Corona Virus

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, String fellow said:

When this terrible crisis has finally gone away, will governments around the world set up an international court to decide if the Chinese government is guilty of manslaughter on an epic scale, due to gross negligence? And I wonder how the Chinese population in general view the unfolding international situation? 

They look at the mess unfolding around the world and they think that their govt did a great job. Away from Hubei province, they were locked down (in a similar way to Italy/Spain) for about four weeks.  they seem to feel some responsibility as the virus originated there but not in the way you mean in the way your question was worded. 

[yorkie1999]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

Nothing will happen to China IMO, we'll just carry on as normal and still continue to buy their products.

it'll be hard not to seeing as all the little components in cars etc are made there but, in future i'll try my best.

[Dahnsouff]

Do people really think their righteous indignation will trump (sorry) capital drivers with regard to China? 

Many first world countries have driven their manufacturing sector over a cliff in pursuit of capitalism, so there are very few blows that can be landed.

[murphy]

3 hours ago, Lionator said:

The World Health Organisation dropped a b*llock at the start but when they were saying test, test, test and contact trace in February and March, which countries weren't doing that? The US and UK? Who now has disproportionately large outbreaks compared to other countries, the US and the UK. All Trump is doing is making it look like the WHO are to blame, and absolving himself of any blame. Only his core base will buy it. Pretty much everyone messed up besides the countries which have actually controlled it by listening to WHO guidance (South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Aus & NZ for example). 

This data is of 17th March.  Germany didn't provide any data in testing at the time and we can assume they would be much higher than UK but they have the infrastructure readily in place:

 

If this is correct, it's not true to say ourselves and the USA were the worst at testing.  Where is France and Spain to name just two?  Two badly hit countries on a more advanced timeline than us.

 

The seven top ranking countries by test numbers, according to the 17 March dataset, were:

1. Guangdong in China (320,000)
2. South Korea (286,716)
3. Italy (148,657)
4. United Arab Emirates (125,000) 
5. Kuwait (120,000)
6. Russia (116,061)
7. UK (50,442)

[yorkie1999]

According to the LM, as of 2 days ago there have been 109 deaths in Leicester hospitals who tested positive for corona virus. Doesn't say if they died from it though. Very sad but i wouldn't have thought that was that many in the grand scheme of things.

 

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/leicesters-hospitals-report-3-more-4043361

[MattFox]

40 minutes ago, murphy said:

This data is of 17th March.  Germany didn't provide any data in testing at the time and we can assume they would be much higher than UK but they have the infrastructure readily in place:

 

If this is correct, it's not true to say ourselves and the USA were the worst at testing.  Where is France and Spain to name just two?  Two badly hit countries on a more advanced timeline than us.

 

The seven top ranking countries by test numbers, according to the 17 March dataset, were:

1. Guangdong in China (320,000)
2. South Korea (286,716)
3. Italy (148,657)
4. United Arab Emirates (125,000) 
5. Kuwait (120,000)
6. Russia (116,061)
7. UK (50,442)

We were actually doing a fair amount of testing till the middle of March when the government realised the virus was too wide spread to test and trace with the limited facilities we have.

 

America ramped up testing when the bought the private sector on board in mid march

[Steve_Walsh5]

1 hour ago, Wymsey said:

Ever since the lockdown, day-to-day, it appears that more people are venturing out (with some ignoring the social-distancing rules).

I had to nip out today and I noticed a lot more cars on the road, families out riding bikes and older people on walks.

 

[Stivo]

1 hour ago, murphy said:

If this is correct, it's not true to say ourselves and the USA were the worst at testing.  Where is France and Spain to name just two?  Two badly hit countries on a more advanced timeline than us.

 

There was a problem in the USA - their initial test didn’t work, but whether that really made a big difference isn’t clear.  After that they have scaled up their testing massively.

 

in the uk the testing was fine initially, we had a test developed and were quick to introduce drive thru testing - the day before south Korea.  

It didn’t scale though as we have admitted - beyond a point we simply didn’t have the capability to do clinical testing and test key workers let alone members of the public. The same is true for Spain, Italy and France. 

 

Germany and South Korea seem to demonstrate that massive testing and tracking makes a difference which is good news if we can up our testing for the next round.

Our exit strategy will presumably be to reduce the daily death toll back to 50 or so, ramp up testing so everyone with symptoms can get a test quickly and persuade people to install a NHS Bluetooth tracker app, and build up big contact tracing teams. 

