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yorkie1999

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By yorkie1999, in General Chat

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Combined Brexit and Tory vote at 47%??

 

One thing I noticed yesterday was that the majority of my friends (I'm in my 20's) didn't vote and said they've never been less bothered. If that actually happened in a general election then right leaning parties would waltz into power.  

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
Just now, Lionator said:

One thing I noticed yesterday was that the majority of my friends (I'm in my 20's) didn't vote and said they've never been less bothered. If that actually happened in a general election then right leaning parties would waltz into power.  

To be fair this is another....

 

Westminster voting intention: LAB: 33% (+1) CON: 28% (+1) LDEM: 13% (-) BREX: 12% (-1) GRN: 3% (-) UKIP: 3% (+1) CHUK: 2% (-) via Survation, 22 May Chgs. w/ 17 May

 

The next GE could produce an absolute freak of a result - you could genuinely have four different parties polling between 15-25% and that would make 300 constituencies in play for any of them.

 

In addition to that 50 odd seats going to the SNP in Scotland. 

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Lionator

Lionator

Posted
Posted
Just now, MattP said:

To be fair this is another....

 

Westminster voting intention: LAB: 33% (+1) CON: 28% (+1) LDEM: 13% (-) BREX: 12% (-1) GRN: 3% (-) UKIP: 3% (+1) CHUK: 2% (-) via Survation, 22 May Chgs. w/ 17 May

 

The next GE could produce an absolute freak of a result - you could genuinely have four different parties polling between 15-25% and that would make 300 constituencies in play for any of them.

 

In addition to that 50 odd seats going to the SNP in Scotland. 

I guess it depends when the next GE is. The way that politics has moved in the past three years, goodness knows what the landscape will look like in 2022. Whereas if it was now then it would be very interesting. I don't see any Tory leader calling a snap general election to be honest.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I guess it depends when the next GE is. The way that politics has moved in the past three years, goodness knows what the landscape will look like in 2022. Whereas if it was now then it would be very interesting. I don't see any Tory leader calling a snap general election to be honest.

The only one who might is Boris, as I'm sure he'd have the confidence he could win it.

 

Tory favourites never win leadership elections though, I think the last was Eden.

 

Whitehall was favourite when Thatcher won, Portillo when IDS won, Heseltine when Major won, DD when Cameron won, Boris when May won. Sure I've missed a couple as well.

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I guess it depends when the next GE is. The way that politics has moved in the past three years, goodness knows what the landscape will look like in 2022. Whereas if it was now then it would be very interesting. I don't see any Tory leader calling a snap general election to be honest.

 

Agreed, but I suppose there are 2 main ways that we could end up with a general election soon:

- The new Tory PM gets a honeymoon bounce in the polls, most Tory voters who've defected to the Brexit Party resume loyalty but a lot of Labour defectors to Remainer parties do not. Genuine chance for Tories to win a majority.

- New Tory PM takes us down No Deal path & Tory moderates (Grieve & co) join a no confidence motion, bringing down Govt to avoid No Deal

 

There won't be much time for the new PM to forge a new path on Brexit. Sounds as if they won't be in post much before mid-July, then UK & EU political institutions will be largely on holiday until September - 2 months to try to renegotiate Brexit before the deadline....

 

I wonder now if the EU might continue to refuse to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and refuse any further extension, accepting No Deal. They've got plenty else on their hands - and will have more after a load of populists get elected to the European Parliament on Sunday. It'll depend partly on whoever the new leaders of the Commission & Parliament are - and I don't know much about that.

 

But I can't imagine that UK political developments encouraging them to think further renegotiation or extension is worthwhile. They're shrewd enough to understand UK politics, nation divided down the middle etc. But the sight of Farage triumphing in the Euro elections & then, possibly, Boris becoming new PM isn't going to go down well. I think most Europeans view politics a bit differently from in UK, where it has a bigger element of performance/entertainment. Unlike here, they don't appreciate Boris' "humour" and "charisma", they just see him as a dangerous buffoon. I can imagine them taking the hit from No Deal, in the knowledge that the UK will take a much bigger hit (except for Ireland, which they'll be able to help out) - particularly to teach a lesson to other populists in Europe not to get too nationalistic....though few other Euro-populists want to leave the EU. :dunno:

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Buce

Buce

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Agreed, but I suppose there are 2 main ways that we could end up with a general election soon:

- The new Tory PM gets a honeymoon bounce in the polls, most Tory voters who've defected to the Brexit Party resume loyalty but a lot of Labour defectors to Remainer parties do not. Genuine chance for Tories to win a majority.

