2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Chocolate Teapot]

2 hours ago, Pliskin said:

Another issue is, when we go on a bad run under Rodgers they seem to stick..... we never seem to be able to break out of them. It seems like this is our bad run this season, and it’s come right at the end.

 

When we lack confidence we’re frankly appalling, and at the moment we look like we’ve lost all confidence. 

Weve never lost more than 2 games on the trot under Rodgers.

[Leicester_Loyal]

4 hours ago, enmac said:

Average age of the present squad is 25.4. Compare this to the 2015/16 squad when it was 28.5. Age/experience must be a factor especially in defence. I mean just consider Simpson, Morgan, Huth and Fuchs. All of them had been around the block at least once, and then you look at the defence Friday evening! If only we could transport that 4 from 2015 to now. I'd then be fairly confident about our final matches. 

 

14 minutes ago, ttfn said:

Experience is huge in defensive positions. Experience gives you the ability to smell danger before it happens - that is true of any job, but particularly ones that are more about control than creativity (like being a defender).

 

Fofana and Soyuncu have incredible physical attributes but a real lack of nous. Soyuncu’s cruyff turn the other day was a case in point. All the technical (and physical) ability in the world but no understanding of where the threat might be. 

I did think this the other day, in defence we've lost the experience of Morgan and Fuchs in the 2nd half of this season. Next season we'll have KDH and potentially Sowah in the squad as well, they'll be inexperienced in the division.

 

Obviously in 12 months time everyone will be more experienced naturally, but I'd like a player signed who is late 20s/early 30s but a bit of a leader. Not sure if Tarkowski is gonna be suitable, don't really think he'll accept being a squad option. We'll probably end up with some winger who's older but a free transfer.

[Nalis]

So the max points teams around us can get now is:

 

Chelsea 73

Leicester 72

Liverpool 69

West Ham 67

Everton 67

Spurs 65

 

We are currently on 63

[KFS]

A win, a draw and a Liverpool loss

[turlo]

now need Man Utd to get a result against the scousers and us get 4 points....

[Guest bennytwohats]

1 minute ago, Nalis said:

So the max points teams around us can get now is:

 

Chelsea 73

Leicester 72

Liverpool 69

West Ham 67

Everton 67

Spurs 65

 

We are currently on 63

So 7 points needed to guarantee it. I reckon 4 will probably do it in all likelihood

[David Guiza]

Looking at the upcoming fixtures, it'd likely be beneficial if Fulham get a result v Burnley and Southampton in their next two so that Brighton aren't on the beach (excuse the pun) when they play West Ham.

 

I still think 4 points will be enough on the basis that Liverpool hopefully lose one of their four or draw a couple etc. Any sort of positive of result on Tuesday will reignite our season you feel, but that's far easier said than done.

[Sharpe's Fox]

yep 4 points for me as well. A win against United so soon after the horror show on Friday would be a blessing.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

4 hours ago, Bats8711 said:

Brighton now without Dunk and Maupay against WHU next week.WHU only other tough game on paper was Brighton and that’s gone. They will walk wins against WBA and SOU. 

Their fans would've said we'd walk wins v Soton and Newcastle.

Chelsea would've felt they'd walk it v WBA.

Liverpool would've felt they'd walk it v Newcastle, Fulham, Brighton, Burnley, Soton, Villa etc etc

 

3 hours ago, Pliskin said:

Another issue is, when we go on a bad run under Rodgers they seem to stick..... we never seem to be able to break out of them. It seems like this is our bad run this season, and it’s come right at the end.

Lost back to back 4 times this season. Our "bad run" right now, since losing to Man C and West Ham, is W3 D1 L1.

[lcfcfoz]

Beat united. United beat pool. 1 more point required and chelsea beat arsenal will guarantee top 4 for  chelsea. So a chelsea rotation for a point and job done before final game, which both managers can talk about after cup final. Leaving it in Chelsea hand to still finish 3rd. Everyone happy except liverpool aha

Edited 9 May 2021 by lcfcfoz

[Ricey]

We’ve been given another brilliant opportunity. Still 5 points clear and facing a Man Utd team who have had barely any time to prepare and face their only relevant league match two days afterwards.

 

The performance on Friday, plus Tottenham and West Ham both losing, HAS to give the players a lift and cause a reaction. If it doesn’t, well, then issues must run pretty deep.

 

I just hope the players are capable of putting in a tenacious, aggressive performance on Tuesday with the cup final looming large.

[Sharpe's Fox]

4 minutes ago, Ricey said:

We’ve been given another brilliant opportunity. Still 5 points clear and facing a Man Utd team who have had barely any time to prepare and face their only relevant league match two days afterwards.

