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40 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Tomorrow will be Queen Victoria's 200th birthday, but what is less well-known is that today, the Queen is 34,000 days old (if my arithmetic is correct).

I randomly discovered when reading an old Alex Horne book the other day that it was my 10,000th day on Earth, which means that I'm now in five figures and will never leave five figures unless I live to about 273. Seems unlikely.  

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8 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A great deal is being made of of polls indicating that Farage’s Brexit party are likely to come first in this election. To me his vote represents the hard core, no deal Brexit types, and at just over a third of the electorate that seems about right from what I can gather. However the actual number of seats to be won in this election is virtually irrelevant, not least because of the whole issue of Brexit hanging over the process.

 

Far more relevant is what can be assessed from the election results overall in terms of the total share of the vote for leave/remain parties. If the polls are anything to go by, this appears to give a significant majority in favour of a soft or no Brexit. It also shows a clear majority voting for parties supporting a second referendum.

 

A no deal Brexit would truly be the tail wagging the dog - to destruction.

 

You make it all sound so clear but a soft brexit is a brexit, a no brexit is not a brexit. Surely you should be saying that BREXIT (soft, hard or no deal) has a clear majority. as sad as that may be.

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11 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Mordaunt love, modern love, maudlin, morbid, even merde alors, but not Mourdant....

 

I was similarly stunned when I discovered Leadsom's age a while back - not least the realisation that she was younger than me - and that Graham Brady is younger than my little brother.

Have to say Mourdant's growing on me. Looked quite foxy this morning. What have I become. 

Edited by bovril
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I will be voting Lib Dem. 

 

I cant really understand how anyone can vote for the Labour (does anyone actually know their 'TRUE' position?) or the Tories (so divided, no clear leadership)?

 

Mays deal is likely the best we are going to get from the EU.

 

The real choice now is Mays Deal, No Deal or Remain

 

A customs union is utterly pointless It gives us absolutely the worst of everything, we may as well just stay in, I am not even sure why the Labour party are rambling on about this waste of time.it shouldn't fool anyone. They are not delivering Brexit, they are not delivering remain. I can not understand how they poll as high as they do! They have screwed the North and screwed their remain supporting membership -Bizarre -they deserve to be finished, they both do. 

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1 hour ago, FIF said:

You make it all sound so clear but a soft brexit is a brexit, a no brexit is not a brexit. Surely you should be saying that BREXIT (soft, hard or no deal) has a clear majority. as sad as that may be.

A soft Brexit, whilst having obvious disadvantages compared with current arrangements is unlikely to be anywhere near as damaging as a no deal Brexit.

 

Also the poll figures quoted a couple of pages back from 22nd May only gives UKIP, Brexit and Conservative parties a total of 47%, so I don’t believe your second sentence is true.

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18 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A soft Brexit, whilst having obvious disadvantages compared with current arrangements is unlikely to be anywhere near as damaging as a no deal Brexit.

 

Also the poll figures quoted a couple of pages back from 22nd May only gives UKIP, Brexit and Conservative parties a total of 47%, so I don’t believe your second sentence is true.

Are you saying that you really don't understand the "massive" difference between a soft brexit and not leaving? 

 

The first one could sort of be argued as being in line with the referendum, the second one can't and means we may have well ignored the referendum.

 

I'm with you in not wanting a no deal or hard brexit but they are both in line with the referendum result as is a soft brexit. Remain is not. I just think you are trying to convince people of what you think is best with facts that are clearly false. 

 

 You have reached the maximum number of posts you can make per day. - maybe someone can point out to Mark that his recent update has resulted in me having limited posts :-)

Edited by Guest
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Not a clue which way to go with the vote tonight, likelihood is I will abstain but if I'm honest I don't wish to waste a vote.


- Right now there is no chance I'm voting Labour or Conservatives, what with all of their leadership issues.

- Brexit Party, this for me is a push on No Deal and I'd prefer not to throw our economy back to the stone age

- Lib Dems / Change UK, this is probably where I will vote but that really is an "I don't want Brexit" and whilst I did vote to remain, I also have to respect democracy in which leaving won.

 

If I'm honest, I can't see Change UK being anything but a throwaway vote so it's likely it will be Lib Dems.

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14 minutes ago, Rusko187 said:

Not a clue which way to go with the vote tonight, likelihood is I will abstain but if I'm honest I don't wish to waste a vote.


- Right now there is no chance I'm voting Labour or Conservatives, what with all of their leadership issues.

- Brexit Party, this for me is a push on No Deal and I'd prefer not to throw our economy back to the stone age

- Lib Dems / Change UK, this is probably where I will vote but that really is an "I don't want Brexit" and whilst I did vote to remain, I also have to respect democracy in which leaving won.

 

If I'm honest, I can't see Change UK being anything but a throwaway vote so it's likely it will be Lib Dems.

 

If you're a Pro-Remain voter, I saw a tactical vote website that recommended voting Green, as the best outcome for the East Midlands is 2 Pro-Brexit seats and 2 Pro-Remain seat with one non-aligned.

 

Not sure how true it is, I wouldn't seriously vouch for it, but I can't trust Con or Labour like you so my vote was likely to go Greens anyway.

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8 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If you're a Pro-Remain voter, I saw a tactical vote website that recommended voting Green, as the best outcome for the East Midlands is 2 Pro-Brexit seats and 2 Pro-Remain seat with one non-aligned.

 

Not sure how true it is, I wouldn't seriously vouch for it, but I can't trust Con or Labour like you so my vote was likely to go Greens anyway.

Thanks, worth baring in mind.

