2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Mythyaar]

19 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

That's correct.

 

I was only talking about Chelsea winning ot not winning the CL and that not changing anything in isolation.

 

The only issue is the as you point out is the doomsday scenario of an Chelsea and Arsenal both winning there respective competitions and Chelsea finishing outside the top 4.

 

All of which is very unlikely. 

 

 

 

Yes, it's a 20/1 shot so extremely unlikely

[Finnaldo]

Still think we have enough to do it. Nowhere near as fraught as last season and we still have the initiative. Just need to see some repentance by some of the recent villains in form of the determination and drive, they’re the players that can make the difference in a game.

[FoxOnWheels]

1 hour ago, Bert said:

Just round the corner from me, great place! 

Agree love taking the little one, impressed to see Youri there enjoying the local things

[Bats8711]

7 hours ago, Mythyaar said:

Yes, it's a 20/1 shot so extremely unlikely

Was texting with a friend who's an Arsenal fan yesterday and we actually worked it out to .63% - 1.06% chance.  Which honestly is lower than I "feel" it is, but it goes to show that it is unlikely.  Showing my work:

 

Chelsea CL (20-25%)

Leicester 4th (23-25%)

Arsenal EL (25-30%)

Chelsea No Top 4 (55-57%)

 

The league position %s for Leicester & Chelsea are taken from five thirty eight and another model that @UpTheLeagueFox posted previously ITT (Stats Perform).  For Chelsea CL / Arsenal EL - strictly from a statistical point of view they both have a 25% chance of winning. 

 

For Chelsea, I don’t see any reason to put them as much of underdogs against Real.  They would definitely be underdogs against PSG or Man City - but It’s one game and a final.  To me I’m more apt to tilt things towards 50/50 coin flip in finals.  For Arsenal, they are favorites in SF I'd think.  Then one game final against Roma / Ajax / Man Utd.  Again, you can argue they're favored or underdog depending on the opponent.  But it’s one game and a final and a CL spot would rest on it for them (which isn’t the case for any of the other teams right?).  So to me they are at least 25% while Chelsea is at most 25%.  But obviously each person is going to have their own odds on those things happening, which can be plugged into the formula.

 

but multiplying the percentages above out gives .63% - 1.06% chance.

[Mythyaar]

I was just going on best priced odds which would pretty cancel out the bookies "over round" or "take out" out from the book - to level it to 100%. So best price Chelsea is 9/2 and Arsenal 3s, which equates to 21/1.

 

Still extremely unlikely. But glad to see you're torturing yourself similarly!

 

And on that point, it is still statistically 250 times more likely than another footballing event that occurred in 2015/16 😄

 

 

[Bats8711]

I guess it's easy to say in retrospect, but 5000 to 1 odds for pretty much anything is outrageous.  I think they learned their lesson on that one.

 

Definitely torturing myself.  So if you're saying Arsenal + Chelsea to both win combined is 21/1, then the "book" odds for doomsday is .64%

[FoxOnWheels]

4 teams fighting for 2 spots now then

[Vardinio'sCat]

nice result for us

[Simmo86]

Can’t be putting Spurs at home in the same bracket as Utd away, Chelsea away.

 

They’ll have zero motivation, look absolutely shot.

[Leicester_Loyal]

24 minutes ago, Simmo86 said:

Can’t be putting Spurs at home in the same bracket as Utd away, Chelsea away.

 

They’ll have zero motivation, look absolutely shot.

100%. Been saying it for ages, no reason we can't expect 3-6 points from the final 3 games. It's the next 4 I'm worried about

[reynard]

Think we will need to win at least 5 of the remaining games to get top 4.

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, reynard said:

Think we will need to win at least 5 of the remaining games to get top 4.

I think 4 wins and a draw might just do it but it'll be very close. I'd much rather we win these next 4 league games and then know its fully in our hands.

[teblin]

4 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

I think 4 wins and a draw might just do it but it'll be very close. I'd much rather we win these next 4 league games and then know its fully in our hands.

