Ukraine

[String fellow]

Before Christmas, when we were all getting obsessed with the PM's office parties, the Russians where trying to get NATO to withdraw to its pre-1997 position. That is, before Poland, the 3 Baltic States and the Balkan countries joined the organisation. I don't remember it being referred to on FT at all, and yet it may have been a far bigger story in the scheme of things. The Russian demand was immediately rejected, not surprisingly. So what we're now seeing is perhaps partly a reaction to that rebuttal. Russia's long-term territorial ambitions are to regain much of the land that they gave away, so they really don't want NATO troops getting in the way. Also, Finland is vulnerable, having a long land border with Russia and not being in NATO currently, but wishing to join. Russia did try to invade Finland just after the start of WWII, but got pushed back, so they do have 'form' in Scandinavia.   

[gerblod]

3 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Before Christmas, when we were all getting obsessed with the PM's office parties, the Russians where trying to get NATO to withdraw to its pre-1997 position. That is, before Poland, the 3 Baltic States and the Balkan countries joined the organisation. I don't remember it being referred to on FT at all, and yet it may have been a far bigger story in the scheme of things. The Russian demand was immediately rejected, not surprisingly. So what we're now seeing is perhaps partly a reaction to that rebuttal. Russia's long-term territorial ambitions are to regain much of the land that they gave away, so they really don't want NATO troops getting in the way. Also, Finland is vulnerable, having a long land border with Russia and not being in NATO currently, but wishing to join. Russia did try to invade Finland just after the start of WWII, but got pushed back, so they do have 'form' in Scandinavia.   

He's akin to a series of imperialists who've been more interested in grabbing land than improving Russian society. I used to think that, after WW2, Russia/USSR were fearful of being attacked by 'the West', and formed the Warsaw Pact for that reason, but I was naive, they had form in Poland in 1939, when Stalin and Hitler divided the country up between each other. 

[STEVIE B]

3 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

The younger Russians who are familiar with the internet and how to access a broader range of news, then sure, but for those less familiar or aware of such opportunities, then you believe what you have been shown, because you have always seen it as thus. 

 

When I was a kid there were 3 TV channels only (Expecting to trumped by other old farts) and what you saw was all that was available, and you therefore consumed it with an inherent level of trust

I suspect Russia is limiting access to everything on the internet, as China does. 

I could be wrong but it would make sense. 

[SpacedX]

The GRU are the best in the world at cyberwarfare. They have the capacity to turn the lights out on Ukraine and completely shut down the internet - just as the military has the firepower to raze the country to the ground. The fact this hasn't happened and the lack of a full scale bombing campaign I guess owes much to infrastructure that Russia wish to preserve in order to occupy and control. 

[MPH]

11 minutes ago, Line-X said:

The GRU are the best in the world at cyberwarfare. They have the capacity to turn the lights out on Ukraine and completely shut down the internet - just as the military has the firepower to raze the country to the ground. The fact this hasn't happened and the lack of a full scale bombing campaign I guess owes much to infrastructure that Russia wish to preserve in order to occupy and control. 

 

it was interesting to see an interview a couple of days ago by Anonymous who declared cyber war on the Russian government. They also explained that many of their members were within Russia. I really don’t know how ‘ advanced’ their knowledge is? And just what sort of effect  they would have… they could at least divert some of the GRU’s attention 

[blabyboy]

21 minutes ago, Line-X said:

The GRU are the best in the world at cyberwarfare. They have the capacity to turn the lights out on Ukraine and completely shut down the internet - just as the military has the firepower to raze the country to the ground. The fact this hasn't happened and the lack of a full scale bombing campaign I guess owes much to infrastructure that Russia wish to preserve in order to occupy and control. 

Is that just a reaction to the cyberwarfare machine itself? Are they really better than the NSA and Project Equation? Just wondering what your source is for that statement?

