2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Simmo86]

A loss and a draw for Liverpool and they're done, but as above we just need to that come before their last 4.

[Nalis]

The annoying thing about Liverpool's run is that they only play Man Utd out of those in the top 4 race (and Villa at a push),  shame as they could have been useful in at least taking points of the likes of Chelsea, Spurs and West Ham.

 

Likewise, Man City could take their foot of the gas in the league by the time they play Chelsea 4th last and Everton in the final game.

[FOXSE]

56 minutes ago, davieG said:

The Independent's view.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/premier-league-top-four-fixtures-man-utd-liverpool-chelsea-leicester-b1817494.html

Interesting that in the west ham section they say 'of all the surprise candidates, West ham have they best chance of getting over the line'. I do find it incredible that Leicester are not considered a surprise candidate for a top 4 finish, anymore. It's difficult to get my head around!

[nwl fox]

Not sure why people are discounting Liverpool from the equation. If that shit-show of a United team could chase down a 10 point lead last year then I'm sure as hell not sitting comfortable with a 10 point gap on the current champions 

[coolhandfox]

49 minutes ago, Ricey said:

We know their potential, we know they are easily capable of picking up 22+ out of the final matches. They also have a final four matches of Southampton, West Brom, Burnley and Palace. All four will likely not have anything to play for at that stage.

Not sure about the easy part, I think this seasons Liverpool are now the same Liverpool as last season.

 

They have not hit that sort of form for over a year. even in the last 9 games last season they lost 2 and draw 2 and won 6, 20 points. 

 

They have won 2 and lost 6 of their last 8 games.

 

They are capable but its unlikely.  

 

 

[OrielCaziado]

Be handy if Arsenal turn Liverpool over next up. Just brings them back down to Earth again and another game gone. I personally see the Liverpool defence as a huge weakness and even the Keeper got away with one again last night. Even so, Arsenal stopping any momentum would be nice. I just keep thinking as long as we get another 12-14 points it’s going to take some effort for anyone to catch us.  I do have this nagging feeling mind, that Liverpool are going to get a Man Utd, from last season, run of decisions go their way. 

Edited 16 March 2021 by OrielCaziado

[davieG]

3 minutes ago, nwl fox said:

Not sure why people are discounting Liverpool from the equation. If that shit-show of a United team could chase down a 10 point lead last year then I'm sure as hell not sitting comfortable with a 10 point gap on the current champions 

It wasn't about them gaining the 10 points it was more about us gifting them. Of course still possible for any team to collapse or go on a run and change the whole scenario  let's just hope it's not us missing out again.

[Koke]

1 hour ago, davieG said:

The Independent's view.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/premier-league-top-four-fixtures-man-utd-liverpool-chelsea-leicester-b1817494.html

 

If we come out of the Man City & West Ham games unscathed we will have a foot in the top 4. We then have 4 games against teams in the bottom half.

 

The good news is our next league game is on 3 April at home to Man City. They're still in the FA Cup (Hopefully) and CL. We will have Maddison back we hope. 

 

I'm more optimistic now than I was a month ago.

[Koke]

8 minutes ago, nwl fox said:

Not sure why people are discounting Liverpool from the equation. If that shit-show of a United team could chase down a 10 point lead last year then I'm sure as hell not sitting comfortable with a 10 point gap on the current champions 

 

Liverpool have a relative easy fixtures but they have Champions League in April and remember they've lost against Burnley, Brighton, Fulham etc in recent weeks. I'm on the fence with Liverpool. They have the players to go on a run but do they have the belief and mentality? Not so sure.

[Les-TA-Jon]

19 minutes ago, FOXSE said:

Interesting that in the west ham section they say 'of all the surprise candidates, West ham have they best chance of getting over the line'. I do find it incredible that Leicester are not considered a surprise candidate for a top 4 finish, anymore. It's difficult to get my head around!

It's pretty mad - considering we've only ever had 1 top 4 finish and that was completely masked (of course) by the title win. The fact that a lot of the media aren't really giving us attention or credit shows how good a job BR has done in transforming us. 

 

But regardless, we need to finish top 6 consistently for 3-5 years to be considered part of some new 'big 7' 

[Ric Flair]

7 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

It's pretty mad - considering we've only ever had 1 top 4 finish and that was completely masked (of course) by the title win. The fact that a lot of the media aren't really giving us attention or credit shows how good a job BR has done in transforming us. 

 

But regardless, we need to finish top 6 consistently for 3-5 years to be considered part of some new 'big 7' 

I think it's because even the media can't ignore the fact we've been outside the top 4 for only 1 week since the early part of the 2019/20 season. Its nuts.

[Ricey]

20 minutes ago, davieG said:

It wasn't about them gaining the 10 points it was more about us gifting them. Of course still possible for any team to collapse or go on a run and change the whole scenario  let's just hope it's not us missing out again.

