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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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6 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

1000% - I get the sentiment but another team busting into Rich 6 territory is bad for LCFC, there's no way around that.  

 

People are trying to brush off the Chelsea result as not that big a deal.  I understand because we're all going through a trauma.  But it's actually a massive blow and could be the result as much as any other that denies us CL.  By my math, had Chelsea lost that game, a win vs them would have meant that they would have had to take maximum points and we would had have to lose our other two for them to overtake us.  In other words, as bad as things have been, one result in our last 3 could have been enough to finish above CHE and get CL even if one of WHU / LIV overtook us.  This narrative that they were always going to overtake us and we were always only competing for one spot is false.  Once they beat Man City away, then ya.  Crushing result and really narrows the possibilities for us getting across the line. 

 

It's like watching a car crash in slow motion.  Inevitable but you can't look away.  It's the hope that kills you.

 

GO FOXES!

 

Best post I've read for a while. :appl:

 

Chelsea still had it all to do with their fixtures and a win away at Manchester City is a big kick in the nuts for us. What looked like any two from four this afternoon now looks like any one from three.

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31 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

I’d want West Ham to get it too! At least they might get one over the big six....

Yeah, if we don’t get in I want to see this bunch of bottle jobs have to watch west ham play in the champions league next season 

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10 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

1000% - I get the sentiment but another team busting into Rich 6 territory is bad for LCFC, there's no way around that.  

 

People are trying to brush off the Chelsea result as not that big a deal.  I understand because we're all going through a trauma.  But it's actually a massive blow and could be the result as much as any other that denies us CL.  By my math, had Chelsea lost that game, a win vs them would have meant that they would have had to take maximum points and we would had have to lose our other two for them to overtake us.  In other words, as bad as things have been, one result in our last 3 could have been enough to finish above CHE and get CL even if one of WHU / LIV overtook us.  This narrative that they were always going to overtake us and we were always only competing for one spot is false.  Once they beat Man City away, then ya.  Crushing result and really narrows the possibilities for us getting across the line. 

 

It's like watching a car crash in slow motion.  Inevitable but you can't look away.  It's the hope that kills you.

 

GO FOXES!

Ourselves and West Ham have been stitched up something chronic tonight by Pep's team.

 

Given Chelsea the chance to rest players for the next week too.

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44 minutes ago, OhYesNdidi said:

No way, if we completely bottle top 4 which in an utter disgrace then i hope west ham get it

Yes, it might be nice to stick one up the Super League teams but let's live in the reality- West Ham are a more natural competitor, with the pull of London already working against us, Champions League too will harm our chances of getting players whilst improving theirs.

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9 minutes ago, Corky said:

Yes, it might be nice to stick one up the Super League teams but let's live in the reality- West Ham are a more natural competitor, with the pull of London already working against us, Champions League too will harm our chances of getting players whilst improving theirs.

Not really? We’re a team who play completely differently and will probably be after a different profile of player! 

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Guys I'm sorry to say it but we don't deserve top 4 if we can't get a result against 10 man Southampton and get stuffed by relegation threatened Newcastle.....Liverpool this season just like Man Utd last were always capable of going on a run and like last season we had our opportunities to get ourselves over the line and we've blown it...again....hoping for results away at United and Chelsea was the nightmare scenario made even worse now by Evans injury and our massive dip in form. We can live in hope but realistically unless United play their reserves and Spurs want to lose to avoid the Europa Conference League were clutching at very short straws now.....never should have been like this but its the Leicester way of late sadly 😞 

Edited by tickler28
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I think I’m ending the season now for me. I can’t take another slow inevitable death. I don’t want to see Harry Kane wheeling away after scoring a 4th goal against us providing Mason with a managerial contract and us slump to sixth, just can’t take it. For some reason this feels worse than those years being absolutely sub standard in the championship at least then we knew we were shit, we’ve been in the top four consistently for two seasons, and still can’t do it..... something is fundamentally wrong at the club, a mentality needs changing, but how do we do that? They clearly haven’t learnt have they? 

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Chelsea were always likely to overtake at some point, they have a huge squad and finally have a manager who can manage said squad. The bigger threat was always going to be whether we could get enough points to keep West Ham and Liverpool at bay.

 

I've always been a pessimistic fan, and have accepted that we lose all three (and the cup) and Spurs, West Ham, and Liverpool win all three/four. However, if I try to be objective (which is difficult at the best of times) it's not inconceivable that Liverpool drop points to United and get s***housed by Big Sam or Dyche. I can't see it happening, but this is a Liverpool side that has taken 5(?) points from those reapective fixtures earlier in the season and not the side that ran away with the league. It's also not out of the question that West Ham drop points to a Jekyll and Hide Everton, a decent if not flakey Brighton side, or an erratic Saints etc. Chelsea could even drop points to a half decent Grealish bonus Villa side, or a London derby with Arsenal (ha!). 

 

I just cannot see us getting more than 3 points (I sincerely hope I'm wrong) but that may be enough.

 

We're still fortunate that we control our own destiny, and hopefully we find one last push... or we fall into 6th/7th on our sorry backsides and pat ourselves on the back for another 'good effort'.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, lcfc_forever said:

Getting annoyed at seeing these comments about 'not deserving to be in the CL' because we drew with Southampton and lost to Newcastle.