I think we will get something from Chelsea and Utd away. But 100% agree if we can win the next 4 league games it puts us a brilliant position.

[Pliskin]

To stand any chance we have to win our next four games. West Ham will slip up, and I think Chelsea will beat them anyway. Liverpool are the team to watch, we have to keep winning and hope they slip up, forget Spurs and West Ham, Liverpool are shit housing their way up the table. They do play United though, and Chelsea play West Ham.... Chelsea have also got City too, and that is where we may benefit. 
 

Win our next four, and then take at least a point from United, Chelsea or Spurs we could be safe. Plus, Spurs could end up being a dead rubber, and with Kane being injured so close to the Euro’s, he might not even feature again this season! 
 

I think there’s still a chance, but we’ve got to win on Sunday to get some belief back, getting into an FA cup final could be the tonic to kick us up the arse and get a run going. 

Edited 17 April 2021 by Pliskin

[LanguedocFox]

10 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

To stand any chance we have to win our next four games. West Ham will slip up, and I think Chelsea will beat them anyway. Liverpool are the team to watch, we have to keep winning and hope they slip up, forget Spurs and West Ham, Liverpool are shit housing their way up the table. They do play United though, and Chelsea play West Ham.... Chelsea have also got City too, and that is where we may benefit. 
 

Win our next four, and then take at least a point from United, Chelsea or Spurs we could be safe. Plus, Spurs could end up being a dead rubber, and with Kane being injured so close to the Euro’s, he might not even feature again this season! 
 

I think there’s still a chance, but we’ve got to win on Sunday to get some belief back, getting into an FA cup final could be the tonic to kick us up the arse and get a run going. 

A sentence like that makes me realise just how far we’ve come during my lifetime. Time was when we’d do that kind of calculation every season, but back then we’d be safe from relegation. 

[coolhandfox]

18 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

To stand any chance we have to win our next four games. West Ham will slip up, and I think Chelsea will beat them anyway. Liverpool are the team to watch, we have to keep winning and hope they slip up, forget Spurs and West Ham, Liverpool are shit housing their way up the table. They do play United though, and Chelsea play West Ham.... Chelsea have also got City too, and that is where we may benefit. 
 

Win our next four, and then take at least a point from United, Chelsea or Spurs we could be safe. Plus, Spurs could end up being a dead rubber, and with Kane being injured so close to the Euro’s, he might not even feature again this season! 
 

I think there’s still a chance, but we’ve got to win on Sunday to get some belief back, getting into an FA cup final could be the tonic to kick us up the arse and get a run going. 

I think that the fans not the players, people seem to be forgetting before the last 2 games we had lost 2 in 16 in the league, winning 9, drawing 5.

 

 

[Ric Flair]

23 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

To stand any chance we have to win our next four games. West Ham will slip up, and I think Chelsea will beat them anyway. Liverpool are the team to watch, we have to keep winning and hope they slip up, forget Spurs and West Ham, Liverpool are shit housing their way up the table. They do play United though, and Chelsea play West Ham.... Chelsea have also got City too, and that is where we may benefit. 
 

Win our next four, and then take at least a point from United, Chelsea or Spurs we could be safe. Plus, Spurs could end up being a dead rubber, and with Kane being injured so close to the Euro’s, he might not even feature again this season! 
 

I think there’s still a chance, but we’ve got to win on Sunday to get some belief back, getting into an FA cup final could be the tonic to kick us up the arse and get a run going. 

Liverpool are at Elland Road on Monday night and I see that being a draw

[Cadno'r Cymoedd]

13 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Liverpool are at Elland Road on Monday night and I see that being a draw

I can see Leeds winning that

[Babylon]

It will be disappointing if we don’t get it again after being there all season. But this is what our aim has been, to be challenging  for top 6 spots and in with a chance of a cup final.

 

We should be delirious, it’s what we’ve dreamt of for this club, but this forum barely seems happy about it and seems focussed on any negatives.

