Corona Virus

[Guest MattP]

8 hours ago, twoleftfeet said:

Chinas death rate 2 per million Spain's death rate is 400 per million.

Now I am not naive enough to believe the Chinese number of deaths it seams far too low but the worst in that part of the world Iran is only at 58 per million. China's close neighbour South Korea stands at 4 per million.

The death rates per million in the west seem well out of step with the rest of the world but i suppose only time will tell. 

We'll never know the true figures from China but our intelligence seems to vary that's out by a factor of 15 to 40 - so probably somewhere between 50000 and 150000 deaths.

 

The official Chinese death toll outside Wuhan is 119

 

I mean this is a place connected by rail and air to Beijing and Shanghai and we are supposed to believe that, it's so ridiculous where do you even start?

[The Guvnor]

9 hours ago, bovril said:

Poor analogy in my opinion, because it suggests Europeans had no control over the situation. China is responsible for the virus, not the poor response in Europe. 

Maybe if China had been open and honest very early on and not tried to suppress information, Europe and the rest of the World wouldn't have been subjected to the level of sh#t it now finds itself in.

 

[The whole world smiles]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

We'll never know the true figures from China but our intelligence seems to vary that's out by a factor of 15 to 40 - so probably somewhere between 50000 and 150000 deaths.

 

The official Chinese death toll outside Wuhan is 119

 

I mean this is a place connected by rail and air to Beijing and Shanghai and we are supposed to believe that, it's so ridiculous where do you even start?

Any source for that?

[Dr The Singh]

Good to see Burger King and KFC open again.  Positive signs.

 

BTW, my Mrs works for the NHS, and yes it is alot more quite

Edited 16 April 2020 by Dr The Singh

[Dr The Singh]

It seems the Chinese are blaming black people for the spread.

 

Read a article in Sky about black people not allowed in bars and restaurants in China, makes me cringe big time.

[Costock_Fox]

5 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

Any source for that?

Sweet and sour?

[StanSP]

11 minutes ago, Dr The Singh said:

Good to see Burger King and Maccies open again.  Positive signs.

 

BTW, my Mrs works for the NHS, and yes it is alot more quite

When? 

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

Any source for that?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?r

 

scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.  

[yorkie1999]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?r

 

scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.  

The low figure is probably why the WHO, and consequently their reacting to informing the rest of the world, was slow.

[murphy]

8 hours ago, Fktf said:

You can see evidence of your point within Europe. For instance, Poland locked down early from their first case, and has less than 300 deaths so far. Germany went for a test, isolate, trace approach, and this has limited deaths compared to other EU countries. Then other countries that were 'slow to react' and will face 20000 plus deaths, including us. But it wasn't these countries being slow to react, apart from maybe Italy who got the first major wave in Europe. After that, the rest of us saw what had happened in a similar country, and made a decision of what to do in light of that information. 

 

Whatever the tory sympathisers on here will tell you, the initial goal of our govt, and their selected science advisors, was herd immunity. Any epidemiologist knows that limiting person to person transmission will stop a virus (see approaches taken in Poland, Taiwan..). We didn't do it because we wanted it to spread, and only changed direction when it became clear the virus was far more infectious than first thought, and spreading at a rate that would overwhelm the NHS. 

 

What's sad is that we'd seen the likely trajectory of the spread in the UK in places like Italy weeks before. Boris was saying 'many of us will loved ones before their time', and the next day the polish pm was quoting this saying 'the reason we're implementing such tough social distancing measures is so you don't have to say goodbye to loved ones'. 

 

For whatever reason, we had the chance to prevent us being in the same situation as Italy, Spain, France, but chose not to take it. The govt talks about 'the science', like it reveals one objective decision. But is doesn't. Plenty of scientists saw the data from Italy and thought we should have locked down 2 weeks earlier than we did. 

 

I don't know what's worse, people wilfully misunderstanding the herd immunity issue to suit their own agendas or people being so thick that they still don't get it.

 

The plan all along was to broaden and flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the NHS.  Vallance, the source of the original quote, was on TV on Monday (Coronavirus Q&A) and was asked this question directly. 

 

He said  "Let Me be crystal clear, herd immunity never was the government's strategy..."

 

Herd immunity is a possible end game.  A likely by product of infection because the transmission cannot be stopped entirely only slowed down or reduced.  The sad thing is that people heard Vallance's original quote and thought that he was advocating a policy of standing idly by and letting the population get infected, sacrificing lives to build up acquired immunity, despite the government hammering home their message to the contrary day after day after day after day after day....  

