Getting brexit done!

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Fair point if those rumours about proposals to exclude EU state aid are true. Who knows what is true, what is false rumour and what is negotiating and PR tactics, though.

 

But although the point about even-handedness on state aid is valid, I do find it amusing to hear talk of a Tory-led UK wanting to increase state aid (with debt at record levels) and to regulate business beyond EU levels.

Whatever happened to the free market being the most efficient system? To "getting rid of all that Brussels red tape"? To the party of low tax and efficient public spending? To the need for 10 years of austerity when the deficit/debt was much lower than now? To rejecting the idea of a minimum wage until Labour introduced it? To refusing to sign up to EU social provisions until Labour reversed that?

 

Have I gone through the looking glass and entered some mysterious  world where Corbyn is running the Tory Govt with a mission to take Britain back to the 1970s?

Yes, I know Bozza comes out with all this populist stuff about "levelling up" and loves a grand, ego-boosting project or two....but this is still a party with plenty who are still loyal to Thatcherite values, even if they see the need for the odd bit of populist rhetoric. And Johnson is a PM who'll say anything to anyone, with no moral qualms whatsoever, so long as it gets him more votes, power, ego boosts, applause, laughs, sex or money.

 

Sorry if I come across as naive about the EU. I don't think that I am. I don't really see it as benign. I'd see it as maybe a bit saner than the UK Govt, but very much as an organisation doing everything that it can to protect and promote its own interests and those of its member states. I know that involves dubious rhetoric, demands and negotiating tactics at times - politics is a rough business and there's a lot at stake. Plus, the hard reality is that the EU is a more powerful body than the UK. It would still be damaged by No Deal, of course, but not as much as us (and Ireland, economically).....unless you believe that destructive chaos leads somewhere good in the long-term. I just hope that a deal can be found as the consequences of No Deal for all of us could be horrendous - in terms of relations between UK and EU citizens, not just the economic and logistical fall-out and ongoing tensions and hostility between the respective institutions. 

But Brexit-purity has overtaken any other ideological purity. I don’t even see much evidence that they want to undercut the EU nor go particularly mad on state aid but the ability to, and the ability for the UK public to vote in a government to do that trumps any other consideration. Actually, I’ve probably dressed it up, it’s probably just channelling ‘no, no, no’.

 

And actually, if you view the big advantage of Brexit as taking back control, it makes absolute sense to protect any element of control you can. Assuming the UK wishes to be law-abiding, signing up to these things in a FTA is more limiting than being in the EU because the EU has a legal exit mechanism to disapplying them in 2 years. The real potential benefit of Brexit would come in x years time (probably not Rees-Mogg’s 50 years) if the UK is able to be more nimble than others in response to a changing world. 

 

I don’t understand why opponents of the Conservatives try to pin them down ideologically, they change their minds to whatever suits cos that’s how you win elections (defined as populism these days), the only thing that drives them is keeping the other lot out. That’s why Boris was popular, despite more Blairite than Blair, cos he does whatever to win. Tbh, I don’t like the implicit idea that anyone has to be ideologically consistent. 
 

Not naive, I just think there’s a tendency for parts of the media and the intellectual class to be soft on the EU, justify what it does in friendlier terms and that filters down. There’s just been a real lack of informed scrutiny of the EU’s position throughout. The Brexit nutters and their media musings are in cloud cuckoo land and their tub-thumping doesn’t amount to scrutiny. 

[Alf Bentley]

54 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

But Brexit-purity has overtaken any other ideological purity. I don’t even see much evidence that they want to undercut the EU nor go particularly mad on state aid but the ability to, and the ability for the UK public to vote in a government to do that trumps any other consideration. Actually, I’ve probably dressed it up, it’s probably just channelling ‘no, no, no’.

 

And actually, if you view the big advantage of Brexit as taking back control, it makes absolute sense to protect any element of control you can. Assuming the UK wishes to be law-abiding, signing up to these things in a FTA is more limiting than being in the EU because the EU has a legal exit mechanism to disapplying them in 2 years. The real potential benefit of Brexit would come in x years time (probably not Rees-Mogg’s 50 years) if the UK is able to be more nimble than others in response to a changing world. 

