2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Gerard]

52 minutes ago, filbertway said:

I tell you what though. It's nice to have the passion back. In that 16/17 season I didn't really feel anything at all for a good 6 months and was worried that following Leicester had been ruined by the title win.

 

Ranieri losing his head and ripping Pearsons back room structure up like Peter Taylor on coke helped stoke the fire again and it's been burning strong since

 

 

Great point, after winning the title it was all a bit "after the Lord's mayor show". I sort of felt football should have ended there as we'd climbed our Mount Everest and the new season came around too quickly and seemed meanginless.

 

I'm back now though and overly invested in Leicester again. I've been on a diet and alcohol free for three week and planned to stay like that until July but after the Newcastle game I hit the chocolate and gin. 

 

 

[FoxinNotts]

So if we win tomorrow and Liverpool lose on Thursday, is it pretty much all over barring the shouting?

[Ricey]

Just now, FoxinNotts said:

So if we win tomorrow and Liverpool lose on Thursday, is it pretty much all over barring the shouting?

It would mean that all we'd need to do is pick up one more point to be sure, or if we pick up no more points then we have to hope that Liverpool and West Ham don't win all their remaining games.

[filbertway]

5 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Great point, after winning the title it was all a bit "after the Lord's mayor show". I sort of felt football should have ended there as we'd climbed our Mount Everest and the new season came around too quickly and seemed meanginless.

 

I'm back now though and overly invested in Leicester again. I've been on a diet and alcohol free for three week and planned to stay like that until July but after the Newcastle game I hit the chocolate and gin. 

Haha they're riving me to drink as well.

 

I only tend to have a drink on a Saturday. I've had 6 or 7 bottles every time Leicester have played recently and you know how rare it is for us to play on a Saturday

 

[FoxinNotts]

22 minutes ago, Ricey said:

It would mean that all we'd need to do is pick up one more point to be sure, or if we pick up no more points then we have to hope that Liverpool and West Ham don't win all their remaining games.

A good position to get to 🤞🏻

[Gerard]

20 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Haha they're riving me to drink as well.

 

I only tend to have a drink on a Saturday. I've had 6 or 7 bottles every time Leicester have played recently and you know how rare it is for us to play on a Saturday

 

 

I hope you're on about 6 or 7 bottles of beer and not whisky? Although after the Newcastle game beer probably doesn't do the job. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

UPDATE 10th May

 

Sorry for the delay in a proper update - kinda lost all hope and motivation after Friday night...

 

Obviously we've made it incredibly hard for ourselves now. It's still technically in our hands, but given our fixtures and those of West Ham and Liverpool I think we're relying on the double swing of us getting a result or 2 and them dropping more points. 

 

All the more annoying that my long predicted target of 68 points would have had us sorted by now had we done the job vs Soton and Newcastle (although Liverpool could still max out at 69). 

 

2 wins could guarantee it (Liverpool's goal difference aside...)

 

But 1 more win could be enough. That'd put us on 66 points, would mean West Ham would need maximum points, but we'd need Liverpool to lose 1 or draw 2. 

 

So could easily go down to the last day again - maybe us beating Spurs and hoping for Liverpool to drop something?

 

 

Points Required

 

 

 

Droppable Points

 

 

 

Fixtures

 

 

 

Edited 10 May 2021 by Les-TA-Jon

[UniFox21]

Can't see us pulling it off, 3 absolutely horrible games to go

[Detroit Blues]

3 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

Can't see us pulling it off, 3 absolutely horrible games to go

We might need just one win against Man U's "B-Team," a rotated Chelsea team trying to stay fresh for the Champions League Final, or a complacent Tottenham team with nothing to play for.

 

[Kilworthfox]

The great news is, we will play against teams who wont sit back and defend, because they all think they are better than us.

 

Our major weakness is breaking down a defence, we will be top 4. Your welcome in advance. 

[Gerard]

41 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

Can't see us pulling it off, 3 absolutely horrible games to go

 

We probably play a Man Utd B team as their A team prepare to play Liverpool Thursday night. I'm praying for Man Utd to lose to us and beat Liverpool

 

Come Thursday evening if all goes to plan then Liverpool, Everton or West Ham would need to win all their remaining games just to have a chance. Even if they won all their games the table looks like this:

 

West Ham 67pts

------------------------------

Everton 67pts

Liverpool 66pts

Leicester 66pts

 

We will probably lose out to Liverpool on GD and beat West Ham & Everton on GD. So assuming the Man Utd games go the way we want 1pt from our last two games will be enough and probably zero points gets us home at least 50% of the time.

 

We have another out this week.

Edited 10 May 2021 by Gerard

[tickler28]

1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

UPDATE 10th May

 

Sorry for the delay in a proper update - kinda lost all hope and motivation after Friday night...

 

Obviously we've made it incredibly hard for ourselves now. It's still technically in our hands, but given our fixtures and those of West Ham and Liverpool I think we're relying on the double swing of us getting a result or 2 and them dropping more points. 

 

All the more annoying that my long predicted target of 68 points would have had us sorted by now had we done the job vs Soton and Newcastle (although Liverpool could still max out at 69). 