 

....Or rather they heard what they wanted to hear as this would fit nicely with some people's pathetic caricature image of the evil Tory.

 

We've been through this.  We know for certain that herd immunity was never a plan.  Why are you still trying to peddle this shit?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

The low figure is probably why the WHO, and consequently their reacting to informing the rest of the world, was slow.

If the WHO seriously believed the figures coming out of an authoritarian dictatorship known for its human rights abuses and widespread manipulation of all data and press then you really do have to ask what the point of it is.

 

But it's probably far more sinister than that, to what extent I wouldn't like to guess.

 

At least when Chernobyl happened we didn't have international organisations blindly believing the word of the Soviets, no matter how much time moves some things still get worse. 

[st albans fox]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?r

 

scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.  

In a city of nine million people locked down (and we don’t mean the type of lockdown we have in Europe)  for several months, there are going to be quite a lot of dead people that are non CV-19 related 

 

there were many suppressed cases away from Hubei province - the WHO would know this and chose to say what they said but western govts would be aware of what was going on via their embassies etc.  The idea that we were reliant on the WHO for details on what was happening is China is odd.  But I’m pretty sure from my sources in China that there weren’t  any widespread large death totals away from Hubei and more specifically -  Wuhan itself.   The countrywide lockdown was pretty swift late jan and enforced rigidly .......... there was no grey area of what’s ‘essential work’.  The numbers are undoubtedly much higher than China have publicly revealed but that’s the Chinese way in all things - it’s all about ‘saving face’ 

[Dr The Singh]

28 minutes ago, StanSP said:

When? 

Mistake pal, not maccies, but KFC.

 

Not all take aways are open, around about 11 each

[Foxin_Mad]

11 hours ago, twoleftfeet said:

85% of the worlds deaths from this virus have occurred in Europe and the USA.

Hardly a surprise, more transient wealthy nations who travel easily and widespread.

 

I suspect crapper northern hemisphere winter weather also aids the virus, although unproven. 

 

The issue here is it proves globalisation and unhindered free movement of people, jobs and goods is an absolute dangerous catastrophic failure. It must be reversed for locally sourced goods/jobs and proper borders where possible.

[Lionator]

36 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?r

 

scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.  

As @st albans fox says a lot of those 42000 will have died from non-covid related illnesses although as an indirect result of covid-19. What a lot of people don't understand is that the Chinese lockdown was absolutely insane. People were being welded into their houses amongst all other sorts of human right abuses. Those Chinese figures may actually not be that far out, but it was completely unethical how they got there.

 

However, China aren't the only country covering stuff up and my fear is that this just leads to greater nationalistic isolation, which would be terrible for future issues such as pandemics and climate change. We need to work together. 

[Charl91]

20 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Hardly a surprise, more transient wealthy nations who travel easily and widespread.

 

I suspect crapper northern hemisphere winter weather also aids the virus, although unproven. 

 

The issue here is it proves globalisation and unhindered free movement of people, jobs and goods is an absolute dangerous catastrophic failure. It must be reversed for locally sourced goods/jobs and proper borders where possible.

This, and also the fact that Western Nations are more likely to represent their figures accurately. I imagine that China's actual statistics would lower that 85% by quite a margin.

 

Though I also read a report (not sure how true it is) the other day that Chile are counting people who've died from the virus as "recovered", because they no longer have symptoms of the virus  

Edited 16 April 2020 by Charl91

[StanSP]

FINE MARGINS! 

 

In all honesty it's quite simple to understand what she's saying. Flatten the curve. Restrict the spread from person to person to just 1. Be cautious. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

12 minutes ago, Lionator said:

As @st albans fox says a lot of those 42000 will have died from non-covid related illnesses although as an indirect result of covid-19. What a lot of people don't understand is that the Chinese lockdown was absolutely insane. People were being welded into their houses amongst all other sorts of human right abuses. Those Chinese figures may actually not be that far out, but it was completely unethical how they got there.

 

However, China aren't the only country covering stuff up and my fear is that this just leads to greater nationalistic isolation, which would be terrible for future issues such as pandemics and climate change. We need to work together. 

I actually think the fears of nationalistic isolation are what is leading some people to be so generous to the Chinese authorities.

 

I don't deny many of the things claimed are true but the "lockdown" still didn't happen until a few months after the first cases in Wuhan and this is a well connected place with thousands travelling to and from it into places like Beijing every day between December and February.

 

So a figure of just over 100 deaths combined in those cities that are more densely and higher populated than most European countries? Come on. We all know this is miles from the truth.