 

I don’t understand why opponents of the Conservatives try to pin them down ideologically, they change their minds to whatever suits cos that’s how you win elections (defined as populism these days), the only thing that drives them is keeping the other lot out. That’s why Boris was popular, despite more Blairite than Blair, cos he does whatever to win. Tbh, I don’t like the implicit idea that anyone has to be ideologically consistent. 
 

Not naive, I just think there’s a tendency for parts of the media and the intellectual class to be soft on the EU, justify what it does in friendlier terms and that filters down. There’s just been a real lack of informed scrutiny of the EU’s position throughout. The Brexit nutters and their media musings are in cloud cuckoo land and their tub-thumping doesn’t amount to scrutiny. 

 

Points taken as to the Brexiteer logic of maximising sovereignty and national control, if that is the priority whatever the cost and consequences.

 

It's not so much that I see evidence of plans to undercut the EU. On the contrary, as Johnson seems to have a pathological desire for popularity, I presume he'd like to cut taxes, increase spending and improve everyone's living standards and quality of life so as to get vast applause.

 

It's just that, however well Brexit works in the long term (and you seem to agree that any hypothetical economic benefits would only accrue in the long term), I expect it to mean less cash and more hard decisions for the UK Govt in the short-term.

However flexible its ideology, in the short-term the Govt will have tougher decisions to take on tax, spending and other economic issues.

 

It might be our age difference that leads us to see this differently (not intended as a denigration of you or me). As you're younger, you're more flexible in being ready to accept that the Tories under Johnson might really mean what they say and so, when the tough decisions come around post-Brexit, they'll prioritise public investment, levelling up etc. My age might mean that I inflexibly assume that won't happen, just because I've seen them prioritise low tax, low public spending, free market economics, low public debt and restricted social provision for the past 4 decades, with odd exceptions. On the other hand, your age might mean that you are over-flexibly assuming that the Tories will engage in public investment and levelling up when the chips are down. When the hard decisions come and there isn't much dough, post-Brexit and post-Covid, will they really want to splash the cash on public investment even if it means running up even more debt, not being able to cut personal tax as Tories like to do and/or not being able to promote the financial interests of the big business/finance interests that fund their party?

 

I know that the Tories are quite capable of cunningly changing policies to win elections but, particularly after a No Deal Brexit, it might simply be impossible to level up so as to keep Red Wall seats and to do what traditional supporters in the South and shires want from them. There might be routes out of that dilemma. Resorting to a more anti-EU, English nationalist approach to fire people up against the foreigners who've "done us down" could work (and is one of my fears). If Scotland leaves, that could allow them to shaft the Red Wall areas, like they shafted the DUP, as they could command an electoral majority without them.

 

You say that Boris "does whatever to win". I'm sure you're right that he would, but apart from Brexit and the Covid response, he hasn't done much so far, has he? He's said a lot and promised a lot....maybe that'll be enough, if he wows people with more fine words in 4 years - or if a popular new leader takes over to clear up his mess. But I can see the Tories having some tough political decisions to take before then.

 

If I seem over-friendly in my attitude to the EU, I think it's less to do with friendly attitudes handed down from media/intellectuals and more that I expect most people (not just extreme Brexiteers, indeed myself included) to see things mainly from a UK perspective so I try to counter-balance that (partly to get a better understanding myself of what the under-scrutinised EU approach might be). It also stems from personal mistrust and hostility towards the Tories and Johnson, admittedly. 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

Sorry if I got a bit over-intense in my last couple of posts in this thread.

 

Actually, I probably just bored the arse off everyone. 

 

Anyway, some inconsiderate tosser has given me some work to do, so I'll absent myself for a while.

Probably a good thing as this whole Brexit/No Deal fiasco and its potential implications just winds me up, especially on top of Covid and the regular frustrations of everyday life.