[ClaphamFox]

I was listening to the radio while driving a short time ago. World at One on R4 had a former Putin foreign policy advisor on. He's against the war and thinks Putin has made a huge miscalculation. However, he said that the only way that Putin will contemplate withdrawing Russian troops is if he can claim a victory of some sort. If it looks like Russia has been defeated, Putin will be finished domestically, which is unthinkable to him. So the only way he'll pull the troops back will be if he's offered something - say, an agrement that Ukraine can join the EU but not NATO - that will enable him to claim victory. The former advisor said he understood why such a deal would be very unpopular in the west because it would be rewarding aggression, but he said it's the only way Putin will voluntarily end this war.

 

Immediately after this, a Ukranian MP was on who flatly rejected the suggestion of any compromise with Russia. She said they'd prefer to fight to the death rather than do any kind of deal.

Edited 2 March 2022 by ClaphamFox

[blabyboy]

52 minutes ago, gerblod said:

The climate change issue has precedence over any other.

What we're seeing in this Russian attack on Ukraine is huge environmental damage - to lose sight of that, to diminish it, is leaving aside one other crime which this warmonger is guilty of. If he decided to employ battlefield tactical nuclear devices to finish the takeover then the environmental damage will be exponentially huge - akin to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

I suspect, when the sanctions bite, his position will become untenable. An already impoverished population might finally have had enough of his reactionary nonsense and the functionaries around him might or will usher him out the back door.

London is the centre of Russian money laundering - so Johnson has a decision to make. Whether to prosecute the pursuit and consfication of this money. Easy if you're moral by nature and strong willed enough, but, as with Ukrainian refugees, he's fence-sitting. I suspect he identifies with wealthy Eastern - far and middle - oligarchs and princes who've funded his party in return for him and Cameron turning a blind eye to their activities.

I surmise we'll put our own wellbeing before the Ukraine's. For our environment we really need to emulate the Scandinavian countries and Germany in terms of environmental responsibility - in using less power rather than aspiring to ever more consumer activity. That might knock China back significantly, in its global business expansion.

Me, I'd take Zelensky as the leader of this country over the buffoon doing PM impressions. And where's Angela Merkel when she's needed. I'd feel far more reassured with her around.

 

She is massive Russiophile and was part of the appeasement of Putin when in power. It is perhaps fortunate that she is no longer in power as I doubt Germany would have been so compliant with SWIFT and other sanctions.

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

I was listening to the radio while driving a short time ago. World at One on R4 had a former Putin foreign policy advisor on. He's against the war and thinks Putin has made a huge miscalculation. However, he said that the only way that Putin will contemplate withdrawing Russian troops is if he can claim a victory of some sort. If it looked like Russia has been defeated, Putin would be finished domestically, which is unthinkable to him. So the only way he'll pull the troops back will be if he's offered something - say, an agrement that Ukraine can join the EU but not NATO. The former advisor said he understood why such a deal would be very unpopular in the west because it would be rewarding aggression, but he said it's the only way Putin will voluntarily end this war.

 

Immediately after this, a Ukranian MP was on who flatly rejected the suggestion of any compromise with Russia. She said they'd prefer to fight to the death rather than do any kind of deal.

unfortunately, the russian guy is correct and the ukrainian lady is emmotionally immersed (unsurprisingly) in the war. 

 

i assume that these things are currently being discussed behind the scenes and zelensky will be more of a pragmatist than his public persona currently shows. 

[CosbehFox]

The point about NATO is interesting and if you read into Montenegro with the attempt by two Russian agents to kill its president, it’s something which pre-occupies Russia a lot.
 

What I don’t get though is I don’t see NATO ever fighting against Russia. I guess it’s the level of defence NATO can provide to countries that would halt Russia politically or militarily overwhelming their targets 

 

Happy for someone to correct me here 

Edited 2 March 2022 by Cardiff_Fox

[CosbehFox]

3 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

I was listening to the radio while driving a short time ago. World at One on R4 had a former Putin foreign policy advisor on. He's against the war and thinks Putin has made a huge miscalculation. However, he said that the only way that Putin will contemplate withdrawing Russian troops is if he can claim a victory of some sort. If it looks like Russia has been defeated, Putin will be finished domestically, which is unthinkable to him. So the only way he'll pull the troops back will be if he's offered something - say, an agrement that Ukraine can join the EU but not NATO - that will enable him to claim victory. The former advisor said he understood why such a deal would be very unpopular in the west because it would be rewarding aggression, but he said it's the only way Putin will voluntarily end this war.