- New Tory PM takes us down No Deal path & Tory moderates (Grieve & co) join a no confidence motion, bringing down Govt to avoid No Deal

 

There won't be much time for the new PM to forge a new path on Brexit. Sounds as if they won't be in post much before mid-July, then UK & EU political institutions will be largely on holiday until September - 2 months to try to renegotiate Brexit before the deadline....

 

I wonder now if the EU might continue to refuse to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and refuse any further extension, accepting No Deal. They've got plenty else on their hands - and will have more after a load of populists get elected to the European Parliament on Sunday. It'll depend partly on whoever the new leaders of the Commission & Parliament are - and I don't know much about that.

 

But I can't imagine that UK political developments encouraging them to think further renegotiation or extension is worthwhile. They're shrewd enough to understand UK politics, nation divided down the middle etc. But the sight of Farage triumphing in the Euro elections & then, possibly, Boris becoming new PM isn't going to go down well. I think most Europeans view politics a bit differently from in UK, where it has a bigger element of performance/entertainment. Unlike here, they don't appreciate Boris' "humour" and "charisma", they just see him as a dangerous buffoon. I can imagine them taking the hit from No Deal, in the knowledge that the UK will take a much bigger hit (except for Ireland, which they'll be able to help out) - particularly to teach a lesson to other populists in Europe not to get too nationalistic....though few other Euro-populists want to leave the EU. :dunno:

7

 

I think that could well depend on Labour's stance on a second referendum - there are moves afoot on that:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/24/labour-activists-push-party-to-adopt-peoples-vote-as-official-policy

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I think that could well depend on Labour's stance on a second referendum - there are moves afoot on that:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/24/labour-activists-push-party-to-adopt-peoples-vote-as-official-policy

 

There have been attempts to shift Labour's stance for months. Corbyn has resisted them so far. 

Once the Con-Lab talks broke down, effectively ending hopes of a negotiated Soft Brexit, that would have been the moment for him to shift position if he'd been willing.

He could see Labour was heading for a bad result in the Euros & could have framed it as: "We wanted to honour the referendum result, we negotiated for weeks, but stubborn May resisted so regrettably we see a referendum as the best way out"

 

I suppose others in the party leadership might pressure him to shift after Labour gets hammered on Sunday - or it might shift if a new Tory PM calls for No Deal.

But the party conference, where the policy can be changed, isn't until September, is it?

Corbyn might well hope to get a general election before then, anticipating the Tories falling into further disarray - and where the hell will Brexit be by September, on the eve of the new departure date?

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Footballwipe

Footballwipe

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, MattP said:

The only one who might is Boris, as I'm sure he'd have the confidence he could win it.

 

Tory favourites never win leadership elections though, I think the last was Eden.

 

Whitehall was favourite when Thatcher won, Portillo when IDS won, Heseltine when Major won, DD when Cameron won, Boris when May won. Sure I've missed a couple as well.

On a sidenote, the BBC documentary series on Thatcher has started brilliantly. Five part series and the first one has really helped me understand how she got in. Amazing to think Callaghan even had a chance with the state Britain was in at the time.

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Buce

Buce

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There have been attempts to shift Labour's stance for months. Corbyn has resisted them so far. 

Once the Con-Lab talks broke down, effectively ending hopes of a negotiated Soft Brexit, that would have been the moment for him to shift position if he'd been willing.

He could see Labour was heading for a bad result in the Euros & could have framed it as: "We wanted to honour the referendum result, we negotiated for weeks, but stubborn May resisted so regrettably we see a referendum as the best way out"

 

I suppose others in the party leadership might pressure him to shift after Labour gets hammered on Sunday - or it might shift if a new Tory PM calls for No Deal.