 

See you around in the more cheerful threads.

[davieG]

58 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Sorry if I got a bit over-intense in my last couple of posts in this thread.

 

Actually, I probably just bored the arse off everyone. 

 

Anyway, some inconsiderate tosser has given me some work to do, so I'll absent myself for a while.

Probably a good thing as this whole Brexit/No Deal fiasco and its potential implications just winds me up, especially on top of Covid and the regular frustrations of everyday life.

 

See you around in the more cheerful threads.

[Jon the Hat]

Reports suggesting the EU are moving a bit on the level playing field by agreeing to independent arbitration and limiting penalties to the market in question.  Hopefully we can agree to this, and the EU can flex the CFP a little to keep France happy on fishing.  Fingers crossed!

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Reports suggesting the EU are moving a bit on the level playing field by agreeing to independent arbitration and limiting penalties to the market in question.  Hopefully we can agree to this, and the EU can flex the CFP a little to keep France happy on fishing.  Fingers crossed!

This sounds sensible and I hope a deal can be made to at least minimise the damage that’s being done.

 

Can’t really blame the EU for being sceptical about the UK government sticking to its treaty commitments after the WA fiasco, even if they did (and probably always intended to) back down in the end. Prior to that the UK had a pretty good reputation for integrity but it’s very easy to lose trust when you break, or threaten to break agreements.

Edited 15 December 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Stivo]

Just fish now... what could possibly go wrong?

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

This sounds sensible and I hope a deal can be made to at least minimise the damage that’s being done.

 

Can’t really blame the EU for being sceptical about the UK government sticking to its treaty commitments after the WA fiasco, even if they did (and probably always intended to) back down in the end. Prior to that the UK had a pretty good reputation for integrity but it’s very easy to lose trust when you break, or threaten to break agreements.

We will have to agree to disagree on that one, the WA was founded on there being a deal at the end of it, if there is no deal we shouldn't pay over a penny and all bets are off.

[Jon the Hat]

Some MP chatter on Twitter that parliament will sit Monday Tuesday next week to review a deal...

[Finnaldo]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Some MP chatter on Twitter that parliament will sit Monday Tuesday next week to review a deal...

I’m not sure as I was only half listening but I think the Conservative and Labour MPs on Politics Live were asked at the wrap up if they were both ready to sit in for a deal review. 

[Spudulike]

Interesting how the EU (mostly Ursula) are playing up the chances of a deal whilst the UK (mostly Boris) is playing it down. Complete switch around from the early days with Barnier repeating the insufficient progress mantra at every press release. 

 

Don't know what to read into it other than the whole thing has been a charade and a drama to justify their positions. I'm sure it could've probably been done behind closed doors in the first year. Still it's given the media plenty of material and the electorate some lively debates. 

[Innovindil]

8 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

Interesting how the EU (mostly Ursula) are playing up the chances of a deal whilst the UK (mostly Boris) is playing it down. Complete switch around from the early days with Barnier repeating the insufficient progress mantra at every press release. 

 

Don't know what to read into it other than the whole thing has been a charade and a drama to justify their positions. I'm sure it could've probably been done behind closed doors in the first year. Still it's given the media plenty of material and the electorate some lively debates. 

Same as the fake deadlines that have been made and remade for a past few months. "we'll need time to vote on any deal". Could be done in a couple of hours I'm sure. Hence why negotiations are still going on even with a few weeks left. 

 

All a proper song and dance at this point. 

[Jon the Hat]

My confidence levels are up again!  Positive noises at this stage strongly suggest we will get there imo.  Boris wants the big Reveal I am sure, whereas the EU prefer to be seen to be working till the last minute to get it right.

Edited 16 December 2020 by Jon the Hat

[Spudulike]

35 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

My confidence levels are up again!  Positive noises at this stage strongly suggest we will get there imo.  Boris wants the big Reveal I am sure, whereas the EU prefer to be seen to be working till the last minute to get it right.

I wouldn't get your hopes up. Give it a few hours and the French will be going on about fish and veto's again. 