 

The performance on Friday, plus Tottenham and West Ham both losing, HAS to give the players a lift and cause a reaction. If it doesn’t, well, then issues must run pretty deep.

 

I just hope the players are capable of putting in a tenacious, aggressive performance on Tuesday with the cup final looming large.

spot on, this. If they don't put in a performance against United then go home because why are they playing football if they can't get pumped up for that. Of course the flipside is we had a winner takes all game against them last season and looked like a League 1 side.

[OhYesNdidi]

8 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

spot on, this. If they don't put in a performance against United then go home because why are they playing football if they can't get pumped up for that. Of course the flipside is we had a winner takes all game against them last season and looked like a League 1 side.

Not sure you can use last seasons 0-2 against man u as a reference. The team we put out because of injuries was, well, unfortunetly, dreaful. 

[Finn Claw II]

I just want the team to turn up vs. Man Utd and play the football they are capable of.  At least we should have the chance to counter rather than fail to break down 10 men behind a ball

[STUHILL]

From BBC - Top four for Man Utd
Speaking of things getting firmed up, that win for Everton also means Manchester United have confirmed a top-four finish this season and with it Champions League football for next term.

 

Could be a good or bad thing this for us. Premier League games less important for them now. 

 

Surely Liverpool is the game they will be more up for, than us. I am clinging on to any edge we may have to get over the line 

[Lambert09]

I think what’s clear is that there are still 4 other teams in this and we can’t rely on others as at least one of them will get the results.  Lose on Tuesday and it’s curtains 

[foxes_rule1978]

3 minutes ago, Finn Claw II said:

I just want the team to turn up vs. Man Utd and play the football they are capable of.  At least we should have the chance to counter rather than fail to break down 10 men behind a ball

Play like we did in the QF and it will be 3 points 

[Mythyaar]

Oli fielding a weakened side against LFC  on Thursday, and then losing to them, is a sackable offence in their fans' eyes, such is the genuine rivalry/antagonism between them.

 

So, if he's going to rest players, fingers crossed it's v us on Tuesday.

[foxes_rule1978]

5 minutes ago, Mythyaar said:

Oli fielding a weakened side against LFC  on Thursday, and then losing to them, is a sackable offence in their fans' eyes, such is the genuine rivalry/antagonism between them.

 

So, if he's going to rest players, fingers crossed it's v us on Tuesday.

It will impact Man U in many ways with Liverpool getting CL. It’s best if Man U keep them out 

[STUHILL]

9 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I think what’s clear is that there are still 4 other teams in this and we can’t rely on others as at least one of them will get the results.  Lose on Tuesday and it’s curtains 

It's not though is it. We could beat Chelsea and Spurs and still finish 4th. 

[Lambert09]

5 minutes ago, STUHILL said:

It's not though is it. We could beat Chelsea and Spurs and still finish 4th. 

I’d bet my life that wouldn’t happen. I wish I shared your optimism 

[Wolfox]

7 hours ago, Wolfox said:

<50% now 

 

 

And just like that…. Popped up again

 

 

[turlo]

6 minutes ago, foxes_rule1978 said:

It will impact Man U in many ways with Liverpool getting CL. It’s best if Man U keep them out 

Man Utd will want to be ruthless and try to ensure Liverpool don't get champions league football next season at a time when Liverpool need to invest in their squad and don't have the finances to go and blow 150 mill on rebuilding their squad without the UCL money. It would be Man Utds chance to get ahead of their biggest rivals again.

[STUHILL]

2 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

I’d bet my life that wouldn’t happen. I wish I shared your optimism 

I really wouldn't! Football is full of surprises and we have beaten both those teams already this season. 

 

I actually think we are more capable of getting a win against Man U and Spurs, but Chelsea aren't all of a sudden invincible. They will still have their off days like any other team. 

 

Our team at times this season have been incredible. We just need things to click on the day and maybe the rub of the green in key moments, and we can beat anyone. I will be be optimistic and enjoy the ride, up until the season ends or it is no longer mathematically possible. 

[StanSP]

53 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Their fans would've said we'd walk wins v Soton and Newcastle.

Chelsea would've felt they'd walk it v WBA.

Liverpool would've felt they'd walk it v Newcastle, Fulham, Brighton, Burnley, Soton, Villa etc etc

 

Lost back to back 4 times this season. Our "bad run" right now, since losing to Man C and West Ham, is W3 D1 L1.

This is the misery of FT in all its glory (not you).

 

It's the fact that some fans think we'll bottle it, lose more than we win, generally fail, whilst totally missing the downright facts that other teams do actually lose games. And even more so in this outright weird season, mainly for the results you mention above. 

 

It's even proven today. Everyone thought West Ham would gain ground on us. Did they? Nope!