 

What we are trying to do is exceptionally hard, many bigger clubs than us are and have failed to do it. I’m just going to try and enjoy the ride.

Edited 17 April 2021 by Babylon

[Pliskin]

40 minutes ago, Babylon said:

It will be disappointing if we don’t get it again after being there all season. But this is what our aim has been, to be challenging  for top 6 spots and in with a chance of a cup final.

 

We should be delirious, it’s what we’ve dreamt of for this club, but this forum barely seems happy about it and seems focussed on any negatives.

 

What we are trying to do is exceptionally hard, many bigger clubs than us are and have failed to do it. I’m just going to try and enjoy the ride.

I think if we were at the KP it would be much different.... instead of heading down to London for a two day session (despite the mrs dissatisfaction) ill be sat in my pants with a packet of Doritos and a can of brew dog.

 

The fact we’ve not been able to go this season has really impacted my football emotions. Some games I don’t even put on, because I just can’t be arsed.... I’ve had. ST since 97, and I don’t think I’ve even felt so distant from my team as I have over the last two seasons. Sounds sad, but I purposely drive out of my way to work the other day, just so I could drive past the KP. 
 

Im just ready to go back, I’m sick of seeing those empty blue seats, and it makes me sad that out semi could be hijacked by Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea fans....

 

If we can achieve at least a cup final and a CL place, next season will be a thing of beauty. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

7 hours ago, Babylon said:

It will be disappointing if we don’t get it again after being there all season. But this is what our aim has been, to be challenging  for top 6 spots and in with a chance of a cup final.

We should be delirious, it’s what we’ve dreamt of for this club, but this forum barely seems happy about it and seems focussed on any negatives.

What we are trying to do is exceptionally hard, many bigger clubs than us are and have failed to do it. I’m just going to try and enjoy the ride.

One day, when the football Gods are less kind to us, these will be just memories.

Rather than looking for the negatives, I think it's important to soak up the small moments right now.

Forget strong words like 'FAILURE' and 'BOTTLE' and similar stuff.

Focus - as Babylon said - on enjoying this amazing ride.

[Ric Flair]

8 hours ago, Pliskin said:

I think if we were at the KP it would be much different.... instead of heading down to London for a two day session (despite the mrs dissatisfaction) ill be sat in my pants with a packet of Doritos and a can of brew dog.

 

The fact we’ve not been able to go this season has really impacted my football emotions. Some games I don’t even put on, because I just can’t be arsed.... I’ve had. ST since 97, and I don’t think I’ve even felt so distant from my team as I have over the last two seasons. Sounds sad, but I purposely drive out of my way to work the other day, just so I could drive past the KP. 
 

Im just ready to go back, I’m sick of seeing those empty blue seats, and it makes me sad that out semi could be hijacked by Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea fans....

 

If we can achieve at least a cup final and a CL place, next season will be a thing of beauty. 

I don't think it would be much different if it wasn't a pandemic, we are accustomed to tasting success and demand more of it without grasping just how difficult that is to achieve. I've been guilty of it myself but bottom line there's no other club that's done what we've done in the modern era and it's a privilege to support this team.

 

I'm desperate for the FA Cup win, more so than CL qualification, even though I appreciate for the progression of the club that the latter is more important.

[HighPeakFox]

2 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

One day, when the football Gods are less kind to us, these will be just memories.

Rather than looking for the negatives, I think it's important to soak up the small moments right now.

Forget strong words like 'FAILURE' and 'BOTTLE' and similar stuff.

Focus - as Babylon said - on enjoying this amazing ride.

I wish we could bottle our current situation, in a different sense of this much over-used term.

[FoxOnWheels]

12 hours ago, teblin said:

I think we will get something from Chelsea and Utd away. But 100% agree if we can win the next 4 league games it puts us a brilliant position.

Winning 4 in a row is a big ask though

[Ricey]

At least Chelsea have another match to deal with now towards the end of the season.