[Babylon]

2 hours ago, Spudulike said:

I wouldn't get your hopes up. Give it a few hours and the French will be going on about fish and veto's again. 

I doubt Borris gives too much of a shit about fish anyway, it's a red herring (yeah I went there) to get them to move on the other sticking point, which is far more important. Now he can give on the fish and look like he's being reciprocal. 

 

Although all the weirdos wanting gun boats to blow up the French won't be happy, so who knows. 

[Dunge]

If fish is the only remaining issue then a deal will be done, 100%. At worst that issue can be kicked down the road a bit. The other two issues can’t so much.

[Strokes]

18 minutes ago, Babylon said:

 

 

Although all the weirdos wanting gun boats to blow up the French won't be happy, so who knows. 

It’s a shame but I’ll be happy enough....

[Spudulike]

On 16/12/2020 at 14:38, Dunge said:

If fish is the only remaining issue then a deal will be done, 100%. At worst that issue can be kicked down the road a bit. The other two issues can’t so much.

Must be more than fish as Gove reckons the chances of a deal are less than 50% and "regrettably the chances are more likely we won't secure an agreement".

 

At the same time Barnier is tweeting about "good progress". 

 

Feels like the Government are enjoying making them sweat. High stakes game of chicken or payback time? Clever or deluded? 

[Stevosevic]

On 16/12/2020 at 14:23, Babylon said:

I doubt Borris gives too much of a shit about fish anyway, it's a red herring (yeah I went there) to get them to move on the other sticking point, which is far more important. Now he can give on the fish and look like he's being reciprocal. 

 

Although all the weirdos wanting gun boats to blow up the French won't be happy, so who knows. 

Great pun

[st albans fox]

If we let it all fall apart over fishing then we were never serious about doing a deal ...... but pushing the EU too close to the edge may well mean no deal happens by accident !  

then there will be scrambling like crazy to bring in a freeze for January so they can sort the fishing out ....... but again, if we want no deal then we will just keep pushing them to agree something they can’t ....

 

[SecretPro]

Getting a deal or not has literally nothing to do with fishing. That's just a media go-to and a lie we are all being sold. As if the deal hinges on the livelihood of about 12,000 Brits? That's less than will be fooked if Arcadia goes and all of the staff are made jobless. Honestly, people will believe any old shit.

[Spudulike]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

Getting a deal or not has literally nothing to do with fishing. That's just a media go-to and a lie we are all being sold. As if the deal hinges on the livelihood of about 12,000 Brits? That's less than will be fooked if Arcadia goes and all of the staff are made jobless. Honestly, people will believe any old shit.

Dismiss it if you like but if it is purely a media construct then you have to wonder why the EU Parliament are still discussing it with so much concern. Don't forget that Barnier announced on day one of the negotiation that an FTA will not be signed without continued access to UK territorial waters.

 

"Nothing is agreed unless everything is agreed".

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, SecretPro said:

Getting a deal or not has literally nothing to do with fishing. That's just a media go-to and a lie we are all being sold. As if the deal hinges on the livelihood of about 12,000 Brits? That's less than will be fooked if Arcadia goes and all of the staff are made jobless. Honestly, people will believe any old shit.

Fishing is just the industry that happens to be impacted, the principle is more important - we will not be the only sovereign nation in the world to give up its economic rights over its waters.

[leicsmac]

I dunno, what is it about an exploitable and most definitely finite resource that makes supposedly sane people lose it and think it's OK to exploit it 'til it's gone- sorry, "economically unviable", so long as they're the ones doing the exploiting?

 

See it so often across the world and throughout the past, not just here.

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

I dunno, what is it about an exploitable and most definitely finite resource that makes supposedly sane people lose it and think it's OK to exploit it 'til it's gone- sorry, "economically unviable", so long as they're the ones doing the exploiting?

 

See it so often across the world and throughout the past, not just here.

If anything having control of the waters gets us away from the insanity of the CFP which has been very much the tragedy of the commons.