What's in the news?

[Countryfox]

 

So ..  as the title says ...   what’s in the news ..

 

Well ...   a very interesting article about a massive black hole found in space ...     and just in case you weren’t sure what a black hole looks like ..   

 

 

[Izzy]

2 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

So ..  as the title says ...   what’s in the news ..

 

Well ...   a very interesting article about a massive black hole found in space ...     and just in case you weren’t sure what a black hole looks like ..   

 

 

That's a pretty impressive black hole I must say.

 

I imagined it would be more round then rectangular but hey ho 

[Countryfox]

2 minutes ago, Izzy said:

That's a pretty impressive black hole I must say.

 

I imagined it would be more round then rectangular but hey ho 

 Someone is actually paid to do this ...  

[Alf Bentley]

45 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

There is no such thing as Norway+ ffs, at least not without serious difficulty working it out. You can't be in EFTA and in a customs union with the EU, it's not currently compatible. Maybe it could be worked on, idk. EEA largely solves the Ireland problem anyway so the + isn't really necessary beyond adopting some of the customs code, which I suspect would be what officials would deem the Norway+ to be.

 

 

 

Just because there is currently no such thing as Norway+ does not mean that there can never be such a thing. There was no such thing as member states leaving the EU until Brexit.

 

There will be serious difficulty working out any potential solution to this mess. In some cases, that difficulty will be practical, in others it will be political/democratic. One or other solution will eventually be chosen DESPITE involving serious difficulty.

 

I admit that "Norway+" is, by necessity, a vague term. By necessity (a) because I don't have detailed knowledge of EFTA, EU or trade/customs systems; and (b) because any such arrangement is unpredictable as it would have to be negotiated and agreed among multiple players, including UK political parties, EFTA, EU etc. 

 

Unlike most other potential solutions, there is at least some prospect of Norway+ winning majority support in parliament. In referring to Norway+ rather than just EEA/EFTA, I'm just being politically realistic given Labour's strong commitment to a Customs Union. Precisely what Customs arrangement that would involve I don't know - but EFTA itself (see below) do not seem to be as categorical as you are when you say that "you can't be in EFTA and in a customs union with the EU" - see the bit underlined in bold. I'm not suggesting that there'd be no difficulties with that. There'd also be other difficulties over freedom of movement, though not insurmountable ones from a Left perspective (it would cause a major split in the Tory party, but I'd view that as a bonus!).

 

 http://www.efta.int/About-EFTA/Frequently-asked-questions-EFTA-EEA-EFTA-membership-and-Brexit-328676

If the UK remains in a customs union with the EU, could it still join EFTA?

Art. 56.3 of the EFTA Convention states that a new EFTA member state ‘shall apply to become a party to the free trade agreements between the Member States on the one hand and third states, unions of states or international organisations on the other.’ As a member of a customs union, a country acceding to EFTA could not comply with this obligation. EFTA membership does not preclude from entering into a customs arrangement with the EU [my emphasis]; existing EFTA countries govern their relation to the EU through different instruments.

[Countryfox]

And one last one before brexit gets back on track ...

 

Basically if you want to make your own vegan fish ..  scrape mould off the bathroom wall and wrap it in a pair of knickers ...  

 

How do they get away with it ? ....

 

 

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Izzy said:

That's a pretty impressive black hole I must say.

 

I imagined it would be more round then rectangular but hey ho 

Black holes are spherical, so the 3D kind of round.

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, MattP said:

That's pretty big news if they stick to it, it would mean the DUP couldn't turn the vote against May on the numbers we had last night.
 

 

It serves Lib Dem strategic interests, too. They can obviously see the prospect of Corbyn trying to carry on trying confidence votes for weeks. The Lib Dems refusing to support him will help Labour People's Vote supporters to pressure Corbyn to back a second referendum instead, if it's obvious that he has much less chance of getting an election.