But the party conference, where the policy can be changed, isn't until September, is it?

Corbyn might well hope to get a general election before then, anticipating the Tories falling into further disarray - and where the hell will Brexit be by September, on the eve of the new departure date?

 

As interesting as it is to try, I don't think it's possible to second-guess anything in UK politics atm. So much, for example, depends on what happens when Farage is busted as a one-issue politician; will he hold on to his support in a GE when his policies are under scrutiny? I haven't a clue.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Agreed, but I suppose there are 2 main ways that we could end up with a general election soon:

- The new Tory PM gets a honeymoon bounce in the polls, most Tory voters who've defected to the Brexit Party resume loyalty but a lot of Labour defectors to Remainer parties do not. Genuine chance for Tories to win a majority.

- New Tory PM takes us down No Deal path & Tory moderates (Grieve & co) join a no confidence motion, bringing down Govt to avoid No Deal

 

There won't be much time for the new PM to forge a new path on Brexit. Sounds as if they won't be in post much before mid-July, then UK & EU political institutions will be largely on holiday until September - 2 months to try to renegotiate Brexit before the deadline....

 

I wonder now if the EU might continue to refuse to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and refuse any further extension, accepting No Deal. They've got plenty else on their hands - and will have more after a load of populists get elected to the European Parliament on Sunday. It'll depend partly on whoever the new leaders of the Commission & Parliament are - and I don't know much about that.

 

But I can't imagine that UK political developments encouraging them to think further renegotiation or extension is worthwhile. They're shrewd enough to understand UK politics, nation divided down the middle etc. But the sight of Farage triumphing in the Euro elections & then, possibly, Boris becoming new PM isn't going to go down well. I think most Europeans view politics a bit differently from in UK, where it has a bigger element of performance/entertainment. Unlike here, they don't appreciate Boris' "humour" and "charisma", they just see him as a dangerous buffoon. I can imagine them taking the hit from No Deal, in the knowledge that the UK will take a much bigger hit (except for Ireland, which they'll be able to help out) - particularly to teach a lesson to other populists in Europe not to get too nationalistic....though few other Euro-populists want to leave the EU. :dunno:

Good analysis - the brinkmanship of this could be quite astonishing to watch, you would imagine whoever wins the Tory leadership election will be doing so on a promise that we leave the European Union at the end of October whether the WA agreement has passed or not - they won't be able to extend so of Tory MP's are going to collapse the government you would imagine they have to do it with plenty of time before the date we are due to leave.

 

Grieve was on Peston on Wednesdar and he implied he now wouldn't leave the Conservative party if Boris took over, some of these potential defectors might have been discourage by,

 

1. Rise of the Brexit Party.

2. The catastrophic launch of ChangeUK.

 

Them collapsing the government might still be likely, but not as likely as it was. The "second referendum" crowd may have completely blown this by not voting for the customs union/single market compromise in the indicative votes.

 

The last point is an interesting one - one poll this week has the Front National as the winner of the French elections, you would imagine the more eurosceptics in the place the more desire we'll see from them to get rid of us.

 

I still don't believe for one minute the EU will let us leave on No Deal though, I'm sure if they were prepared to it would have already happened. It's not just the economics either, them going into (or ordering Ireland) to put up a border is going to be terrible optics even if it is our decision that has caused it.

 

6 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

On a sidenote, the BBC documentary series on Thatcher has started brilliantly. Five part series and the first one has really helped me understand how she got in. Amazing to think Callaghan even had a chance with the state Britain was in at the time.

It's was absolutely fantastic wasn't it? Well worth a watch.

 

The depth of it was tremendous. 

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

As interesting as it is to try, I don't think it's possible to second-guess anything in UK politics atm. So much, for example, depends on what happens when Farage is busted as a one-issue politician; will he hold on to his support in a GE when his policies are under scrutiny? I haven't a clue.

 

Agreed. Too many uncertain factors to make predictions with confidence.....

 

- Who'll be Tory leader?

- What Brexit stance will they adopt?

- How will the public react to the new leader/stance?

- How will the EU react?

- Will Labour shift its stance?