 

Immediately after this, a Ukranian MP was on who flatly rejected the suggestion of any compromise with Russia. She said they'd prefer to fight to the death rather than do any kind of deal.

My prediction (ugh that’s horrible isn’t it?)is that Russia stop with the capture of the land in and around the Black Sea or possible push further into halving Ukraine. They’ve always wanted access to those ports and a successful invasion of that area will see them gain a land bridge as well. Those areas have a huge Russian population, so it can be painted as Russia freeing their fellow countrymen. 

 

58 minutes ago, gerblod said:

And where's Angela Merkel when she's needed. I'd feel far more reassured with her around.

 

She’s no longer the Chancellor of Germany. Germany are compromised by the reliance on gas. They’ve had to 360 on their foreign policy 

[SpacedX]

6 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

Is that just a reaction to the cyberwarfare machine itself? Are they really better than the NSA and Project Equation? Just wondering what your source is for that statement?

No direct source because it is so difficult to equate, rather the prevailing view of cyber analysts given the extensive history of cyber attacks. There is a huge volume of literature suggesting that Russia has surpassed the USA’s cyber warfare capabilities and concerningly, have been mapping and surveying critical western infrastructure for years and may have already implanted the tools to impact these services.

[LiberalFox]

If Russia could take out whatever with cyber attacks then surely they would be doing that rather than firing missiles at TV towers? 

[WigstonWanderer]

5 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

The younger Russians who are familiar with the internet and how to access a broader range of news, then sure, but for those less familiar or aware of such opportunities, then you believe what you have been shown, because you have always seen it as thus. 

 

When I was a kid there were 3 TV channels only (Expecting to trumped by other old farts) and what you saw was all that was available, and you therefore consumed it with an inherent level of trust

We used to dream of having 3 channels! We had 2 channels in black and white, and our telly would only show white.

[Dahnsouff]

3 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

We used to dream of having 3 channels! We had 2 channels in black and white, and our telly would only show white.

See! I knew some older fart would turn up with this argument  

[SpacedX]

23 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

If Russia could take out whatever with cyber attacks then surely they would be doing that rather than firing missiles at TV towers? 

There's no doubt that they can cause significant interruption - and not simply to the internet. Power supply too. 

 

Worth reading some of the current theories surrounding why they haven't deployed this. Apparently it is tricky though for an invading power to shut down an entire decentralised commercial telecoms infrastructure, particularly if mobile networks and internet service providers are not complicit. A targeted Russian hack or a denial of service attack could disrupt Ukrainian communications infrastructure but would at present be relatively easy to reconfigure. 

Edited 2 March 2022 by Line-X

[Guest MarshallForEngland]

This 2015 lecture has started trending again due to recent events and it really is worth a watch. I haven't seen a better breakdown of the recent history of that region. It also contains some astonishingly accurate predictions. The situation is very complicated there is a lot more to it than some people might expect.

 

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

Are Anonymous actually doing tangible damage to Russia at the moment? 

[The Year Of The Fox]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10568725/We-sent-cannon-fodder-killing-peaceful-people-Weeping-Russian-POWs.html
 

 

Clearly staged phone calls, but good for the Russian public to hear what’s going on

[Guest Col city fan]

3 hours ago, Zear0 said:

I didn't know that about Hitler.  Such a weird thing for them to do.

After the market crash of (c1931?) Hitler was hugely popularly for years with the Germans particularly and across the globe. The nazis literally turned the German economy around from the Deutschmark being worth literally nothing to the nation financially thriving. If you look on YouTube you’ll see photos and Videos of German couples holidaying and thanking ‘The Fuhrer’ for their new-found wealth.

The Nazi’s of course built the Autobahns (so much better than the British motorways), new homes, tons of ‘modern’ buildings… the list went on

And very few national Germans were against the idea of Liebensraum. The German occupation of Czechoslovakia was welcomed with open arms by the majority. 
The Neuremberg rallies epitomised this probably best. Hitler was utterly adored by huge swathes of the natural German population.