 

Well do Chelsea deserve to be in the CL have been hammered 5-2 by West Brom? Or Liverpool who were beaten by Brighton at home and thrashed by Aston Villa?

 

Yes, the previous two matches were poor and hugely disappointing but it should go without saying that what matters is whether we're in the top 4 at the end of the season. 

 

It's going to be incredibly tough now and I'm admittedly pessimistic. But whether we deserve to be in the CL is decided over 38 games, not two matches.  

 

I think the point is that these were our last two results .... 

 

 

 

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If we fail to make the top 4 it won’t be because of our last 3 games it will be because of the points we gave away earlier in the season.

However Friday night was the straw that broke our backs.

Where has my team gone that use to attack with speed down the flanks and put balls in to the area. I find this style of playing out from the back so boring, most teams have worked us out, yet we don’t seem to be able to break them down.

The back line be it 3 or 4 hold the ball far to long playing me to you and you to me, and by the time they reach halfway we have to beat a whole team. Running off the ball is almost non existent as are diagonal balls players seem to stand still wanting the ball and once they receive it and pass it on its job done .

The whole team had a wake up call on Friday night some more than others.

The whole setup needs to take a long hard look at themselves  and sort it out for next season, as I fear like last season we have shot ourselves in the foot.

 

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4 hours ago, Always Next Year said:

If we fail to make the top 4 it won’t be because of our last 3 games it will be because of the points we gave away earlier in the season.

However Friday night was the straw that broke our backs.

Where has my team gone that use to attack with speed down the flanks and put balls in to the area. I find this style of playing out from the back so boring, most teams have worked us out, yet we don’t seem to be able to break them down.

The back line be it 3 or 4 hold the ball far to long playing me to you and you to me, and by the time they reach halfway we have to beat a whole team. Running off the ball is almost non existent as are diagonal balls players seem to stand still wanting the ball and once they receive it and pass it on its job done .

The whole team had a wake up call on Friday night some more than others.

The whole setup needs to take a long hard look at themselves  and sort it out for next season, as I fear like last season we have shot ourselves in the foot.

 

The biggest load of rubbish that cliche is. The facts are we had to beat a 10 man Saints OR a tricky but ultimately average at best Newcastle team for CL football.

We have twice had Friday night matches to secure a huge chance and we bottled it both weekends. We bottled it last season too and after Chelsea’s result today we need a miracle. It won’t happen.

 

5 hours ago, Bats8711 said:

1000% - I get the sentiment but another team busting into Rich 6 territory is bad for LCFC, there's no way around that.  

 

People are trying to brush off the Chelsea result as not that big a deal.  I understand because we're all going through a trauma.  But it's actually a massive blow and could be the result as much as any other that denies us CL.  By my math, had Chelsea lost that game, a win vs them would have meant that they would have had to take maximum points and we would had have to lose our other two for them to overtake us.  In other words, as bad as things have been, one result in our last 3 could have been enough to finish above CHE and get CL even if one of WHU / LIV overtook us.  This narrative that they were always going to overtake us and we were always only competing for one spot is false.  Once they beat Man City away, then ya.  Crushing result and really narrows the possibilities for us getting across the line. 

 

It's like watching a car crash in slow motion.  Inevitable but you can't look away.  It's the hope that kills you.

 

GO FOXES!

Great post, absolutely spot on 👏.

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20 hours ago, lcfcell said:

After sleeping on it i can’t see us getting another point let alone winning again. Might just be me being OTT after a bad game but can’t see us recovering from that 

Yep. Only reason we got anything after Bournemouth last season was because we happened to play a Sheffield United side who by which point had totally caved in before any of us really knew it. No such luck this time. I honestly think it's four defeats and 5th or 6th now - and that sounds reactionary, but we have previous.

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It is the hope that kills you with this team, and I don't want to die of a coronary at this moment, so I have accepted that we will not get top 4.  I can't let this team put me through the wringer again like last season, so if by a miracle we manage to get enough points in the last 3 games, then I will see it as a bonus. 

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9 hours ago, Blue ROI said:

Ourselves and West Ham have been stitched up something chronic tonight by Pep's team.

 

Given Chelsea the chance to rest players for the next week too.

I'm hoping that Man U and Chelsea copy Pep when they play us. Ole has hinted that he will and Chelsea may have top 4 tied up when they play us.

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Dropping points at Southampton meant in my mind we had to make up those two points somehow in the last three fixtures. Dropping another three against Newcastle means we have five to make up in those games. Given the fragile nature of our team (and manager) under pressure, and the woeful form of several key players, notably our talisman striker, I can’t for the life of me see that happening.

 

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9 hours ago, Pliskin said:

I think I’m ending the season now for me. I can’t take another slow inevitable death. I don’t want to see Harry Kane wheeling away after scoring a 4th goal against us providing Mason with a managerial contract and us slump to sixth, just can’t take it. For some reason this feels worse than those years being absolutely sub standard in the championship at least then we knew we were shit, we’ve been in the top four consistently for two seasons, and still can’t do it..... something is fundamentally wrong at the club, a mentality needs changing, but how do we do that? They clearly haven’t learnt have they? 

For my own mental wellbeing I know I shouldn't watch the rest of the season...and yet I just can't switch off 😭

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