- Will new Tory PM seek to beat Farage or ally with him?

- Would Farage agree some sort of electoral pact with a No Deal Tory leader? etc. etc.

 

I'm not sure Farage will get busted as a one-issue politician. There's a lot of public ignorance, a lot of public mistrust of politicians in general & a "just get Brexit over with" seems common.

 

He's already presenting himself as not just a one-issue (Brexit) man. He's presenting himself as the people's representative, defending the people/democracy against the anti-democratic elite in Westminster who don't care about them etc.

In a general election, he might be able to bluff his way through other issues (Brexit Party funding, NHS, tax/spend, austerity, foreign policy, whatever) with his blend of anti-establishment "pro-democracy" populism & nationalism....

 

All very unpredictable, though, as you say.

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Footballwipe said:

On a sidenote, the BBC documentary series on Thatcher has started brilliantly. Five part series and the first one has really helped me understand how she got in. Amazing to think Callaghan even had a chance with the state Britain was in at the time.

And great to see Michael Hesseltine still squirming and bitter

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted

On the subject of the Tory leadership - if the others don't get a move on Boris will have this wrapped up before it starts unless he completely blows it.

 

I'm torn on him, I just don't think he'll make a good Prime Minister at all, on the other hand though I also think he's the one to win a General Election that avoids an ever bigger disaster that would Corbyn and his mob being in charge of the nation.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kopfkino said:

And great to see Michael Hesseltine still squirming and bitter

The most bitter man I've seen in politics. Has he ever actually taken a decision that has benefitted the Tory party? Didn't want Thatcher, wanted to join the Euro, now wants his party to revoke Article 50 - it's almost like he's an agent who has forgotten he's supposed to be undercover. 

 

He might have had the whip withdrawn for openly stating he's voted Lib Dem but I'd put my house on it not being the first time.

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Matt

Matt

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lionator said:

One thing I noticed yesterday was that the majority of my friends (I'm in my 20's) didn't vote and said they've never been less bothered. If that actually happened in a general election then right leaning parties would waltz into power.  

 

Re: people feeling underwhelmed to bother to go out and vote - I got quite into it about 10 years or so ago but soon realised I didn’t appreciate being lied to time and time again, it’s all bollocks, all talk, all promise but nothing changes, nothing happens, get it regulated, get truth told and make actions speak louder than words.

 

Politics was arguably(? :dunno:) at peak (in recent times) during the 2016 referendum, I maintained it was all bullshit, they were all telling lies, points scoring, nothing would come to fruition, very little would ultimately change either way.

 

Seems I wasn’t wrong - seems it’s just made the country look a joke and caused a lot of faux outrage.

 

What it has done though is that it turned that ‘peak’, it turned the conversation about Politics into opening people eyes to what it is - lies. A load of BS.

 

For me people are now thinking what’s the point and when they had a chance of getting people really involved in politics, getting people talking, getting people to have a debate and conversations they screwed it - they turned everyone away.

 

A few people of who have talked to me about it all is that they’re of the opinion they struggle to see the point in voting ever again,  perhaps that’s what they (Politicians) want.

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MC Prussian

MC Prussian

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm obviously no expert in this, but if you apply a logical concept to the party you ought to vote for this time around, apply the exclusion principle, leave Labour and the Tories aside due to their heavy infighting and continuous struggles to connect to the people and focus on the other parties.

 

So, either Lib Dems, the Green Party or UKIP. The Brexit party, despite the high poll numbers, is but a Nigel Farage vehicle with no other clear concept. Besides, what is its reason for existence once Brexit happens or should Brexit be implemented? Do they then have to change their name? Fold? Or aren't they serious at all - as long as the whole Brexit dilemma continues, do they simply count on it perpetuating forever?

 

Change UK is a joke.

 

Wonder what people on here think of the Social Democrats. I find them rather appealing. Shame they don't get the attention they deserve.

Edited by MC Prussian
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Nalis

Nalis

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MattP said:

Combined Brexit and Tory vote at 47%??

 

Crazy how there was so much noise about Change /TIG when they first came on the scene whereas now they're potentially reduced to being a bit part player on par with UKIP and the Greens.

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