 

This is probably where the biggest similarity lies with the current war in The Ukraine and the ‘perfect storm’ that gave rise to WW2. 
Like Hitler, it’s clear that Putin has been planning this for years, yet ‘the World’ has turned a blind eye to it AND has actually popularised Putin to some extent.

Just like it did with Adolf

I can’t emphasise this point enough. This apparent hypocrisy of the massive outcry of what Putin has now done (and the outcry quite rightly), whilst for a long time knowing he was going to do it. There are HUGE parallels here with Hitler.

Edited 2 March 2022 by Col city fan

[ClaphamFox]

34 minutes ago, MarshallForEngland said:

This 2015 lecture has started trending again due to recent events and it really is worth a watch. I haven't seen a better breakdown of the recent history of that region. It also contains some astonishingly accurate predictions. The situation is very complicated there is a lot more to it than some people might expect.

 

 

Mearsheimer's views are fairly well known. He is of the 'NATO is to blame for everything' school - ie, he believes that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to determine its own political direction and security arrangements, and should instead primarily concern itself with not upsetting Russia. Personally I favour the right of Ukraine to choose its own future rather than be forced to permanently genuflect to a violent, autocratic, thuggish neighbour, and I find it disturbing how many apparent liberals in the west seem so happy to throw Ukraine under a bus. But hey - that's just me...

Edited 2 March 2022 by ClaphamFox

[ARTY_FOX]

3 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

After the market crash of (c1931?) Hitler was hugely popularly for years with the Germans particularly and across the globe. The nazis literally turned the German economy around from the Deutschmark being worth literally nothing to the nation financially thriving. If you look on YouTube you’ll see photos and Videos of German couples holidaying and thanking ‘The Fuhrer’ for their new-found wealth.

The Nazi’s of course built the Autobahns (so much better than the British motorways), new homes, tons of ‘modern’ buildings… the list went on

And very few national Germans were against the idea of Liebensraum. The German occupation of Czechoslovakia was welcomed with open arms by the majority. 
The Neuremberg rallies epitomised this probably best. Hitler was utterly adored by huge swathes of the natural German population.

 

 

The nazi party was thought to be days from folding before the wall street crash of 1929. Hitler had been predicting it and most thought he was an idiot and a thug until it actually happened. Then he was the messiah. 

[Guest Col city fan]

Just now, ARTY_FOX said:

The nazi party was thought to be days from folding before the wall street crash of 1929. Hitler had been predicting it and most thought he was an idiot and a thug until it actually happened. Then he was the messiah. 

1929… cheers.. and you’re spot on 

[casablancas]

Ok. So they are pursuing nuclear plants … that’s ****ing terrifying. Let’s hope they’re sensible enough to actually think but they’ve been known to attack sewage and chemical plants in Syria. 
 

and secondly which now feels less important. 
 

 

they really have United the world. 

[Mike Oxlong]

14 minutes ago, Col city fan said:

After the market crash of (c1931?) Hitler was hugely popularly for years with the Germans particularly and across the globe. The nazis literally turned the German economy around from the Deutschmark being worth literally nothing to the nation financially thriving. If you look on YouTube you’ll see photos and Videos of German couples holidaying and thanking ‘The Fuhrer’ for their new-found wealth.

The Nazi’s of course built the Autobahns (so much better than the British motorways), new homes, tons of ‘modern’ buildings… the list went on

And very few national Germans were against the idea of Liebensraum. The German occupation of Czechoslovakia was welcomed with open arms by the majority. 
The Neuremberg rallies epitomised this probably best. Hitler was utterly adored by huge swathes of the natural German population.

 

This is probably where the biggest similarity lies with the current war in The Ukraine and the ‘perfect storm’ that gave rise to WW2. 
Like Hitler, it’s clear that Putin has been planning this for years, yet ‘the World’ has turned a blind eye to it AND has actually popularised Putin to some extent.

Just like it did with Adolf

I can’t emphasise this point enough. This apparent hypocrisy of the massive outcry of what Putin has now done (and the outcry quite rightly), whilst for a long time knowing he was going to do it. There are HUGE parallels here with Hitler.

Didn’t realise you had such an interest in Nazi history Col

 

You don’t have a back room like this I hope