Ukraine

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, Countryfox said:

The war has not been going on for very long and the Ukrainian resistance is amazing ..  but there will only be one outcome. Then we will get a very long period of resistance that Putin will try and crush in a brutal manner.  How that pans out will be a fork in the road moment. 
 

In the meantime we will have a refugee crisis to resolve as up to 5 million people will be displaced. 

The outcome which suits both parties best is probably independence for the two Russian backed regions in the Donbass, and some kind of peacekeeping force.  Russia gets to claim victory, and Ukraine gets pretty much back to where its been since 2014.  If Putin doesn't get to claim at PR victory this could get very messy.  

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

So the five member nations that voted against UN resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine, were obviously Russia and Belarus. Unsurprisingly, Syria and the totalitarian states, North Korea and Eritrea.

So presumably China abstained

[Jon the Hat]

13 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

So presumably China abstained

And India etc

[Joe90lcfc]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

We are just watching the slow decline of Ukraine now. Just sitting, watching, waiting for death. How can we be so powerless? How can the world be so powerless to change this? I struggle to recognise the world we live in as even a remotely good place. What a horror show. 

Awful isn’t it, just does not sit right one bit, 

[Parafox]

22 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The outcome which suits both parties best is probably independence for the two Russian backed regions in the Donbass, and some kind of peacekeeping force.  Russia gets to claim victory, and Ukraine gets pretty much back to where its been since 2014.  If Putin doesn't get to claim at PR victory this could get very messy.  

If that's the case, why is Russia seemingly hellbent on destroying Kyiv and other major cities. There's likely to be very little left of Kyiv for Russia to capitalise on or claim victory over.  Ukraine can't go back. 

[Jon the Hat]

6 minutes ago, Joe90lcfc said:

Awful isn’t it, just does not sit right one bit, 

Least worse option.  It beats millions of dead if we push Putin into a corner and he presses the big red button.

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, Parafox said:

If that's the case, why is Russia seemingly hellbent on destroying Kyiv and other major cities. There's likely to be very little left of Kyiv for Russia to capitalise on or claim victory over.  Ukraine can't go back. 

They want Ukraine to come to the table in a weak position.

[Parafox]

25 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

So presumably China abstained

 

11 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

And India etc

Shi1t scared of Russia. They depend on them for so much. Both ways.

[Parafox]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

They want Ukraine to come to the table in a weak position.

I agree. But will that be the case given all the international resistance against Russia, including the neutral states?

Will Ukraine be weakened to the point of demilitarisation? I dought it 

[MPH]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

The outcome which suits both parties best is probably independence for the two Russian backed regions in the Donbass, and some kind of peacekeeping force.  Russia gets to claim victory, and Ukraine gets pretty much back to where its been since 2014.  If Putin doesn't get to claim at PR victory this could get very messy.  

 

This is going to be an extremely expensive war for Putin both financially and politically and  I can not fathom he would do that for a region he has already recognized  as being independent. If that truly was his aim all he had to do was move his massive army in to the Donbas in a similar way to how he did with Crimea. That would have set the Russian army into a defensive position and would have meant the Ukrainians would have had to attack which, unfortunately, they don’t have  the military  capabilities to do- that’s already been proven in that area. If they had the ability to attack effectively they would have done it by now without the blatant occupation of the Russian army we currently see. If Putin only wanted the Donbas region he could have left all the military power he is using in Ukraine just in that area and there would have been nothing the Ukraine could have done about it.
 

 

I think he wants to split the country in two. I Think he wants to link Kharkiv down to Mariupol with Crimea to give them port access for both trade and military reasons.  I think he’ll then  say he wants to create an independent nation that will then, amazingly, will request to join the Russian federation without a public vote. And I think he knows he can only do that when ‘negotiating’ from a position of strength against a weakened Ukraine that feels it’s fighting for its very existence.

 

 

NB i often here the argument that much of the Donbas and Crimea region are Russian sympathizers anyway but people would do well to remember that in the late 40s Russia removed everyone recognized as  Tatar ( ethnic group that were staunchly Ukranian loyalists) from the Crimea area after accusing them of being Nazi sympathizers and as recently as 2019 handed out over 1 million Russian passports  in the Donbas region ( nearly a quarter of the population of that area). Low and behold you  now  have areas that have a swell of ‘ Russian Loyalty’.