 

The confidence vote figures certainly played to the DUP's sense of importance. If their 10 votes had gone against May, she'd have lost by one vote!

 

It seems like a massive game of "chicken" now. May has said that parliament will only vote on her Plan B on 29th January and seems to be making almost no changes to the deal that was voted down.

She presumably hopes that a few weeks sweating over the fear of No Deal or No Brexit will cause masses of MPs to switch to her deal.....while Corbyn is doing the same, but hoping they'll switch to supporting his no-confidence votes....and Cable hopes pressure from MPs and members will force Corbyn to go for a referendum, and that enough Tory Remainers will join them to make that a viable option.

 

Senior backbenchers may achieve something different through amendments to motions, but it sounds as if all the party leaderships are hunkering down, hoping that someone else blinks first. 

[gw_leics772]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

I know that many posters loathe Owen Jones, but I think this is a good article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/labour-pursue-better-brexit-deal-second-referendum-norway-plus

 

It offers a partial explanation of why Labour prefers the idea of an election and isn't too keen on a second referendum (though it glosses over Corbyn's own reasons).

 

It also makes a strong case for a Norway+ Brexit solution being feasible and a better option than a second referendum.

 

As it happens, I also think a Norway+ Soft Brexit is much more likely to be achieved than either an election or a referendum....

 

Of course, that would presumably leave the Tories in power post-Brexit - and possibly for a full parliament. All bets would then be off, though, as it's hard to predict the economic impact of Brexit or shifts in public opinion - or what would happen to the Tory party and Tory vote if the Hard Brexit crew were frustrated in this way. Plus, May would be gone, probably within a year....and Corbyn could be, too.

Thanks for this.

 

Its the first time ive bothered with the detail for a while, as, lets be honest, until those clowns in parliament get their act together, it really maked no difference what we want.

 

The article at least intrigued me to read a bit more, but i do deplore the political bias, trying to tell me why labour aren't so bad, because from what i have seen,  they really are.

 

I couldnt vote for any of the major parties if there was a general election.

 

Surprised at how little appetite there is for a swcond referendum behind all the noise suggesting it.

 

I expected to find myself, on reflection of where we are, favouring a Norway plus, but reading more, that sounds almost as bad as remain or mays deal.

(And i dont buy the rhetoric that by being in the eu, at least we will get a vote. We will he so revered that it will be us voting against every other country and losing in my (Probably not educated enough) opinion.

 

I used wiki which pretty much says it isn't possible but it must be, the amount it is talked about.

Anyone with a better link would be appreciated 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway-plus

 

But generally against it and cant see it being a good option

 

 

[Strokes]

41 minutes ago, MattP said:

That's pretty big news if they stick to it, it would mean the DUP couldn't turn the vote against May on the numbers we had last night.

As for Corbyn, he's reached a ridiculous stage now, I imagine he cares as much about Brexit policy as I do about Love Island, I doubt he's read the agreement or even cares what it says, I doubt he's even thought about Canada, Norway or the actual Customs Union instead of the fantasy Customs Union in his head where we have a say in the rules and regulations of it, he's not remotely bothered, the six tests were set up as he wanted the impossible and even if May had found a way to bring back something meeting all those he would have found a way to still vote it down.

TALK TO US
TALK TO US
TALK TO US
TALK TO US

TALK TO US
OK come and talk with us

(apply a condition that can't be met)
NOT TALKING TO YOU BOOOOOO TORIES.

If only we had evidence he had previously sat down with people without any conditions to talk because it was important to keep a dialogue open to show just how stupid his position is on this?

The government lost a vote by over 200 on it's flagship policy and faced a VONC in 48 hours and still JC managed to come out of the whole process looking like a bigger turd than May, god knows what he would be like if people actually made him the Prime Minister of the country.

Vince cable is only saying that to force Labour to back a second Referendum. The threat is emptier than Dianne Abbott’s head during an interview.

[Realist Guy In The Room]

22 minutes ago, gw_leics772 said:

Thanks for this.

