Corona Virus

[Costock_Fox]

Just now, pds said:

This government is more interested in their media image, now it's coming back to bite them on the arse.

Well by anyone’s standard that is a ****ing stupid idea. It’s not like they can hide a huge new facility that they built to such acclaim.  

[String fellow]

An elderly neighbour of mine said today that the current situation is worse than anything she had experienced during WWII. Like me, she's struggling to see how this new enemy is going to be defeated any time soon. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

More Americans passed away today from Covid than died on Omaha Beach on D-Day. 

Edited 21 April 2020 by Sol thewall Bamba

[st albans fox]

9 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

More Americans passed away today from Covid than died on Omaha Beach on D-Day. 

Do they suffer the same problem as we do re weekend recording of deaths?

 

 

[Guesty]

This is a few tweets about procurement by a BBC Newsnight journalist (click on it and it opens up the thread). I work in the public sector (but not the NHS) procurement can be a right pain, so this doesn't suprise me - in fact I assumed it would be a problem. They work at such a slow speed whenever I've had to deal with them - and they seem offended if you ask them to speed up. They have all these rules in place they have to do because it's public money which drags it out - but they're so inflexible and uncooperative.

 

Once we needed a new I.T. package. We told them what we wanted right at the start. It took four months and endless meetings till we were finally given what we asked for. As we told them at the start: it was the only package that did everything we needed.

 

We can only order calculators from one place. But the buttons never work and unless you're sat outside the they die because there's not enough light to charge them. So it's a false economy because whilst they're cheap, they're not fit for purpose and constantly replaced (and that's just one example). It's like they don't listen to the people who are actually asking for the thing they're procuring.

 

No one actually seems to know why it takes so long. It's like: that's how it's always been and they've never modernised in 30/40 years. Which is okay till there's a crisis. But that was just my experience where I work and wasn't sure if it was applicable here or how widespread it was till I saw this.

Edited 21 April 2020 by Guesty

[Kendal Fox]

53 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Surely it’s actually quite straightforward to forecast how many ICU nurses you would need and they knew they would be miles short. Sounds like a waste of time and money.

I'm seeing yet more new videos of nurses being filmed dancing, twerking, doing congas, etc. Not social distancing and many not wearing masks.

If they're working in these war-zones, why are they doing any of that and why would they still be in the mood to do videos is anyone's guess...

 

If a large part of the reason is because they have more time on their hands than usual, they really should be sent to work in this Nightingale where they are needed, surely??

One thing is for sure there needs to be a massive independent investigation from top to bottom when things go back to normal. Though will that ever happen? I'm not sure.

Edited 21 April 2020 by Kendal Fox

[WigstonWanderer]

12 hours ago, Lionator said:

I don't have an opinion whether this is right or wrong, but this is a great interview. 

 

As somebody posted on here yesterday, the fact that Sweden are taking this approach is teaching us so much more about this disease that it is likely to consequentially save lives regardless.  

A very interesting experiment going on in Sweden, but I’m really glad this guy isn’t advising the Australian government. Once this whole crisis is done, it will be useful to compare results from Sweden with Denmark and Norway, all similar societies but following different strategies.

 

His estimate of an underlying CFR of 0.1% would be fantastic if true, as it would mean that the UK would be all but done and dusted once this wave of infection has passed through, but it is at odds with pretty much every other estimate I have read elsewhere, including the Imperial College one as he mentions.

 

He doesn’t seem to have any faith in test, trace and isolate as strategy, and stated that South Korea had abandoned it. Is that true? Perhaps @leicsmac could comment.

[ithuriel]

We will get through this, time really does march on and there has been worse, imagine those that struggled through WW1 and then had to put up with the Spanish Flu and back then there was no NHS etc.,

 

[Kendal Fox]

10 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A very interesting experiment going on in Sweden, but I’m really glad this guy isn’t advising the Australian government. Once this whole crisis is done, it will be useful to compare results from Sweden with Denmark and Norway, all similar societies but following different strategies.

 

His estimate of an underlying CFR of 0.1% would be fantastic if true, as it would mean that the UK would be all but done and dusted once this wave of infection has passed through, but it is at odds with pretty much every other estimate I have read elsewhere, including the Imperial College one as he mentions.

 

He doesn’t seem to have any faith in test, trace and isolate as strategy, and stated that South Korea had abandoned it. Is that true? Perhaps @leicsmac could comment.

Sweden is twice the size - population wise - of Denmark and Norway so it's bound to have a higher mortality rate. But still, off the top of my head, their rate is something like 14 times lower than ours and with no lockdown!! Something is not adding up with the whole thing.

