Corona Virus

[EastAnglianFox]

Captain Tom getting his pride of Britain award, wasn't ready for that at this time of the morning 

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

I disagree, many lives will be lost to poverty and depression when this all over if we run from the virus every time it breaks out. Each pathway contains risks.

Definitely, the economic damage this lockdown will be doing will be astronomical if it goes on for months. Think the world be a very different place in a year's time

 

For example, I've just been put on furlough. I didn't want to be, there's work for me to do and I'm happy to do it and able to from home but I have been - so there's more thousands out of the taxpayer's pot and I'm just one of probably millions in the country

 

Let's say the vaccine is rolled out in a year's time and the lockdown/furlough scheme is in some sort of force until that point, there must be a point where there is no way the system is sustainable and the government force people to do certain jobs - like call-ups in war-time. Can't just have 90% of everyone sat on their arse at home all day

 

Or with a bit of luck the lockdown lasts another month or so, enough people are sensible enough to still socially distance to a point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed at any point and companies allow those able to work at home to remain doing so for a few months, by which point herd immunity has pretty much been achieved

Edited 23 April 2020 by Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo

[Leeds Fox]

7 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A highly risky strategy when the degree and duration of immunity conferred by contracting and recovering from the virus is unknown, and the underlying infection fatality rate is still debated. If it turns out to be like a more infectious & deadly version of the common cold, immunity may not last long, so the deaths in the first wave will be for nothing, as similar or worse waves strike subsequently.

 

The only responsible and prudent strategy until more is known is to suppress the infection to get it completely under control, and then keep it so by using test, trace and other measures, whilst cautiously lifting restrictions.

 

Will this work? Obviously I don’t know, but there is some cause for optimism in South Korea and other countries. Australia, Germany and other countries (maybe even the UK if they are able) look like following this course.

If it’s anything like the common cold, there’s never going to be a vaccine in that case. Do we then lockdown forever or try a different strategy? I know that it’s still unknown, just a thought. 

[Mike Oxlong]

33 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

 

Is that young Jobber on the right ? 

[fox_up_north]

Also from a mental health perspective - I'm generally reasonably resilient and pragmatic but have noticed I'm having a shorter temper with my partner and getting wound up by things a lot easier and longer than I was. I cannot begin to imagine what this is doing to people with mental health issues. 

 

I personally feel there'll come a tipping point where people will either just start outright flouting a lockdown en masse or you'll really start to see domestic violence cases (even between housemates) skyrocket. I know of two couples having issues that would normally be fine.

 

Unfortunately, I think lockdown is a short term measure with long term consequences the longer it goes on. 

[st albans fox]

9 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

I don’t trust anything they’re saying, or not saying. Just on the news, there’s a British company that have ordered in enough material to make 750000 items of ppe per week, masks gowns etc, and the government have been notified, but they’ve heard nothing back but instead they send planes over to turkey to bring the stuff in. What’s all that about.

it depends exactly what PPE they’re offering to make. The raw material quality is quite prescriptive on these things. getting good/correct quality fabrics for masks is a potential issue. - if companies haven’t done their homework at the Chinese end then they could be sitting on a pile of unusable stuff. (And they wouldn’t be the first to have been done in this way!)
 

I think NHS are using 16 million pieces PPE per day but that includes massive numbers of gloves and disposable masks.  If the govt procurement get their logistics sorted (and with military Involvement now strategically placed I expect they are), then we can be sending out RAF freighters to Shanghai each few days and bringing back massive volumes of stuff. And by using our own planes and staff, freight costs are controlled. 

 

what could be done by govt is to offer to buy PPE from U.K. suppliers FOB China which means they are responsible for shipping it from there and a lot of money currently being spent on commercial airfreight to U.K. could be taken ‘in house’ 

 

8 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

How much is a face mask? 50p, a pound or maybe a fiver. How much are we going to save on 750000 items? Maybe a million quid. Big deal

there are lots of different face masks .....the N95 cost around £3-50 at the moment. the really cheap surgical type are about 35p but you’d struggle to see the difference between those and others at 50p. And there is a difference between what the different ones do for your 15p! 
 

I would expect a big problem with the U.K. production is assessing if the quality meets the British standards re product performance. Existing production around the world on medical grade PPE hasn’t just appeared overnight.  I am told that plenty of PPE is currently being stopped on export by Chinese customs with companies using false certificates because they’ve set up production quickly and are using poor quality raw material etc. 
 