[bmt]

18 minutes ago, Stivo said:

Our exit strategy will presumably be to reduce the daily death toll back to 50 or so, ramp up testing so everyone with symptoms can get a test quickly and persuade people to install a NHS Bluetooth tracker app, and build up big contact tracing teams. 

I agree this is probably the mid-term plan. Would be keen to hear it from the govt, I'm not too bothered about timescales but the actual strategy should be discussed.

[Sampson]

9 minutes ago, bmt said:

I agree this is probably the mid-term plan. Would be keen to hear it from the govt, I'm not too bothered about timescales but the actual strategy should be discussed.

I think it's probably an open secret that that's the exit strategy until a vaccine is found.

 

The government probably don't want to say it out loud though in case antibody testing which are accurate either aren't made to be accurate enough or they are made and find that the virus is much deadlier than expected.

 

I also reckon they'll think its sensible to see how Italy and Spain start to fare seeing as they're ahead of us in the curve so will begin to exit lockdown a few weeks before us.

Edited 15 April 2020 by Sampson

[Stivo]

1 minute ago, Sampson said:

I think it's probably an open secret that that's the exit strategy until a vaccine is found.

 

The government probably don't want to say it out loud though in case antibody testing which are accurate either aren't found or find that it isn't as widespread in the population as expected.

 

I also reckon they'll think its sensible to see how Italy and Spain start to fare seeing as they're ahead of us in the curve so will begin to exit lockdown a few weeks before us.

Actually I don’t think the antibody testing matters so much for this, that’s useful when some significant percentage have been exposed but I doubt it’s more than a few percent at the moment.  At the end of this phase we need a fast way to get a drive through antigen test and a quick result.

 

On that point pillar 4 is the high quality but slow antibody tests by Porton Down that do work.  That is meant to do a population sample to work out how many people have had this thing.  In the data it says that they have done 3000 such tests, I wonder when they will share some results. That will also give a better view of the fatality rate.

 

I agree too on your other point , the most sensible thing is to learn from others ahead of you but it’s not what the press will want to hear.

[Unabomber]

How do online shops work when they drop it off anyone know? 

[StanSP]

14 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

How do online shops work when they drop it off anyone know? 

As in how does delivery work? 

[FoxesDeb]

15 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

How do online shops work when they drop it off anyone know? 

Online shops like Amazon, or like Sainsbury's? 

[Kopfkino]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

 

 

Do you have any links to evidence (not unfounded opinion) proving that the WHO is "China's rent boy" and "a PR organisation just parroting whatever information they are given"? 

 

If the WHO did just "repeat erroneous information" (provided by China, I assume), how should it have obtained the correct information before the virus left China?

Does the WHO have better sources of intelligence within China than major national governments?

 

I agree that the situation is complex and that there should be "consideration of the context and unique situations [govts] are working in", not just simplistic blaming of governments. I also agree that most of the analysis of the culpability (or not) of different institutions needs to wait and be done thoroughly after the crisis is resolved - apart from issues that can improve the ongoing crisis management like testing and PPE, as you say.

 

But there seems to be a disparity in your attitude to governments and to the WHO.

 

If I understand you correctly, you're saying:

 

- The WHO response was culpably inadequate as it relied on false info from China. This makes it "China's rent boy" and a "PR organisation" that should be "binned off".

 

- Governments (particularly the UK Tory Govt) should not be blamed prematurely as they relied on false info from China. You're not minded to be "particularly critical [of the govt] so long as they're working with the best intentions" and "prefer to leave criticism until after" (with a few exceptions). It's "no use harping on about" Cheltenham", you "worry that lots of people will just blame governments" simplistically and "it's difficult to believe that some of the more vociferous voices against the govt aren't motivated, at least in part, by politics".....

 

To be fair, I'm sure you'd accept that yours might also be one of the "vociferous voices....motivated at least in part by politics"!  

 

Unfortunately Alf, your little hatchet job is about as effective as a chocolate teapot and by extension the WHO at the start of this pandemic. Which is of course entirely my point, it isn't fit for purpose if all it can do is repeat the lines given to it by individual nations but you seem to have ignored that point in favour of grandstanding. 