Also, this guy says there is "no science" behind social distancing which is something I've heard a few other (non mainstream) doctors say. Have to say he comes off as genuine, to me at least.

Edited 21 April 2020 by Kendal Fox

[ithuriel]

Something to cheer everyone up 

 

Edited 21 April 2020 by ithuriel

[Kendal Fox]

Just now, ithuriel said:

Something to cheer everyone up 

 

If you have a few minutes spare, watch this video and bear in mind it was a simulation run in October of 2019. I just find it hard to believe that we had no way of being able to prepare for things. But that's just me.

 

[WigstonWanderer]

6 minutes ago, Kendal Fox said:

Sweden is twice the size - population wise - of Denmark and Norway so it's bound to have a higher mortality rate. But still, off the top of my head, their rate is something like 14 times lower than ours and with no lockdown!! Something is not adding up with the whole thing.

Also, this guy also says there is "no science" behind social distancing which is something I've heard a few other (non mainstream) doctors say. Have to say he comes off as genuine, to me at least.

Sounds like he has all the qualifications of a proper scientist, fully entitled to provide a valuable opinion, but at odds with most other scientists just as Sweden are at odds with most other countries in their response. I believe that they are at a different stage in the cycle compared with the UK so comparisons are difficult. Also a much different population density, etc I assume.

 

He explained that Sweden’s strategy was similar to the UK’s before their U turn 

Edited 21 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Kendal Fox]

1 minute ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Sounds like he has all the qualifications of a proper scientist, fully entitled to provide a valuable opinion, but at odds with most other scientists just as Sweden are at odds with most other countries in their response.

 

He explained that Sweden’s strategy was similar to the UK’s before their U turn 

Hopefully they come out of it relatively intact - health and economy wise. If so, it will beg the question why we didn't just isolate the elderly and at risk groups the same as they did, with everyone else continuing to work as normal. Well, we'll see I guess.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, z-layrex said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/nurse-shortage-causes-nightingale-hospital-to-turn-away-patients

How long is the training to become an ICU nurse? Are they not being trained up at the minute? Surely they'll recruit nurses at some point?!

 

5 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Sounds like he has all the qualifications of a proper scientist, fully entitled to provide a valuable opinion, but at odds with most other scientists just as Sweden are at odds with most other countries in their response. I believe that they are at a different stage in the cycle compared with the UK so comparisons are difficult. Also a much different population density, etc I assume.

 

He explained that Sweden’s strategy was similar to the UK’s before their U turn 

Edited 21 April 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[Costock_Fox]

19 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

How long is the training to become an ICU nurse? Are they not being trained up at the minute? Surely they'll recruit nurses at some point?!

 

Pretty sure you need a degree mate or if not it’s a long period from what I can recall a friend telling me.

[Parafox]

2 hours ago, Thefox81 said:

You are just a hero. Ive said it many times before as well as continuing to say it THANK YOU 💙💙💙

Thank you. I don't consider myself as anything other than someone doing my job and I believe that to be true of everyone trying to do their best with whatever they're faced with in all elements of this situation. I had to take my car into one of the few mechanic workshops still open in my area, for a fault. He has done a great job in getting me back on the road and able to be at work. Everyone plays a part in this. The NHS has just have become more high profile because of what we do, I guess.

[yorkie1999]

33 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

How long is the training to become an ICU nurse? Are they not being trained up at the minute? Surely they'll recruit nurses at some point?!

 

Someone I know’s son is an instructor and he’s training army medics to work in the nightingale hospitals. 

[Kendal Fox]

On 19/04/2020 at 20:22, joachim1965 said:

So we are using a test that doesn't actually test for the virus.

It tests for genetic material from what I've read. Not sure if there is a new test being devised though.

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

A very interesting experiment going on in Sweden, but I’m really glad this guy isn’t advising the Australian government. Once this whole crisis is done, it will be useful to compare results from Sweden with Denmark and Norway, all similar societies but following different strategies.

 

His estimate of an underlying CFR of 0.1% would be fantastic if true, as it would mean that the UK would be all but done and dusted once this wave of infection has passed through, but it is at odds with pretty much every other estimate I have read elsewhere, including the Imperial College one as he mentions.

 

He doesn’t seem to have any faith in test, trace and isolate as strategy, and stated that South Korea had abandoned it. Is that true? Perhaps @leicsmac could comment.

I hope he's probably not too far wrong with regard to the death rate. And the more time goes on the more hopeful I get that this is way more contagious but was pess deadly than we first thought.

 

Though the issue is and always has been that it's a new virus.

 

A new virus which no one is immune to and therefore everyone will catch with a 0.1% death rate the same as the flu will still kill 66,000 people in the UK as a straight up percentage of the population. Add to that the fact healthcare workers and carers will die more than usual than the average person due to "superinfection" where they get infected by several separate people at the same time. And it all coming at once would lead to overwhelming the healthcare system.

