all their games - they play each other today.

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1 minute ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

Is it just me, or are our competitors making a bit of a horlicks of it?

 

 

We were up until we won last week. Things always look better after a win, and worse after a loss. The reality is as was predicted 68/69 points will most likely do it as has been the case for a while. We need to keep winning games - the next 3 are vital.

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3 minutes ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

So 70 points would guarantee it - 4 wins out of the last 6.

I'm tired today so forgive my brain not working if this is obvious, but are we better off if Chelsea and West Ham draw or one of them win?

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25 minutes ago, Foxes96 said:

So 72 points guarantees it - so 13 points needed as an absolute maximum. 
 

So 4 wins and 1 draw from 6. Although unlikely that both Chelsea and West Ham win all their games. Still looks like 68 might be enough.
 

Hoping for at least 7 points from the next 3 games would put us in a really strong position going into the last 3. But even if we don’t manage that we still have a shot as others have pointed we have already beaten all of those super duper league teams this year. Keep the faith

If Chelsea beat West Ham 70 points should be enough as our gd is 10 better than WH. 

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3 minutes ago, Gravel said:

I'm tired today so forgive my brain not working if this is obvious, but are we better off if Chelsea and West Ham draw or one of them win?

Better for Chelsea to win. WHU can then only get max of 70 points meaning that we only need 11 points as our gd is 10 better than them. 

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Liverpool now can only get 69 and if they fail to win at Old Trafford then it’s very likely 67 for Liverpool at best and that’s only if they win the other 4.

West Ham have lots of key injuries and the next 3 games they have are all tricky types, they would do well to get more than 11 points out of them I think. Can’t see West Ham getting more than 66. So effectively that rules them out as our gd is far superior. If we don’t even get 66 from here we’ve well and truly ballsed it up anyways.

 

Truth is really that 68 would nearly always be enough from the situation were in now and even 66-67 would have a very decent chance.

 

We are now in a fantastic position and odds in favourite to get it now. If we throw it away from here we’ll never do it!

We play both Palace then Southampton before any of our rivals play again, if we win them both we’ve all but done it!

Palace and Southampton are probably other than Sheffield Utd , the 2 absolute best fixtures you could ask for - low quality really and nothing to play for. Newcastle will be trickier than these 2 so really this is our moment.
4 points will be acceptable and give us a chance to lock it vs Newcastle but just 2 wins in a row and it’s as good as done.

If we don’t do it from here then it’s even worse than last season.

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12 minutes ago, deanolegend1989 said:

Liverpool now can only get 69 and if they fail to win at Old Trafford then it’s very likely 67 for Liverpool at best and that’s only if they win the other 4.

West Ham have lots of key injuries and the next 3 games they have are all tricky types, they would do well to get more than 11 points out of them I think. Can’t see West Ham getting more than 66. So effectively that rules them out as our gd is far superior. If we don’t even get 66 from here we’ve well and truly ballsed it up anyways.

 

Truth is really that 68 would nearly always be enough from the situation were in now and even 66-67 would have a very decent chance.

 

We are now in a fantastic position and odds in favourite to get it now. If we throw it away from here we’ll never do it!

We play both Palace then Southampton before any of our rivals play again, if we win them both we’ve all but done it!

Palace and Southampton are probably other than Sheffield Utd , the 2 absolute best fixtures you could ask for - low quality really and nothing to play for. Newcastle will be trickier than these 2 so really this is our moment.
4 points will be acceptable and give us a chance to lock it vs Newcastle but just 2 wins in a row and it’s as good as done.

If we don’t do it from here then it’s even worse than last season.

 

At three points a game they'd be doing more than very well.

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Injuries and suspensions will take their toll on West Ham now and can see them dropping points in at least 2 of their 5 games and finishing on 65 points. Liverpool will drop points against Man Utd and finish on 67 tops

 

We will get 7 from the next 3, needing 2 from the last 3 and think we will get 4-5 from those games to finish on 70-71 points 

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