2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Guest Bert Fill]

10 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said:

Even if Spurs have nothing to play for they will be up for the game against us. They still have a lot of players who will be sore about 2015/16 and therefore up for ruining our CL dream.

Maybe, although I doubt these things bother players like they do fans.

But even if they have nothing to play for,  would a team full of really good footballers playing with no pressure necessarily be any easier to beat? They mignt just be able to play relaxed and confident football...

[foxinsocks]

2 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Going 4-0 down to Newcastle at home is the definition of "bottling", especially after we already had a warning shot across the bows at 0-0 when Saint Maximin missed a one on one chance against Schmeichel.

 

Getting two goals back and nearly three with Perez in the last 20 mins when the game was done just amplifies it. All very well upping your game when the game is done and the pressure is off. I'm not one for overreacting on the strength of one game but that performance was unforgiveable. They waltzed through it like it would all work out in the end rather than grabbing it by the scruff of the neck, the epitome of mental weakness for me.

Players are distracted by thoughts of previous mistakes... losses... and are distracted by thoughts of the magnitude of their current match. 

The way out of this is to learn mindfulness to be able to set aside such thoughts.

So rather than being in an "emotional river" as it goes thru a series of rapid... bashing us and pulling us under... we are able to stand on the bank and simple observe the eddies and then fully  focus on tbe matter in hand.

[reynard]

Really can't see us getting top 4 again. Another collapse I'm afraid. The Spurs match could end up being a 7th/8th place play off.

 

Top 4 will be Man City, United, Chelsea and Liverpool with West Ham 5th. I'm afraid our players may  have bottled it again. Three matches to prove me wrong but I'm not very hopeful.

[RonnieTodger]

It’s quite incredible how similar this is to the Bournemouth collapse with three games to go.

 

We’ve got Spurs and Man United in our last three, only now we have Chelsea instead of Sheffield United.

 

The only positive is that we’ve got a much better squad to finish the season off. Hoping United beat Villa and then play a weakened team against us. Surely they want to stop Liverpool getting into the top 4.

[Bats8711]

Brighton now without Dunk and Maupay against WHU next week. If you didn’t laugh you’d cry. Unreal. The problem with WHU and LIV is they only have one game each left that they’re not going to be big favorites in (v EVE and MU respectively). If they don’t slip up in those games it’s very easy to see them taking maximum points. WHU only other tough game on paper was Brighton and that’s gone. They will walk wins against WBA and SOU. 
 

Come on Everton. 

Edited 9 May 2021 by Bats8711

[Gerard]

6 minutes ago, reynard said:

Really can't see us getting top 4 again. Another collapse I'm afraid. The Spurs match could end up being a 7th/8th place play off.

 

Top 4 will be Man City, United, Chelsea and Liverpool with West Ham 5th. I'm afraid our players may  have bottled it again. Three matches to prove me wrong but I'm not very hopeful.

 

We're still favourites to finish 4th believe it or not.

 

I'm a pessimist when we're considered home and hosed and an optimist when we look finished.

 

I'm hoping Everton take something at West Ham today, Man Utd to put out a weakened side against us and lose then beat Liverpool two days later with a first XI. That scenario is not far fetched.

 

Table on Thursday could be:

 

Leicester Ply 36 Pts 66

-------------------------------------

West Ham Ply 35 Pts 59

Liverpool Ply 35 Pts 57

 

That would probably be enough and still have it in our own hands the last game of the season if it isn't. We really only need one good week where we win and Liverpool and West Ham don't.

 

It's the hope that kills you. 

[OrielCaziado]

Seeing the team United have out today has made me more optimistic for Tuesday. Still be a tough game against the United fringe players but looks like we will have an easier task than Liverpool might. 