 

So an entirely new virus with the same death rate as flu of 0.1% could easily kill up to 100,000 people in the UK given it all comes at once, no one is immune and it would overwhelm the health care system.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the actual death rate is the same as flu and in a few years time once we've all had and it's endemic to the population people wouldn't be able to distinguish the two if you caught it.

 

When it first came and people said "it's no different to the flu" the issue wasn't whether it was better or worse in terms of how it affects us, it was that no one has had it before and no one's body has battled it before. We've all had flu circling round our immune systems since we were babies and so our bodies have built up defences against it.

 

An entirely new type of flu would likely be just as destructive - we thought swine flu was going to be that but luckily it was similar enough to an old strain that many, especially older and vulnerable people already had natural immunity against it.

 

The main thing is that if he's right and we hope he is, then we should get herd immunity at least in the medium term for a while and any further waves are likely to be much smaller and much less destructive than this one (in contrast to the Spanish flu where the 2nd wave was far more destructive than the first and the 3rd wave was still worse than the first too (but better than the 2nd)).

Edited 21 April 2020 by Sampson

[WigstonWanderer]

11 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I think he's probably not too far wrong with regard to the death rate.

 

Though the issue is and always has been that it's a new virus.

 

A new virus which no one is immune to and therefore everyone will catch with a 0.1% death rate the same as the flu will still kill 66,000 people in the UK as a straight up percentage of the population. Add to that the fact healthcare workers and carers will die more than usual than the average person due to "superinfection" where they get infected by several separate people at the same time. And it all coming at once would lead to overwhelming the healthcare system.

 

So an entirely new virus with the same death rate as flu of 0.1% could easily kill up to 100,000 people in the UK given it all comes at once, no one is immune and it would overwhelm the health care system.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the actual death rate is the same as flu and in a few years time once we've all had and it's endemic to the population people wouldn't be able to distinguish the two if you caught it.

 

When it first came and people said "it's no different to the flu" the issue wasn't whether it was better or worse in terms of how it affects us, it was that no one has had it before and no one's body has battled it before. We've all had flu circling round our immune systems since we were babies and so our bodies have built up defences against it.

 

An entirely new type of flu would likely be just as destructive - we thought swine flu was going to be that but luckily it was similar enough to an old strain that many, especially older and vulnerable people already had natural immunity against it.

 

The main thing is that if he's right and we hope he is, then we should get herd immunity at least in the medium term for a while and any further waves are likely to be much smaller and much less destructive than this one (in contrast to the Spanish flu where the 2nd wave was far more destructive than the first and the 3rd wave was still worse than the first too (but better than the 2nd)).

Well I hope he’s right too, but the 0.1% seems to have been plucked out of the air with little or no evidence and is at odds with other experts. His thinking/methodology lacks use of the precautionary principle which prefer. Time will tell.

Edited 21 April 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Sampson]

1 minute ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Well I hope he’s right too, but the 0.1% seems to have been plucked out of the air with little or no evidence and is at odds with other experts. Time will tell.

Yeah I changed that before you quoted it.

 

The most extensive study done so far is that German one which suggests a 0.3% one from what I've seen. 

 

As ever the issue is we just don't know how many people have caught it and didn't need hospitalization or didn't even realise they had it.

[z-layrex]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

How long is the training to become an ICU nurse? Are they not being trained up at the minute? Surely they'll recruit nurses at some point?!

 

 

How long does it take to train a nurse to manage a patient in multi organ failure? 3 year degree, 1 year acute ward experience, followed by about 2 years after landing first icu post to be up to speed on the floor and to complete critical care qualifications. 

Edited 21 April 2020 by z-layrex

[Desabafar]

why hasn't the uk tried some testing to see who has had it like they did in germany and other places

[Sampson]

5 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

why hasn't the uk tried some testing to see who has had it like they did in germany and other places

Because they were done in small particular towns which were known to have it spread there making it easier to do in a small isolated populations. As far as I know it's the big cities who've been hot hardest here.

 

The Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier where they've managed to test 2,000+ particular isolated people and over 1000+ have tested positive for example should give a good isolated population sample for study.

Edited 21 April 2020 by Sampson

[Desabafar]

55 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Because they were done in small particular towns which were known to have it spread there making it easier to do in a small isolated populations. As far as I know it's the big cities who've been hot hardest here.

 

The Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier where they've managed to test 2,000+ particular isolated people and over 1000+ have tested positive for example should give a good isolated population sample for study.

why not a random sample like polls. the carrier doesn't tell us about spread