 

Let us start by taking a line from your favourite publication "the WHO’s reluctance to challenge what it was being told, has cost the world dearly." You've managed to grasp the concept of challenging information but many don't believe the WHO was able to do the same. "Doctors and nurses in Wuhan told Chinese media there were plenty of signs that the coronavirus could be transmitted between people as early as late December. Patients who had never been to the suspected source of the virus, the Huanan Seafood Market, were infected. Medical workers started falling ill."Also "By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection...27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market", so presumably those other 14 just magicked up the infection. In that same Lancet paper with reference to the first person to die on January 9th  "The first fatal case, who had continuous exposure to the market, was admitted to hospital because of a 7-day history of fever, cough, and dyspnoea. 5 days after illness onset, his wife, a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market, also presented with pneumonia and was hospitalised in the isolation ward." Taiwan also claims to have warned early about human-to-human transmission. I have seen reports of Wuhan University had evidence of h-2-h transmission but I can't find it if it is indeed in English. Yet on the 14th January it was repeating the Chinese line about there being no evidence of human-to-human transmission. This at the same time, that on the ground China was preparing for an epidemic. China was preparing for an epidemic despite there being no human-to-human transmission. What exactly were WHO doing, did they choose to parrot the line told to them by Chinese authorities or did they question that robustly? I believe if they had and they were independent, they wouldn't have put that tweet out.

 

These words come from a WHO rep. "Analysts said local officials were more fearful of being blamed for disasters under President Xi Jinping and there was growing evidence of a crackdown on would-be whistleblowers. In January, Zhou Xianwang, the mayor of Wuhan, admitted that information about the coronavirus was not disclosed in a “timely manner” in the early stages of the outbreak." and from the same article "I think [China] were very quick to let WHO know . . . about it being a novel disease, they were very quick in being able to isolate the virus and share the genome sequence but I think on some of the more government public health type issues, they have been rather recalcitrant.” So I return to my point, what is the point of the WHO if it relies on information directly supplied to it from a regime not known for telling the truth in the past that probably thought if it could cover it up and get away with it, that was preferable to being open and honest. What is the point of it if it doesn't operate with some independence from the country where the issue has arisen?

 

"Ohlberg said the statements of the WHO have clearly been heavily influenced by the Chinese Communist Party. She says she was surprised that, from the start, many experts uncritically repeated information from Beijing and “preached confidence in the WHO and the Chinese government.” Similarly, I refer you back to the NS article referencing the comments of Japan's deputy PM (maybe driven by politics idk). "The WHO’s Bruce Aylward, the Canadian epidemiologist who led the team, described the process as “fantastic”. But he told the FT there was “huge back and forth” with Chinese officials about what went into the report." Now again maybe they were just honest back and forths and what's included in that article maybe the extent to it but forgive me for being somewhat skeptical about that and wondering, again, what is the point of the WHO if China can just spin the info it presents?

 

 

Also just seen on the news that we've got a shortage of straw now, apparently a man that lives in Leicester South has been hoarding it to build a giant strawman. Can you point me to where I said the UK government shouldn't be criticised because they relied on false info from China? Please, because I can't see anywhere that I did and that's probably because I don't really think that's an excuse for the UK government although it clearly wasn't helpful. But also it's the WHO's job to ascertain the facts and present them to the rest of the world, that is it's primary job at the start of the pandemic whereas the same can't be said of the UK government, in fact the UK's job is to work with the information the WHO gives to it, so obviously they'd be held to a different standard on that front. It's the WHO's job to obtain the information and the UK's job to act on that information. So that's a good start as to why your closing comments are dumb, I'm not treating them equally because they are not equal.  

 

Next up, yes I am minded to not be critical during the event if they are working with the best intentions, but it's quite clear I don't believe that to have been the case for the WHO, as of course some might for the UK government.

 

I don't really understand the relevance to your point of my worry that people will blame governments based on simplistic measures? The point being that just comparing number of deaths isn't reflective of government performance because that's like Spurs fans thinking possession wins football matches. You seem to have not quite grasped the thrust of my point that institutions within a country matter and that what I want at the end of this is for people to question institutional structures, to think about the optimal institutional structures to respond to these sorts of events and done as a proper comparative study. Institutions (and institutions can be defined however broadly or narrowly people want) are a big causal factor in how governments are able to respond short-term and thus have a large determinable effect on measured deaths at the end, ie PHE v RKI. So now I have literally questioned the point of the WHO as an organisation (but have not solely blamed them) because it is seemingly not able to operate effective to the benefit of the globe when a novel virus emerges from China which is a constraint on the abilities of all governments. Such organisations need rethinking, but the imagination for that isn't forthcoming because, it is my opinion that, people are too infatuated by the theoretical ideals and intents of international cooperation to bother questioning whether it's actually effective in the mould it currently exists. Do I agree with Trump's timing? No. Maybe I should have heeded my own advice on speaking out about criticism of the WHO until later on but other than that tell me where my inconsistency is?