[sishades]

15 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

Hoping United beat Villa

Not going to plan unfortunately

[foxes_rule1978]

1 minute ago, sishades said:

Not going to plan unfortunately

Chance of getting 2nd 😃

[NasPb]

19 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

Brighton now without Dunk and Maupay against WHU next week. If you didn’t laugh you’d cry. Unreal. The problem with WHU and LIV is they only have one game each left that they’re not going to be big favorites in (v EVE and MU respectively). If they don’t slip up in those games it’s very easy to see them taking maximum points. WHU only other tough game on paper was Brighton and that’s gone. They will walk wins against WBA and SOU. 
 

Come on Everton. 

Xg merchants strike again 

[Stevosevic]

6 minutes ago, sishades said:

Not going to plan unfortunately

Not sure it matters after their team selection today and v Roma 

 

We'll be playing reserves for sure on Tuesday now and we don't want the first team in cruise control v Liverpool.

[sishades]

I think we would still struggle even if Yanited played a team of under 10s in wheelchairs.

[Raw Dykes]

28 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

It’s quite incredible how similar this is to the Bournemouth collapse with three games to go.

 

We’ve got Spurs and Man United in our last three, only now we have Chelsea instead of Sheffield United.

 

The only positive is that we’ve got a much better squad to finish the season off. Hoping United beat Villa and then play a weakened team against us. Surely they want to stop Liverpool getting into the top 4.

 

13 minutes ago, sishades said:

Not going to plan unfortunately

I don't think it matters what happens in this Villa v Man Utd game. Man Utd will be heavily rotating the team against us, anyway. Even if they don't, we will face a team that has played 2 days before.

Edited 9 May 2021 by Raw Dykes

[foxes_rule1978]

1 minute ago, Raw Dykes said:

 

I don't think it matters what happens in this Vila v Man Utd game. Man Utd will be heavily rotating the team against us, anyway. Even if they don't, we will face a team that has played 2 days before.

Who also played roma not long ago 

[Pliskin]

Another issue is, when we go on a bad run under Rodgers they seem to stick..... we never seem to be able to break out of them. It seems like this is our bad run this season, and it’s come right at the end.

 

When we lack confidence we’re frankly appalling, and at the moment we look like we’ve lost all confidence. 

[foxes_rule1978]

1 minute ago, Pliskin said:

Another issue is, when we go on a bad run under Rodgers they seem to stick..... we never seem to be able to break out of them. It seems like this is our bad run this season, and it’s come right at the end.

 

When we lack confidence we’re frankly appalling, and at the moment we look like we’ve lost all confidence. 

I’m sure we lost 3-nil to West Ham and come back... one defeat isn’t a run... 

[turlo]

3 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

Another issue is, when we go on a bad run under Rodgers they seem to stick..... we never seem to be able to break out of them. It seems like this is our bad run this season, and it’s come right at the end.

 

When we lack confidence we’re frankly appalling, and at the moment we look like we’ve lost all confidence. 

This season we've usually bounced back from defeats straightaway. The most we had was 2 defeats in a row but in the main we've avoiding going on a really bad run like we did the previous season. 

[Pliskin]

13 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

I’m sure we lost 3-nil to West Ham and come back... one defeat isn’t a run... 

it’s the performances, they’ve fallen off a cliff. Even the FA cup semi final wasn’t great. We seem to be losing confidence, and Friday night was the worse yet. So far we’ve been pretty good at bouncing back from defeats, but we don’t seem to have recovered performance wise since that West Ham loss. The last two games have been very worrying displays, we’ve looked a shadow of the team that we were even a month a go. 

[OrielCaziado]

49 minutes ago, Raw Dykes said:

 

I don't think it matters what happens in this Villa v Man Utd game. Man Utd will be heavily rotating the team against us, anyway. Even if they don't, we will face a team that has played 2 days before.

On reflection I think I’d rather United are virtually unchanged against us. They’d be legless.  The fringe players will be full of energy and probably a more tricky task than this team playing again so quickly. 

[jeffschlupp]

1 hour ago, RonnieTodger said:

It’s quite incredible how similar this is to the Bournemouth collapse with three games to go.

 

We’ve got Spurs and Man United in our last three, only now we have Chelsea instead of Sheffield United.

