Coronavirus Thread

[ealingfox]

 

 

Be interested to know how many times this has happened across the piece. I'm sure it's still Labour's fault though.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Jeremy Hunt, chair of the health committee, is asking the questions now.

Q: Do you agree with the Sage assessment that test and trace is only having a marginal impact?

Whitty says test and trace has made good progress from a standing start.

He says it is unreasonable to expect the system to pick up asymptomatic cases.

 

Surely if you've been near or around someone who has tested positive then you should go for a test yourself, even without symptoms? Or do we not have the capacity for that yet? I know it's not the advice but we're getting to the point now where our testing capacity should be going up and up. It's said to be 500k a day now, but we only carried out 270k tests on 1st November.

[Nalis]

14 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Jeremy Hunt, chair of the health committee, is asking the questions now.

Q: Do you agree with the Sage assessment that test and trace is only having a marginal impact?

Whitty says test and trace has made good progress from a standing start.

He says it is unreasonable to expect the system to pick up asymptomatic cases.

 

Surely if you've been near or around someone who has tested positive then you should go for a test yourself, even without symptoms? Or do we not have the capacity for that yet? I know it's not the advice but we're getting to the point now where our testing capacity should be going up and up. It's said to be 500k a day now, but we only carried out 270k tests on 1st November.

Thats what I thought. My mates' workmates son had it, then my mates workmate got tested and it was positive. So my mate and his wife got tested, they were negative but you could see the logic in the chain.

[Leicester_Loyal]

'Whitty says, if there was no prospect of a vaccine, there might be some argument for this approch. But he says he is very confident the situation will improve next year. Repeating a line he used at the press conference on Saturday, he says they have “multiple shots at goal” through vaccines and better treatments.'

 

I hope he's right!

[bovril]

'multiple shots at goal' 

 

Why do I have visions of Frank Sinclair? 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Top advisors are being questioned regarding their COVID death figures of 4000 per day. 
 

[whoareyaaa]

its the surveillance pandemic.

[Legend_in_blue]

Is Ivor Cummins or Carl Heneghan on the health committee?  If not, give them a free ticket.

[Guest Markyblue]

If the r rate is virtually 1 and cases are plateaued why the lockdown. 

[Buce]

10 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Is Ivor Cummins or Carl Heneghan on the health committee?  If not, give them a free ticket.

 

Or maybe we could could listen to the people risking their lives to care for severely ill people?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54777741

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

If the r rate is virtually 1 and cases are plateaued why the lockdown. 

 

Source?

[Guest Markyblue]

5 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Source?

Professor tim spector css.covid symptoms study.

[Legend_in_blue]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Or maybe we could could listen to the people risking their lives to care for severely ill people?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54777741

 

And they're doing a fantastic job.  What isn't acceptable though is the fact that healthcare professionals are being put under immense strain because the capacity, or lack of it, hasn't been tackled correctly by govt for years and years.  Severe underfunding with both healthcare and the education system. 

 

Instead of propping up businesses with furlough, plough the money into the NHS and deal with capacity.  

 

We're going to be left with a situation where the capacity in the NHS is not sorted as the money has gone to businesses to stay afloat in order to keep the capacity in check.  Ultimately, the healthcare system ends up no better off than it started which is unacceptable.

 

 

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

And they're doing a fantastic job.  What isn't acceptable though is the fact that healthcare professionals are being put under immense strain because the capacity, or lack of it, hasn't been tackled correctly by govt for years and years.  Severe underfunding with both healthcare and the education system. 

 

 

You'll get no argument from me regarding that.

 

3 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

 

 

Instead of propping up businesses with furlough, plough the money into the NHS and deal with capacity. 

 

I'm not sure it's quite that simple; capacity is irrelevant without the staff to man it, and there is a chronic shortage which can't be rectified in the time frame required.

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

7 hours ago, whitlock said:

If true, maybe the Tiered approach was working, just didn’t have enough time?

 

 

 

 

 

I really can't see how the rate could be one, especially with everything still open for a lot of England.

Edited 3 November 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[Leicester_Loyal]

2 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Top advisors are being questioned regarding their COVID death figures of 4000 per day. 
 

I'm sure it was said earlier that the 4000 figure was drawn up from us having no lockdown measures, so basically everything going back to how it was 9 months ago. So even with masks, social distancing and 10pm closing time on pubs, we'd be a long way from that figure.

 

I was listening to the tv while doing stuff though, so not 100% sure if that's exactly what was said.

[ajthefox]

This government is simply incompetent and it's no surprise really, given they are led by a man who is not a leader in any sense of the word.

 

From knee jerk to knee jerk, u-turn to u-turn, changing their supposed strategy at every turn. And Nadine Dorries won't even agree to meet a member of the opposition, to discuss how we can best help the critical health workers in a GLOBAL ****ING PANDEMIC because Labour didn't win an election. Righto.