 

Its the first time ive bothered with the detail for a while, as, lets be honest, until those clowns in parliament get their act together, it really maked no difference what we want.

 

The article at least intrigued me to read a bit more, but i do deplore the political bias, trying to tell me why labour aren't so bad, because from what i have seen,  they really are.

 

I couldnt vote for any of the major parties if there was a general election.

 

Surprised at how little appetite there is for a swcond referendum behind all the noise suggesting it.

 

I expected to find myself, on reflection of where we are, favouring a Norway plus, but reading more, that sounds almost as bad as remain or mays deal.

(And i dont buy the rhetoric that by being in the eu, at least we will get a vote. We will he so revered that it will be us voting against every other country and losing in my (Probably not educated enough) opinion.

 

I used wiki which pretty much says it isn't possible but it must be, the amount it is talked about.

Anyone with a better link would be appreciated 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway-plus

 

But generally against it and cant see it being a good option

 

 

To be honest, the resistance to this is the only bit of credit I can give to Parliament at the minute.  They know it’s a shit idea as the only way it settles the issue is if the result was at least 75% in favour of the winner which it wouldn’t be.

 

A 2nd vote buries the country even further.

[gw_leics772]

51 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

And one last one before brexit gets back on track ...

 

Basically if you want to make your own vegan fish ..  scrape mould off the bathroom wall and wrap it in a pair of knickers ...  

 

How do they get away with it ? ....

 

 

What paper do you read to find this shit??

 

I want to buy it

[Countryfox]

2 hours ago, Izzy said:

That's a pretty impressive black hole I must say.

 

I imagined it would be more round then rectangular but hey ho 

 

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Black holes are spherical, so the 3D kind of round.

 

Well perhaps the editor of The Sun just asked for a close up of the black hole ...   or perhaps the person writing the story was just ..   well, how can I put it ...   taking the piss ..   

[Countryfox]

1 hour ago, gw_leics772 said:

What paper do you read to find this shit??

 

I want to buy it

 

Here you go ..  my black hole story ..   with a bit of a bonus pic of Kelly Brook ...   and the clue in the top right corner.   

 

Could only ever ever be one paper ...    and I only buy it for the sport ..   

 

 

[Countryfox]

 

But getting back on track ..   brexit ...   we’re fooked ..

 

So ..  what’s going to happen ...  should we all have a guess ..

 

1. Renegotiate and it goes through 

2. Another referendum and we stay in

3. Leave with no deal

 

Or is there anything else??

 

Which is likely, which is best ?? ...   discuss.

[davieG]

37 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

But getting back on track ..   brexit ...   we’re fooked ..

 

So ..  what’s going to happen ...  should we all have a guess ..

 

1. Renegotiate and it goes through 

2. Another referendum and we stay in

3. Leave with no deal

 

Or is there anything else??

 

Which is likely, which is best ?? ...   discuss.

A General Election,

 

Corbyn wins by a landslide,

 

Tells the EU now give me what I want,

 

EU says sure, what do you want,

 

Corbyn says **** Knows what do you suggest would be good.

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Just because there is currently no such thing as Norway+ does not mean that there can never be such a thing. There was no such thing as member states leaving the EU until Brexit.

 

There will be serious difficulty working out any potential solution to this mess. In some cases, that difficulty will be practical, in others it will be political/democratic. One or other solution will eventually be chosen DESPITE involving serious difficulty.

 

I admit that "Norway+" is, by necessity, a vague term. By necessity (a) because I don't have detailed knowledge of EFTA, EU or trade/customs systems; and (b) because any such arrangement is unpredictable as it would have to be negotiated and agreed among multiple players, including UK political parties, EFTA, EU etc. 

