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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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Once the Government commited politically to keeping schools open at all costs there has been little chance of a proper debate. My sister in law is a teacher in kent and she says they have a lot of kids off with it right now and staff are going down with it too.

This quote is from the Lancet. Quite a long segment but worth a read. With leicester and the county looking likely to remain in Tier 3 until the vaccine is more rolled out I think we should be doing all we can to reduce infections and I suspect that means closing schools at least for a few weeks and extending the school summer term into the summer holidays and into the Easter holidays. It is pretty certain that having schools open is aiding and abetting the spread of the virus.

 

"Although the study makes a clear case for the need to improve infection control for staff in schools, one might be tempted to infer from the comparatively small proportion of reported infections in children that within-school transmission among children plays a negligible role in the COVID-19 pandemic. However, given the disproportional role of super-spreading events in reported transmission chains4 and the low probability for COVID-19 symptoms and disease among children,5 such a conclusion could be flawed. Two large-scale, population-based swabbing studies have been set up in the UK in which households6 or individuals7 are randomly selected and offered a test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Both studies have shown that since September, when schools, universities, and colleges have been fully open, the highest rates of infection have been observed in young adults (about 18–25 years old). However, the next highest prevalence has been observed in secondary school children (11–18 years old), suggesting that they are likely to be an important source of infection to peers and others rather than a sink. Yet, primary school children (5–11 years old) have been found to have an infection prevalence comparable to that of working-aged adults.6
 
Ismail and colleagues identified a child as the potential source of infection in only 29% of child cases and 17% of staff cases in school outbreaks, again suggesting a potentially minor role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within schools and beyond. However, widespread symptom-agnostic screening among university students has long shown rapidly expanding infection prevalence on campus following the reopening of universities, indicating effective transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among young adults, some of whom are only marginally older than secondary school-aged children.
 
Similarly, a multiday overnight camp for 6–19 year olds that was largely closed off to infections from the outside reported a large-scale outbreak. When screening the school-age attendees subsequently, attack rates close to 50% were found, suggesting substantial within-camp transmission among the children despite its largely outdoor-focused activities.
 
Additional evidence for effective transmission between children stems from the use of mathematical models. An analysis of large-scale contact tracing data collected in India identified a high prevalence among same-age contacts of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 that, in combination with highly age-assortative mixing in that age group, can be best explained by effective transmission among children.
 
Furthermore, preliminary modelling analyses based on data from the UK Office for National Statistics's COVID-19 infection survey found that secondary school-aged children are about eight times more likely to introduce an infection to a household than adults. If restricted to only data up to September, when secondary schools were predominantly closed, that probability was only marginally higher than that of adults.
Edited by reynard
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10 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

Williamson said there was no statistical evidence transmission happened in classrooms. I'm at the gym else I'd find the article but the implication was clear - kids are of no risk. 

 

Of course thars absolute horse shit. 

I mean....yes there's less risk but evidence they do spread it.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/

 

Fair play for believing the government wouldn't lie to people.

Edited by Abrasive fox
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8 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Fixed it for you

Maybe they should have done but it’s not practical. Next door are all in isolation after the daughter caught it at school but considering school kids parents are in general young people, the risks of dying from it must be quite low. It’s the older staff members that you have to have a bit of sympathy for, especially people like dinner ladies who are on low wages yet are putting their lives at risk.

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16 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

The problem with that is one of poverty. What are kids whose parents can't afford a laptop plus broadband supposed to do?

As far as I’m aware some schools were given grants to buy equipment for people in that situation. I don’t know how far that stretched though.

 

Talking of poverty, the hospitality workers who have been laid off despite not really causing infections to rise dramatically might be thinking the burden should have been shared.

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There was a lot of noise that schools were safe places to be and children weren't spreaders of the virus.

 

Schools may be safe- however, outside of the classroom social distancing has gone out of the window and they gather in large groups, especially secondary school pupils.

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18 minutes ago, Mapperleyfox said:

I know four people who've had it and every one caught it from their kids who'd obviously been at school. Small sample size but it's blatantly clear where the problem is.

 

But let's shut the pubs....

Yep at my son's school several classes been closed as several kids had it and also numerous teachers been off with it.

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17 minutes ago, Mapperleyfox said:

I know four people who've had it and every one caught it from their kids who'd obviously been at school. Small sample size but it's blatantly clear where the problem is.

 

But let's shut the pubs....

I’m sure someone on the radio said that over 10000 people have caught from going into hospital for something else. If that’s true, how many people have caught it of them.

