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Sly

The Championship Thread 2023/2024

By Sly, in Leicester City Forum

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, RearsbyFox said:

Ipswich have the added incentive of knowing that if they don't get promoted their manager might well be in the Premier League next season with a bigger club. 

That incentive,does not make a teams quality, Ramsey & Robson stayed their first

promoted seasons…

 

A squads quality can’t automatic upgrade itself because a manager is leaving..

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I’d rather play mid table teams with nothing to play for than teams fighting relegation in those final few games. The majority of our final games involve those sorts of teams which will suit us.

I think the nature of the league is there are very few if any dead rubbers in the run in

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LCFCJohn

LCFCJohn

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

I think the nature of the league is there are very few if any dead rubbers in the run in

I not sure about this. There’s already a group of sides in mid table 10 points off the play off places and a bit more clear of the bottom 3 so you’d imagine that over the coming games, it will become clearly that say Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday are down and more teams will find themselves too far off the play off race. If anything it looks like it could be that sort of season at the moment with the top 4 so far ahead and bottom 2 cut off.

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Or even brighter? @Ricey

 

image.png.4cc2ba08d33c2eb76a9367faa8ea7e8e.png

The problem with graphs like this and trying to judge who has the hardest fixtures is it changes so quickly, if a team wins or loses a couple on the bounce they will change quartile.
Also last game of the season, would you rather face 4th quartile Huddersfield who need a win to stay up, or mid table Blackburn thinking about their summer holidays?

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Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted

By my reckoning Cardiff, Watford and Bristol City will be the best games to have as we move into the final 10 games.

They are completely safe, no chance of going down and more than 10 points adrift of the play offs.

They are no longer plying for anything other than pride.

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Mickyblueeyes

Mickyblueeyes

Posted
Posted

Our next 5 are without doubt our toughest. We get through that with a good number of points and we could very well be there. 

 

The thing is, the chasers seem to change every week. I'd say two weeks ago if you had said Southampton would lose two of their next three, we would've been thinking we are very well up. Ipswich looked out of it. It's going to keep on changing but as long as we remain the only constant, its the only thing that matters. 

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Chelmofox

Chelmofox

Posted
Posted

The 6 game form table is interesting in the grand scheme of things:

 

image.png.7e7d79c1d094ee42cd0a66631d6caa7e.png

 

Hull are having a superb run as are Preston , Norwich and QPR. But in this league, the form of mid tier sides changes quickly so wouldn't read too much into it.

 

We are still up there - clinging on. 

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LCFCJohn

LCFCJohn

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

By my reckoning Cardiff, Watford and Bristol City will be the best games to have as we move into the final 10 games.

They are completely safe, no chance of going down and more than 10 points adrift of the play offs.

They are no longer plying for anything other than pride.

Ours could look favourable from this point of view. Even West Brom third to last came, will they be routed in 5th place, unable to move higher or lower and be looking to avoid injuries/suspensions for the play offs? Likewise, Bristol City, Millwall, Plymouth and Blackburn likely to have nothing to play for. I also expect Preston to have fallen away from top 6 by the time we play. 

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Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

The problem with graphs like this and trying to judge who has the hardest fixtures is it changes so quickly, if a team wins or loses a couple on the bounce they will change quartile.
Also last game of the season, would you rather face 4th quartile Huddersfield who need a win to stay up, or mid table Blackburn thinking about their summer holidays?

Hence why I update it...

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Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, bovril said:

I'm never sure how true this really is because if we do lose a 9 point advantage you'd think there would've been a significant swing anyway.

No way you can predict it - but say we lost the 4 games to blow the 9 point advantage and all remained equal between us and Ipswich (if we blow more games than that, GD won't be a factor), that's only four games where we'd have negative GD, the rest would be either equal or +GD, meaning we'd have far more chance of actually increasing our GD than decreasing it.

 

The only way it might be negated is if we lose those four games extremely heavily and fail to win any game by more than a small amount.  It would also require Ipswich to have numerous consistently big wins.  Again, the rest of the results remaining equal, we'd have to lose 4 games by 3 goals taking our GD down to +31 (this has not happened once this season), Ipswich would need to win four games by  3 goals. (they have only won two games all season by such  margin).  If it's that close that it comes down to GD, chances are we'll still have a superior figure.

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bovril

bovril

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lillehamring said:

No way you can predict it - but say we lost the 4 games to blow the 9 point advantage and all remained equal between us and Ipswich (if we blow more games than that, GD won't be a factor), that's only four games where we'd have negative GD, the rest would be either equal or +GD, meaning we'd have far more chance of actually increasing our GD than decreasing it.

 

The only way it might be negated is if we lose those four games extremely heavily and fail to win any game by more than a small amount.  It would also require Ipswich to have numerous consistently big wins.  Again, the rest of the results remaining equal, we'd have to lose 4 games by 3 goals taking our GD down to +31 (this has not happened once this season), Ipswich would need to win four games by  3 goals. (they have only won two games all season by such  margin).  If it's that close that it comes down to GD, chances are we'll still have a superior figure.

Yeah after posting that I realized the difference between us and Ipswich is greater than I thought. But still I think GD can swing quicker than people realize.

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Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Does anybody else get hung up on the fact Burnley only lost 3 games last season and we're currently on 5 and will probably end up on 6/7? I know it probably doesn't mean a great deal in terms of translation to the PL as they've been woeful but....THREE games?!?! Pretty mad that!

You could simply argue that they didn't have to play leeds and southampton twice.

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Pliskin

Pliskin

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chelmofox said:

The 6 game form table is interesting in the grand scheme of things:

 

image.png.7e7d79c1d094ee42cd0a66631d6caa7e.png

 

Hull are having a superb run as are Preston , Norwich and QPR. But in this league, the form of mid tier sides changes quickly so wouldn't read too much into it.

 

We are still up there - clinging on. 

Hull are a surprise. 
 

I think we will lose to Leeds, Hull and West Brom, which will then pave the way for Leeds to eventually overtake us. 
 
I just don’t feel comfortable about us, and it sound insane considering our current position, but I just have this feeling we will drop off over the next few games and will end up scrapping for second. I hope I’m wrong, I really do but I can’t see us having the fight in us if it comes down to a slog. 
 

Southampton losing was huge, because if we beat them then that could mean they’re confined to the playoffs. 

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