 

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

Also from a mental health perspective - I'm generally reasonably resilient and pragmatic but have noticed I'm having a shorter temper with my partner and getting wound up by things a lot easier and longer than I was. I cannot begin to imagine what this is doing to people with mental health issues. 

 

I personally feel there'll come a tipping point where people will either just start outright flouting a lockdown en masse or you'll really start to see domestic violence cases (even between housemates) skyrocket. I know of two couples having issues that would normally be fine.

 

Unfortunately, I think lockdown is a short term measure with long term consequences the longer it goes on. 

Hence the resistance to bringing it in initially ....... my missus is really pissed that I am going to work two or three days a week.  she knows that whatever I’m doing is boring as hell but me just going somewhere makes her so jealous ! 
 

They are clearly not wanting to talk about any relaxation of the restrictions because they feel that will encourage people to flout the current ones on the basis that it’s coming.  But  by giving people nothing, I suspect a lot will just begin to lose faith and start going out and mixing with friends. 

[Strokes]

31 minutes ago, Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo said:

Definitely, the economic damage this lockdown will be doing will be astronomical if it goes on for months. Think the world be a very different place in a year's time

 

For example, I've just been put on furlough. I didn't want to be, there's work for me to do and I'm happy to do it and able to from home but I have been - so there's more thousands out of the taxpayer's pot and I'm just one of probably millions in the country

 

Let's say the vaccine is rolled out in a year's time and the lockdown/furlough scheme is in some sort of force until that point, there must be a point where there is no way the system is sustainable and the government force people to do certain jobs - like call-ups in war-time. Can't just have 90% of everyone sat on their arse at home all day

 

Or with a bit of luck the lockdown lasts another month or so, enough people are sensible enough to still socially distance to a point where the NHS isn't overwhelmed at any point and companies allow those able to work at home to remain doing so for a few months, by which point herd immunity has pretty much been achieved

It’s costing the government/taxpayer £2.4b a day just to support it ongoing. Then, what will the cost be when some businesses shut their doors or receive further bailouts? The repercussions could be felt for decades upon decades. Whilst we wait for a vaccine that might not appear. I’m not saying we shouldn’t take measures to minimise the virus’ impact, we absolutely should but we should and I hope we are, planning as if a vaccine will never be available.

[foxes1988]

17 minutes ago, fox_up_north said:

Also from a mental health perspective - I'm generally reasonably resilient and pragmatic but have noticed I'm having a shorter temper with my partner and getting wound up by things a lot easier and longer than I was. I cannot begin to imagine what this is doing to people with mental health issues. 

 

I personally feel there'll come a tipping point where people will either just start outright flouting a lockdown en masse or you'll really start to see domestic violence cases (even between housemates) skyrocket. I know of two couples having issues that would normally be fine.

 

Unfortunately, I think lockdown is a short term measure with long term consequences the longer it goes on. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-birmingham-52389825/domestic-abuse-victims-have-no-escape-during-lockdown

 

Seems like it is already rising.

 

Hopefully there is at least some relaxation of the lockdown in the near future as my missus is going nuts.  I'm glad I've not got to make any of these decisions to be honest.

[fox_up_north]

Yes. Domestic abuse and violence is something I've got very strong opinions of and know a lot about, unfortunately. Even though I've had my wages cut I've made sure to donate to charities that deal with it. I'm not in a position to help at the moment because nowhere is accepting volunteers due to the virus, unfortunately. Made myself available to a few local charities and community projects but nobody's biting. It's a really horrible Catch 22. I can't go out to work and I can't volunteer or help out. Just sort of stuck feeling a bit useless. 

[davieG]

BBC

 

Twenty thousand households in England are being contacted to take part in a study to track coronavirus in the general population.

The study aims to improve understanding of infection levels and how many people may have immunity to the virus.

Volunteers will provide nose and throat swabs on a regular basis to see whether they have the virus.

The findings will help to inform the government's strategy for easing the lockdown.

 

The tracking study being announced by the Department of Health is the largest to date of the population in England, with 20,000 households being approached by the Office for National Statistics to take part in the pilot phase.

Tests will initially be undertaken once a week for five weeks and then every month for 12 months.

Both those with symptoms of the virus and without will be tested - with participants drawn from a representative sample of the UK population by age and geography.