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17 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I’m sure someone on the radio said that over 10000 people have caught from going into hospital for something else. If that’s true, how many people have caught it of them.

Quick, close the hospitals so the errrr hospitals don’t get overwhelmed.

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4 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

As far as I’m aware some schools were given grants to buy equipment for people in that situation. I don’t know how far that stretched though.

 

Talking of poverty, the hospitality workers who have been laid off despite not really causing infections to rise dramatically might be thinking the burden should have been shared.

It didn't stretch far enough at all - it was a pathetic effort unfortunately. There's other barriers as well, such as kids living in cramped conditions who don't have suitable study space. It's complex. Unfortunately covid is highlighting a multitude of issues with disadvantage across society, from kids in schools to people on unstable contracts. 

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27 minutes ago, rachhere said:

It didn't stretch far enough at all - it was a pathetic effort unfortunately. There's other barriers as well, such as kids living in cramped conditions who don't have suitable study space. It's complex. Unfortunately covid is highlighting a multitude of issues with disadvantage across society, from kids in schools to people on unstable contracts. 

Well even if the government has said the same as what they have worth workers, study at home if you can, then the spread of the virus massively diminishes.

 

I genuinely don’t expect millions of kids to be bought laptops by the government but it would have made sense for those that already have equipment etc to have studied from home. I know that’s far from idea for the parent but this has punished us all in different ways.

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5 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Well even if the government has said the same as what they have worth workers, study at home if you can, then the spread of the virus massively diminishes.

 

I genuinely don’t expect millions of kids to be bought laptops by the government but it would have made sense for those that already have equipment etc to have studied from home. I know that’s far from idea for the parent but this has punished us all in different ways.

I do wonder what proportion of teenagers, given unsupervised access to a computer, are sufficiently self-motivated to spend all their school time on school work and none of it on games and social media.  

 

I can also see practical problems with the idea that where there are two or more small children in one family, the parents can give all the children suffucient attention to keep their minds on the job.  I've never had the job of keeping small children occupied in front of a computer screen for hours on end - I doubt it's easy.

 

In the end ot boils down to the value of education.  Does it do any harm to children who aren't interest in learning and do as little as they can get away with (there are a lot of us about!) to miss school for a year or more?  I reckon it does.  Probably too much harm to risk for the sake of opening pubs and reducing the death toll by a couple of percent.

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Online classes for school - either part or full time depending on restriction level - have been a thing over here pretty much since this whole thing began. Indeed, I'm working online again now and speaking anecdotally it works as well in terms of kids attitudes as an in-school lesson.

 

However Korea is rather stronger in terms of connectivity than the UK so that makes it easier for such things to work.

 

NB. I'm not entirely sure where the argument about kids "missing out" or "not being able to catch up" comes from anyway - who exactly are they trying to catch up to when everyone is pretty much in the same boat when it comes to work/productivity?

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I'm currently off work with covid (a teacher). My partner (also a teacher) is also currently off work with covid. My class has had at least 7 covid cases. They've all gone home and given it to their families. In school, 1 case quickly turns into 50 cases.

 

As I've said many a time on here, it's not possible to distance in schools, because classrooms are too small, and the numbers are too big. Kids are sat 50cm away from each other, but it's ok, because they're "all facing the front" lol

Edited by Charl91
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11 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

I'm currently off work with covid (a teacher). My partner (also a teacher) is also currently off work with covid. My class has had at least 7 covid cases. They've all gone home and given it to their families. In school, 1 case quickly turns into 50 cases.

 

As I've said many a time on here, it's not possible to distance in schools, because classrooms are too small, and the numbers are too big. Kids are sat 50cm away from each other, but it's ok, because they're "all facing the front" lol

My wife is a teacher over here and thank fook shes been safe. No cases in her classroom but the schools are larger here in Canada and with just under half her class choosing the online learning model she has more room for to distance. There has been covid cases on her staff though and in the school community.  Heck even my kids schools have covid in them. Luckily again my kids have been okay. Knockin on wood!

 

Hope you and the missus get well soon! 

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1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

I do wonder what proportion of teenagers, given unsupervised access to a computer, are sufficiently self-motivated to spend all their school time on school work and none of it on games and social media.  

 

I can also see practical problems with the idea that where there are two or more small children in one family, the parents can give all the children suffucient attention to keep their minds on the job.  I've never had the job of keeping small children occupied in front of a computer screen for hours on end - I doubt it's easy.