I don't think we'll collapse like last season, but I'm conscious that last season our last 9 matches were Watford, Brighton, Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Sheff Utd, Spurs and Man Utd. This season we still have to play 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 8th within our last 9 matches.

[Ric Flair]

Grealish needs to get back to full fitness sharpish. More than happy for Villa to beat Liverpool, Spurs, Everton twice and whoever else is near us and then lose every other game please.

[coolhandfox]

On 15/03/2021 at 10:51, Finnegan said:

On the surface of things it worries me how much easier West Ham's remaining games are than ours. 

 

But then when you consider our record vs the "big six" this season and the fact we should have almost everybody back by the run in, maybe it's not so bad. 

 

We'll see. The game against them will feel like a cup final though. In a way, I think I'm glad it's at their gaff. 

I'm pretty sure West Ham would rather have our points total and our fixtures, then have their fixtures and points total.

 

I think any draw or win at West Ham would be a massive result for us.

 

 

[coolhandfox]

50 minutes ago, Koke said:

 

Liverpool have a relative easy fixtures but they have Champions League in April and remember they've lost against Burnley, Brighton, Fulham etc in recent weeks. I'm on the fence with Liverpool. They have the players to go on a run but do they have the belief and mentality? Not so sure.

I'd imagine after chasing the title for 2 season, motivating themselves to hunt down top 4 isn't going to be easy from a mentally point of view.

 

For us we have the sting off last years failure to drive us on.

[Finnegan]

2 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

I'm pretty sure West Ham would rather have our points total and our fixtures, then have their fixtures and points total.

 

I think any draw or win at West Ham would be a massive result for us.

 

 

 

Oh sure. Of course. 

 

Unfortunately I'm a natural worrier and I'm likely to be an anxious mess until we're mathematically top four

[coolhandfox]

4 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Oh sure. Of course. 

 

Unfortunately I'm a natural worrier and I'm likely to be an anxious mess until we're mathematically top four

We have all been burnt by last season which doesn't help.

 

We seem a bit different this season, we seem to have a bit more steel. Last season we lost key players in the last 9 and fell apart, this season we have arguable lost more key players but have kept picking up points.

 

We couldn't buy a win against the top 6, the season we have beaten everyone except Man U. 

 

I'd love us to finish in style. 

 

 

 

 

[Jazzy_Jeff]

I have a theory about last season - I think we had a big COVID outbreak. Rodgers confirmed that he had it pretty bad and in our press conference after the Villa game we had 3 players with symptoms.

 

Long COVID wasn’t known about then so possible that players were suffering on the return.

 

We looked leggy (despite three months off) and Leicester was well publicised as being hit hard. 
 

Would also account for how we have not had any COVID absences this season.

 

Just a theory. Could be bollocks. 

[FoxOnWheels]

Liverpool still worry me as much as West Ham/ Everton as they are capable of getting 20+ points from now til the end of the season 

[Gerard]

3 hours ago, Ric Flair said:

Grealish needs to get back to full fitness sharpish. More than happy for Villa to beat Liverpool, Spurs, Everton twice and whoever else is near us and then lose every other game please.

 

Aston Villa have an points expectation total of 53pts. If they overtake us then we've either blown it big style or they've performed like the Barcelona 2008 team for the rest of the season. 

 

For the rest of the season, Up the Villa.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

[Gerard]

32 minutes ago, FoxOnWheels said:

Liverpool still worry me as much as West Ham/ Everton as they are capable of getting 20+ points from now til the end of the season 

 

So you should be.

 

Liverpool are the team most likely to break into the current top four in both the spreads and the exchanges.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.171685558

[turlo]

Liverpool are still the biggest threat IMO and will be much stronger now Fabinho has been moved back to the holding midfield role. Klopp made a mistake in playing their most important two midfielders in defence for so many games. However they do still have several key players out injured, a dodgy defence and not a great deal of options to rotate their front three. Hopefully the champs league fixtures in April will impact their performances in the prem league fixtures around that time and will drop points. 

 

68 points should be enough but 70 points mean Liverpool would have to win 8 of their last 9 games.  

[coolhandfox]

We need to be aiming for at least  70, that's 14 points at 1.55pts per game, which upper mid table form.

 

Very achievable.

[Foxaholic ME]

4 hours ago, Ricey said:

I don't think we'll collapse like last season, but I'm conscious that last season our last 9 matches were Watford, Brighton, Everton, Palace, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Sheff Utd, Spurs and Man Utd. This season we still have to play 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 8th within our last 9 matches.

We could easly come 4th and not qualify

[cruzFOX]

The only thing our players should be thinking about is getting that 2nd spot! Look at the table at the end of the season and not until then. play hard one game at a time like Ranieri used to say.