Blood samples (antibody tests) will also be taken from adults in 1,000 households to ascertain whether they have had the virus in the past and have developed some form of immunity. Monthly samples will continue to be taken for a year.

[Kopfkino]

49 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

If it’s anything like the common cold, there’s never going to be a vaccine in that case. Do we then lockdown forever or try a different strategy? I know that it’s still unknown, just a thought. 

 

But the reason there's not a vaccine for the 'common cold' is because its caused by many different viruses and it's not commercially viable because it's low severity so why bother. This is one virus that quite clearly needs a vaccine (whether anyone benefits commercially or not) so there most likely will be a vaccine at some point unless it just disappears of its own accord. How long that takes is anybody's guess so it's clear there still needs to be a strategy for getting back closer to normal and that might mean accepting a disproportionate-to-the-norm number of people will die because it's clear this can't be sustained for a long period.

[filbertway]

I've probably been watching too much money heist. 

 

I do wonder if one thought of the government is to very strict now with seemingly no hope in the near future, in an attempt to sway public opinion. Once they have the public on side and crying out for relaxations to restrictions then they start to ease off.

 

With public opinion on their side and an extra 6-8 weeks time to improve PPE provisions, equipment and capacity within the NHS. Maybe that's when they ease off and start trying to follow the Swedish model of "protect the vulnerable and old" but start returning to normality - whilst using common sense. 

 

 

 

 

[Milo]

1 hour ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Are they connected to one of the main car brands ? If so I’d write to the brand’s UK head office to tell them you’ll be taking your business elsewhere next time and will be advising others to do the same. 

Land Rover, via Blackhorse finance. I did phone up yesterday to clarify whether it is Blackhorse or LR that are charging for this, but the person on the phone was pretty vague. 
Apparently, they offer this service in normal times, with the £100 per month charge, and it looks like they’ve just added a ‘Have you been affected by Coronavirus/we have a range of options’ section on their website. 
 

They also go on to say that my peace of mind is their top priority, which is nice of them! 

 

[Mike Oxlong]

Just now, Milo said:

Land Rover, via Blackhorse finance. I did phone up yesterday to clarify whether it is Blackhorse or LR that are charging for this, but the person on the phone was pretty vague. 
Apparently, they offer this service in normal times, with the £100 per month charge, and it looks like they’ve just added a ‘Have you been affected by Coronavirus/we have a range of options’ section on their website. 
 

They also go on to say that my peace of mind is their top priority, which is nice of them! 

 

Blatant profiteering ! 

 

How the fvck they justify the fee is beyond me. No doubt it takes some minion about 15 hours on low pay to sort out the necessary paperwork ! 

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, filbertway said:

I've probably been watching too much money heist. 

 

I do wonder if one thought of the government is to very strict now with seemingly no hope in the near future, in an attempt to sway public opinion. Once they have the public on side and crying out for relaxations to restrictions then they start to ease off.

 

With public opinion on their side and an extra 6-8 weeks time to improve PPE provisions, equipment and capacity within the NHS. Maybe that's when they ease off and start trying to follow the Swedish model of "protect the vulnerable and old" but start returning to normality - whilst using common sense. 

 

 

 

 

I think we will eventually follow the Swedish model, but I also think people underplay the restrictions they have in Sweden.

Anyone who can work from home still is (over half their population) and no one is using public transport.I emailed an old Swedish college of mine to see what it was like there a few days ago (as I used to go there on business a couple of times a year many years ago now in an old job) after reading some of the articles recently and it's still quite restricted there. The differences are more that under-16 schools are open (but univerisity and colleges are still closed) and people are able to go to cafes and restaurants and clothes/homeware/electronic and other non-food shops as long as everyone sits 2m apart.

I'm expecting that's what will happen to have to work from home in for the next 18 months at any rate.Manditory under-16 schooling will reopen but universities and colleges may not and shops will reopen with social distancing. But I expect home working for example is here to stay long-term

Having that said, I'm starting to feel like the government were right on doing lockdown later because people won't last under it as long - people are clearly struggling and we're only 4 1/2 weeks in. But we'll see long-term whether the death rates "catch" up in other European countries with the UK post-lockdown.