 

Unlike most other potential solutions, there is at least some prospect of Norway+ winning majority support in parliament. In referring to Norway+ rather than just EEA/EFTA, I'm just being politically realistic given Labour's strong commitment to a Customs Union. Precisely what Customs arrangement that would involve I don't know - but EFTA itself (see below) do not seem to be as categorical as you are when you say that "you can't be in EFTA and in a customs union with the EU" - see the bit underlined in bold. I'm not suggesting that there'd be no difficulties with that. There'd also be other difficulties over freedom of movement, though not insurmountable ones from a Left perspective (it would cause a major split in the Tory party, but I'd view that as a bonus!).

 

 http://www.efta.int/About-EFTA/Frequently-asked-questions-EFTA-EEA-EFTA-membership-and-Brexit-328676

If the UK remains in a customs union with the EU, could it still join EFTA?

Art. 56.3 of the EFTA Convention states that a new EFTA member state ‘shall apply to become a party to the free trade agreements between the Member States on the one hand and third states, unions of states or international organisations on the other.’ As a member of a customs union, a country acceding to EFTA could not comply with this obligation. EFTA membership does not preclude from entering into a customs arrangement with the EU [my emphasis]; existing EFTA countries govern their relation to the EU through different instruments.

 

I wasn't attacking you if that's what you thought Alf.

 

My issue with Norway+ is that it is not possible in the way people talk, particularly Owen Jones as essentially it being SM and CU. Your citation proves my point. You can't be in a customs union with the EU and be in EFTA. You can't be in two separate free trade areas, it doesn't work. Which is what EFTA says. To alter that, you'd have to alter EFTA, not sure a new member waltzing in and altering it would go well.

 

EEA solves most of the Irish border, you don't need checks if you standards are the same. Then you can use separate customs arrangements like rules of origin to solve the rest. Probably other bits of the customs code would be necessary. 

 

Of course there will be difficulties with anything and parliament's current make up is amplifying that, but it'd be useful if the people talking about an option were at least well-informed on it and not misleading. I know that's always a bit much to expect in politics but we've got people putting forward ideas they seemingly have no idea about. Similarly, it still requires a withdrawal agreement, maybe easier with clearer future direction.

 

Freedom of movement is entirely why it's not happened yet. Much of the bubble now criticises May for negotiating with no wriggle on freedom of movement but it's going to be a tough sell to do anything that doesn't restrict FoM.

[BKLFox]

With Germany on the brink of a recession & France and Italy not far behind, surely we have a bigger stick to hit the EU with for renegotiations.

They called our bluff saying there's the only deal we will offer take it or leave it but with that being rejected and a potential no deal on the cards surely they will now blink?

I don't do politics so I'm probably way off.

[Countryfox]

22 minutes ago, davieG said:

A General Election,

 

Corbyn wins by a landslide,

 

Tells the EU now give me what I want,

 

EU says sure, what do you want,

 

Corbyn says **** Knows what do you suggest would be good.

 

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head Davie ...   we’ll let the other posters plod on for a bit till they realise you’ve already called it.  

 

Some are blethering on about Norway ...   not sure what they’ve got to do with it ...   don’t they make heavy water there ???   

[gw_leics772]

13 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

I wasn't attacking you if that's what you thought Alf.

 

My issue with Norway+ is that it is not possible in the way people talk, particularly Owen Jones as essentially it being SM and CU. Your citation proves my point. You can't be in a customs union with the EU and be in EFTA. You can't be in two separate free trade areas, it doesn't work. Which is what EFTA says. To alter that, you'd have to alter EFTA, not sure a new member waltzing in and altering it would go well.

 

EEA solves most of the Irish border, you don't need checks if you standards are the same. Then you can use separate customs arrangements like rules of origin to solve the rest. Probably other bits of the customs code would be necessary. 

 

Of course there will be difficulties with anything and parliament's current make up is amplifying that, but it'd be useful if the people talking about an option were at least well-informed on it and not misleading. I know that's always a bit much to expect in politics but we've got people putting forward ideas they seemingly have no idea about. Similarly, it still requires a withdrawal agreement, maybe easier with clearer future direction.