 

In the end ot boils down to the value of education.  Does it do any harm to children who aren't interest in learning and do as little as they can get away with (there are a lot of us about!) to miss school for a year or more?  I reckon it does.  Probably too much harm to risk for the sake of opening pubs and reducing the death toll by a couple of percent.

When most other things are shut school

transmissions must be a good 10/15% of transmissions so I’m not sure on the couple of % but under the same argument open hospitality.

 

I’m not arguing this is a faultless solution by the way, there is no faultless solution to any of it. I’m not even necessarily pro lockdown but comparatively speaking it’s insane than schools have stayed open and some sectors have been obliterated.

 

Look at the number of daily cases in the villages of Leicestershire if you need proof of how schools are causing cases to increase.

Edited by Costock_Fox
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9 hours ago, Mapperleyfox said:

I know four people who've had it and every one caught it from their kids who'd obviously been at school. Small sample size but it's blatantly clear where the problem is.

 

But let's shut the pubs....

I dont know how schools have become the focus in this thread as I missed dozens of pages, and when I last mentioned it I was attacked so forced to shut up on it.

 

I have read a few of the recent posts, mentioning poverty, and other issues.

 

The poverty problem is as a result of bad governance for decades in the country, same as the housing situation in poor areas as well, covid has served to highlight the flaws we have in this country.  Typically those in poverty have been suffering the most from it primarily, because they dont have the luxury of working from home, live in more cramped crowded housing, and also dont have the option of not going to work.  But people in more affluent areas have often looked in and claimed its a behavioural problem, the government clearly have that opinion as well, these people are stuck in bubbles, there is people who believe it or not are convinced there is no such thing as poverty in the UK.  

 

Since the virus outbreak started I have not seen or heard anything about addressing these underlying issues, instead its business as usual, and only short term policies designed to get through the next month.  If covid isnt enough to drag the country in to shape I dont know what is.  We now know e.g. many people could have been working from home for a long time, but due to outdated working practices they have been having to attend workplaces to do that work.  But even now the government is fighting against it as they see working from home as contributing to killing the high street.  This outdated thinking and short termism is a big reason why we no longer a world super power, we have simply been left behind in society development.  Of course the NHS is another victim of this, shamed by the american president how we have under invested in ICU equipment, having to build emergency hospitals, and the policy back in spring of refusing to treat people unless they were on death's door (triage by ambulance services and call operators).

 

Similar with schools, we was very fortunate the first wave happened just before summer, so had the school summer holiday period as a perfect time to rehaul the education system, they had 2+ months to plan and make changes, what did they do, decide full time on site schooling was to continue with minor tweaks.  Students were also to gather in university areas, presumably to maintain revenue for student accommodation.  I have had to hold information back as I have several friends who work in schools and they have been told to stick to NDA by the department of education, but I cannot make it clear enough to state schools are "not" covid secure.  I think one thing I cannot forgive is for the government to blatantly lie to the population on that, the truth is they are keeping schools open so they remain electable in future elections.  We are a nation who wrap our children in cotton wool, and the government took a lot of bad press back from the exam farce after they closed schools, they are clearly not willing to take that again.  A big portion of the decision making, especially since June, has been about trying to stay popular with the electorate which is why they flip flopping one month to the next, they constantly reacting to public sentiment, and also leaking out policies before hand to make sure they not unpopular.  I can reveal on here e.g teachers and head teachers have made a lot of proposals to government which would have been far safer and kept the education rolling, but they were all rejected for reasons of not fitting the ideology.  I applaud all people who currently work in schools, they have not downed tools (yet) and are trying their best to keep it going as much as they can even though its chaos.

 

Imagine all the effort and suffering for people in cities like Leicester to get the infection rates down, we got there in the first week of September, and now have many more months of suffering all because a government is trying to stay popular.  It is going to be incredibly difficult to get there again, and I honestly think now its not happening until full scale vaccination has been achieved.

 

I am also not convinced the vaccination will save us, for vaccination to be effective everyone needs to be vaccinated, the drive isnt there in parts of the population, and it doesnt seem to be there from government either, its not been tested on Children for some reason, and if we need to vaccinate on a annual basis, can we do that for 60 million people every year.

 

If vaccination doesnt save us, then areas like Leicester are likely to need a 4-8 week full on lockdown (like back in april), followed by a restricted education system to maintain the low rates, the political drive is not there to do that though, and I also dont think parents would tolerate adjustments. The price of this is a severely constrained economy, high levels of unemployment with reduction in quality of life and life expectancy.

Edited by Chrysalis
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