The Run In...

[Number 6]

20 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

If any of you lot think Dean Smith won't have these lot absolutely revved to take Wolves apart in 10 days time then you're very silly. Whatever happens this weekend, I think we'll be in for a performance of the ages against an old enemy for Deano.

I'm actually buzzing for this one already. Haven't been this enthused about a home game for a while.

 

[MPH]

19 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

If any of you lot think Dean Smith won't have these lot absolutely revved to take Wolves apart in 10 days time then you're very silly. Whatever happens this weekend, I think we'll be in for a performance of the ages against an old enemy for Deano.

 

im actually partially fearful of us having a really good run in! If we do, there will be those pushing for him to get the gig full time and I think we might need to aim a bit higher. I’ll settle for safety with a game spare

[ARM1968]

He’s not a terrible manager and he’s got good backup in Shakey and Shagger. Worse things at sea. 

[Dan]

Man City (A) - 0

Wolves (H) - 3

Leeds (A) - 1

Everton (H) - 1

Fulham (A) - 3

Liverpool (H) - 3

Newcastle (A) - 0

West Ham (H) - 3

 

I'm gonna go optimistic. **** it.

[Dan]

Would piss myself if he won all four home games. He ends up getting as many points in 4 games as Rodgers/SAS got in 15.

[SheppyFox]

On 11/04/2023 at 02:26, chapero82 said:

This is my final league table don't ask me how I got it to this  

 

It shows you how half asleep I still am, when I look at this and think how do they all have 38 points? 🤦‍♂️ 

[Nalis]

I did a recent predictor and have us staying up by goal difference ahead of Leeds on 32 points. Doubt 17th will be on that low a points total.

[PhillippaT]

7 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

Man City (A) - 0

Wolves (H) - 3

Leeds (A) - 1

Everton (H) - 1

Fulham (A) - 3

Liverpool (H) - 3

Newcastle (A) - 0

West Ham (H) - 3

 

I'm gonna go optimistic. **** it.

Super Dan is optimistic, hopes Wolves are atrocious - even the very sound of it is something quite precocious. 

[Happy Fox]

We will stay up now but it’s going to go down to the last game of the season. But I think we will do it just whether it’s on goal difference.

[Clever Fox]

I think a few of the injured players will suddenly be available now that Rogers is gone, Which will improve our chances of staying up.

[smallpauldj]

I think we need West Ham to pick up points and be safe for the final game so their on the beach.

[Harry96]

Just have to win our home games hopefully 

[Nobbyburton]

8 minutes ago, smallpauldj said:

I think we need West Ham to pick up points and be safe for the final game so their on the beach.

Not sure, I think we should be looking at West Ham as a team to catch and keep within 3 points for the last day. They have some really tricky games left and one eye on the ECL. Annoying they got something from Fulham the other day but the week before they were getting spanked 5-1 by Newcastle, I'm not sure they are out of this. 

 

They still have to play Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and United, you never know. 

 

[Ricey]

I think we need at least 36 points. 4 wins, or 3 wins and a couple of draws.

 

I just can't see it personally. If we had made this change after Brentford and before the international break I'd have been more than confident that we'd get most of those 11 points in the 3 matches that followed, but as it is I think we'll run out of games.

[FoxOnWheels]

5 minutes ago, Ricey said:

I think we need at least 36 points. 4 wins, or 3 wins and a couple of draws.

 

I just can't see it personally. If we had made this change after Brentford and before the international break I'd have been more than confident that we'd get most of those 11 points in the 3 matches that followed, but as it is I think we'll run out of games.

Not getting these in before the last 2 game will be what will cost us, we are likely going to have to hope are goal difference keeps us up if we can start getting points but I just can’t see Everton going down

[Ricey]

Just now, FoxOnWheels said:

Not getting these in before the last 2 game will be what will cost us, we are likely going to have to hope are goal difference keeps us up if we can start getting points but I just can’t see Everton going down

We nearly got a point at Palace despite being awful, we nearly got a point against Villa despite a weird game plan and Bournemouth were crap on Saturday, just not as crap as us. I honestly think we'd have got at the very least 5 points in those matches if we'd made the change earlier. I know it's hypothetical, but it's also infuriating that the club have left things this late.

[FoxOnWheels]

5 minutes ago, Ricey said:

We nearly got a point at Palace despite being awful, we nearly got a point against Villa despite a weird game plan and Bournemouth were crap on Saturday, just not as crap as us. I honestly think we'd have got at the very least 5 points in those matches if we'd made the change earlier. I know it's hypothetical, but it's also infuriating that the club have left things this late.