 

2 wins could guarantee it (Liverpool's goal difference aside...)

 

But 1 more win could be enough. That'd put us on 66 points, would mean West Ham would need maximum points, but we'd need Liverpool to lose 1 or draw 2. 

 

So could easily go down to the last day again - maybe us beating Spurs and hoping for Liverpool to drop something?

 

 

Points Required

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Droppable Points

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Fixtures

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West Ham win 3 they have 67 points

[Xen]

1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Fixtures

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I have a feeling we might just get a result against Chelsea if we're playing on the 18th but they don't turn up until the 19th... 

 

It would require a perfect week for us, but if ourselves and Chelsea win our next games and Liverpool lose to United, then we go into the Chelsea game with both sides needing just a point to confirm a CL spot...

[Les-TA-Jon]

13 minutes ago, tickler28 said:

West Ham win 3 they have 67 points

Correct. It's impossible to drop only 1 point, you can only drop 2 or 3 points per game. So if we get 66 points, then West Ham can only better it with 3 wins. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

6 minutes ago, Xen said:

I have a feeling we might just get a result against Chelsea if we're playing on the 18th but they don't turn up until the 19th... 

Haha FFS they've moved the fixtures around so much recently - I thought I had everything right!

[Eskay]

Ignoring the Utd v Liverpool game for a second....anything less than a win on Tuesday and I think it's goodnight vienna for us.

[Nalis]

Just me that thinks Spurs at home isnt that horrific? They're decent up top but shocking at the back recently, most recent games I've seen of them (bar the Sheffield United game) have shown they are so open. They will probably also need to play for a win when they face us.

 

I think we'll need something from the Spurs game to get top 4 but I think we'll get a result from it

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 minutes ago, Eskay said:

Ignoring the Utd v Liverpool game for a second....anything less than a win on Tuesday and I think it's goodnight vienna for us.

Other than the fact that we could lose the next 3, beat Spurs on the final day and still quality...

[dannythefox]

Struggling to get exited about top 4 now but we do still have a chance. Utd should have a few changes plus Harry’s out also they’ll want to beat Liverpool a lot more than they will us so it could work in our favour. Saying this if we’re only going to win one more game make it the FA Cup final sod the champions league.

Edited 10 May 2021 by dannythefox

[Eskay]

Just now, Les-TA-Jon said:

Other than the fact that we could lose the next 3, beat Spurs on the final day and still quality...

Yep I'm purely going on my gut instincts - this isn't my interpretation of the maths.

 

I don't think we have the minerals to take 3 points from Spurs on the final day if it comes to it.

 

[chapero82]

1 minute ago, dannythefox said:

Struggling to get exited about top 4 now but we do still have a chance. Utd should have a few changes plus Harry’s out also they’ll want to beat Liverpool a lot more than they will us so it could work in our favour. Saying this if we’re only going going to win one more game make it the FA Cup final sod the champions league.

Champions league is the most important as it keeps us moving forward as a club with extra money etc 

[Les-TA-Jon]

Just now, Eskay said:

Yep I'm purely going on my gut instincts - this isn't my interpretation of the maths.

 

I don't think we have the minerals to take 3 points from Spurs on the final day if it comes to it.

 

Yeah I kinda agree with you, psychologically speaking. We've just got to hope for a final twist, stranger things have happened. 

 

It's weird how desolate we all felt on Friday night and how low our confidence is, and yet just 1 more win could be enough

[dannythefox]

Just now, chapero82 said:

Champions league is the most important as it keeps us moving forward as a club with extra money etc 

Money wise yes but I’d rather win the cup as I’m sure the players would.

[cruzFOX]

BLOODY HELL we all wanted to avoid this nightmare scenario didn't we and here we are looking over our shoulder and praying to the football gods at the same time for some big favors. I think Olly will be clever and still try to beat us albeit with a changed squad so lets not get carried away. Slab head is injured but I think he would have been rested for this game anyway. We still need a massive performance on the day. I'm confident Kelechi will put the goals in for us but the rest of the team need to pull their big boy pants up and play like this is the FA cup final. Do that and we can win this game. Olly has one eye really making it painful for city by trying to catchup to them winning every game so I'm not expecting favors. He's only changing his squad because he needs to rest certain key players but the message will be the same go out and get all 3 points. so cmon Rogers get the boys riled up to play like we know they can. Set them up well start on the front foot and hit utd hard and fast. 

[KingsX]

6 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

People say that football is their religion but its nothing like having a faith. Being religious you always believe that things will be OK and yet with football you are waiting for them to let you down. Unless you've cherry picked who you support but even then it's no guarantee there won't be a lot of heartache.

 

You ain't telling me that religious folk sling 8 pints down them before church and then start kicking off at the choir and vicar when the service is shit. No they all potter about really happy and content and go home for a modest serving of quiche and a tea. 

 

Football is torture, its horrendous, its fcukin brilliant. This club will let us down, but we'll also let them down because of what it stirs inside us. This isn't a faith, its a tribal battle. 2 weeks to not have our summers ruined and the missus and kids have a disinterested 37 year old baby moping about the house.

 

Sort it Leicester and I'll forever believe.

 

I'm downright jealous of that post 

 

Quality.