Edited 23 April 2020 by Sampson

[Leeds Fox]

40 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

But the reason there's not a vaccine for the 'common cold' is because its caused by many different viruses and it's not commercially viable because it's low severity so why bother. This is one virus that quite clearly needs a vaccine (whether anyone benefits commercially or not) so there most likely will be a vaccine at some point unless it just disappears of its own accord. How long that takes is anybody's guess so it's clear there still needs to be a strategy for getting back closer to normal and that might mean accepting a disproportionate-to-the-norm number of people will die because it's clear this can't be sustained for a long period.

100% agree. Though when I referenced the common cold in regards to the post I quoted, I meant in terms of virus mutation rather than severity of the illness. 
 

We have an inherent ability to fight the common cold effectively because despite the variation, it’s been around forever. 

[joachim1965]

20 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

100% agree. Though when I referenced the common cold in regards to the post I quoted, I meant in terms of virus mutation rather than severity of the illness. 
 

We have an inherent ability to fight the common cold effectively because despite the variation, it’s been around forever. 

Wouldn't a vaccine be rendered useless if the virus mutates ?

That's what the common cold does regularly which is why you catch it every year.

[st albans fox]

We never actually developed a vaccine for SARS or MERS ......  Infact I’m sure I read that there has never been a vaccine developed for any Coronavirus ..... suspect there wasn’t seen to be any need rather than it being unsuccessful.....

[HankMarvin]

47 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I think we will eventually follow the Swedish model, but I also think are people underplay the restrictions they have in Sweden.

Anyone who can work from home still is (over half their population) and no one is using public transport.I emailed an old Swedish college of mine to see what it was like there a few days ago (as I used to go there on business a couple of times a year many years ago now in an old job) after reading some of the articles recently and it's more that under-16 schools are open (but univerisity and colleges are still closed) and people are able to go to cafes and restaurants and clothes/homeware/electronic and other non-food shops as long as everyone sits 2m apart.

I'm expecting that's what will happen to have to work from home in for the next 18 months at any rate.Manditory under-16 schooling will reopen but universities and colleges may not and shops will reopen with social distancing. But I expect home working for example is here to stay long-term

Having that said, I'm starting to feel like the government were right on doing lockdown later because people won't last under it as long - people are clearly struggling and we're only 4 1/2 weeks in. But we'll see long-term whether the death rates "catch" up in other European countries with the UK post-lockdown.

Add to that a place double the size of the uk with a 6th of the population, whatever happens the numbers should never be comparable.

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Leeds Fox said:

If it’s anything like the common cold, there’s never going to be a vaccine in that case. Do we then lockdown forever or try a different strategy? I know that it’s still unknown, just a thought. 

A very good point, but I’d hope that a treatment for the infection would be developed even if a vaccine proves difficult. I believe this is what happened with HIV? All the experts I have listened to seem to think that a vaccine is possible though it will likely take over a year before it is ready in sufficient quantity, and there is some doubt as to how long immunity will last.

 

Besides, I’m not suggesting that the current state of lockdown can continue indefinitely, far from it. I am as aware of the economic dangers as anyone and would like nothing more than for people to get about their business as soon as possible. I just happen to think that the quickest route to this actually happening is to find a way to control outbreaks at a very low level whilst allowing economic activity to the greatest extent possible.

 

If restrictions are eased too early, before containment measures are in place, there’ll just be another exponential outbreak and everything will need to be locked down again, all in my opinion of course. Not only that, but if infection is raging, full economic activity is highly unlikely to resume as many people would hide in their homes, and the confidence necessary for a resumption of normal economic activity is unlikely.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 23 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Rain King]

Son was supposed to be going on a 2 night trip with school next month. Was hoping to get a refund but they now advise they've rescheduled it to the first week in September.

 

Still seems a bit hopeful to me?

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, pds said:

Son was supposed to be going on a 2 night trip with school next month. Was hoping to get a refund but they now advise they've rescheduled it to the first week in September.

 

Still seems a bit hopeful to me?

Businesses are just doing this to try and keep the cashflow in IMO, saves the hassle of re-booking too.

Edited 23 April 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[Leeds Fox]

25 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

Wouldn't a vaccine be rendered useless if the virus mutates ?

That's what the common cold does regularly which is why you catch it every year.

That was my original point.
 

However, if C.V. remains stable enough during this outbreak, a vaccine could be created to give relief from this group of strains, if they’re similar enough. 

[davieG]

If they found one i guess it would be added to the annual flu jab when needed as they do with the current flu jab which changes every years dependent on what they believe will likely be around.