 

If the figures regarding the R rate are accurate and we heard on Thursday that we didn't need to go into lockdown I honestly wouldn't even be surprised at this point.

 

We've already been in tier 3 for a month or so up here and honestly it hasn't even been that bad - I've still been able to play football and hockey and go into my office. Some people flaunt the rules but generally my experience has been that people are generally doing what they can do abide by the rules, and perhaps taking the odd exception. Numbers are significantly down but back we go. Fvck knows how all of our pubs, restaurants and cafes will survive another month. 

 

I saw something on Linkedin about a lad who I share a mutual friend with getting to speak directly to Johnson. It wasn't about Covid but deary me, how the lad resisted giving him both barrels I don't know.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I really can't see how the rate could be one, especially with everything still open for a lot of England.

I guess it depends if cases are still increasing or not - to me, the issue is that if the R is around 1 and we have around 75k cases per day then we will have 500k weekly cases next week  and 500k more weekly cases the week after ..... we need an R below 1 and it takes several weeks for case figures to show much of a drop - remember how slow the death rate drop was in the spring (we can’t compare cases because there was no proper case counting ). 
 

If you take a mortality rate of 0.5% then that daily case count would lead to a weekly death total of 2500 (which isnt far from where we are now so maybe that shows case rates a couple weeks ago must have been 75k per day .....what might they be now??) 

 

french deaths today approx 850 which even allowing for the fact that Tuesdays are generally high is v concerning ......

[Buce]

Protest exemption removed under lockdown rules.

 

Not sure I'm comfortable with that.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/03/protest-exemption-set-to-be-removed-from-england-lockdown-rules

[Legend_in_blue]

As far as the r is concerned, if they've based current projections off data 3/4 weeks out of date as has been suggested, under what certainty can we take the r to be any more accurate?

 

There's very little out there to help understand how the r is calculated in detail.  All we get is, "look at the curve, it's steep, the r is big" that's as far as the level of sophistication goes with analysis and intelligence surrounding it.

[Nod.E]

39 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

As far as the r is concerned, if they've based current projections off data 3/4 weeks out of date as has been suggested, under what certainty can we take the r to be any more accurate?

 

There's very little out there to help understand how the r is calculated in detail.  All we get is, "look at the curve, it's steep, the r is big" that's as far as the level of sophistication goes with analysis and intelligence surrounding it.

I've had this exact thought, too.

 

I think the only thing we can have any certainty about is the fact they don't know what they're doing.

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

Protest exemption removed under lockdown rules.

 

Not sure I'm comfortable with that.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/03/protest-exemption-set-to-be-removed-from-england-lockdown-rules

If we're comfortable with the idea that the government can stop us visiting our mothers, then surely we can be comfortable with the idea that they can stop us protesting about it.  We're a lot further down the "police state" route (hopefully temporary) than banning protesters.

 

A senior policeman announced that he would tell his men to go into houses and break up Christmas dinners.  And the world did not blink.

[Innovindil]

6 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

If we're comfortable with the idea that the government can stop us visiting our mothers, then surely we can be comfortable with the idea that they can stop us protesting about it.  We're a lot further down the "police state" route (hopefully temporary) than banning protesters.

 

A senior policeman announced that he would tell his men to go into houses and break up Christmas dinners.  And the world did not blink.

Usually I'm very supporting of the police, it's a tough job and one I certainly wouldn't want to do, but the first piggy through my door christmas day gets beaten over the head with a turkey leg. 

[dsr-burnley]

7 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Usually I'm very supporting of the police, it's a tough job and one I certainly wouldn't want to do, but the first piggy through my door christmas day gets beaten over the head with a turkey leg. 

I dare say it's been quoted here before, but apparently if the policeman knocks on your door and asks to check there aren't too many of you there, the correct answer is to say "No because htere are 6 of us.  If you come in it will be 7.)

[Guest Fktf]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

As far as the r is concerned, if they've based current projections off data 3/4 weeks out of date as has been suggested, under what certainty can we take the r to be any more accurate?

 

There's very little out there to help understand how the r is calculated in detail.  All we get is, "look at the curve, it's steep, the r is big" that's as far as the level of sophistication goes with analysis and intelligence surrounding it.

They've massively dumbed it down, and vastly under estimated how much the public can understand. To the point they keep telling us about r, which us a bit irrelevant for this virus.

 

Evidence seems to lining up that most people with covid don't actually pass it on to anyone, but that one person is also perfectly capable of giving it to everyone they meet. So 20 people with covid infecting 20 others is an r of 1, but in reality the 20 new infections probably came from 1 of the original 20 people. 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/