[WigstonWanderer]

55 minutes ago, murphy said:

 

I don't know what's worse, people wilfully misunderstanding the herd immunity issue to suit their own agendas or people being so thick that they still don't get it.

 

The plan all along was to broaden and flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the NHS.  Vallance, the source of the original quote, was on TV on Monday (Coronavirus Q&A) and was asked this question directly. 

 

He said  "Let Me be crystal clear, herd immunity never was the government's strategy..."

 

Herd immunity is a possible end game.  A likely by product of infection because the transmission cannot be stopped entirely only slowed down or reduced.  The sad thing is that people heard Vallance's original quote and thought that he was advocating a policy of standing idly by and letting the population get infected, sacrificing lives to build up acquired immunity, despite the government hammering home their message to the contrary day after day after day after day after day....  

 

....Or rather they heard what they wanted to hear as this would fit nicely with some people's pathetic caricature image of the evil Tory.

 

We've been through this.  We know for certain that herd immunity was never a plan.  Why are you still trying to peddle this shit?

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I suppose that Boris was talking about flattening the curve when toying with the idea of “taking it on the chin”? Quite startling how history can be rewritten before our very eyes. I must be too thick to understand.

Edited 16 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[The whole world smiles]

47 minutes ago, MattP said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?r

 

scientists have told Johnson that China could have downplayed its number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus "by a factor of 15 to 40 times." China had reported 81,439 cases at the time of writing.

On Sunday, March 29, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove told the BBC he was skeptical of the China numbers. "It was the case … [that] the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this," he said.

The Chinese government has disclosed only 3,304 deaths from coronavirus. Yet funeral homes in Wuhan have disposed of an estimated 42,000 corpses, according to Radio Free Asia.  

Not to be a pendant but this is talking about cases not deaths (not that I don't think China have downplayed both). Every country in the world has a huge gulf between reported cases and actual cases do to asymptomatic carriers and a lack of testing we currently have a mortality rate in the UK of about 12% based on hospital deaths which is ridiculous because the number of cases is not a true reflection.

 

I read the other day (I think it was that German town report) that the mortality rate will be 0.7 so based on that with 13,000 reported deaths. Our actual infection rate should be about 1.5 million people (and that's not including care home deaths and community deaths it could be a lot larger). So our infection rate could be at least 15 times larger than is being reported.

 

So in a nutshell I'm not saying your wrong, I would be surprised if it along the lines that you have said but I haven't seen anything concrete on this besides what has naturally occured in every country.

[brucey]

4 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

Not to be a pendant but this is talking about cases not deaths (not that I don't think China have downplayed both). Every country in the world has a huge gulf between reported cases and actual cases do to asymptomatic carriers and a lack of testing we currently have a mortality rate in the UK of about 12% based on hospital deaths which is ridiculous because the number of cases is not a true reflection.

 

 

...Sorry, just being a pedant 

[foxile5]

15 minutes ago, brucey said:

 

 

...Sorry, just being a pedant 

Sorry just being a pet ant. 

[Salisbury Fox]

31 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

And I suppose that Boris was talking about flattening the curve when toying with the idea of “taking it on the chin”? Quite startling how history can be rewritten before our very eyes. I must be too thick to understand.

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

[Strokes]

35 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

And I suppose that Boris was talking about flattening the curve when toying with the idea of “taking it on the chin”? Quite startling how history can be rewritten before our very eyes. I must be too thick to understand.

Or hearing what you want to hear.

[January47]

38 minutes ago, The whole world smiles said:

Not to be a pendant but this is talking about cases not deaths (not that I don't think China have downplayed both). Every country in the world has a huge gulf between reported cases and actual cases do to asymptomatic carriers and a lack of testing we currently have a mortality rate in the UK of about 12% based on hospital deaths which is ridiculous because the number of cases is not a true reflection.

 

I read the other day (I think it was that German town report) that the mortality rate will be 0.7 so based on that with 13,000 reported deaths. Our actual infection rate should be about 1.5 million people (and that's not including care home deaths and community deaths it could be a lot larger). So our infection rate could be at least 15 times larger than is being reported.

 

So in a nutshell I'm not saying your wrong, I would be surprised if it along the lines that you have said but I haven't seen anything concrete on this besides what has naturally occured in every country.

And on another around numbers of deaths etc. Population of Wuhan is 12 million; I'm guessing 200k deaths a year. In winter over 2 months I think you would expect to see 42k deaths. So sounds a lot but is what you might expect. As i've said before these figures cant be taken in isolation but need to be compared to a control.