Agree, and if we were to have 5 extra points and have this new management team in place I wouldn’t really be fearing relegation. Been a hugely bad business decision from the people who run the club

[zdx]

Given I think we need 12 points from the last 8 games (37 points total), I looked at the PL form table for the last 8 games. Out of each team's last 8 games, 9 teams have got 12+ points (Arsenal, Man City, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Spurs, Man U, Liverpool, Brighton and Bournemouth). West Ham are 10th with 11 points.

 

So, realistically, we need Dean Smith to make us into a top half PL team in these last 8 and we'll probably just be OK. We're up against it, but it's certainly not impossible.

[Number 6]

This weekend is hugely significant too. Looks like there is a decent chance of the gap widening but if we could get away with it being 3 points rather than 5 then I think we'd have a much better shot (Fulham in terrible form though). 5 would start to look like a bit of a gap and would require more than 1 decent result to get out, can feel like you're stuck at that point. I think Newcastle and Man City and probably the only games pretty much written off as losses.

 

Edit:

Just been looking in to the run ins and due to so many teams being involved in the relegation battle there are several clashes between those in the scrap (Wolves the highest place team I am counting as involved). 

 

Leicester v Wolves

Bournemouth v West H

Southampton v Bournemouth

Leicester v Leeds

Leicester v Everton

Bournemouth v Leeds

Forest v Southampton

Wolves v Everton

West H v Leeds

Leicester v West Ham

Everton v Bournemouth

 

I had us going down but it would only take a reversal on a result against a rival (I had us losing at Leeds) and it would completely flip. I'm not convinced any of the teams in this group are safe either, so having said previously that West Ham being safe could benefit us on the final day, them being reachable itself would be huge. 

Edited 12 April 2023 by Number 6

[wardyfox86]

I hate it, but I just can't shake the idea that we lose the next 2 with Leeds and Everton both picking up points, leaving us stranded.

 

Then anything less than 7 points from Leeds, Everton, Fulham and we gone.

 

Thankfully I've come to terms with the idea of 2nd tier football next season, and with some of the players I think we could retain, we could have a good season.

[weller54]

With Forest, Southampton and Everton all losing this weekend it's given us a better chance of surviving....

The Wolves game is just massive!  I really think win this and we'll avoid relegation as it will kick us on.

A draw doesn't help it's shit or bust now!!

[bovril]

Relegation dogfights really are crap aren't they. I previously semi-agreed with the Pleat quote about fighting to go up/ win the league and fighting to avoid relegation are better for keeping the crowds coming in than being midtable, but seriously **** this. I can't deal with over a month of going over every permutation in my head and not only cheering for Leicester but also anybody playing the teams around us. 

[goody2028]

2 minutes ago, bovril said:

Relegation dogfights really are crap aren't they. I previously semi-agreed with the Pleat quote about fighting to go up/ win the league and fighting to avoid relegation are better for keeping the crowds coming in than being midtable, but seriously **** this. I can't deal with over a month of going over every permutation in my head and not only cheering for Leicester but also anybody playing the teams around us. 

Brilliant to watch - horrible to be in.  This would be one to the best relegation seasons to watch from a distance but being in it, it’s fvcking horrible. 

[HitchinFox]

Starting point: 25 points

 

Man City (A) - 0

Wolves (H) - 0 

Leeds (A) - 0 

Everton (H) - 1

Fulham (A) - 0 

Liverpool (H) - 0 

Newcastle (A) - 0 

West Ham (H) - 3

 

Final points: 29

Will it be enough?  Probably not. 

I must qualify my answers - this is from someone who has followed us since 1980s. This just has the feel of a few previous relegation seasons. On each occasion, there was always hope - until the mathematical death knell.

The 2001-2002 with Dave Bassett in particular springs to mind. Looking back, we went four months without a win. But it didn't feel like that, for some reason, back then. Mainly because the relative success we had under MoN in the six or so years leading up to that season. Like now, there was the "I think we have enough to stay up" mentality. 

I'm not being negative. Just realistic. I think we're done. 

[Wasyls Pec Deck]

There’s life in the old dog yet, though it’s going to be very very tight. What we have in our favour I think is an appointment that will hopefully mean a lift, (unlike Forest, Everton and Leeds form), and who’ve done it before, favourable fixtures and more quality than teams around us - though that is debatable as it’s this ‘quality’ that’s got us where we are.

 

One of the lessons I hope Smith learnt against Man City would be to start Iheanacho, I truly think then we have a decent chance. 
 

These next four fixtures will determine our season though imo. Wolves, Leeds, Everton and Fulham - let’s be avin’ ya!