 

The point on the most vociferous voices being motivated by politics was not me saying that they are but me saying that it's hard to believe any defence otherwise when all they do is criticise the man and the party.  I've also never exempted myself from being political, in fact in that same post I said denying being political (because that manifests itself in many ways) is absurd as that was the point I was addressing and said that criticism being politically driven doesn't invalidate it. You seem to think I was defending the UK government when I was defending all governments but used the UK as its the example I know best, it was not particularly the UK government but all governments. I actually don't know what politics I've been motivated by but even if it is politically motivated, your gotcha attempt falls flat.

Edited 15 April 2020 by Kopfkino

[StanSP]

Care workers want proper equipment. 

 

Our government: here, have a badge 

 

 

[StanSP]

 

 

 

[reynard]

1 hour ago, Stivo said:

There was a problem in the USA - their initial test didn’t work, but whether that really made a big difference isn’t clear.  After that they have scaled up their testing massively.

 

in the uk the testing was fine initially, we had a test developed and were quick to introduce drive thru testing - the day before south Korea.  

It didn’t scale though as we have admitted - beyond a point we simply didn’t have the capability to do clinical testing and test key workers let alone members of the public. The same is true for Spain, Italy and France. 

 

Germany and South Korea seem to demonstrate that massive testing and tracking makes a difference which is good news if we can up our testing for the next round.

Our exit strategy will presumably be to reduce the daily death toll back to 50 or so, ramp up testing so everyone with symptoms can get a test quickly and persuade people to install a NHS Bluetooth tracker app, and build up big contact tracing teams. 

Well Spain have conducted 600 thousand tests and Italy 1.1 million. Only France really compares with us. To put our inadequate testing levels into perspective Turkey, hardly a bastion of brilliant health care, has conducted 443 thousand tsts. So more than us.

 

If we wait until the daily death toll falls to 50 we are going to be in lockdown for a great many weeks. Whilst that would be great from a safety point of view I just can't see the situation we have now being sustainable for probably around another 3 months. The government support schemes potentially end at the end of May so they would all need to be reconsidered to run pretty much all through the summer.

 

Testing is the main issue. We simply look miles off being able to do enough tests to make a difference.

 

 

Edited 15 April 2020 by reynard

[StanSP]

Just heard a pregnant nurse has died from Covid-19 in Luton 

 

Baby has survived but tragic otherwise

 

[The Guvnor]

Testing to see if you have the virus (outside of hospitals) will solve fcuk all, the only test which is going to bring around any semblance of normality is the antibody test to determine who has had it.

 

[FoxesDeb]

I've been made to realise today just how differently some of us are finding the current situation. I've said before that I'm loving working from home, it suits me and I'm already dreading having to return to the office. But I'm also very grateful to still have my job and the salary it brings with it. One of my colleagues got a bit emotional though in our team meeting, she's feeling really isolated and is definitely struggling. 

Little things I know in the big scheme of things, but an eye opener nonetheless. 

[Unabomber]

9 minutes ago, StanSP said:

As in how does delivery work? 

 

8 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Online shops like Amazon, or like Sainsbury's? 

Food shop from tesco etc. Do they just leave all the bags at your door and walk off?

[StanSP]

2 minutes ago, Unabomber said:

 

Food shop from tesco etc. Do they just leave all the bags at your door and walk off?

I think they knock on your door then walk away, then leave the bags/crates at your doorstep and give you time to take it in then take crates away. 

 

Not had it myself but seen my neighbour had a delivery couple days ago. 

[reynard]

1 minute ago, Unabomber said:

 

Food shop from tesco etc. Do they just leave all the bags at your door and walk off?

Pretty much. You can get an update from your account which narrows down the delivery slot. Might leave a picking list for you to cross check. But they won't hang around and should stay a good distance away.

[Dahnsouff]

4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Just heard a pregnant nurse has died from Covid-19 in Luton 

 

Baby has survived but tragic otherwise

 

Very very sad. Growing up the child of a heroic mother will be scant consolation. Some of the Twitter traffic, trying to score points of the back of this makes me quite nauseous