 

The only positive is that we’ve got a much better squad to finish the season off. Hoping United beat Villa and then play a weakened team against us. Surely they want to stop Liverpool getting into the top 4.

How much better is the squad?

 

For the last 3 games of the season we were without Soyuncu, Ricardo, Chilwell, Maddison and Fuchs, while Albrighton returned for Man United. This time we are without Justin, Barnes and Morgan, possibly Evans (who has the same injury Chilwell had!) - and Maddison and Ricardo are unfit and bang out of form. We are back in this ineffective 3atb shape, with a similar set of players to choose from (with the addition of Fofana rather than Bennett, granted).

 

We were 1 point behind Chelsea after 35, but crucially level with Man United this time last season. Those extra couple of points we could have on West Ham and Liverpool could make all the difference.

 

United were in title-winning form after Fernandes came in last January. West Ham and Liverpool are not. And so if we do qualify this year, it is more because the competition around us is not good enough, rather than us pulling away and being comfortable.

[Raw Dykes]

5 minutes ago, OrielCaziado said:

On reflection I think I’d rather United are virtually unchanged against us. They’d be legless.  The fringe players will be full of energy and probably a more tricky task than this team playing again so quickly. 

I think you're right, but I can't see them playing the same team again in 2 days.

 

We should be backing ourselves against Man Utd's reserves, but I think the wheels have come off for the second year running.

[SixtiesFox]

It's hard to see us finishing top 4 from here. Despite the current points advantage we still have, when you compare our remaining fixtures with those of West Ham and Liverpool we have surrendered the initiative and at least one, probably both, will take advantage. They smell blood and we have lost all the momentum we had in the bank. We had the chance to clinch it but missed two golden opportunities to do so against Southampton and Newcastle. Prior to that we also had the chance to virtually eliminate West Ham in a six pointer. This is exactly what happened last year. When we had chances to slam the door shut, even usually when playing against inferior opposition, we failed to convert. Why? For me it's mentality. We lack that winner's mentality, that self-belief and touch of arrogance that winners need. You could point to the fact that we have a young squad but, despite the fact that Rodgers has so many qualities that make him a great coach, the team reflects his personality. He lacks that ruthless edge that all winners need. And please, don't anyone site Celtic as a counter argument.  

[RonnieTodger]

37 minutes ago, jeffschlupp said:

How much better is the squad?

 

For the last 3 games of the season we were without Soyuncu, Ricardo, Chilwell, Maddison and Fuchs, while Albrighton returned for Man United. This time we are without Justin, Barnes and Morgan, possibly Evans (who has the same injury Chilwell had!) - and Maddison and Ricardo are unfit and bang out of form. We are back in this ineffective 3atb shape, with a similar set of players to choose from (with the addition of Fofana rather than Bennett, granted).

It’s far from perfect, but it’s much better IMO. Think back to that 3-0 defeat at Spurs, we had Morgan, Bennett and a rookie Luke Thomas in the side. Jonny Evans was woefully out of form then too. As bad as Soyuncu was on Friday, he can also be superb. 
 

The Evans injury is a huge worry though.

Edited 9 May 2021 by RonnieTodger

[Guest ttfn]

4 hours ago, enmac said:

Average age of the present squad is 25.4. Compare this to the 2015/16 squad when it was 28.5. Age/experience must be a factor especially in defence. I mean just consider Simpson, Morgan, Huth and Fuchs. All of them had been around the block at least once, and then you look at the defence Friday evening! If only we could transport that 4 from 2015 to now. I'd then be fairly confident about our final matches. 

Experience is huge in defensive positions. Experience gives you the ability to smell danger before it happens - that is true of any job, but particularly ones that are more about control than creativity (like being a defender).

 

Fofana and Soyuncu have incredible physical attributes but a real lack of nous. Soyuncu’s cruyff turn the other day was a case in point. All the technical (and physical) ability in the world but no understanding of where the threat might be. 

[Guest ttfn]

We’ve lost more home games this season than we did in the Great Escape season.