Edited 3 March 2022 by MPH

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, MPH said:

This is going to be an extremely expensive war for Putin both financially and politically and  I can not fathom he would do that for a region he has already recognized  as being independent. If that truly was his aim all he had to do was move his massive army in to the Donbas in a similar way to how he did with Crimea. That would have set the Russian army into a defensive position and would have meant the Ukrainians would have had to attack which, unfortunately, they don’t have  the military  capabilities to do- that’s already been proven in that area. If they had the ability to attack effectively they would have done it by now without the blatant occupation of the Russian army we currently see. If Putin only wanted the Donbas region he could have left all the military power he is using in Ukraine just in that area and there would have been nothing the Ukraine could have done about it.
 

I think he wants to split the country in two. I Think he wants to link Kharkiv down to Mariupol with Crimea to give them port access for both trade and military reasons.  I think he’ll then  say he wants to create an independent nation that will then, amazingly, will request to join the Russian federation without a public vote. And I think he knows he can only do that when ‘negotiating’ from a position of strength against a weakened Ukraine that feels it’s fighting for its very existence.

 

NB i often here the argument that much of the Donbas and Crimea region are Russian sympathizers anyway but people would do well to remember that in the late 40s Russia removed everyone recognized as  Tatar ( ethnic group that were staunchly Ukranian loyalists) from the Crimea area after accusing them of being Nazi sympathizers and as recently as 2019 handed out over 1 million Russian passports  in the Donbas region ( nearly a quarter of the population of that area). Low and behold you  now  have areas that have a swell of ‘ Russian Loyalty’.

I suppose I am leaning towards the minimum he could sell to the Russian people as a success, given he can pretty much lie about everything.  He will not be allowed to hold Ukraine and end the sanctions.

[gerblod]

18 hours ago, blabyboy said:

She is massive Russiophile and was part of the appeasement of Putin when in power. It is perhaps fortunate that she is no longer in power as I doubt Germany would have been so compliant with SWIFT and other sanctions.

Can you back up your statement with hard proof that she appeased Putin?

For me your "appeasement" is more accurately reflected as statesmanship. The US, UK and France didn't actively act to redress the annexation of the Crimea, so why pick up on her leadership in particular?

 

Various UK governments have allowed dubious Russians the freedom of London's financial markets in which to launder vast amounts of money. For me that's morally far worse than attempting to retain a working relationship with one of the most dangerous states on the globe.

 

For forty-five years West Germany lived under the threat of becoming the battlefield where NATO and the USSR would fight out the land component of WW3. Its successive governments were well aware of the carnage inflicted on the German people in their advance on Berlin in 1945. Just as Putin now is prepared to destroy the Ukraine's infrastructure, he would have cheerfully done the same to Germany (and Poland et al).

Germany is not in the same political/economic situation as the UK. It has closer trading links and a dependency on Russian fuel. I suspect Merkel was balancing the needs of the German people by not provoking Putin. That's not appeasement - it's diplomacy.

 

 

[gerblod]

18 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

She’s no longer the Chancellor of Germany. Germany are compromised by the reliance on gas. They’ve had to 360 on their foreign policy 

I'm well aware of the first situation and have been since she announced her retirement.

 

Of the second issue, reliance on gas, the German government have taken difficult decisions which will present challenges to the German people and their economy and hence their standard of living.

[yorkie1999]

10 hours ago, when_you're_smiling said:

They’re not ‘commies’. Russia hasn’t been communist for decades. It’s a dictatorship (effectively).

Er, ok.

[David Hankey]

China are not helping in all of this. They say Russia doesn't want a "threat" on their borders - from whom?!!

 

Ukraine will not invade Russia. NATO will not invade Russia, they are a peace-keeping organisation.

 

But Russia are quite at ease to invade Ukraine with all their military might. 

 

So, the mind games continue while innocent victim numbers rise.

[Happy Fox]

Children being put in cells in Russia for putting flowers outside of the Ukrainian embassy what the f**k?  

Edited 3 March 2022 by Happy Fox

[Guesty]

This is what's being shown to school children tomorrow. 

 

 

But, good that there are people like this there. Hopefully discontent grows. Some brave people.

 

 

[LiberalFox]

Would Russia be okay with independence for the separatist states, recognition of Crimea as Russian in return for Ukraine being in the EU and NATO?

[SemperEadem]

5 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Would Russia be okay with independence for the separatist states, recognition of Crimea as Russian in return for Ukraine being in the EU and NATO?

I doubt it. Crimea alone would only give them access to half of Ukraine's oil.

[Carl the Llama]

5 minutes ago, Guesty said:

This is what's being shown to school children tomorrow. 

 

 

But, good that there are people like this there. Hopefully discontent grows. Some brave people.

 

 

So that video was apparently (and I guess unsurprisingly) incredibly weird.

I wish the hysterical masses hadn't overused the words "Orwellian" and "1984" so much in recent times so it would actually have impact using them here.