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12 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If you're a Pro-Remain voter, I saw a tactical vote website that recommended voting Green, as the best outcome for the East Midlands is 2 Pro-Brexit seats and 2 Pro-Remain seat with one non-aligned.

 

Not sure how true it is, I wouldn't seriously vouch for it, but I can't trust Con or Labour like you so my vote was likely to go Greens anyway.

You got a link?

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12 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If you're a Pro-Remain voter, I saw a tactical vote website that recommended voting Green, as the best outcome for the East Midlands is 2 Pro-Brexit seats and 2 Pro-Remain seat with one non-aligned.

 

Not sure how true it is, I wouldn't seriously vouch for it, but I can't trust Con or Labour like you so my vote was likely to go Greens anyway.

https://www.remainunited.org/ has been posted here before.

 

The message is pretty much been consistent. If you're in England, Lib-Dems or Green Party.

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12 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

If you're a Pro-Remain voter, I saw a tactical vote website that recommended voting Green, as the best outcome for the East Midlands is 2 Pro-Brexit seats and 2 Pro-Remain seat with one non-aligned.

 

Not sure how true it is, I wouldn't seriously vouch for it, but I can't trust Con or Labour like you so my vote was likely to go Greens anyway.

 

Tough to predict, but based on the East Midlands result last time and the current polls, that seems reasonable analysis.

 

2014 result: 2 UKIP, 2 Tory, 1 Labour, other parties a long way behind: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Midlands_(European_Parliament_constituency)#2014

 

This time, if polls are remotely accurate:

- Brexit Party will get at least 2 MEPs

- Labour will probably retain their 1 MEP, despite drop in support (Tories dropping more & little between them last time)

- Tories at serious risk of losing their MEP, given polls

- Lib Dems will almost certainly win 1 MEP, but no chance of a 2nd one

- Last MEP up for grabs between Tories, a 3rd Brexit MEP & Greens, I reckon

 

....2 Brexit, 1 Labour, 1 Lib Dem.......& 1 Brexit/Tory/Green is my prediction.

 

 

 

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The election result in N. Ireland will be interesting.

 

They elect 3 MEPs. For ages, given the sectarian divide & demographics, they've elected 1 Sinn Fein, 1 DUP & 1 Official Unionist.

 

Sounds as if that might change this time.

Sinn Fein and DUP will probably retain their MEPs, but OUP could lose to the Alliance Party (non-sectarian, pro-Remain) or even to the SDLP, whose party leader is standing.

 

So, not only might N. Ireland elect 2 out of 3 Remainer MEPs, but the Unionists might not win a majority of the seats - & Irish nationalists might even win 2 out of 3 (SDLP are moderate nationalists), though Alliance more likely, I'd imagine.

 

Result will be interesting in view of the heightened importance of Brexit there, the Stormont closedown, murder of Lyra McKee etc.

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14 minutes ago, Strokes said:

And there was me thinking PR was the answer to tactical voting, I guess FPTP isn’t as evil as I thought.

 

No electoral system completely eliminates tactical voting - and this is just one of many different "more proportional" systems, which reduce but don't eliminate the need for tactical voting.

 

No electoral system is fully proportional, either, unless you allocate 99 / 20-millionths of parliament to the Monster Raving Loony Party, 12 / 20-millionths of parliament to Joe Nutter from Coalville who decided to stand as an independent Eliminate Dogshit candidate etc. :D

 

Just as well we don't have FPTP for this one, or we'd just have Brexit Party MEPs elected in 80% of seats & Lib Dems in London & SNP in Scotland. lol

Edited by Alf Bentley
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1 hour ago, Strokes said:

And there was me thinking PR was the answer to tactical voting, I guess FPTP isn’t as evil as I thought.

I think in the context of a general election it would be to some extent, but today, in the UK, there are very few who are likely to be voting on on anything other than their own Brexit stance.

Edited by Voll Blau
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47 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

No electoral system completely eliminates tactical voting - and this is just one of many different "more proportional" systems, which reduce but don't eliminate the need for tactical voting.

 

No electoral system is fully proportional, either, unless you allocate 99 / 20-millionths of parliament to the Monster Raving Loony Party, 12 / 20-millionths of parliament to Joe Nutter from Coalville who decided to stand as an independent Eliminate Dogshit candidate etc. :D

 

Just as well we don't have FPTP for this one, or we'd just have Brexit Party MEPs elected in 80% of seats & Lib Dems in London & SNP in Scotland. lol

 

This is all very informative, Alf, but what I really want to know is where the Eliminate Dogshit Party stand on Brexit. 

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Just now, Buce said:

 

This is all very informative, Alf, but what I really want to know is where the Eliminate Dogshit Party stand on Brexit. 

 

They haven't been able to stand anywhere on Brexit as they keep standing in dogshit. 

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8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

They haven't been able to stand anywhere on Brexit as they keep standing in dogshit. 

 

So, a wipeout for the Tories and a wipe-off for EDP?

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Guest MattP
5 hours ago, Lionator said:

Those who think this country is still somehow a major global power. 

 

They're the ones who scream patriotism when they're the one's who hate what this country has become the most. 

We have a permanent seat on the UN security council and are in the top few economies in the World. We are still a pretty major player on the global stage.

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Guest MattP
3 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A soft Brexit, whilst having obvious disadvantages compared with current arrangements is unlikely to be anywhere near as damaging as a no deal Brexit.

 

Also the poll figures quoted a couple of pages back from 22nd May only gives UKIP, Brexit and Conservative parties a total of 47%, so I don’t believe your second sentence is true.

Why are you not adding Labour into that 47? Their current party policy is to leave the European Union.

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