 

Freedom of movement is entirely why it's not happened yet. Much of the bubble now criticises May for negotiating with no wriggle on freedom of movement but it's going to be a tough sell to do anything that doesn't restrict FoM.

I personally dont see why we can't leave and have no checks.

 

Our standards are generally higher so proving this should allow no checks and no tariffs.

 

I know im obviously missing something big, but if its just a shit rulebook. That can surely be changed if it is in everyones best interests.

 

Ie mercedes and bmw want to sell in the uk, they dont need to go somewhere else instead as they are presumably everywhere, and if not, they could essily go somewhere else as well.

 

The only thing i can see that stops this is the eu punishing us for having the gall to want to leave

[Alf Bentley]

10 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

I wasn't attacking you if that's what you thought Alf.

 

My issue with Norway+ is that it is not possible in the way people talk, particularly Owen Jones as essentially it being SM and CU. Your citation proves my point. You can't be in a customs union with the EU and be in EFTA. You can't be in two separate free trade areas, it doesn't work. Which is what EFTA says. To alter that, you'd have to alter EFTA, not sure a new member waltzing in and altering it would go well.

 

EEA solves most of the Irish border, you don't need checks if you standards are the same. Then you can use separate customs arrangements like rules of origin to solve the rest. Probably other bits of the customs code would be necessary. 

 

Of course there will be difficulties with anything and parliament's current make up is amplifying that, but it'd be useful if the people talking about an option were at least well-informed on it and not misleading. I know that's always a bit much to expect in politics but we've got people putting forward ideas they seemingly have no idea about. Similarly, it still requires a withdrawal agreement, maybe easier with clearer future direction.

 

Freedom of movement is entirely why it's not happened yet. Much of the bubble now criticises May for negotiating with no wriggle on freedom of movement but it's going to be a tough sell to do anything that doesn't restrict FoM.

 

 

I didn't think you were attacking me, though you did seem a bit exasperated ("There is no such thing as Norway+ ffs"). Not a problem, anyway. If I couldn't handle people arguing with me, I wouldn't come on here. If anything, I'm too much the other way - I enjoy arguing too much, when I'd be better off doing something else!

 

Largely fair comments that you've made both times, anyway. Though I wouldn't assume that "Norway+" means EFTA/SM and full membership of CU, more like elements of the latter (I don't have the knowledge to be more specific). I was assuming that Owen Jones was being similarly imprecise, but I might be wrong.

 

Like most others, I'm just trying to get my head round what might happen in a complicated, unpredictable situation. Every possible outcome seems unlikely in one way or another, yet one of them is probably going to happen. I struggle to get my head round it, but keep being tempted to try as the outcome might have major real-life impacts in the short and long-term.....or might not!

[gw_leics772]

4 hours ago, Countryfox said:

 

So ..  as the title says ...   what’s in the news ..

 

Well ...   a very interesting article about a massive black hole found in space ...     and just in case you weren’t sure what a black hole looks like ..   

 

 

 

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Black holes are spherical, so the 3D kind of round.

And as newspapers dont 3d, they had to use thr closest 2d equivalent.

 

Which is obviously a rectangle.

 

 

[purpleronnie]

So no deal going to be ruled out through legislation and we'll be in some form of customs union.

 

I think I just heard Jacob reece smugs head explode.

 

Funny thing is if that does happen Mays deal would look like a hard Brexit not soft.

[Sir Shep]

Cheers Phillip for diverting the news away from brexit, I guess a fender bender is more worthy ?

[bovril]

Watching Blair interviewed. The guy is a scumbag obviously but it does kind of make me long for the days when we at least had what seemed like skilled politicians in charge of the country. 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, purpleronnie said:

So no deal going to be ruled out through legislation and we'll be in some form of customs union.

 

I think I just heard Jacob reece smugs head explode.

 

Funny thing is if that does happen Mays deal would look like a hard Brexit not soft.

Link?