[yorkie1999]

If Abramavich is to sell Chelsea and donate the net profit to Ukraine war victims, the west need to collectivly buy it for 50 billion.

[ALC Fox]

1 hour ago, Guesty said:

This is what's being shown to school children tomorrow. 

 

 

But, good that there are people like this there. Hopefully discontent grows. Some brave people.

 

 

There are some brave souls at those protests. Massive respect to them.

 

There's also a video on The Guardian website of crowds of Ukrainian civilians blocking Russian soldiers from accessing Zaporizhzhia, which is apparently the largest nuclear plant in Europe. I'm in awe.

Edited 3 March 2022 by ALC Fox

[Fish]

11 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

If Abramavich is to sell Chelsea and donate the net profit to Ukraine war victims, the west need to collectivly buy it for 50 billion.

If Chelsea were to be taken off him , then uk can sort from there. Very generous mr A. Thank you and goodbye.

Edited 3 March 2022 by Fish

[SpacedX]

6 hours ago, Guesty said:

This is what's being shown to school children tomorrow. 

 

 

But, good that there are people like this there. Hopefully discontent grows. Some brave people.

 

 

"A statement on the Ministry's Facebook page said that children will also learn how to distinguish the truth from lies in the huge stream of information, photos and videos that are flooding the internet today"

 

And meanwhile the Russian troll farms continue to harvest the ignorant and the impressionable throughout the world. 

As the brutality and horror of Moscow’s invasion, sorry, 'military operation' has intensified, the notion of targeting oil and gas exports for sanctions is no longer off the table - even though it will damage western economies in the process. Oil prices could conceivably soar to $140 - 150 a barrel. An industry analyst on Radio 4 was saying this morning that some of the biggest buyers of Russian crude have already cancelled shipments and orders as companies from banks, to insurers, to shippers retreat from Russian business. Roughly 70% of Russian crude is apparently “struggling to find a buyer”. Despite the U.S. and its allies agreeing last Tuesday to release 60 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, prices continue to rocket and there's not a great deal that Biden can do about gasoline prices - there are precious few levers.

 

Cletus will be spitting tobacco in his TV dinner and furious with the darn 'libtards'/'elites' when he heads out from the trailer park to the gas station to fill up his four litre truck only to discover that it's risen to $5 at the pump. Well, he voted Trump in the last election anyway, and his second cousin Floyd and his Uncle Brody/(Dad) proudly stormed the Capitol last year so that's not the concern - the danger lies with the marginal voters that could tip the balance. Rising gasoline prices combined with inflation could cause a dangerous reactionary swing in the US to the right or far-right, which is terrifying given some of the absolute lunatics eagerly waiting in the wings like Gosar and Cruz.

 

Putin knows all this and will continue to manufacture and exploit division in America and across Europe - there is so much polarisation in the world, the near unified condemnation and the mass sanctions in response to this invasion is at least reassuring as is the noble and courageous stand by the Ukrainian people. Governing Ukraine and the years of insurgency that will follow will be hugely costly to Putin's regime and the Russian people, but beyond that, we are justifiably asking questions such as "where will he stop" and "how far will he go"? If America were ever to unilaterally withdraw from NATO as Trump threatened to do due to disproportionate spending, that's anyone's guess. It couldn't be achieved by executive power, only the approval of Congress. But if it happened, for Russia to steamroller Europe I believe would then rely on the tactical use of a nuclear weapon against a major European city which many analysts are adamant - from the intelligence gathered - that such a scenario has been tabled in the Kremlin war room briefings. 

 

As I suggested yesterday, although the bigger threat to our survival - the global crisis of climate change may for now be drowned out by and lost in the fog of war, the invasion of Ukraine could accelerate peak oil. It may also inadvertently catalyse the move away from our dependency on fossil fuels and hasten the development of renewables/green energy. 

Edited 3 March 2022 by Line-X

[The Fox Covert]

21 hours ago, STEVIE B said:

I suspect Russia is limiting access to everything on the internet, as China does. 

I could be wrong but it would make sense. 

As far as I can see Instagram and Facebook are still accessible in Russia. I have quite a few Russians on my Instagram account and one of them in particular regularly visits each time I post. Internet social media has quietly become a game-changer for Russians who are very curious about the West. I tend to keep politics on my personal Facebook account rather than Instagram, which I use to cultivate a following for my art. But common ownership makes it easy to follow from one platform to the other. I expect they rather like it that I and the rest of us are free to say whatever we like about the likes of Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel without the fear of a bunch of uniformed thugs bursting through the front door in the middle of the night and getting bundled into the boot of a black Volga and left to rot in a grim Lubyanka god knows where.