2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[filbertway]

12 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

I don't understand the panic regarding the last 3 fixtures, we took 7 points from those fixtures earlier in the session.

 

People are acting as if we are certain to lose all 3. 

Spurs isn't tough. Chelsea and United are tough. Chelsea were easy prey under Lampard, whereas Tuchel has them drilled into being the most boring efficient team the league has ever seen.

 

United, we're away at united, so we've got to beat 13 men.

[Merchant_Banker]

43 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Spurs isn't tough. Chelsea and United are tough. Chelsea were easy prey under Lampard, whereas Tuchel has them drilled into being the most boring efficient team the league has ever seen.

 

United, we're away at united, so we've got to beat 13 men.

United are almost certain to finish 2nd, so nothing to play for. 

[filbertway]

1 minute ago, Merchant_Banker said:

United are almost certain to finish 2nd, so nothing to play for. 

I hope they play the ressies, if they do then we should have enough to win.

 

I feel like Ole will be a knob and go strong against us though. Especially after the FA cup game

 

[turlo]

Man Utd have 2 games in 5 days prior to playing us and only 1 day rest after the Villa game. They should be knackered  by the time they play us on the Tuesday

[Gerard]

It's odds on that 66pts will be enough for top four now which is 7pts for us. Just need to get those two wins ASAP.

 

Point expectation according to the spreads is currently like this:

 

Leicester 68.5

Chelsea 67

--------------------------

Liverpool 64.5

West Ham 63.5

Tottenham 61.5

Everton 60

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 

[weller54]

7 minutes ago, Gerard said:

It's odds on that 66pts will be enough for top four now which is 7pts for us. Just need to get those two wins ASAP.

 

Point expectation according to the spreads is currently like this:

 

Leicester 68.5

Chelsea 67

--------------------------

Liverpool 64.5

West Ham 63.5

Tottenham 61.5

Everton 60

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

 

Palace ..3pts

Saints..  3pts

Newcastle 1 pt.

Manure.. 1 pt

Chelsea.. 0 pts

Spuds... 3 pts.

 

Total...70 pts.

[Aus Fox]

I think most of us have said for a while 68 is the magic number, ideally wins in our next 3 would see us reach that and make certain of Champions League Football before the FA Cup final.

Not always as simple as that, but we know the next 3 are against teams who are beatable. 

[foxes_rule1978]

If we kick all their arses we are in... 

[gurru991]

Just on the Spurs forum & they think we will bottle it again & they will sneak in by beating us on the last day !!

[deanolegend1989]

4 hours ago, Buce said:

 

At three points a game they'd be doing more than very well.

 

4 hours ago, Buce said:

the next 3 games they have are all tricky types, they would do well to get more than 11 points out of them I think.

I missed the 1 word ‘all’ out. The next 3 are tricky, I can’t see them getting more than 11 points out of ‘all’ of them I think(5 left to play).

Burnley(A) Win

Everton(H) Draw

Brighton(A) Draw

West Brom(A) Win

Southampton(H) Win

 

Even that good haul from a depleted West Ham will still mean we only need 66 points.

 

Its a 3 horse race now, with Liverpool having an awful lot to do.

[Long Eaton Fox]

Am I right in thinking that now liverpool are out of the champions league and don't finish in the top 4, and we finish in the top 4 in the premier league we qualify for the 2021/2022 champions league even if arsenal win the europa league they will take the 5th spot. 

[FOXSE]

8 minutes ago, Long Eaton Fox said:

Am I right in thinking that now liverpool are out of the champions league and don't finish in the top 4, and we finish in the top 4 in the premier league we qualify for the 2021/2022 champions league even if arsenal win the europa league they will take the 5th spot. 

Yes. It's a problem if Chelsea finish outside top 4 and win champions league though, for 4th spot.

[hackneyfox]

12 minutes ago, Long Eaton Fox said:

Am I right in thinking that now liverpool are out of the champions league and don't finish in the top 4, and we finish in the top 4 in the premier league we qualify for the 2021/2022 champions league even if arsenal win the europa league they will take the 5th spot. 

Yes

But we need Chelsea to finish top 4. If they don't but win CL and Arsenal win EL then we 4th place misses out.

[trabuch]

This thread is nothing without the bald facts!

[cruzFOX]

1 hour ago, gurru991 said:

Just on the Spurs forum & they think we will bottle it again & they will sneak in by beating us on the last day !!

Gotta laugh at them hotspuds they never learn do they. Wishful thinking on their part. Foxes aren't looking back we're always looking forwards

[UpTheLeagueFox]

2 hours ago, gurru991 said:

Just on the Spurs forum & they think we will bottle it again & they will sneak in by beating us on the last day !!

 

57 minutes ago, cruzFOX said:

Gotta laugh at them hotspuds they never learn do they. Wishful thinking on their part. Foxes aren't looking back we're always looking forwards

 

Never forget 

 

 

 

[jayfox26]

3 hours ago, gurru991 said:

Just on the Spurs forum & they think we will bottle it again & they will sneak in by beating us on the last day !!

That game really could be the bottle derby. Is all seriousness though, ill be amazed if they are still in the running for top 4 by the time we play them.

[Nalis]

10 hours ago, turlo said:

Man Utd have 2 games in 5 days prior to playing us and only 1 day rest after the Villa game. They should be knackered  by the time they play us on the Tuesday

That is horrific and dare I say a bit unfair on them. Although Tuesday wpuld be better for us I'm guessing there's a possibility it will be changed to Wednesday? 

[fox_up_north]

It must be changed. In the field of sporting fairness, they should get 2 days rest. Unfair that they have less than 48 hours between games. 

[Sunbury Fox]

8 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

It must be changed. In the field of sporting fairness, they should get 2 days rest. Unfair that they have less than 48 hours between games. 

We did between our Boxing Day game and the away game at Palace on 28th, when most other teams didn't at the time.

 

It's why we had to play a heavily rotated team at Palace, potentially costing us 2 points.

Edited 25 April 2021 by Sunbury Fox

[Simmo86]

19 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

It must be changed. In the field of sporting fairness, they should get 2 days rest. Unfair that they have less than 48 hours between games. 

Not at all, we’ve got to be ruthless.

 

If it gets changed to the Wednesday its a double whammy for us as Utd get an extra days rest and we get one less for the cup final.

[FOXSE]

21 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

It must be changed. In the field of sporting fairness, they should get 2 days rest. Unfair that they have less than 48 hours between games. 

They don't have fewer than 48 hours between games....

[Bazly]

After all the weekend draws we only need 5 points from 6 games to finish 4th and probably 8 to finish third. If we cannot manage 1 point a game in the run in we don't deserve to finish in a 'reserved for an elite' slot.

[fox_up_north]

40 minutes ago, FOXSE said:

They don't have fewer than 48 hours between games....

Misread the times. Thought they had evening kickoff on Sunday. Feel less bad about it now. 

[gerblod]

13 hours ago, Merchant_Banker said:

United are almost certain to finish 2nd, so nothing to play for. 

Except pride. Although I wouldn't feel particularly proud to play for a club owned by Joel Glazer.